Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health

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Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health. International Conference on Climate Change Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee. Content. Trends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p>Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health. International Conference on Climate Change</p><p>Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee</p></li><li><p>ContentTrends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong Relationship between ambient temperature and power consumptionRelationship between ambient temperature and Malaria/Dengue Fever</p></li><li><p>HKO Headquarters</p></li><li><p>HKO Temperature</p></li><li><p>Extreme Records of Tsim Sha Tsuis Ambient Temperature</p></li><li><p>Hong Kong also warming0.9 to 1.5C in the last century. (Ding XL, 2002).Tsim Sha Tsui warming rate is higher than the global rate.Urbanization effect on top of Global warming.</p></li><li><p>Impact of Global Warming on Energy Consumptionin Hong Kong</p></li><li><p>Hong Kong Monthly Electricity Consumption</p><p>energy trend</p><p>1069273917295980</p><p>1117265713945582</p><p>1045283018656149</p><p>1093307819716562</p><p>1194338221407191</p><p>1640390123628438</p><p>2537416424219753</p><p>26654242247910198</p><p>2697410123699854</p><p>1772383622168458</p><p>1202359421137552</p><p>1007305618736555</p><p>1130319818986931</p><p>1057276613855584</p><p>1065299416246285</p><p>1236360321597707</p><p>1361390922458329</p><p>2403417023199741</p><p>26304494244410663</p><p>27624576245510996</p><p>26294343229810431</p><p>2048423823049946</p><p>1230362320698150</p><p>1036333018507397</p><p>1301339818917818</p><p>1255300513376321</p><p>1183325817897479</p><p>1239355219187716</p><p>1540409121629043</p><p>1827433322079627</p><p>26024757235211258</p><p>29184611225011870</p><p>32074998237612518</p><p>22864543216810729</p><p>1218373518888742</p><p>1140368918578894</p><p>1305356515607722</p><p>1374323113197368</p><p>1209373417508705</p><p>1422407618419261</p><p>16784538195310339</p><p>24244870202611170</p><p>32515387215112598</p><p>34505178213212319</p><p>31085381216111823</p><p>2100471418859200</p><p>1435438718198023</p><p>1336407117117485</p><p>1438396416707481</p><p>1333359412506274</p><p>1391387915187100</p><p>1622457317818408</p><p>22675123193110022</p><p>28245339196611219</p><p>32195489196211558</p><p>30855435200411156</p><p>32185702203111595</p><p>2428517819169938</p><p>1591467117258438</p><p>1413455916828193</p><p>1526418315377718</p><p>1575379511666816</p><p>1452407814377587</p><p>1593443015648202</p><p>20065254181910292</p><p>31045858191911976</p><p>34865844193311632</p><p>32495709188611067</p><p>34195967191211509</p><p>24985480183210008</p><p>1773500217368677</p><p>1383430814817333</p><p>1549449515107715</p><p>1516414713437124</p><p>1734434713467587</p><p>1737477315848256</p><p>1805534216739006</p><p>28935867178810748</p><p>38476402190812374</p><p>40256510198512739</p><p>37006134181511857</p><p>27676090177910836</p><p>2122561517319655</p><p>1500474314737892</p><p>1663484314848164</p><p>1666424411517187</p><p>1454435212757263</p><p>1715545416999057</p><p>21325972171510027</p><p>29235972163410734</p><p>36316811178712444</p><p>36946449172412091</p><p>36626463172812078</p><p>27686457171311143</p><p>1991552515359239</p><p>