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TRANSCRIPT
f low,
sense,
ONTROL,
emerge,
SEAMLESS AND INTELLIGENT DEVICE ENSEMBLES
WEAVING A WEB OF APPLICATIONS
PEOPLE AS PERIPHERALS
COMBINATORIAL FORECASTSINTUITIVE INTERFACES
TOTAL RECORDING AND TRANSCRIPTION
NEW OS FOR PERSONAL DATA
CYBERSECURITY: INOCULATING THE INTERNET
E3: ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENGINEERED
THE DIGITAL CONNECTOME
ALGORITHMIC ARMS RACE
CRITICAL TENSIONS
Glass Houses vs. Black Boxes
The Human Internet vs. The Machine Internet
The Cosmopolitan Internet vs. Internet Fragmentation
Augmentation vs. Dependency
f low
SENSE
EMERGE
CoNTRol
massive data storage and search | summ
arization and storification
mobile and embedded sensor nets | pow
er and battery design
dyna
mic
net
wor
k ar
chite
ctur
es |
obj
ect &
use
reco
gniti
on
cont
ext-
awar
e ap
ps &
ser
vice
s
objec
t & use
recogniti
on | open re
sources
conte
xt-aware apps & services
automated process optimization | wearable computers
machine learning | context-aware apps and services
high
-spe
ed d
ata
min
ing
and
mat
chin
g
pred
ictiv
e an
alyt
ics
| m
achi
ne le
arni
ng
multi-sensory interfaces | augmented reality | smart surfaces
cognitive computin
g
power and battery design
cloud supercomputing |
dynamic network
arch
itect
ures
cloud supercomputing | dynamic network architectures
high-speed data mining and matching | data surveillance
context-aware apps and services | open resources
multi-factor biometric authentication
multi-factor biom
etric authentication | data surveillance
Seam
leSS
and
Inte
llIg
ent
devI
ce e
nSem
bleS
Wea
vIng a
Web of applIcatIonS
people aS perIpheralSIntuItIve InterfaceS
total recordIng and tranScrIptIon
e3: energy effIcIency engIneered
the dIgItal connecto
me
algo
rIth
mIc
arm
S ra
ce
neW oS for perSonal data
cyberSecurIty: InoculatIng the Internet
ocus
pec.
com
tech
nologyr
eview
.com
lifelapse.com
wired.com
sec.gov
sec.gov
ibm.com
scientificamerican.com
greenlight.calit2.net
futurity.org
pitt
patt
.com
pittpat
t.com
databanker.com
bis.gov.uk
apple.com
technologyreview.com
webintents.org
ifttt.com
projects.csail.mit.edu
taskrabb
it.com
To
Tal
Re
co
Rd
ing
of
ch
ild
ho
od
Cognitive scientist D
eb
Roy installed 11 cam
eras and 14 microp
hones in his home b
efore
the birth of his son. He recorded a total of m
ore than 90,000 hours
of video over 3 years, more than 200 terab
ytes of data, com
pletely
documenting the process of his son’s language learning.
By 2022, people and organizations will have the ability to keep digital scrap
bo
oks
of all of their interactions and to be able to mine records of all past m
eetings fo
r
patterns and insights.
Voice, haptics, and gesture will dominate the next era of interface, but will soon be
joined by responsive and anticipatory systems that will leverage implicit intention
markers such as eye tracking, emotional signals, and other non-verbal cues.
Software initially developed for crowdsourcing and
social enterprise applications is now able to perform
task assignment and coordination roles traditionally
occupied by human managers and supervisors.
Met
a-se
rvic
es a
nd p
rogra
mm
atic constru
cts that
tran
sfor
m d
ispa
rate
applic
ation fu
nctionaliti
es into
real
-tim
e so
lutio
ns w
ill be
the connectiv
e tissue
of th
e in
tern
et, m
uch
as h
yperli
nks were to
the
early
web
.
an
inte
gra
ted
eco
syst
em o
f net
wor
ked
devi
ces
will
allo
w f
or
seam
less
co
nten
t, c
onte
xtua
l aw
aren
ess,
and
inte
llig
ent
assi
stan
ce b
ased
on
user
nee
ds.
wallets, rep
osito
ries, or clouds—
all served by intelligent digital agents.
searchable p
ersonal d
ata containers—vaults, banks, lockers, event netw
orks,
By 2022, m
uch of o
ur online interaction will be experienced through secure,
balance openness and security.
code-sniffi ng technologies, bio-authentication methods, and new iSP rules to
Pernicious code is increasingly infecting the internet, encouraging use of
technology (icT) energy effi ciency.
needs and to improve information and communication
developed and scaled to meet growing device power
cells, and biofuel for mobile devices are being rapidly
charging surfaces, solar and kinetic chargers, fuel
Universal power supplies, wireless charging, connectio
n pathways
ove
r oth
ers.
