Impact of Intraseasonal Variations to the Spatial Distribution of Coastal Heavy Rainbands Intensity During HARIMAU IOP 2011 in the West Sumatera Ardhi Adhary Arbain, Yekti Galihselowati Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Indonesia

Shuichi Mori Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan

Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology/Climatology in Indonesia Jakarta, February 28, 2013

OUTLINE Background The Characteristic of Indonesian Maritime Continent

Coastal Heavy Rainbands (CHeRs) Overview and Previous Studies

Motivations and Objectives Datasets Results

Regional Variability (Satellite) Local Variability (Radar)

Summary and Discussion Conclusion

BACKGROUND

TRMM Website

Diurnal Variation

Warm Water Warm Water

Air-Sea Interaction

Pacific Ocean Maritime Continent

Air-Sea Interaction “mini El Niño” Air-Land-Sea Interaction

Diurnal Cycle

Latent heating Latent heating Solar heating

Rainfall “Sprinkler”

Annual Rainfall (TRMM 3B43), 1998-2011

Intraseasonal Variations (MJO, Kelvin Wave, Equatorial Rossby Wave etc.)

Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) : The longest coastlines The most active convective clouds Affected by Diurnal, Intraseasonal,

Seasonal and Interannual variations The largest rainfall

What is the characteristic of Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) ?

(Mori et al., 2004)

Convection/circulation anomalies in the tropics can influence all over the world !

COASTAL HEAVY RAINBANDS (CHERS) CHeRs are widely confirmed in the Asian Monsoon regions after the TRMM era. CHeRs along Sumatera Island are the strongest and mostly generated by Diurnal Cycle (Mori et al.,

2004, 2011) Mori et al., 2004 TRMM3A25 analysis by Dr. Mori

The 2nd GPM Asia Workshop, 2010

CHeRs mechanism could be explained by wind-terrain interaction (Xie et al., 2006).

Xie et al., 2006

CHeRs intensity and distribution also affected by Seasonal & Interannual Variations .

QSCAT sea surface wind La Nina

El Nino

GSMaP MWR analysis by Arbain & Galihselowati The 2nd GPM Asia Workshop, 2010

1998-2006 How about ISVs ?

MOTIVATIONS Most of important cities in Asian monsoon region are located near the

coastline (e.g. Jakarta, Padang, Bangkok etc.)

There are not so many studies of CHeRs over IMC, especially about their connections to multi-scale atmospheric variations in the tropics (ENSO, IOD, MJO, Tropical waves etc.).

Jakarta

Padang

Bandar Seri Begawan

Singapore

Bangkok

Makassar

The cities are vulnerable to disasters caused by CHeRs

Padang, 2012

Jakarta, 2007

Bangkok, 2011 GSMaP MWR, 1998-2006

The study of CHeRs is important for the social community and human lives in Asian monsoon Region, as well as for meteorological and climatological points of view !

OBJECTIVES To understand the dynamics and diurnal variability of CHeRs related to

Intraseasonal Variations (ISVs) in the Sumatera Region, especially over Padang and surrounding area, during HARIMAU IOP (Intensive Observation Period) 2011.

+ + MIA

PUTUS

SIPORA

SUMATERA ISLAND

MIA - XDR

MPR

RAWINSONDE

HARIMAU IOP 2011 West Sumatera, December 1 – 31, 2011

AWS

Hydrometeorological ARray for Intraseasonal variation Monsoon AUto-monitoring (HARIMAU)

TABING

DATASETS 1. REGIONAL SCALE DATA Hourly Global Rainfall Map in Near-Real-Time (GSMaP NRT) products,

with 0.1° x 0.1° spatial resolution (November 2011 – January 2012), provided by JAXA, Japan

NCEP Reanalysis Ver.1 daily wind datasets, T62 Gaussian grid (November 2011 – January 2012), provided by NOAA, USA.

Wheeler and Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO Index (October – December 2011), provided by BOM, Australia.