1639530915208651</p><p>1724492213738177</p><p>1858482311958025</p><p>1668497013898211</p><p>2043586915989716</p><p>26156302154210686</p><p>33136797173712077</p><p>40917361180113503</p><p>46167388176514022</p><p>38777056168412853</p><p>32796771154511814</p><p>1863601114819550</p><p>1847558813809009</p><p>1521526812778256</p><p>1799481812257984</p><p>1395546312778335</p><p>22886187145710148</p><p>1885623514239766</p><p>33856921155412109</p><p>39427650165813513</p><p>45607370166113852</p><p>34747288157512572</p><p>34456859152512048</p><p>1650633415199704</p><p>2056563713979278</p><p>1459561213778632</p><p>2004510111278378</p><p>1862546513428871</p><p>1727597213989312</p><p>23667016158811206</p><p>34277677162713284</p><p>40877741162614262</p><p>41478042166714258</p><p>40207737162813824</p><p>34327501156113133</p><p>20446513148010364</p><p>1658596913499405</p><p>1633605212899181</p><p>1852545111278692</p><p>1766601913199506</p><p>1772626213229595</p><p>25707580154112264</p><p>32127739151013387</p><p>40528026151414319</p><p>43818294156715115</p><p>40158028151614096</p><p>36217736146613179</p><p>22216879135710871</p><p>1704614712309625</p><p>1747609411649834</p><p>1849555510628811</p><p>1714592110989350</p><p>21477202142211679</p><p>26307799145612814</p><p>35108014146013845</p><p>44898610154515562</p><p>44128490151115188</p><p>38688167143014085</p><p>32107947141412935</p><p>20116962130410633</p><p>18086478124610206</p><p>1884614211179810</p><p>196057959969343</p><p>1811621211219816</p><p>19866674131310575</p><p>27667749134312765</p><p>34247932134013587</p><p>42398833133815763</p><p>47678838126416123</p><p>41138440140615124</p><p>40598312140514581</p><p>13477231117410613</p><p>20086678103511162</p><p>18226247111110168</p><p>2199578010269621</p><p>1941642312399997</p><p>20817218115011049</p><p>23477684140511860</p><p>34758543138314477</p><p>45769138142116160</p><p>45418861141216100</p><p>40398895143715450</p><p>31787931128313179</p><p>20637469129012254</p><p>18707066127411998</p><p>1923640398111438</p><p>21575982105510194</p><p>2205616599811051</p><p>21667173122211781</p><p>29228243141413933</p><p>34988868132614216</p><p>44028961132215736</p><p>43219165135715805</p><p>43219184140116567</p><p>35198545122214625</p><p>24607814122113040</p><p>19186837111611978</p><p>1989628496010749</p><p>188158209169892</p><p>21617002114011807</p><p>21987523116812221</p><p>30158632128814067</p><p>35868863128714785</p><p>50079663131018096</p><p>48959482135417780</p><p>38668717124415326</p><p>30448485114613810</p><p>18047823109111490</p><p>19837075111011481</p><p>1911647193211277</p><p>182061289189486</p><p>2317723093512067</p><p>Domestic</p><p>Commercial</p><p>Industrial</p><p>Total</p><p>Tera Joules</p><p>temp trend</p><p>15.9129032258</p><p>16.1857142857</p><p>18.5451612903</p><p>21.45</p><p>24.5806451613</p><p>27.9133333333</p><p>29</p><p>29.5322580645</p><p>27.8033333333</p><p>25.164516129</p><p>22.1366666667</p><p>18.7935483871</p><p>16.8741935484</p><p>17.1035714286</p><p>20.2967741935</p><p>22.77</p><p>26.5419354839</p><p>28.3666666667</p><p>28.8548387097</p><p>28.5612903226</p><p>28.1266666667</p><p>24.8225806452</p><p>21.0033333333</p><p>18.4193548387</p><p>15.7483870968</p><p>15.4</p><p>17.9677419355</p><p>21.94</p><p>24.8</p><p>27.1566666667</p><p>28.2225806452</p><p>29.3580645161</p><p>28.8533333333</p><p>24.5580645161</p><p>20.4066666667</p><p>19.1838709677</p><p>14.6193548387