IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET: AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET:

SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE UNITED STATESUNITED STATES

Nobuyuki IwaiNobuyuki IwaiRobert D. EmersonRobert D. Emerson

Orachos NapasintuwongOrachos Napasintuwong

International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center Department of Food and Resource Economics Department of Food and Resource Economics

University of FloridaUniversity of Florida

The World Trade Organization Impacts on U.S. Farm Policy ConferenceNew Orleans, Louisiana, June 1-3, 2005

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

Specialty Crops Specialty Crops • Labor intensive Labor intensive • 37% on labor expenditures in fruits, 37% on labor expenditures in fruits,

vegetables, horticultural crops vegetables, horticultural crops production vs. 13% for all ag productionproduction vs. 13% for all ag production

Foreign workersForeign workers• 78% of ag workers in 2000-0178% of ag workers in 2000-01• 68% undocumented68% undocumented

IMMIGRATION POLICYIMMIGRATION POLICY

Speculation that amnesty would lead to Speculation that amnesty would lead to labor shortages and wage increases in labor shortages and wage increases in agricultureagriculture

Tran & Perloff (2002) Tran & Perloff (2002) • IRCA of 1986 increased long-run probability IRCA of 1986 increased long-run probability

that people granted amnesty stayed in that people granted amnesty stayed in agricultureagriculture

Hashida & Perloff (1996)Hashida & Perloff (1996)• Same directionSame direction

Emerson & Napasintuwong (2002)Emerson & Napasintuwong (2002)• Longer duration for authorized than Longer duration for authorized than

unauthorized workersunauthorized workers

OBJECTIVES OF OUR STUDYOBJECTIVES OF OUR STUDY

Censored data: duration of a Censored data: duration of a particular legal status is observed particular legal status is observed only if workers have that statusonly if workers have that status

Duration model with sample bias Duration model with sample bias correctioncorrection• Heckman two-stage sample selection Heckman two-stage sample selection

method: ordered probit model explains method: ordered probit model explains legal status, duration model estimates legal status, duration model estimates spells for each legal statusspells for each legal status

DataData

National Agricultural Workers Survey National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 1989-2004(NAWS) 1989-2004

Specialty Crops: all crops excluding Specialty Crops: all crops excluding major field crops, sugar beets, major field crops, sugar beets, sugarcane, tobacco, and soybeanssugarcane, tobacco, and soybeans

Legal status: unauthorized, Legal status: unauthorized, authorized, permanent residents, authorized, permanent residents, citizens (in order)citizens (in order)

Duration: completed farm work spellsDuration: completed farm work spells

Results: Ordered Probit ModelResults: Ordered Probit Model

Female, Married, English speaking Female, Married, English speaking skills, Non-Black, White, Non-skills, Non-Black, White, Non-Hispanic, Education, Before 1993, Hispanic, Education, Before 1993, Before 2001 have positive effect on Before 2001 have positive effect on higher legal statushigher legal status

Age, U.S. farm work experience have Age, U.S. farm work experience have non-linear effects, but positive over non-linear effects, but positive over relevant rangerelevant range

Marginal Effects on Legal StatusMarginal Effects on Legal StatusFemaleFemale 0.1780.178

MarriedMarried 0.0790.079

English speakingEnglish speaking 0.1390.139

BlackBlack -0.062-0.062

WhiteWhite 0.0540.054

HispanicHispanic -0.244-0.244

AgeAge 0.0080.008

EducationEducation 0.0150.015

U.S. Farm ExperienceU.S. Farm Experience 0.0400.040

Before 1993Before 1993 0.1210.121

After 2001After 2001 -0.135-0.135

Actual-Predicted Legal StatusActual-Predicted Legal Status

ActualActual

PredictedPredicted TotalTotal

UnauthorizedUnauthorized AuthorizedAuthorized PermanentPermanent

ResidentResidentCitizenCitizen

UnauthorizedUnauthorized 79%79% 10%10% 11%11% 0%0% 100%100%

AuthorizedAuthorized 43%43% 21%21% 36%36% 0%0% 100%100%

PermanentPermanent

ResidentResident14%14% 15%15% 70%70% 1%1% 100%100%

CitizenCitizen 8%8% 8%8% 63%63% 21%21% 100%100%

continuedcontinued

Results: Duration ModelResults: Duration Model  Unauthorized Authorized Permanent

ResidentCitizen

Task 0.058 0.054 0.064 0.107

(-0.002) (-0.002) (-0.002) (-0.002)

Free Housing

-0.056 -0.057 -0.097 -0.183

(-0.007) (-0.007) (-0.006) (-0.007)

California 0.227 0.067 0.203 0.104

(-0.005) (-0.006) (-0.005) (-0.006)

Florida 0.567 0.536 0.663 0.647

(-0.008) (-0.008) (-0.008) (-0.009)

After 2001 0.13 0.343 0.201 0.234

(-0.006) (-0.007) (-0.006) (-0.007)

continuedcontinued

  Unauthorized Authorized Permanent Resident

Citizen

Female 0.002 -0.018 -0.007 0.109

(-0.007) (-0.007) (-0.007) (-0.007)

