IDEAImproving Damage assessments to Enhance cost-benefit Analyses

Call Identifier: Prevention 1. Actions on the economics of investing in disaster risk prevention, including costs and benefits of risk prevention measures, and the “risk-proofing" of public and/or private investments and strategies.

Scira Menoni and Francesco Ballio – Politecnico di Milano on behalf of the IDEA Consortium

Partners Project area Contribution to project's results

Polimi - CoordinatorRisk and vulnerability assessment for a variety of natural hazards and na-tech

- Coordination; - Contributing to the Umbria case studies

Umbria Region

The Civil Protection Department of the Umbria Region is responsible for alerting, rescuing, planning and preparing for emergencies

- carrying out the case studies in the Umbria Region; - providing expertise as stakeholders directly involved in post-event damage assessment

Agencia Estatal ConsejoSuperior de InvestigacionesCientíficas (CSIC)

Risk assessment and support to decision makers in the field of seismic risk

- Carrying out the case study of the Lorca municipality case in Spain; -working on cost benefit analysis and public health issues related to disasters also through to the sub-contract with the University of Oviedo

Oxford BrooksFlood risk assessment; post-flood damage assessment particularly for industries and economic activities

- Taking care of the case study of the Severn flood 2007; - developing strong connections with the Association of British Insurers and Willis-Re on issues related on insurance and post-flood compensation in the UK

Departament d'Interior -Generalitat de Catalunya

The Civil Protection Department of the Generalitat de Catalunya is responsible for alerting, rescuing, planning and preparing for emergencies

- Contributing to generalizing the findings of the Lorca case study to other cases in Spain; - Input as responsible stakeholders for post-disaster damage assessment

Project partners in the Consortium: 4 partners + the coordinator from 3 Member States; 3 Research Institutions and 2 Regional Civil Protection Authorities

Budget of the action

Objectives of the IDEA project

1. Support more effective mitigation measures in the aftermath of a disaster, by analysing damage data according to a forensic perspective.

2. Show how better data may better inform pre-event risk modelling, so as to develop more reliable cost benefit analysis of measures that are taken today to prevent a future disaster.

3. Focus on damage to critical infrastructures and economic activities as key to identify the impact of a disaster on the economy of the affected region.

4. Develop tools that will enable public administrations to manage damage and losses data for multiple purposes: compensation, forensic investigation to guide recovery, better risk assessments for future events, to feed more reliable cost benefit analyses of mitigation measures.

Rationale and motivation of the IDEA project

The proposal is aimed at improving current practices in data collection, storing, and use to support enhanced and more reliable cost benefit analyses in the field of natural hazards mitigation. The project aims at having an impact on the international initiatives currently ongoing on the issue, for example the IRDR with the Peril classification and particularly the JRC technical group working on the improvement of losses databases at the European level.

Rationale and motivation of the IDEA projectThe framework below is based on the one developed by the JRC technical working group (De Groeve, K. Pljansek, D. Erlich, Recording disaster losses, JRC, 2013)

Compensation

Reimbursement

Local officials/insurers

Fair allocation

Regional/nationalofficers, insurancecompanies

EU Solidarity Fund in case of activation

Loss Accounting

Recording the impact

Local policy (city)

Measuring trends

International policy (UN, donors, EU Policy-DG ECHO)

Disaster forensic

Identify the cause

Local expert teams

Learning from the past

National expert teams

International experttemas (PDNA)

Risk modelling

Modelling future losses

Local research/policy

DRR and mitigation

National research/policy (Regional, GEM)

International initiatives(GEM, GAR), EU policy

National policy (National Adminsitrations)