</p><p>18.0178571429</p><p>19.3806451613</p><p>21.8</p><p>26.0451612903</p><p>28.3033333333</p><p>29.4516129032</p><p>28.6064516129</p><p>27.5566666667</p><p>24.6580645161</p><p>21.6866666667</p><p>17.1129032258</p><p>17.0032258065</p><p>17.2785714286</p><p>17.8161290323</p><p>24.7066666667</p><p>22.9525271434</p><p>27.9733333333</p><p>27.9096774194</p><p>27.8516129032</p><p>27.07</p><p>24.9225806452</p><p>22.9133333333</p><p>19.7838709677</p><p>16.1193548387</p><p>15.1071428571</p><p>17.9258064516</p><p>22.51</p><p>25.9838709677</p><p>28.69</p><p>27.9838709677</p><p>27.3677419355</p><p>27.62</p><p>25.3</p><p>21.2</p><p>17.3548387097</p><p>17.7677419355</p><p>14.8965517241</p><p>19.7161290323</p><p>20.4233333333</p><p>25.0387096774</p><p>28.7666666667</p><p>29.2516129032</p><p>28.5032258065</p><p>27.6733333333</p><p>25.964516129</p><p>23.0033333333</p><p>18.3419354839</p><p>16.6870967742</p><p>16.15</p><p>20.0612903226</p><p>22.7533333333</p><p>26.0612903226</p><p>27.3266666667</p><p>28.1064516129</p><p>28.3806451613</p><p>26.4066666667</p><p>25.9032258065</p><p>23.1433333333</p><p>18.9064516129</p><p>16.8451612903</p><p>17.2035714286</p><p>19.0516129032</p><p>24.82</p><p>26.7580645161</p><p>28.3133333333</p><p>29.0322580645</p><p>29.5451612903</p><p>27.8166666667</p><p>26.1419354839</p><p>23.1633333333</p><p>19.1161290323</p><p>17.3516129032</p><p>18.65</p><p>20.4548387097</p><p>24.2733333333</p><p>24.8774193548</p><p>28.8966666667</p><p>29.1483870968</p><p>28.309375</p><p>27.8366666667</p><p>26.2</p><p>22.2033333333</p><p>16.8258064516</p><p>17</p><p>15.3551724138</p><p>19.1580645161</p><p>23.0833333333</p><p>26.0935483871</p><p>28.28</p><p>28.8516129032</p><p>28.5129032258</p><p>27.6933333333</p><p>25.9612903226</p><p>21.01</p><p>18.8483870968</p><p>17.2884408602</p><p>17.5941964286</p><p>20.5512096774</p><p>22.36375</p><p>26.6909946237</p><p>27.5955555556</p><p>28.1282258065</p><p>29.1767473118</p><p>28.1179166667</p><p>26.0768817204</p><p>21.4708333333</p><p>18.252688172</p><p>17.2995967742</p><p>18.1930059524</p><p>21.4879032258</p><p>24.5965277778</p><p>27.0235215054</p><p>28.8211111111</p><p>28.8663978495</p><p>28.4366935484</p><p>27.1654166667</p><p>25.1495967742</p><p>21.5240277778</p><p>18.1739247312</p><p>16.0916666667</p><p>18.5</p><p>19</p><p>23.9</p><p>26.9</p><p>27.7</p><p>29.6</p><p>28.8</p><p>27.6</p><p>Temperature</p><p>months</p><p>Averaged temperature (oC)</p><p>Average temp. in 1990-present</p><p>N domestic</p><p>0.05615085620.05354430640.0562923457</p><p>0.05867212940.05631499210.0556183519</p><p>0.05489021960.05281916370.0528975073</p><p>0.05741149280.06007746270.0583170284</p><p>0.06271667190.07208211420.0770841338</p><p>0.08614350250.10230173210.1144582458</p><p>0.13325979620.12780733320.131000849</p><p>0.13998319150.13361908480.1399414344</p><p>0.14166404030.12631265710.1129086855</p><p>0.09307700390.09880159960.0822571643</p><p>0.06313688410.06214102990.0612058272</p><p>0.05289421160.0541785240.0529598539</p><p>0.05488900760.0542340806</p><p>0.05134308060.0538769239</p><p>0.05173167530.0548976173</p><p>0.0600378880.0644617961</p><p>0.06610968090.096726114</p><p>0.11672414630.1210846846</p><p>0.12775052220.1286593469</p><p>0.13416233550.1240494846</p><p>0.12770194780.1175281601</p><p>0.09948025450.0791601652</p><p>0.05974644190.0567843152</p><p>0.05032301940.052892663</p><p>0.0599097440.0567321469</p><p>0.05779149010.0577444822</p><