hydrologic modeling of waller creek
DESCRIPTION
Hydrologic modeling of Waller Creek. Prepared by: Mustafa AKCAY. TABLE OF CONTENTS. BACKGROUND WORKING WITH HEC-Prepro RUNNING HMS CALIBRATION OF HMS PARAMETERS RESULTS CONCLUTION. BACKGROUND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEM MODEL. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hydrologic modeling of Waller Creek
Prepared by: Mustafa AKCAY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
BACKGROUND
WORKING WITH HEC-Prepro
RUNNING HMS
CALIBRATION OF HMS PARAMETERS
RESULTS
CONCLUTION
BACKGROUND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEM MODEL
HSM is an approximation of the actual system in which inputs and outputs are measurable hydrologic variables and system operator is described by a set of equations linking the inputs and outputs.
Input Output
I(t) Q(t)
Q(t)= I(t)
Operator,
Hydrologic Model Classification
Hydrologic Models
Physical Models Abstract Models
Input Output
HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) Deterministic Stochastic
Output is not a fixed
Input F(infiltration,transform,routing) Output value but instead
described as a
Precipitation, i Stream flow,Q probability distr.
System
f(ran.,space,time)
RUNNING HEC-Prepro
Dem Digital Elevation
RF3 Stream Network
BURNING IN FILLING STREAM GRIDS
FLOW DIRECTION FLOW ACCUMULATION
Rising the land surface cells that are of stream to delinate streams from DEM.
Filling the pits that are probably to cause wrong flow directions
Defing threshold or minimum drainage area
Darker the color of individual grid,the more grid cells drain into that cell.
GAGES--OUTLETS--LINKS
SUB-WATER DELINEATION VECTORIZATION
Shape file with points representing gages that will be imported into ArcView.
Adding outlets to change the places of gages that are off the river and pointing the joints
Delineation of watershed according to gages,outlets,links
Vectorization for easyness of using and storing data compared with grid base analysis.
RUNNING HMS
RUNNING HMS Transfer of Hydrologic Attributes to Schematic Creating the HMS Components
HMS schematic is conceptual model that captures the connectivity between the different elements of the hydrologic system
Opening a new HMS project and importing the basin file , and then adding a background map .
Location of USGS Stations ,38th street and 23rd street, and their annual peak values for corresponding rainfall.
Time(Year)Prec(inc) Flow(cfs) Prec(inc) Flow(cfs)
1957 3.26 596 3.03 20501958 1.35 17001959 2.56 468 2.56 19101960 3.22 251 3.22 7261961 4.48 1970 4.48 37101962 1.81 1420 1.92 22701963 0.64 263 0.64 10701964 2.54 1340 2.54 22801965 3.19 805 3.19 23201966 2.76 618 2.76 16801967 1.3 604 1.3 9001968 3.04 745 1.56 12201969 2.79 361 1.36 13501970 3.65 444 3.65 6101971 1.72 587 1.4 15601972 3.16 1400 3.16 21601973 4.71 830 4.71 14601974 4.64 1810 4.64 40201975 4.62 892 4.21 166019761977 2.22 6411978 2.15 531 2.15 12801979 5.55 1830 5.55 26201980 1.17 327
38th Street 23rd Street
Stream flow vs PrecipitationRunoff vs rainfall for 23rd street
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Precipitation,in
Str
eam
flo
w,c
fs
Series1 Series2 Series3
Time(Year)Prec(inc) Flow(cfs) Prec(inc) Flow(cfs)
1957 3.26 596 3.03 20501958 1.35 17001959 2.56 468 2.56 19101960 3.22 251 3.22 7261961 4.48 1970 4.48 37101962 1.81 1420 1.92 22701963 0.64 263 0.64 10701964 2.54 1340 2.54 22801965 3.19 805 3.19 23201966 2.76 618 2.76 16801967 1.3 604 1.3 9001968 3.04 745 1.56 12201969 2.79 361 1.36 13501970 3.65 444 3.65 6101971 1.72 587 1.4 15601972 3.16 1400 3.16 21601973 4.71 830 4.71 14601974 4.64 1810 4.64 40201975 4.62 892 4.21 166019761977 2.22 6411978 2.15 531 2.15 12801979 5.55 1830 5.55 26201980 1.17 327