networks w
ith fo
rmatio
ns des
igne
d to
priv
ilege
cer
tain
netw
ork phenomena, such
as
wiri
ng to
geth
er
engineered to ta
ke adva
ntag
e of
neu
ral-l
ike
front
ier
networks arc
hitectu
re w
ill be
del
iber
atel
y
agai
nst o
ther
pre
dict
ive
algo
rith
ms.
as th
ey c
hang
e th
eir
own
code
s in
ord
er t
o c
om
pet
e
but w
ill a
lso
crea
te e
mer
gent
and
vo
lati
le p
rop
erti
es
mea
ning
ful p
atte
rns
of h
uman
and
mac
hine
beh
avio
r,
alg
orith
ms
will
har
ness
mas
sive
dat
a to
gen
erat
e
lifelaPSe Lifelapse is an iPhone application. Once the user puts
the phone in a special pocket, it automatically takes pictures every 30
seconds. These are then compiled as tim
e-lapse videos to be shared.
eMoTion-deTecTing SMaRTPhone Samsung is prototyping
new software that can infer a smartphone users’ mental state from
behaviors such as typing speed, use of backspaces and deletes,
and shaking.
ocUSPec This powerful, low-cost gesture recognition technology
works across platforms allowing it to be integrated into everything
from a TV to a laptop.TaSkRaBBiT Taskrabbit allows users to
offer payment to a crowd of screened helpers
for help with chores.
SoylenT Soylent, developed by Michael
Bernstein at MIT, embeds crowdsourced editing
and proofreading functions directly into MS Word,
allowing users to receive input from hundreds,
in real-time, while drafting a document.
WeB
inTe
nTS
Thi
s fra
mew
ork
lets
use
rs
enab
le th
eir I
nter
net a
pplic
atio
ns to
com
mun
icat
e w
ith a
nd is
sue
com
man
ds
to e
ach
othe
r, lik
e Tw
itter
or D
elic
ious
.
aiR
Pl
ay
MiR
Ro
Rin
g A
irpla
y M
irror
ing
le
ts y
ou w
irele
ssly
str
eam
from
one
or
mor
e
iPad
s or
iPho
nes
to y
our
HD
TV t
hrou
gh a
n
Ap
ple
TV.
Mid
aTa
Mid
aTa
is a voluntary program that the U
K G
overnment
Mid
aTa
Mid
ata is a voluntary program
that the UK
government is
undertaking w
ith industry, giving consum
ers increasing access
to their personal d
ata in a portab
le, electronic format.
daTa
Ba
nk
eR
The Facebook Privacy Informer App calculates risk
metrics based on how
an individual has conf gured Facebook privacy
settings and generates a f nal number that rates personal privacy risk.
PiTTPaTT PittPatt provides a facial recognition software develop-
ment kit (SDK) that allows anyone to integrate this capability more
easily into their products and services.
ScaVenging PoWeR fRoM The aiR
Georgia Tech researchers are developing
printable, f exible devices that can scavenge
ambient electromagnetic energy and convert
and store the power.
gReenlighT Calit2 researchers developed
a system of networking architectures,
sensors nets, quantitative software analysis,
server arrays, and visualization tools for greater
eff ciency and reduced carbon footprints.
UncoVeRing P
RoPeRTieS o
f
cogniTiVe neTW
oRkS Rec
ent r
esea
rch
suggests th
at the brain’s
neurons alig
n to fo
rm
a 3D grid.
cog
niTiV
e co
MPU
Tin
g I
BM is
curre
ntly
mod
eling
the
brai
n sy
stem
s of
com
plex
ani
mal
s as
a p
recu
rsor
to w
hat i
t is
callin
g “c
ogni
tive
com
putin
g,” o
r com
puta
tion
prop
ertie
s lev
erag
ed b
y th
e br
ain.
Po
lyW
oR
ld T
his
is o
ne o
f sev
eral
pla
tform
s
desi
gned
to c
reat
e an
env
ironm
ent f
or A
I to
evol
ve n
ew a
ppro
ache
s an
d ca
pabi
litie
s.
PR
ed
icT
iVe
So
fT
Wa
Re
diS
RU
PT
S
fin
an
cia
l M
aR
ke
TS
R
egul
ator
s ha
ve
foun
d au
tom
ated
tra
din
g so
ftw
are
to b
e
a ke
y fa
ctor
in s
ome
extr
eme
mar
ket
f uct
uatio
ns, i
nclu
din
g a
“f a
sh c
rash
” in
201
0.
digiTal anTS: STigMeRgic cyBeRSecURiTy Programs
wander through computers searching out and swarming viruses.They
leave “digital pheromones” when they sense a problematic behavior.
if T
hiS, T
hen ThaT T
his se
rvice allows u
sers
to cr
eate
”triggers
” across
platform
s, “I w
rite a
twee
t, post
it on Fac
ebook and th
en share th
e
“trigg
ers”
so fr
iends c
an use th
em too.”