p>0.05447596240.0530205225</p><p>0.05705470620.0603113192</p><p>0.0709154540.0789623852</p><p>0.08413151590.1042519059</p><p>0.11981948790.1189363721</p><p>0.13437097070.1369535871</p><p>0.14767913060.1286352801</p><p>0.10526800520.076895196</p><p>0.05608767730.0551486818</p><p>0.05249585560.0532019153</p><p>0.05416735850.0603973224</p><p>0.05703137970.0529952663</p><p>0.05018263320.053391988</p><p>0.05902374230.0597076036</p><p>0.06964967620.0911325394</p><p>0.10061431180.1201355207</p><p>0.13494105930.1385506473</p><p>0.14320106260.1247478491</p><p>0.1290054790.1095157832</p><p>0.08716586420.077738158</p><p>0.05956334050.0592388451</p><p>0.05545409260.0538635216</p><p>0.0556738550.0540266311</p><p>0.05160865690.0536404252</p><p>0.05385419490.0531135096</p><p>0.06279763060.0781536865</p><p>0.08776956130.0655084896</p><p>0.1093344690.1153130082</p><p>0.12462735680.1144063816</p><p>0.11943938980.113586011</p><p>0.12458864070.10314982</p><p>0.0940028650.0800460448</p><p>0.06159742920.0652795907</p><p>0.05470595070.0539271338</p><p>0.05638486550.0557758779</p><p>0.05819538870.0586785834</p><p>0.0536506060.0530437546</p><p>0.05886047890.0630550958</p><p>0.0741206030.0904721321</p><p>0.11469110260.1260501965</p><p>0.12880579370.1154638254</p><p>0.12004877330.1069931098</p><p>0.12633018030.1103761738</p><p>0.0922997340.0835376597</p><p>0.06551138040.0574261288</p><p>0.05110109370.053547223</p><p>0.05305703030.0531484005</p><p>0.05192669980.0593960262</p><p>0.05939373180.0538233879</p><p>0.05949648910.0551881062</p><p>0.06182565510.0810953558</p><p>0.09909231030.127257154</p><p>0.13176913860.1351573984</p><p>0.1378660730.1231573545</p><p>0.12673402980.1111064687</p><p>0.09477650280.0902649263</p><p>0.07268367870.0658085939</p><p>0.05137866070.0528985231</p><p>0.05746768950.0545644221</p><p>0.05757135950.0557026153</p><p>0.05024535210.0544111757</p><p>0.05926463470.0643686637</p><p>0.07367475290.0913074075</p><p>0.10100905380.1064533042</p><p>0.12547515380.1172335832</p><p>0.1276522220.1212952085</p><p>0.12654640960.0951602685</p><p>0.09565277490.0896130208</p><p>0.06880226690.0666554194</p><p>0.05663833020.0530116198</p><p>0.05257059220.0542830582</p><p>0.05665670550.0537379351</p><p>0.05086296270.0530999401</p><p>0.06229798130.0791375197</p><p>0.07974019640.0992950851</p><p>0.10102457770.1202848804</p><p>0.12474842960.1315267812</p><p>0.14075745560.1401651672</p><p>0.11822284560.1130953072</p><p>0.09998780260.0921884936</p><p>0.05680917240.0667787833</p><p>0.05632127830.0531471104</p><p>0.04843949040.053551043</p><p>0.05729299360.0529152303</p><p>0.04442675160.0552636035</p><p>0.0728662420.0745828319</p><p>0.06003184710.0796439479</p><p>0.10780254780.1293298261</p><p>0.12554140130.1334370604</p><p>0.14522292990.120225736</p><p>0.11063694270.1133758617</p><p>0.10971337580.0928298534</p><p>0.05254777070.0615214545</p><p>0.0654777070.0543161774</p><p>0.04526417030.054031613</p><p>0.06217230790.057882601</p><p>0.05776688490.0531803984</p><p>0.05357863060.066288916</p><p>0.07340303420.0916584918</p><p>0.10631961030.1197877552</p><p>0.12679552010.1286077806</p><p>0.12865696650.1233055929</p><p>0.1247169050.1113816886</p><p>0.10647473090.0902304546</p><p>0.06341327210.0568052278</p><p>0.05143796730.0529831559</p><p>0.04978810330.0536280253</p><p>0.05646513610.0532941033</p><p>0.0538431050.0555024599</p><p>0.05402603740.0623068755</p><p>0.07835604740.0984890026</p><p>0.09792