hydrogen in a global long-term perspective

ht. .I. Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 20, No. 6, pp. 485492, 1995 International Association for Hydrogen Energy

Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain

036&3199/95 $9.50 + 0.00

HYDROGEN IN A GLOBAL LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE*

J. QUAKERNAAT TN0 Institute of Environmental and Energy Technology, P.O. Box 342, 7300 AH Apeldoorn, The Netherlands

(Received for publication 24 June 1994)

Abstract-For many countries, the hydrogen economy offers an operational objective for their long-term energy structure. At the end of the next century, the world will depend on the predominant use of carbon-free and carbon-neutral sources of energy, such as flow energy, energy from modern biomass and safe nuclear energy. According to current expectations, traditional fossil fuels will either be practically exhausted or no longer useful as a result of the greenhouse effect. In both cases, a scarcity motive is at issue. This implies that the direct and indirect costs involved in the use of traditional energy supplies will increase sharply with the passage of time, so that the economic feasibility of the less intensive use of energy and the introduction of alternative energy supply systems will no longer be insurmountable problems. The supply and demand structures of energy will be optimally blended by the use of hydrogen and electricity, an almost ideal combination of secondary energy carriers. With these carriers, practically every centralized or decentralized, environmentally sound energy supply can be permanently maintained, both within and outside of industrialized, metropolitan areas. How the transition to a hydrogen economy will precisely take place is not clear. In general, it is assumed that for many decades to come, the economic development of developing countries will depend on the predominant use of relatively “cheap” fossil energy carriers (coal, petroleum and natural gas), as well as on the accompanying energy supply structures. However, those countries, similar to the wealthy industrial countries, will also have to start using highly capital-intensive and very energy-efficient energy supply systems and energy consumption technologies. This requires innovative strategies that are aimed at compensating developing countries (temporarily) for their lack of purchasing power and knowledge infrastructure. Presumably nowhere in the world will a substantial changeover to hydrogen as an energy carrier possibly be at issue in the first few decades. The costs involved in the hydrogen chain are still too high, and world energy prices are still to low for such a changeover to take place. Attention, however, will focus on drastic energy saving, decarbonization of fossil fuels, substitution to natural gas, the opening up of flow energy, biomass production and the development of inherently safe nuclear energy

INTRODUCTION

In the 197Os, desk studies were published in different areas of the world (including The Netherlands) that considered the possibilities and limitations of the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier Cl+]. The immediate cause of these activities was the expectation that, in view of the permanently strong increase in global energy consumption, account should be taken of the exhaustion of the available supplies of traditional energy sources within approximately 100 years. If this situation was not anticipated in time, considerable problems could be expected in maintaining the various energy supply systems.

Considering the supposed potential of nuclear energy, specifically breeders, the investigation then concentrated on the assessment of whether in the distant future the world would have to deal with what was termed an “all electric society”, or with its counterpart, an “all hydrogen society”.

*Paper presented at the Nationale Themadag Waterstof, Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN), Petten.

It appeared that for the Dutch situation the existing hybrid energy system of gas and electricity could “for- ever” be the basis of national energy management. This view was based on the decade-long experience with a national energy supply dominated by natural gas; this supply could absorb, without any complications, the fluctuations in both daily and seasonal energy demands c51.

A shift, if necessary, to a partial or even total hydrogen supply in the long term appeared to be highly possible, first by using hydrogen as a supplementary gas and then as a replacement gas for the national natural gas supply. This view was re-confirmed in a recent study [6].

Meanwhile, the realization of the set of ideas known as “sustainable development ” evokes many strategic questions, like: what would be the best way for a national economy to switch to a society that centers around the sustainable use of material means, and how could such a society best be supplied with environmentally sound energy? The less-intensive use of energy and materials in product chains appears to be a decisive factor c71.

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The problem of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, as recognized on a global scale, also led to a re-opening of the discussion in The Netherlands concerning the use of hydrogen. Globally, a large quantity of carbon in the form of carbon dioxide is being added at a rapid rate to the atmosphere, with all its consequences: climatic changes and, coupled with those, a rise in sea level.

A number of studies have recently been published relating to the possible future structure of a carbon-poor energy supply, in which attention was, of course, also given to the hydrogen option [S].

All things considered, this proved reason enough for a renewed orientation and a response to a number of questions concerning the position of The Netherlands in the international development process with regard to the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The main features of this will be reported in this article.

ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The economic order is basically a matter-bound phe- nomenon, and in its development, no different from an open, dissipative system [9]. Unprecedentedly large quantities of matter extracted from the Earth are spread daily at a rapid rate into the environmental compartments of air, water and soil, in a strongly mixed and generally extremely diluted form. Without adequate counter- measures, we will see a combination of the drastic exhaustion of natural raw materials and irreversible damage to the global ecosystem occurring in the near future. If the policy is left unchanged, worldwide economic expansion will inevitably reach deadlock with regard to the exhaustibility of the natural carrying capacity of the Earth [lo].

The reason for all of this can be found in the fact that the Earth can be regarded as a closed thermodynamic system for substances. Only by continuously adding energy can the loss of entropy be pushed back [ll]. A lasting recirculation of the substances on Earth (in both natural and anthropogenic systems) is only possible if an inexhaustible source of energy is available. For natural systems on Earth, the Sun is the inexhaustible driving force. For the time being, the “inexhaustible” energy source for anthropogenic systems consists of the depletion of the earthly supply of low-entropy energy: the supplies of fossil fuels [12].

The concept of sustainable economic development is actually a contradiction in terms. No matter what per- centage of economic growth one assumes, an increase in the quantity of material means (products and waste substances) is always at stake. The raw materials that are required for manufacturing these material means must always be extracted from the Earth using much energy.

Energy is also consumed in a so-called “economic equilibrium position”. Because any energy production is accompanied by a certain loss of environmental reserves [13], it is therefore, in essence, impossible to grow economically or even to reach economic zero growth without a continual load on the biosphere [14]. The energy supplies and the Earth’s capacity to absorb the

environmental impact of energy consumption therefore set the most stringent limits to global development.

The often heard adage of “first grow and only then proceed to repairing the damage caused to the environment” must therefore be regarded as disastrous. The goal should always be to choose the least damaging variant from the variety of solutions.

ASPECTS OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

During the last century, from a material viewpoint, the world has shown unprecedented development, both qualitatively and quantitatively. This is a result of the intimate socially combined action of science, technology and capitalist economy. Specifically, industrial technology has made the ongoing delegation of work, specializ- ation, mechanization and information possible [ 151,

All this has led to the world population growing in those 100 years from 1.3 to 5.1 billion people, and a large number of industrial countries with considerable prosperity can be indicated. Generally, it is expected that the world population will continue to grow. This causes a number of consequences that every global energy supply structure should take into account [16].

In developing countries, growth will be an absolute necessity in the coming decades, since very large numbers of people there still cannot provide for their bare necess- ities, even at the present time. In view of the anticipated population growth, it is expected that, for balanced growth, developing countries need an average economic growth of 5-6% per year. Because of the existing international economic connection, this means that the industrialized world should also continue to show economic growth.

Even at moderate figures of economic growth, the worldwide demand for food (and thus the associated demand for energy) will continue to show a sharp increase in the next decades. Already, hundreds of millions of people are living in a precarious situation of hunger and poverty. In order to improve this situation, food production should increase, even at an accelerated rate. Under different assumptions of global economic growth, the increase in the demand of food appears to vary from 95% (balanced growth scenario) to 50% (“discontinuity” scenario) [ 171.

Another point of view concerns the movement of people to cities. Forty years ago, 0.3 billion people in developing countries lived in cities (17%), but 4 billion people (57%) are expected to live in them in the year 2015. This means that by the year 2015, more people will be living in the city than in the country. At the end of this century, there will be 21 megacities with over 10 million people; 17 of these megacities are in developing countries. At present, Sao Paulo already has nearly 20 million inhabitants [18]. The need for energy in urban conglomerations will therefore continue to increase sig- nificantly.

In this respect, it is useful to realize that the nature of the environmental problems in low- and middle-income countries differs from that in high-income countries.

HYDROGEN IN A GLOBAL LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE 487

Industrial countries are essentially faced with problems such as pollution, squandering and disturbance. At the prmt time, the main problem in developing countries is the exhaustion of natural resources: the overcropping of natural raw materials, denuding of the forests and deser- tification. However, pollution (as a result of quick urban- ization) is also becoming an ever-increasing concern. The first prerequisite for reaching any solution to this global environmental crisis is the cooperation of rich and poor countries (forestry, energification) [19].

ASPECTS OF THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

A hydrogen economy centers around a closely concentrated action of two secondary energy carriers, i.e. hydrogen and electricity. Hydrogen and electricity are not “found”; both have to be produced using relatively large amounts of energy at high costs [20].

