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TRANSCRIPT
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HIV in Japan
24 April 2018
Emeritus Professor, University of TokyoManaging Director, Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development
Aikichi Iwamoto, M.D.
IAS-JCIE Symposium
1
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AIDS and HIV-1
Slim’s disease Pneumocystis pneumonia
1981
1983
・1981 First case report of AIDS from Los Angeles・1983 Discovery of HIV-1 by Franҫoise Barre-Sinoussi
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Brief history of HIV/AIDS
HIV infection
Acute infection Asymptomatic phase AIDS
AIDS is the terminal phase of HIV infection
3
1996~
Improvement of prognosis by antiretroviral therapy
AIDS: Disease caused by CD4 depletion caused by HIV
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9 leading causes of death, U.S.A. in 1987-2006Male 25-44 y/o
4
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5
Denmark Cohort. Lohse N et al. Ann Intern Med 2007;146:87-95.
1997-1999 2000-2005
7.6
22.5
32.5
37.8
51.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
total HCV(-)
Age
33
48
5863
76
General populationBefore 1995
Further improvement of antiretroviral drugs and prognosis
Estimated life expectancy of the people infected by HIV at 25
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One HIV-1-positive, the other negative
Immediate ARTCD4 350-550
Delayed ARTCD4 <250
1,763 randomized couples
886 877
Cohen, MS et al., N Engl J Med 375:9, 2016.
・ Early ART was associated with a 93% lower risk of linked partner infection・ No linked infections when HIV-1 infection was stably suppressed by ART.
Treatment as Prevention
Recent breakthrough-1
Partnerinfection
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Lundgren JD et al, NEJM 373:795-807, 2015.
4,685 patients:CD4 651 /μL (median)
Immediate ART Deferred ART CD4<350
Benefits of the initiation of ART with CD4 > 500
Recent breakthrough-2
Deferred
Immediate
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
8
(Japanese + Foreign)
(Male + Female)
2017HIV: 992AIDS: 415(Preliminary)
Annual new report of HIV/AIDS in Japan
(New report / year)
AIDS case reporting in Japan: AIDS cases at HIV diagnosis
Indicates the late presenters and does not reflect the improvement of ART.
HIV
AIDS
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Percent on ART at IMSUT Hospital
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
% on ART HIV
Reported cases on ART
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HIV care cascade study in U.S.A.
Infected Diagnosed Linked to care
Retainedin care
Viralsuppression
PrescribedART
1,106,400
874,056
655,542
437,028
262,217209,773
Gardner, EM et al. CID 52: 793-800, 2011
79%
59%
40%
24%19%
100%
Denominator: Estimated number of infected people
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11Gardner, EM et al. CID 52: 793-800, 2011
HIV care cascade study in U.S.A.: Implications for countermeasure
Minimal improvement by 90% accomplishment of individual stepsEnormous improvement of treatment success by the 90 % accomplishment of all rates of diagnosis, treatment and undetectable viral load.
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HIV cascade in Japan: Methods
(1) Undiagnosed HIV-positive people・ Average HIV-positive numbers who donated blood for the first time in 2011-2015 to Japanese Red Cross.
・ Extrapolation using the age- and sex-matched overall population on October 2015.
(2) Diagnosed HIV-positives・ Cumulative data from the Annual AIDS Surveillance Report.
・ Included the number from the Nationwide Survey on Coagulation disorders
・ Subtracted the number of foreigners who left Japan based on an estimation reported previously.
・ Subtracted the number of reported AIDS-related deaths.
(3) Nationwide questionnaire survey of the AIDS core hospitals・ Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants to Y. Yokomaku.
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100
8677
71 70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Estimated
patients
Diagnosed Retained in care on treatmen Undetectable VL
86% 83% 99%
HIV care cascade and 90-90-90 in Japan
Iwamoto A et al, The HIV care cascade: Japanese perspectives. PLOS ONE. March 20, 2017.
More than 2,000 more people are attending the hospitals without reply or private clinics and are on treatment with suppressed viral load.
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
14
(Japanese nationality:Male + female)
HIV in Japan: What’s next?
(new report / y)
HIV
AIDS
1. Testing promotion?
2. Decreasing new infection?
3. Decreasing new AIDS?
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Testing at health centers, positive numbers
& positive rate
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
検査件数(保健所等) 陽性数(実数) 陽性率(100,000検査当)
15
Strategic research
Further promotion of current testing would not be effective
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Summary
16
Yes
Yes
・ Revolutionary improvement of ART
・ Treatment as Prevention
・ Is AIDS over in Japan? No!
・ Time for integrated treatment and prevention
・ Personal opinion for the next:More research on those who do not test and get AIDS.