981490.1100432149</p><p>0.12354035180.1175509122</p><p>0.13357114550.1339076091</p><p>0.12241226870.117400559</p><p>0.11039970730.0914768737</p><p>0.06771547910.0583950962</p><p>0.05195280340.0529135797</p><p>0.05231322050.0536141302</p><p>0.055367570.0529285824</p><p>0.05132504870.0584595027</p><p>0.06429106150.0772175193</p><p>0.07875430450.1025643756</p><p>0.10510555470.1281211941</p><p>0.13442132060.1288442925</p><p>0.13211558620.1221430795</p><p>0.11582572240.1043639304</p><p>0.0961221740.082118019</p><p>0.06021859560.0585971166</p><p>0.05413984130.0529342099</p><p>N domestic</p><p>Normalized domestic</p><p>ele_do_ch</p><p>106915491747</p><p>111715161849</p><p>104517341714</p><p>109317372147</p><p>119418052630</p><p>164028933510</p><p>253738474489</p><p>266540254412</p><p>269737003868</p><p>177227673210</p><p>120221222011</p><p>100715001808</p><p>Second order of polynomial Fitting</p><p>1990</p><p>1996</p><p>2002</p><p>Averaged temperature (oC)</p><p>Monthly electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Domestic Electricity Consumption</p><p>ele_co_ch</p><p>273944956094</p><p>265741475555</p><p>283043475921</p><p>307847737202</p><p>338253427799</p><p>390158678014</p><p>416464028610</p><p>424265108490</p><p>410161348167</p><p>383660907947</p><p>359456156962</p><p>305647436478</p><p>Linear Fitting</p><p>1990</p><p>1996</p><p>2002</p><p>Averaged Temperature (oC)</p><p>Monthly electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Commercial Electricity Consumption</p><p>ele_in_ch</p><p>172915101164</p><p>139413431062</p><p>186513461098</p><p>197115841422</p><p>214016731456</p><p>236217881460</p><p>242119081545</p><p>247919851511</p><p>236918151430</p><p>221617791414</p><p>211317311304</p><p>187314731246</p><p>Linear Fitting</p><p>1990</p><p>1996</p><p>2002</p><p>Averaged Temperature (oC)</p><p>Electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Industrial Electricity consumption vs Temperature Change</p><p>ele_total_ch</p><p>598077159834</p><p>558271248811</p><p>614975879350</p><p>6562825611679</p><p>7191900612814</p><p>84381074813845</p><p>97531237415562</p><p>101981273915188</p><p>98541185714085</p><p>84581083612935</p><p>7552965510633</p><p>6555789210206</p><p>Second order of polynominal Fitting</p><p>Averaged Temperatrue (oC)</p><p>Electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Total Electricity consumption vs Temperature Change</p><p>ele_do_ch (2)</p><p>106915491747</p><p>111715161849</p><p>104517341714</p><p>109317372147</p><p>119418052630</p><p>164028933510</p><p>253738474489</p><p>266540254412</p><p>269737003868</p><p>177227673210</p><p>120221222011</p><p>100715001808</p><p>Second order of polynomial Fitting</p><p>1990</p><p>1996</p><p>2002</p><p>Trendline (1990)</p><p>Trendline (1996)</p><p>Trendline (2002)</p><p>Averaged temperature (oC)</p><p>Monthly electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Domestic Electricity Consumption</p><p>ele_co_ch (2)</p><p>273944956094</p><p>265741475555</p><p>283043475921</p><p>307847737202</p><p>338253427799</p><p>390158678014</p><p>416464028610</p><p>424265108490</p><p>410161348167</p><p>383660907947</p><p>359456156962</p><p>305647436478</p><p>Linear Fitting</p><p>1990</p><p>1996</p><p>2002</p><p>Averaged Temperature (oC)</p><p>Monthly electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Commercial Electricity Consumption</p><p>ele_in_ch (2)</p><p>172915101164</p><p>139413431062</p><p>186513461098</p><p>197115841422</p><p>214016731456</p><p>236217881460</p><p>242119081545</p><p>247919851511</p><p>236918151430</p><p>221617791414</p><p>211317311304</p><p>187314731246</p><p>Linear Fitting</p><p>1990</p><p>1996</p><p>2002</p><p>Averaged Temperature (oC)</p><p>Monthly electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Industrial Electricity Consumption</p><p>ele_total_ch (2)</p><p>598077159834</p><p>558271248811</p><p>614975879350</p><p>6562825611679</p><p>7191900612814</p><p>84381074813845</p><p>97531237415562</p><p>101981273915188</p><p>98541185714085</p><p>84581083612935</p><p>7552965510633</p><p>6555789210206</p><p>Second order of polynominal Fitting</p><p>Averaged Temperatrue (oC)</p><p>Monthly electricity consumption (TJ)</p><p>Total Electricity Consumption</p><p>Sheet1</p><p>SUMMARY OUTPUT</p><p>Regression Statistics</p><p>Multiple R0.5245357783</p><p>R Square0.2751377827</p><p>Adjusted R Square0.2092412175</p><p>Standard Error0.6453376055</p><p>Observations13</p><p>ANOVA</p><p>dfSSMSFSignificance F</p><p>Regression11.73884712541.73884712544.17529778510.065723516</p><p>Residual114.58106687570.4164606251</p><p>Total126.3199140011</p><p>CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%</p><p>Intercept-185.890229793495.4800371556-1.94690152340.0775255706-396.040480941124.2600213543-396.040480941124.2600213543</p><p>X Variable 10.09774510260.04783560592.04335454220.065723516-0.00754040940.2030306146-0.00754040940.2030306146</p><p>RESIDUAL OUTPUT</p><p>ObservationPredicted YResiduals</p><p>18.62252441210.1170565239</p><p>28.72026951470.7139866035</p><p>38.8180146173-0.7287675808</p><p>48.9157597199-0.1992466541</p><p>59.01350482250.1089407449</p><p>69.1112499252-0.6669907267</p><p>79.2089950278-0.732891416</p><p>89.30674013040.6776819188</p><p>99.4044852331.0136409827</p><p>109.50223033560.7134885748</p><p>119.5999754382-0.6294894679</p><p>129.6977205409-0.3073379197</p><p>139.7954656435-0.0800715835</p><p>Sheet1</p><p>17000</p><p>19000</p><p>18000</p><p>21000</p><p>24000</p><p>23000</p><p>25000</p><p>29000</p><p>34000</p><p>32000</p><p>29000</p><p>31000</p><p>32000</p><p>Y</p><p>Predicted Y</p><p>X Variable 1</p><p>Y</p><p>X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot</p><p>Sheet7</p><p>Checking precision in % change of domestic electircy in 0.05 significance levelt-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variancest-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances</p><p>set1set2</p><p>9.128.748.74Set 1Set 2Variable 1Variable 2</p><p>10.429.439.43Mean9.447521549.193879395Mean9.20899502789.44752154</p><p>10.428.098.09Variance0.44075555480.5712973413Variance0.52665950010.4407555548</p><p>9.728.728.72Observations1212Observations1312</p><p>9.989.129.12Pooled Variance0.506026448Hypothesized Mean Difference0</p><p>8.488.448.44Hypothesized Mean Difference0df23</p><p>8.978.488.48df22t Stat-0.8582428367</p><p>8.729.989.98t Stat0.8733944631P(T</p></li><li><p>Domestic Electricity and Temperature</p></li><li><p>Domestic Electricity and Temperature Regression</p></li><li><p>Domestic Electricity and Temperature Correlation</p></li><li><p>Commercial Electricity and Temperature Correlation</p></li><li><p>Same pattern for different years</p></li><li><p>Correlation:Commercial electricityCommercial: statistically significance.The best fitted curve: Linear</p></li><li><p>When Temperature increa