Glo

bal

user

sN

atio

nal

user

sL

ocal

us

ers

Obj

e-ct

ives

M

otiv

a-tio

n

Rationale and motivation of the IDEA projectConceptual link between pre- and post- event damage assessment and cost benefit analysis of both pre- and post- disaster mitigation measures (prevention and recovery)

t

EVENT: direct physicaldamage, systemic «higherorder» damage, long termdamage

Exposure in quantitative termsand values of exposed systems

HazardPhysical characteristicsof the dangerousphenomena

PRA (for fewvariables) and multiscaledeterministic scenario

Complete event reportand damage database at regional and nationalscale

VulnerabilityPhysical and systemicof exposed elements

Cost benefit analysisof preventionmeasures

Cost benefit analysisof mitigationmeasures in recovery

Rationale and motivation of the IDEA project: having an impact

The project aims at having an impact on the international initiatives currently ongoing on the issue, for example the IRDR with the Peril classification and particularly the JRC technical group working on the improvement of losses databases at the European level.

The project will apply methodologies and IT systems partially developed in previous work with public administrations and partially to be developed in the next two years to case study areas (Lorca, Catalunya, Umbria Region, Severn Catchment), with the aim of having an impact in the areas and the countries of the latter (UK, Spain, Italy).

The project ambition is to share with many more stakeholders of both involved countries and other Member States the developed methodologies and IT systems to support enhanced damage and losses data collection and analysis practices.

EVENT

2-3 d20 d

90 d

Buildings cadastrial analysis:- Buildings map- Buildings vulnerability- Monetray value of exposed buildings

Field survey simplified form A -affected buildings

Field survey full residential form -Direct damage-Indirect damage

Private estimate-Monetary value of damage

Municipality

Surveyour

Private Citizen

Civil protection

Field survey full residential form (discretionary)-Indirect damage

Estimate-Monetary value of indirect damage

CP Consultancy Service

6 m

12 m

Task A Preliminary task

Identification of key stakeholders; selection of types of damages and losses to consider in the project; critical assessment of currently used procedures for damge data collection; collection of data for the case study areas.

Task B Linking collected data to forensics

a. Forensic investigation of the events for which data is available in the case study areas.

b. Cost benefit analyses of some proposed recovery investments

Task C. Linking collected data to the financial forms of compensation

a. Description of the use of damage and losses data for compensation under different financial arrangements.

b. Workshop with stakeholders to assess if and how data can satisfy both compensation requirements and forensic investigation

Task D. How to link post-damage estimation to pre-event risk assessment

a. Comparing post-event damage data with pre-event risk scenarios.

b. Cost/benefit analyses of a selection of mitigation measures that could have been implemented before the impact.

Task E. Design of the architecture of the information system to collect, store, manage, and query damage and losses data

Designing the conceptual architecture of an information system structuring the logic flow of data to be collected, stored, memorised, queried and analysed by different stakeholeders to support the generation of full event reports, damage compensation, forensic investigation, and risk modelling. Key recommendations to the EU Commission on the feasibility of proposed changes in damage data collection procedures and tools.

Task

F P

ublic

ityW

orks

hops

that

will

be

orga

nise

d w

ith s

take

hold

ers

rele

vant

in th

e da

mag

e an

d lo

sses

dat

a co

lelc

tion

and

man

agem

ent a

t diff

ernt

sta

ges o

f the

pro

ject

; pro

ject

w

ebsi

te.

Task

G M

anag

mee

ntM

anag

emet

n of

he

proj

ect;

prod

uctio

n of

repo

rts a

nd m

eetin

gs m

inut

es

Project structure: tasks in the green boxes relate to activities sustaining the entire project.

