hydropower: a comparative energy review j. mark robinson jmr energy infra, llc nwha february 23,...
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HYDROPOWER:A Comparative Energy Review
J. Mark RobinsonJMR Energy Infra, LLC
NWHA February 23, 2011
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
Wood to Coal to Oil to ?
1890
1945
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Existing Net Summer Capacity by Energy Source
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20090
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Conventional Hydropower
Renewables
Source: EIA, 1/4/2011
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Electric Generation Growth2008 to 2035
Coal
Natural
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
power
Renewables
Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
20082035
Source: EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook
GW
s
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No New Nuclear Generation Sites 1997 - 2008 1,000 Net MW
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NuclearTime and Money
• The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to complete.
• The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW.
• The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year 2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no long term storage.
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New Coal Fired Generation1997 – 2008 0 Net MW
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Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
• S is the problem.• CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to
humans in a concentration of 10-11%.• To sequestrate CO2– Many miles of pipe are needed.• Up to 23,000 miles of CO2 pipeline will be
needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL)– Permanent, non-cycling storage sites must be
found.• Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent
domain
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New Non-Hydro Renewable Generation 1997 – 2008 23,000 Net MW
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Wind and Solar Energy Land Use and Transmission
• Land use: 500 MW facility– Wind: 30,000 acres– Solar: 3,500 acres
• DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW• 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn
• Renewable sources are not near the market• Current regulatory regimes for siting electric
transmission are poor• S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009
JMR Energy Infra, LLCSources: FERC
Between 2000 and 2009 nine High Voltage (≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines were built
682 miles
345 kV
Transmission Projects
DC
765 kV
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New Natural Gas Fired Generation1997 – 2008 221,000 Net MW
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Between 2000 and 2009 the Commission approved 15,000 miles of interstate pipeline
Transco (204,236,323)
Southern (336,330)
Kern River
(135,886)
NorthBaja(500, 2,700)
Tuscarora(96)
SCG Pipeline (190)
12
3
Northwest(191)
East Tennessee (510)TETCO (197)
El Paso (230,320,150)
WBI(80)
ANR(194,220)
11 CheyennePlains (560)
13
11. CIG (85,133,105) 12. TransColorado (250) 13. WIC (120,675,350,556) 14. Entrega (1,500) 15. Rockies Express West (1,800)
8
Transwestern (500)
Questar (102)
Florida Gas (270)
East Tennessee (170)
4
6
Northern Border
(544,130)
Midcontinent (1,500)Southern Trails (120)
Gulfstream(1,130, 155)
7Guardian(750, 537)
Trailblazer(324)
12
El Paso (502)
Golden Pass (2,500)
14
Columbia (172)
5
8Dominion(700)
Port Arthur (3,000)
9
Center Point (1,237, 280)
Vector (245,105)
10Northern Natural
(374)
15
Trunkline (510)
TETCO (150)
Gulf South(1,700, 560)
Natural (200)
Elba Express (1,175)
Southeast Supply(1,140,175)
Gulf Crossing (1,732)
Texas Gas (1,609)CenterPoint (132)
Rockies ExpressEast (1,800)
CenterPoint (132)Southern/Magnolia (82)
Cypress (500)
NorthernStar(1,300)
1. Islander East (285) 2. Iroquois (100,200) 3. Columbia (135) 4. Transcontinental (130,142) 5. Transcontinental (100) 6. Maritimes (418) 7. Tennessee (500) 8. Tennessee (136) 9. Texas Eastern (900)10. Algonquin (325)
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Pending Hydropower Projects Sept 2, 2010 168 MW
Source: FERC
29 Projects
Electric Generation Capital Costs
Hydroele
ctric
Natural
Gas CC
Natural
Gas CT
Wind O
nshore
Wind O
ffshore
Solar
Therm
al
Photovolta
ic
Coal PC
Coal IGCC
Nuclear
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 $/kW
2011 $/kW
Dol
lars
Source: EIA, 2010
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JMR Energy Infra, LLC
Six Principles of Energy Infrastructure Siting
Six Principles Hydropower Renewables/Transmission
Natural GasPipelines
1) Pre-filing x x2) Exclusive Authority ? x3) Disciplined Schedule x4) One Federal Record x5) Expeditious Judicial Review x6) Eminent Domain x x
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Cost of FERC Hydro Application
0 200 400 600 800 1000 12000
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
f(x) = 25935.572423404 x + 2165594.41025769R² = 0.669287897358986
MWs
Dol
lars
in m
illio
ns
n=60
Source: FERC
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Integrated Licensing Process
EvolvedIntegrated Licensing Process
PAD
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Developing a Hydropower Siting Culture
• Economic Interdependence
• Appreciation of the time scale for Major Energy Infrastructure
• Intergenerational Responsibility
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Hydropower’s Future
• Competition without subsidies - costs
• Legislative/Regulatory Environment
• Development Culture