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  • 1

    Introduction

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    SVETLANA VISNEPOLSCHI Director of Anticipatory Failure Determination

    Ideation International Inc.

    Education

    MS in Electrical Engineering

    MS in Patent Law (USSR)

    TRIZ courses by H. Altshuller

    Background and Experience

    R&D Engineer

    Patent expert

    TRIZ expert and developer since 1983

    Contribution to TRIZ

    TRIZ resources: classification, structure, and methods of application to Inventive Problem

    Solving

    Directed Evolution: first practical application to electrical pumps

    Anticipatory Failure Determination: method and software development

    Author and co-author of books and publications

  • 2

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Ideation Operating System for Innovation

    Based on Ideation TRIZ (I-TRIZ) methodology

    Inventive Problem Solving (IPS)

    A systematic procedure for

    resolving tough technological

    problems, enhancing system

    parameters, improving quality, reducing cost, etc.

    for current generations of products and technologies.

    Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)

    Failure Analysis

    A systematic procedure for

    identifying the root causes of a failure or other undesired phenomenon in a system, and for

    making corrections in a timely manner.

    Failure Prediction

    A systematic procedure for

    identifying beforehand, and

    then preventing, all dangerous or

    harmful events that might be associated

    with a system.

    Directed Evolution

    (DE)

    A systematic procedure for strategically

    evolving future generations of technological

    systems.

    Control of Intellectual Property

    A systematic procedure for

    increasing IP value and providing

    protection from infringement and circumvention.

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    4

    Anticipatory Failure Determination

    What failures may occur?

    Why failures did occur?

    System ?

    ? Failures

  • 3

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Anticipatory Failure Determination

    Failure Prediction

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Is the situation any better with regard to failure

    prediction? Traditional methods:

    Risk Assessment

    FMEA (Failure Modes

    and Effects Analysis)

    HAZOP (Hazard and

    Operability Analysis)

    PHA (Preliminary

    Hazards Analysis)

    Vulnerability Analysis

    Fault Trees

    Event Trees

    Etc.

    Hypotheses

  • 4

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    It is very difficult to predict future failures with traditional methods, because

    ?

    ?

    Lack of information about

    future problems

    ? What can go wrong???

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Denial Phenomenon:

    Traditional approaches to failure prediction always face

    information deficiency

    our product is very safe

    it never happened before

    everything will be just fine

    ???

  • 5

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Absence of strong techniques

    for predicting tricky, multi-stage failure scenarios

    Traditional failure prediction methods cannot predict all truly

    hazardous failures

    FMEA/HAZOP templates offers one type of question only:

    What would happen if parameter X increased/decreased at a certain degree?

    Inexhaustible

    field of possible

    resources

    combinations

    System

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    THREE MAJOR STEPS:

    1. Invert the Problem: replace what and why with how to

    2. Invent Failure Hypotheses

    using problem solving tools

    3. Test It :

    does the system have resources to make

    possible failures real?

    Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)

    includes:

  • 6

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Step 1: Invert the Problem

    What can happen???

    ?

    How to make things happen!

    !!!

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    How can we invent Failures ?

    Step 2: Invent Failure Hypotheses

    1. Pro-active thinking!

    2. Use I-TRIZ tools:

    FP Directions

    FP Checklists

    FP Operators

    Hypothesis

  • 7

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    What will happen???

    Hypothesis 1

    Hypothesis 2

    Step 3: Utilize Resources

    For a failure hypothesis to occur, all the necessary components of the failure mechanism

    must be present within the system or its environment as available resources.

    Com

    pon

    en

    t A

    Com

    pon

    en

    t B

    Com

    pon

    en

    t C

    Available Resources:

    Vacant Space

    Free Time

    Required Function

    Similar Substance

    Source of Energy

    Required Information

    Likely

    Failure Hypothesis

    Resource A

    Resource C

    Resource B

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Instead of guessing, AFD recommends a simple three-step procedure:

    . . . that saves you time and money

    Advantages of AFD

    THREE

    TW

    O

  • 8

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Chemical Plant

    Possible Explosion

    Failure Prediction

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    S1

    Scrubber

    Small Gas Release

    Vent line

    Gas

    release

    Problem/system as stated by customer

  • 9

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    S1

    Scrubber

    Gas

    release

    Problem as reformulated by AFD specialist find a worst case scenario

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    S1

    Scrubber

    Gas

    release

    Worst-case scenario: Explosion of the gasholder containing over 100 tons of pressurized liquid gas.

  • 10

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    S1 S2

    Reactor

    Real system

    Resource for explosion: Chemical reaction

    Pressure

    S1 S2 + =

    Inverted problem:

    Find a way to bring two gases in contact initiating an explosion capable to destroy one or both gasholders

    Extremely flammable

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    20

    Direct approach (FMEA, HAZOP. etc.)

    What harm can happen?

    Inverted approach (Ideation Failure Prediction)

    What harm can we make?

    Parameters (as resources)

    Harm we want

    to make

    Methods of harm realization based on

    available resources

    System

    Explosion

    Fire

    Environment pollution

    Limited field of possible

    resources for harm

    System

    Variants browsing,

    looking for possible harm

    Inexhaustible field of possible

    resources' combinations

    Operations or sub-systems

    Comparison of Different Methods

    for Failure Prediction

  • 11

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Idea! use

    burning paper

    How we invent failures FP Operators

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    How we invent failures FP Operators

    Idea! the smoke

    travels inside by itself

    How we invent failures FP Operators

  • 12

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    How we invent failures FP Operators

    Idea! use the

    ventilation system

    How we invent failures FP Operators

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    We will not miss any valuable hypothesis

    SEOR Principle

    Any impact observed in surrounding objects can be regarded as follows:

    Source provides an

    Effect, that is delivered to the

    Object, where a specific

    Result is created - condition or state of the Object.

    EFFECT RESULT

    SOURCE

    OBJECT

  • 13

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    S

    E

    O

    R

    The System of 245 FP Operators

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    S

    E

    Selected Group of Operators

  • 14

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    O P E R A T O R S

    S E O R

    Idea Idea

    Idea Idea

    Idea Idea

    Idea

    Idea

    Idea

    Idea

    Idea

    The system of AFD FP Checklists and Operator

    One can not miss any valuable Failure Hypothesis

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Anticipatory Failure Determination

    Failure Analysis

  • 15

    2010 Ideation International Inc.

    Ideation Operating System for Innovation

    Based on Ideation TRIZ (I-TRIZ) methodology

    Inventive Problem Solving (IPS)

    A systematic procedure for

    resolving tough technological

    problems, enhancing system

    parameters, improving quality, reducing cost, etc.

    for current generations of products and technologies.

    Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)

    Failure Analysis

    A systematic procedure for

    identifying the root causes of a failure or other undesired phenomenon in a system, and for

    making corrections in a timely manner.

    Failure Prediction

    A systematic procedure for

    identifying beforehand, and

    then preventing, all dangerous or

    harmful events that might be associated

    with a system.

    Directed Evolution

    (DE)

    A systemat

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