2. LOCAL SCALE DATA Padang X-band Doppler Radar (MIA-XDR) datasets, with 500m x 500m

spatial resolution, 10-minutes updated (November 2011 – January 2012)

Rawinsonde and other in-situ observations (AWS, ARG etc.) in the period of November 2011 – January 2012

RESULTS

1. REGIONAL VARIABILITY (GSMaP) 2. LOCAL VARIABILITY (Radar)

Data sets :

GSMaP NRT, 0.1° x 0.1° res, hourly NCEP Reanalysis Ver.1 Surface Wind, daily

ISVS DURING HARIMAU IOP 2011 (GSMAP NRT, 5N-5S AVERAGE, 30 NOV 2011 – 1 JAN 2012)

MJO

1 M

JO 2

BREAK PHASE

HARI

MAU

IOP

2011

MIA-XDR

MJO1 December 1st – 10th 2011 BREAK PHASE December 11th – 19th 2011 MJO2 December 20th – 31st 2011

REGIONAL RAINFALL AVERAGE DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)

MJO 1

BREAK PHASE

MJO 2

01 -31 Dec 2011

MJO 1 BREAK PHASE

MJO 2

mean=11.56 mm/day

+

+

+

+

MJO 1

BREAK PHASE

MJO 2

[Evening Rain (12-23LT) – Morning Rain (00-11LT)]

Morning Maxima

Evening Maxima

REGIONAL DIURNAL SIGNAL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT )

01 -31 Dec 2011

+

+

+

+

RESULTS

1. REGIONAL VARIABILITY (GSMaP) 2. LOCAL VARIABILITY (Radar)

Data sets :

X-band Doppler Radar, 500m x 500m res, 10 minutes Rawinsonde and Insitu observations (AWS, ARG etc.), 1 minutes

ECHO EVOLUTION AND DISTRIBUTION (DECEMBER 1 – 31, 2011)

MIA- XDR, CAPPI 2km

Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island

Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island

DIURNAL AND PERIODIC VARIATION

MIA-XDR AREA AVERAGE OF REFLECTIVITY (DECEMBER 1 – 31, 2011)

LAND SEA

SUMATERA ISLAND

+

SEA REGION LAND REGION

MJO 1 MJO 1 MJO 2 MJO 2 BREAK PHASE BREAK PHASE

DIURNAL VARIATION AND PROPAGATION

MJO 1

MJO 2 BREAK PHASE

LAND SEA LAND SEA LAND SEA LAND SEA

LAND SEA

SUMATERA ISLAND

+

AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION AND PROPAGATION

MJO 1 MJO 2 BREAK PHASE

MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2

LAND SEA LAND SEA LAND SEA

MO

RNIN

G EVEN

ING

MO

RNIN

G EVEN

ING

MO

RNIN

G EVEN

ING

Strong W Moderate NW

Weak SW, S

Moderate W, SW

Strong W, NW

Weak SW, S

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS MJO Periods Break Phase

Rainfall Distribution Mostly occurred over the sea region than over the island

More prominent over the coastal and inland region

Diurnal Variation

Maximum signal over the sea region

Maximum signal near the coastline

Diurnal cycle near the coastline is suppressed

Diurnal cycle near the coastline is prominent

MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS Did tropical waves with shorter period than MJO also played important

role to the dynamics of DC during IOP 2011 ?

Tropical waves during IOP2011 :

MJO 1

MJO 2

BREAK PHASE

MJO, Kelvin Wave

Eq. Rossby Wave

MJO, Kelvin, Eq. Rossby Wave

Tropical wave analysis by Carl Schreck NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

ご清聴ありがとう

SUPPLEMENTAL RESULTS

OLR ANOMALIES

Near surface wind variations with the MJO passages (by Dr. Hamada)

MJO 1 WEAK MJO MJO 2

ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, 1 – 31 DEC 2011)

ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, MJO 1, 1 – 10 DEC 2011)

ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, WEAK MJO, 11 – 19 DEC 2011)

ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, MJO 2, 20 – 31 DEC 2011)

DIURNAL CYCLE OF RAINFALL (MIA-XDR, 30MIN-RUNNING MEAN OF AREA RAINFALL AVERAGE, SEA REGION)

MJO 1 [01-10 DEC]

MJO 2 [20-31DEC] Weak MJO [11-19DEC]

All Period [01-31DEC]

DIURNAL CYCLE OF RAINFALL (MIA-XDR, 30MIN-RUNNING MEAN OF AREA RAINFALL AVERAGE, LAND REGION)

MJO 1 [01-10DEC]

MJO 2 [20-31DEC] Weak MJO [11-19DEC]

All Period [01-31DEC]

AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (1 DEC – 31 DEC 2011)

Sea

Morning

Land

Afternoon

AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (MJO 1, 1 – 10 DEC 2011)

Sea

Morning

Land

Afternoon

DC is supressed By MJO ?