Th
e S
aM
SU
ng
SM
aR
T W
ind
oW
The
Sam
sung
Sm
art W
indo
w is
a tr
ansp
aren
t LC
D
whi
ch tu
rns
a re
gula
r win
dow
in y
our h
ouse
into
a o
n-de
man
d to
uch-
scre
en in
terfa
ce.
lEGENdThis map highlights the technological changes occuring with the Internet and how they will transform the human Internet experience in the coming decade. It contains seven foundational technology forecasts and ten combinatorial forecasts. The foundational technology forecasts are divided into two clusters: platform and workload, located along either side of the fgure. The combinatorial forecasts are arrayed around the human fgure and divided into four functional potentials: f low, SENSE,
oNTRol and EMERGE.
f o u n d at I o n a l t e c h n o l o g y f o r e c a S t S
Fundamental changes are occurring in the way the Internet functions. Forecasts for the core computational and network architectures for mobile and embedded systems are shown in the platform clusters. New and powerful functionalities for networked computing systems are forecasted in the workload clusters.
c o m b I n at o r I a l f o r e c a S t S
In a messy and complex world where accelerating change creates technological disruptions, dynamic social reconfgurations, and rapid organizational innovation, linear extrapolation of technological trends is insuffcient. Instead, technological change will be driven by the combination and recombination of foundational elements. Combinatorial forecasting, then, involves the systematic intermingling of distinct technology trends with the goal of perceiving alternative outcomes that could occur when these elements are mixed together.
t e c h n o l o g y e n a b l e r S
Each combinatorial forecast contains a list of several core technologies that are changing conditions of possibility. These technological trends or advancements enable the shifts described in the forecasts.
S I g n a l S
Signals support each forecast with concrete examples from the world today. These include new technologies, research, businesses, or other endeavors that demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
f o u r p o t e n t I a l S
f lowFunctional assets are being fragmented and recombined into new arrays to provide more relevant, effcient, and personalized service.
SENSEComputational interfaces are becoming more ubiquitous, human-centric, and invisible.
oNTRolBoundaries are diffcult to maintain with the Internet, but new forms of control will aid in the struggle for secure transactions and private interactions.
EMERGEMachine learning will advance quickly, unleashed from human control and allowed to develop in unexpected ways.
To
Tal
Re
co
Rd
ing
of
ch
ild
ho
od
Cognitive scientist D
eb
Roy installed 11 cam
eras and 14 microp
hones in his home b
efore
the birth of his son. He recorded a total of m
ore than 90,000 hours of
video over 3 years, more than 200 terab
ytes of data, com
pletely
documenting the process of language learning.
neW oS for perSonal data
repo
sitories, o
r cloud
s, all served by intelligent digital agents.
chable p
ersonal d
ata containers—vaults, banks, lockers, event netw
orks, wallets,
By 2022, m
uch of o
ur online interaction will be experienced through secure, sear
platformnetworks
Re-engineering The network: Quality Performance
Wireless networks: Dynamic Confgurations
computational cloudcloud-Served Supercomputing: New Operating Systems
open Resources: Data, Apps, and Services
exotic hardware: Biological and Quantum
embedded and local systemsSmart Surfaces: Scalable, Ubiquitous, and Invisible
Smart Spaces: Sensing, Recording, and Learning
coordinated devices: Heterogeneous, Connected, and Adaptable
mobile hardwareMobile Sensor Platforms: Pervasive and Powerful
Mobile computing: Handhelds and Wearable Computing
Personal Robots: Drones, Swarms, and Anthropomorphic Assistants
Workload
rendering and simulationUtilizing Big data: Simulations, Models,
and Visualizations
Video Web: Synthetic, Interactive, and Hyperlinked
dimensionality: 3D, Immersive, and Holographic
mining and reasoningautonomous Processes: Machine-to-Machine
contextual assistance: Analytics, Optimization, and Validation
Understanding humans: Machine Learning
sensing and recognitionhigh-Resolution Sensing: Motion,
Volume, and Activity
Real-World interaction: Recognition, Discovery, and Filtering
networksA cascade of fundamental changes in net-
work software and hardware will greatly improve
connections.
computational cloud-
tational cloud of super intelligent services, including -
cations with machine intelligence and learning.
embedded and local systems
displays of every size, sensors, actuators, and
mobile hardwareA vast and complex array of connected
pervasive in human experience and environments in unprecedented ways.
FOUNDATIONAL TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS
rendering and simulation
applications outsourced to the cloud, devices’
rich user interfaces and graphics. Advances in rendering, simulations, and modeling will make displays a major driver of CPU chip performance, with photorealistic simulations dominating network device usage.
mining and reasoningMachine intelligence and learning will
applications, automating a vast amount of what was once human work.
sensing and recognitionDevices equipped with sensor software
anticipating user needs.
PLATFORM CLUSTER WORKLOAD CLUSTER
HOW TO USE THIS MAP:Thinking Systematically about the Future
F LOW, SENSE, ONTROL EMERGE.
Working with this MapEXPLORE F LOW, SENSE,
ONTROL EMERGE
FOCUS
DRILL DOWN
CONSIDER
RE-COMBINEcreate
Institute for the Future
Technology Horizons Program
Acknowledgements