Married -0.014 0.035 0.012 -0.043

(-0.006) (-0.006) (-0.006) (-0.006)

English Speaking

0.047 -0.018 -0.008 -0.013

(-0.003) (-0.004) (-0.004) (-0.004)

Hispanic -0.2 -0.179 0.09 -0.015

(-0.011) (-0.012) (-0.01) (-0.012)

Results: Duration Model Results: Duration Model ((continued)continued)

  Unauthorized Authorized Permanent Resident

Citizen

Age 0.021 -0.003 0.003 0.025

(-0.001) (-0.001) (-0.001) (-0.001)

Age2 -0.0003 0.00007 -0.00004 -0.0002

(-0.00002) (-0.00002) (-0.00002) (-0.00002)

Education 0.004 0.008 0.006 0.017

(-0.0009) (-0.001) (-0.0008) (-0.001)

Experience 0.009 0.004 0.002 -0.002

(-0.0004) (-0.0007) (-0.0005) (-0.0005)

Results: Duration Model Results: Duration Model (continued)(continued)

Average Predicted Duration (days)Average Predicted Duration (days)

UnauthorizedUnauthorized 58.058.0

AuthorizedAuthorized 58.458.4

Permanent ResidentPermanent Resident 57.257.2

CitizenCitizen 56.156.1

SimulationsSimulations

Fixed characteristics of workers at Fixed characteristics of workers at typical unauthorized workertypical unauthorized worker• Male, married, Hispanic, non-black, non-Male, married, Hispanic, non-black, non-

white, no free housing, age 28, 6white, no free housing, age 28, 6thth grade education, 5.8 years of U.S. farm grade education, 5.8 years of U.S. farm experience, and speak less than a little experience, and speak less than a little English, but more than not at allEnglish, but more than not at all

SimulationsSimulations

Evaluate changes in duration under Evaluate changes in duration under alternative legal status conditionally alternative legal status conditionally upon being an unauthorized workerupon being an unauthorized worker• From California, Florida, or rest of USFrom California, Florida, or rest of US• Before 1993, 1993-2001, after 2001Before 1993, 1993-2001, after 2001• Harvest vs. pre-harvest workHarvest vs. pre-harvest work

Simulations SummarySimulations Summary 14/18 cases, unauthorized workers 14/18 cases, unauthorized workers

working as working as authorizedauthorized workers have workers have longerlonger durationsdurations

All cases, unauthorized workers working as All cases, unauthorized workers working as permanent residentspermanent residents have have longer longer durations (up to 19% longer)durations (up to 19% longer)

13/18 cases, unauthorized workers 13/18 cases, unauthorized workers working as working as citizenscitizens have have shortershorter durations durations

14/18 cases, unauthorized workers 14/18 cases, unauthorized workers working as working as legallegal (combined authorized, (combined authorized, permanent resident, and citizen) permanent resident, and citizen) workers workers have longer durationshave longer durations

Larger positive effects on expected Larger positive effects on expected duration for an unauthorized worker duration for an unauthorized worker working under a working under a legallegal status status after after 20012001

Longer expected duration in FloridaLonger expected duration in Florida

Simulations Summary (cont.)Simulations Summary (cont.)

Expected Duration: After 2001

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rest of US California Florida

Da

ys

Unauthorized Legal

Expected Duration by Type of Work: California after 2001

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pre-Harvest Harvest

Day

s

Unauthorized Legal

Expected Duration by Type of Work: Florida after 2001

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pre-Harvest Harvest

Day

s

Unauthorized Legal

Expected Duration: California

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pre-1993 1993-2001 After 2001

Day

s

Unauthorized Legal

Expected Duration: Florida

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pre-1993 1993-2001 After 2001

Day

s

Unauthorized Legal

Duration Simulations

56.2

102.3

64.3

42.4

77.8

48.9

42.0

77.8

48.9

59.6

108.5

68.2

45.0

82.6

51.9

44.6

82.6

51.9

47.1

83.0

59.1

40.6

71.5

50.9

39.7

70.0

49.8

49.9

88.0

62.7

43.0

75.8

53.9

42.1

74.2

52.8

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0

Rest of US, >01, pre-harvest

FL, >01, pre-harvest

CA, >01, pre-harvest

Rest of US, 93-01, pre-harvest

FL, 93-01, pre-harvest

CA, 93-01, pre-harvest

Rest of US, <93, pre-harvest

FL, <93, pre-harvest

CA, <93, pre-harvest

Rest of US, >01, harvest

FL, >01, harvest

CA, >01, harvest

Rest of US, 93-01, harvest

FL, 93-01, harvest

CA, 93-01, harvest

Rest of US, <93, harvest

FL, <93, harvest

CA, <93, harvest

Days

Legal Unauthorized

ConclusionsConclusions

Unlike other studies, switching from Unlike other studies, switching from an unauthorized status to aan unauthorized status to a legal legal status does status does not always increasenot always increase expected farm work durationexpected farm work duration

FloridaFlorida has a longer expected job has a longer expected job duration than other statesduration than other states

After 2001After 2001, expected duration , expected duration increases, and even more with a increases, and even more with a legal statuslegal status