Task ID

Start Date

End Date Actions Deliverables

Action A.1 Identifying key stakeholders. Interviews and small groups meetings

Del. A.1 Technical note characterising stakeholders to be involved in the project (CSIC)

Action A.2 Defining the current state of data collection procedures in meetings with stakeholder

Del. A.2 Technical report on existing practices for data collection (Catalunya-CP)

Action A.3 Critical analysis of collected and available data in the case studies Del. A.3 Database of available data for case study 1 (Umbria-CP)

Del. A.4 Database of available data for case study 2 (Catalunya-CP)Del. A.5 Database of available data for case study 3 (OBU)

Action B.1 Forensic investigation of damage to multiple sectors in the case study area in Umbria, Italy

Del. B.1 Document describing forensic assessment of damage to multiple sectors in the case study area in Italy (Umbria-CP)

Action B.2 Forensic investigation of damage to multiple sectors in the case study area in Spain. Generalization to other cases in Spain

Del. B.2 Document describing forensic assessment of damage to multiple sectors in the case study area in Spain (CSIC)

Action B.3 Forensics investigation of damage to business and lifelines in the UK case study

Del. B.3 Document exploring the possibility of implementing forensic investigation in Spain: changes in current practices (CSIC)

Action B.4 Defining needs of disaster forensic investigation in meetings with utilities companies and public authorities

Del. B.4 Document describing forensic assessment of damage to business and the utilities sector in the case study area in UK (OBU)Del. B.5 Brief of meetings with utilities companies and public authorities on needs for disaster forensic (Umbria-CP)

Action C.1 Structuring damage data to multiple sectors for compensation purposes in Italy

Del. C.1 Technical report on basic requirements of reporting for compensation purpose in Italy. Link with forensic investigation needs. (POLIMI)

Action C.2 Structuring damage data to multiple sectors for compensation purposes in Spain

Del. C.2 Document describing the use of damage data for compensation and recovery purpose in case study 2 (Catalunya-CP)

Action C.3 Structuring damage data to multiple sectors for compensation purposes in the UK

Del. C.3 Document on strengths and weaknesses of the Spanish compensation system. Linking compensation and disaster forensic needs. (Catalunya-CP)

Action C.4 Identification of key procedural and legal aspects that permit to link disaster forensics to data collection for compensation purposes

Del. C.4 Document describing damage assessment procedures and outcomes carried out by insurance companies in case study 3 (OBU)Del. C.5 Document on the British compensation system and relative use of damage data. Link with forensic investigation needs (OBU)Del. C.6 Document including recommendations and suggestions for the harmonisation process between forensics and compensation purposes for Europe (POLIMI)

PRELIMINARY TASK

LINKING COLLECTED DATA TO THE

FINANCIAL FORMS OF COMPENSATION

01/01/2016 31/07/2016C

Task Title

A 01/01/2015 30/06/2015

B LINKING COLLECTED DATA TO FORENSICS 01/07/2015 31/01/2016

Project structure: deliverables in the last column, this and the following slide

Task ID

Start Date

End Date Actions Deliverables

Action D.1 Comparing post-event damage estimation and pre-event damage assessment in the Umbria case. Cost benefit analysis of post-event risk mitigation interventions (and lack of)

Del. D.1 Technical report on data requirements for flood risk modelling (POLIMI)

Action D.2 Comparison between post-event damage estimation and pre-event damage assessment to different sectors in Lorca. Cost-benefit analysis of potential retrofitting before the event

Del D.2 Technical report on data requirements for seismic risk modelling: towards full event scenarios (CSIC)

Action D.3 Assessing the cost/benefit ratio of business continuity measures in different economic activities

Del D.3 Mitigation measures to increase businesses resilience (OBU)Del D.4 Cost-benefit analysis of mitigation measures to pilot firms/infrastructures in UK and Italy (OBU)

Action E.1 Structuring and defining post-disaster damage meta-data

Del E.1 Technical report on post-disaster damage meta-data (Catalunya-CP)

Action E.2 Structuring the information system (IT) structure of damage and loss data

Del E.2 Concept for an integrated information system for disaster data collection, storage and analysis (POLIMI)

Action E.3 Structuring the damage and loss database Del. E.3 Design of the structure of the database for disaster damage and loss data (Umbria-CP)

Action E.4 Defining representation needs in meetings with stakeholders

Del E.4 Test applications of the database to case studies (Umbria-CP)