Maximum rainfall over coastline

Maximum rainfall in the morning

AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (WEAK MJO, 11 DEC – 19 DEC 2011)

Sea

Morning

Land

Afternoon

DC is prominent

Maximum rainfall offshore

Maximum rainfall at midnight

AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (MJO 2, 20 DEC – 31 DEC 2011)

Sea

Morning

Land

Afternoon DC is supressed By MJO ?

Eastward PPD in the late evening ?

Orographic rain In the afternoon ?

Maximum rainfall near mountains

Maximum rainfall in the late evening

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 1, 1 – 10 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (WEAK MJO, 11 – 19 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 2, 20 – 31 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 1, 1 – 10 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 1, 1 – 10 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (WEAK MJO, 11 – 19 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (WEAK MJO, 11 – 19 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 2, 20 – 31 DEC 2011)

VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 2, 20 – 31 DEC 2011)

WH MJO INDEX (1 OCT – 31 DEC 2011)

22 21_ RMMRMMAmplitudeMJO +=

Amplitude ≥ 1 Strong MJO Period Amplitude < 1 Weak MJO Period

Active MJO (Phase 4) during IOP 2011 : 1 – 5 Dec & 20 – 24 Dec (10 days)

Weak MJO during IOP 2011 : 11 – 19 Dec (9 days)

Wheeler and Hendon, 2004 CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology

Inactive MJO (Phase 5) during IOP 2011 : 6 – 10 Dec & 25 – 31 Dec (12 days)

Active (In Phase) Inactive (Out of Phase)

REGIONAL DAILY RAINFALL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)

Active MJO

Weak MJO

Inactive MJO

HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01 -31 Dec 2011)

REGIONAL AREA AVERAGE OF DAILY RAINFALL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)

ACT

Weak MJO

Inactive MJO

HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01 -31 Dec 2011)

mm

/day

mean=11.56 mm/day

Active MJO

WEAK INACT ACT INACT

REGIONAL DIURNAL SIGNAL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT)

HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01 -31 Dec 2011)

[Evening Rain (12-23LT) – Morning Rain (00-11LT)]

Morning Maxima

Afternoon Maxima

Weak MJO

Inactive MJO

Active MJO

REGIONAL DAILY RAINFALL STANDARD DEVIATION DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)

Active MJO , 01-10 Dec

Weak MJO, 11-19 Dec

Active MJO, 20-31 Dec

HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01 -31 Dec 2011)

ECHO COVERAGE (NO DBZ THRESHOLD)

LAND

SEA

MJO 1 Weak MJO 2

REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (NO DBZ THRESHOLD)

LAND

SEA

MJO 1 Weak MJO 2

REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (1 DEC – 10 DEC)

REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (11 DEC – 20 DEC)

REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (21 DEC – 30 DEC)

Wind Rose Plot of Muara Putus Station 1 – 31 December 2011

Wind Rose Plot of Tabing Station 1 – 31 December 2011

WIND ROSE PLOT MUARA PUTUS STATION 1 – 31 Dec 2011, 06 – 17 LT (Daytime)

WIND ROSE PLOT MUARA PUTUS STATION 1 – 31 Dec 2011, 18 – 05 LT (Nighttime)

WIND ROSE PLOT TABING STATION 1 – 31 Dec 2011, 06 – 17 LT (Daytime)

WIND ROSE PLOT TABING STATION 1 – 31 Dec 2011, 18 – 05 LT (Nighttime)

Windrose Plot of Tabing Station

27 Nov – 2 Dec 3 Dec – 10 Dec

Windrose Plot of Tabing Station

11 Dec – 26 Dec 27 Dec – 30 Dec