icao and the upper age limit for professional...
TRANSCRIPT
August 2, 2013 Page 1
ICAO and the upper age limit for ICAO and the upper age limit for professional pilotsprofessional pilots
Dr Anthony EvansInternational Civil Aviation Organization
Montreal, Canada
August 2, 2013 Page 2
Disclosure InformationDisclosure Information8484thth Annual AsMA Scientific Meeting Annual AsMA Scientific Meeting
I have no financial relationships to disclose.
I will not discuss off-label use and/or investigational use in my presentation
August 2, 2013 Page 3
PlanPlan
• Explain the current ICAO upper age limit for professional pilots
• Two 60-64 year olds should be permitted to be at the controls simultaneously– At present only one pilot over 60 years is
permitted
• An upper age limit of 65 years should be maintained, for the moment
August 2, 2013 Page 4
Current ICAO requirementsCurrent ICAO requirements
• Upper age limit is 65 years (increased from 60 years in 2006)– Standard for PICs– Recommendation for co-pilots– Only one pilot over 60 to be at controls at any time
• “One over one under” rule
• 2013 – ICAO proposes – deletion of “one over one under” rule
August 2, 2013 Page 5
Possible current age combinationsPossible current age combinations
PIC Co-pilot64 years…………………………………...59 years
59 years…………………………………….64 years
64 years…………………………………… 64 years
August 2, 2013 Page 6
Science – does it support amending the Science – does it support amending the “one over one under” rule?“one over one under” rule?
• Medical– General population living longer (mainly because of
decreased cardiovascular mortality)• Reduced smoking, improved treatments• Pilots live longer than the general population
– But risk of illness (and incapacitation) still increases with increasing age
• Performance– Pilot performance will eventually decrease with increasing age
August 2, 2013 Page 7
The problem with getting old (1)The problem with getting old (1)
AGE
PER
FORM
AN
CE
August 2, 2013 Page 8
Getting old (2)Getting old (2)
AGE
DIS
EASE
RIS
K
August 2, 2013 Page 9
But….But….In many countries health is improving…In many countries health is improving…
AGE
MO
RTA
LITY
RA
TE
1970 2010
August 2, 2013 Page 10
Taking a closer look at the science…..Taking a closer look at the science…..
1. Medical aspects
August 2, 2013 Page 11UK Office for National Statistics
All cause death rates per million population, All cause death rates per million population, England and Wales, Males, 2010England and Wales, Males, 2010
1% mortality per year
UK office for National Statistics
August 2, 2013 Page 12
Annual Male Incapacitation Rate (all cause) Annual Male Incapacitation Rate (all cause) of commercial pilots by age group, UK, 2004 of commercial pilots by age group, UK, 2004
~60 years
~65 years
Evans S and Radcliffe S-A. The annual incapacitation rate of commercial pilots; Aviat Space and Env Med; 83; 1; 2012
1% per annum
August 2, 2013 Page 13
!% per rule!% per rule
• Many states use 1% per annum (or something similar) as the benchmark against which fitness is assessed for pilots who have developed a medical condition
August 2, 2013 Page 14
Risk of two 64 year olds becoming Risk of two 64 year olds becoming incapacitated simultaneouslyincapacitated simultaneously
• Assume incapacitation risk of a 64 year old is 1% per year (=1% in 104 hours = 0.01 in 104 hours = 1 in 106 hours) = 1 x 10-6 per hour
• Risk of a double incapacitation (“catastrophic failure”) in one hour of flight for two 64 year olds is 1 x 10-6 x 10-6 = 1 x 10-12
• EASA and FAA, large aircraft:– average probability per flight hour of a “catastrophic failure”
(resulting in multiple fatalities) must be “extremely improbable” i.e. average probability per flight hour of the order of 1 x 10-9.
August 2, 2013 Page 15
Assessing incapacitation risk…. Assessing incapacitation risk….
• Not an exact science but:• Assessment of risk of double incapacitation
could be in error by a factor of 1000….– and a risk of 1 x 10-9 per hour for a “catastrophic
failure” (double incapacitation) would still be achieved
• In comparison to the margin of safety available, the increase in risk of incapacitation between 59 and 64 years is small
• Conclusion: Two 60-64 year olds should be permitted to operate together
August 2, 2013 Page 16
Taking a closer look at the science…..Taking a closer look at the science…..
2. Performance aspects.See Captain Sternstein’s
Presentation (next up)
August 2, 2013 Page 17
Conceptually….Conceptually….
AGE
PILO
T PE
RFO
RMA
NCE
60 yrs
65 yrs
Pass/Fail
“insignificant”
August 2, 2013 Page 18
Summary – Science: IncapacitationSummary – Science: Incapacitation
• General population is living longer – is healthier• Medical incapacitation risk increases with
increasing age– Difficult to predict individual risk – But change in risk from 59 to 64 years small
• The current mitigations for incapacitation risk up to age 65 appear to be acceptable– Six monthly medicals over 60 years (annual below
60)– Two pilot operations only for over 60s– Incapacitation training– Many flights have > 2 pilots
August 2, 2013 Page 19
Summary – Science: PerformanceSummary – Science: Performance
• Pilot performance will eventually decrease with increasing age– But variation in effects of age/experience
• The current mitigations for possible performance decrement up to age 65 years appear to be acceptable i.e.– Simulator checks– Line checks
August 2, 2013 Page 20
Overall SummaryOverall Summary
• Two 60-64 year olds should be permitted to be at the controls simultaneously
August 2, 2013 Page 21
Why not abandon the upper age limit? Why not abandon the upper age limit? AsMA position paper, 2004 AsMA position paper, 2004
“On review of the existing evidence, the Aerospace
Medical Association concludes there is insufficient
medical evidence to support restriction of pilot
certification based on age alone.”
August 2, 2013 Page 22
Why not abandon the upper age limit?Why not abandon the upper age limit?
• Sensitivity & specificity of screening tests in over 65s is uncertain– Seizure, onset of atrial fibrillation, stroke…
• With increasing risk of medical incapacitation and performance degradation reliability of screening becomes more important
• With no age limit - potential for every career to end in “failure”. – Change in culture needed
August 2, 2013 Page 23
An upper age limit of 65 years should be An upper age limit of 65 years should be maintained until:maintained until:
• We have better information on ability of tests to identify higher risk individuals in over 65s (incapacitation and performance)
August 2, 2013 Page 24
ICAO and the upper age limit for ICAO and the upper age limit for professional pilotsprofessional pilots
Dr Anthony EvansInternational Civil Aviation Organization
Montreal, Canada