Action E.5 Key recommendations supporting the current activity aimed at improving existing damage and losses databases at the EU level

Del E.5 Technical report on metadata for representing post disaster damage (CSIC)

Del E.6 Document including key recommendations for the ongoing activity on improving damage and losses databases at EU level (CSIC)

Action F.1 Website development Del. F.1 Website of the IDEA project (POLIMI)Action F.2 Workshop with external stakeholders to discuss the possible links between damage data collection for compensation and forensics and the connection to the Solidarity Fund

Del. F.2 Brief of the first international workshop on links between damage data collection for compensation and forensics and the connection to the Solidarity Fund (OBU)

Action F.3 Workshop to discuss with stakeholders from different countries about the viability of proposed tools and methods

Del. F.3 Brief of the second international workshop on the viability of proposed tools and methods at EU level (POLIMI)

Action F.4 Scientific publications and layman's report Del. F.4 Layman's report (CSIC)

Action G.1 Project management Del. G.1 Brief of the launch and kick off project meetings (POLIMI)

Action G.2 Kick off project meeting, intermediate meetings and project monitoring Del. G.2 Brief of the intermediate project meeting (POLIMI)

Action G.3 Progress interim and final reports Del G.3 Brief of the final project meeting (POLIMI)Action G.4 Administrative and financial management Del G.4 First progress report to the EC (POLIMI)

Del G.5 Second progress report to the EC (POLIMI)Del G.6 Final report to the EC (POLIMI)

Task Title

G

MANAGEMENT ANDREPORTING TO THEEUROPEAN COMMISSION

01/01/2015 31/12/2016

HOW TO LINK POST-DAMAGE ESTIMATION TO PRE-EVENT RISK

ASSESSMENT

E

ENHANCED TOOLS &PROCEDURES FORMANAGING DISASTERDAMAGE AND LOSSDATA

01/02/2016 31/12/2016

F PUBLICITY 01/01/2015 31/12/2016

D 01/07/2015 31/01/2016

Task ID Expected date Actions Meetings, workshops, policy briefs

Action A.1 Identifying key stakeholders. Interviews and small groups meetings

Interviews and small meetings with relevant stakeholders in the case study areas

Action A.2 Defining the current state of data collection procedures in meetings with stakeholder Meetings with stakeholders

B 01/10/2015 - 15/10/2015Action B.4 Defining needs of disaster forensic investigation in meetings with utilities companies and public authorities

Meetings with utilities and public authorities on needs for disaster forensic

E 01/02/2016 - 31/12/2016Action E.5 Key recommendations supporting the current activity aimed at improving existing damage and losses databases at the EU level

Document including key recommendations for the ongoing activity on improving damage and losses databases at EU level (CSIC)

April 2016

Action F.2 Workshop with external stakeholders to discuss the possible links between damage data collection for compensation and forensics and the connection to the Solidarity Fund

First international workshop with stakeholders to discuss the possible links between damage data collection for compensation and forensics and conenction to the Solidarity Fund

September 2016Action F.3 Workshop to discuss with stakeholders from different countries about the viability of proposed tools and methods

Second international workshop on the viability of proposed methodologies, tools and IT systems

19/01/2015 Kick off meeting

September 2015 Intermediate project meetingSeptember 2016 Final project meeting

Action G.2 Kick off project meeting, intermediate meetings and project monitoring

01/01/2015 - 30/06/2015PRELIMINARY TASK

LINKING COLLECTED DATA TO FORENSICS

ENHANCED TOOLS & PROCEDURES FOR

MANAGING DISASTER DAMAGE AND LOSS

DATA

PUBLICITY

Task Title

A

MANAGEMENT AND REPORTING TO THE

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

G

F

Expected meetings and workshops of the project.

Basically two international workshops one in April 2016 and the second in September 2016 and a number of meetings with relevant stakeholders