38th Street 23rd Street
Runoff vs rainfall for 38th street
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Precipitation,in
Str
eam
flo
w,c
fs
Between years 1957-64 Between years 1965-1972 Between years 1973-1980
Best-lines for runoff-rainfall data
Time(yr) Prec.(inc) 38th st.(Q1,cfs) 23rd st(Q2,cfs)59 2.56 468 19106061 4.48 1970 371063 0.64 263 107064 2.54 1340 228065 3.19 805 232066 2.76 618 168067 1.3 604 9007072 3.16 1400 216073 4.71 830 146074 4.64 1810 402078 2.15 531 128079 5.55 1830 2620
23rd Street
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 2 4 6
Precipitation(in)
Str
ea
mfl
ow
(cfs
)
Between1959-1964
Between 1965-1972
Between 1973-1980
Linear (Between 1973-1980)
Linear (Between 1965-1972)
Linear (Between1959-1964)
38th Street
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 2 4 6
Streamflow(cfs)
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n(i
n)
between 1959-1964
Between 1965-1972
Between 1973-1980
Linear (between 1959-1964)
Linear (Between 1965-1972)
Linear (Between 1973-1980)
Time(yrs) Prec(inc) Q1(cfs) Cal.Q1(cfs) Q2(cfs) Cal.Q2(cfs) Q2/Q1 Cal.Q2/Cal.Q11959 2.56 468 1137 1910 2222 4.08 1.951960 3.22 251 1431 726 2680 2.89 1.871961 4.48 1970 1886 3710 3555 1.88 1.781963 0.64 263 289 1070 717 4.06 3.131964 2.54 1340 997 2280 2208 1.7 1.961965 3.19 805 998 2320 2207 2.88 2.211966 2.76 618 904 1680 1899 2.71 2.11967 1.3 604 589 900 857 1.49 1.461970 3.65 444 1097 610 2536 1.374 2.311972 3.16 1400 991 2160 2186 1.54 1.561973 4.71 830 1390 1460 2549 1.76 1.831974 4.64 1810 1366 4020 2517 2.22 1.841978 2.15 531 521 1280 1386 2.41 2.771979 5.55 1830 1632 2620 2811 1.43 1.74
38th Street 23rd Street
Application of Rational Method
Time(yrs) Prec(inc) Cal.Q1(cfs) Cal.Q2(cfs) C1 C21959 2.56 1137 2222 0.65088138 0.6810291960 3.22 1431 2680 0.65127605 0.6530411961 4.48 1886 3555 0.61694297 0.62262011963 0.64 289 717 0.66175802 0.87902391964 2.54 997 2208 0.57523167 0.68206671965 3.19 998 2207 0.45848086 0.54284171966 2.76 904 1899 0.4799994 0.53985531967 1.3 589 857 0.66397739 0.51724821970 3.65 1097 2536 0.44044848 0.54515241972 3.16 991 2186 0.45958719 0.5427811973 4.71 1390 2549 0.43248917 0.42462981974 4.64 1366 2517 0.4314337 0.42562461978 2.15 521 1386 0.35512448 0.50580871979 5.55 1632 2811 0.43093178 0.3974014
Assumptions: Computed peak rate of runoff at
the outlet point is a function of the average rainfall rate during the time of concentration.
Time of concentration: Time from most remote part of the drainage area to the out flow point.
Constant rainfall intensity.
Rational Method: Q=CiA
I=in/hr Q1/(0.48*i*1421.6)=C1 A=acre Q=cfs Q2/(0.48*i*2655.2)=C2 0C1
Most critical flow between 1959-64 Q1(HMS)=173cfs Q1(Measured)=289cfs 40% accuracy
Q2(HMS)=295cfs Q2(Measured)=717cfs 143% accuracy
Most Critical Flow Between 1965-1972 Q1(HMS)=366.9cfs Q1(Measured)=589 60% accuracy Q2(HMS)=633cfs Q2(Measured)=857 35% accuracy
Most Critical Flow Between 1973-1979 Q1(HMS)=614cfs Q1(Measured)=521cfs 15% accuracy Q2(HMS)=1059cfs Q2(Measured)=1386cfs 30% accuracy
RESULTS
According to data I obtained, by the definition of stochastic model;
the runoff will fall in 140%, 60%, 30% neighborhood of runoff you obtained from HMS between 1959-64, 1965-72, 1973-1979 respectively.
For runoff from 1997-... ?
CONCLUSION
Using SCS Method for Infiltration may increase the precision of the model.
Lots of uncertainty affecting the output so it is difficult to make modeling with high accuracy
Don’t even think of a modeling of a basin by just one rainfall gage station!
Appreciations
Esteban AZAGRAJona F.JONSDOTTIR