For example, by means of a traditional chemical method, hydrogen can be obtained from natural gas, petroleum and coal. It can also be obtained from water using electrolysis (in which oxygen is released as a by-product). The electricity for water electrolysis can be generated by varying sources: fossil fuel-fired power stations, nuclear power stations, or using a suitable renewable energy source (hydropower, photovoitaic ceils, windmills, tidal power station, etc.). Various ther- mochemical and photoiytic processes are other methods which have been investigated for years in the laboratory and on a pilot scale and which may be of importance in the future.

By using hydrogen as an energy buffer, the variable yield of the renewable energy sources that generate electricity can be converted into a constant flow of energy, an indispensable factor for post-fossil energy management.

In contrast to electricity, hydrogen can be stored on a large scale, thus making is possible to absorb the daily and seasonal peaks in energy demand. Hydrogen can be transported physically over large distances: as a gas in pipelines and as a liquid in special containers for transportation by truck, train or ship. Electrical energy can also be transported in large quantities, though no physical transfer is involved here. Hydrogen can serve as an energy carrier and as a raw material carrier; electricity does not have these possibilities. On the other hand, electricity can function as an information carrier. Something that is not true of hydrogen [21].

For the end user, hydrogen can be used as a fuel and as a chemical raw material. Using oxygen (from the air), hydrogen can directly supply heat (combustion) as well as electricity (fuel ceil), thus also closing the cycle of the initial substance, water.

Handling hydrogen on an industrial scale is a routine matter. Both in the chemical industry and in aerospace, billions of cubic meters of hydrogen are kept yearly in intermediate storage and transported in pipelines. In Germany, for example, for over 50 years, there has been a pipeline network of more than 200 km for the chemical industry that functions with practically no problems. Also in the United States, Japan and Italy there are pipeline

networks for the transportation of hydrogen for industrial purposes.

In a technical sense, the combination of the two secondary energy carriers, electricity and hydrogen, can cover practically any need on the demand side: residential hea, process flow; power; traction; and light. Whether every conceivable combination can or will be realized in practice depends of course on many other factors, such as the technical energy efficiency, the costs and, last but not least, the environmental impact of the hydrogen energy chain in question [22].

The use of hydrogen is reputed to be quite environmentally friendly. No environment-polluting substances are released during its combustion with oxygen. However, this does not mean that the hydrogen chain would have no environmental impact whatsoever. Hydrogen gas that is released, for example, has a certain indirect effect on ozone degradation in the stratosphere [23]. On combustion with air, nitrogen dioxides appear, vapor is at issue and heat losses may occur. The questions arising from integral chain management are whether the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier complies with an acceptable energy pay-off time, and whether the use of material means over the entire chain can be deemed sustainable enough. This may, for example, be a factor in the manufacturing of solar ceils, part of a solar hydrogen chain [24].

Hydrogen should be handled with care because of the danger of explosion, but this gives virtually no problems in practice. Globally, approximately 500 million m3 of hydrogen are currently being consumed per year with very few problems.

The possibility of water electrolysis is in general indicated as a breakthrough to the carbon-free production of hydrogen [25]. The road is not yet open to large-scale production; from an economic point of view, the electrolytic route is still not advantageous enough. For future success, development is required towards inexpensive electrolysis equipment with higher hydrogen yield than at present.

The same holds true for the production of the electricity for the electrolysis, when solar ceils are chosen. Only when these become considerably cheaper and the production efficiency also markedly increases will large-scale solar hydrogen be attainable. Although the prospects for success may be encouraging from a technical point of view, it will take another few decades before ail logistical and institutional problems for large-scale centralized and decentralized supply have been solved [26]. Solar eiec- trolysis plants are being tested under practical conditions in a number of places in the world. The best known plant is located in Germany [27].

Another interesting avenue that may give rise in the long run to a breakthrough in the field of the production of hydrogen is modern biomass. Hydrogen is released during the digestion of organic substances. Because other reaction products (such as ethanol and acetate) are also generated in this process, gasification of biomass is a better option for the production of hydrogen. The gasification technology is well-known and is frequently

488 J. QUAKERNAAT

applied inter din to wood and other vegetable residues (such as rice chaff, etc.) A constant supply of biomass is required for the production of hydrogen on an industrial scale. The quality can be guaranteed through targeted energy cropping. In a combined energy supply system of electricity and hydrogen the modern biomass obtained via this avenue appears to become an interesting sustainable energy source [20]. In setting up such systems for “energy forming”, the logistical and organizational aspects are of decisive importance for their success.

Despite the technological hindrances which can be overcome, the future of hydrogen as an energy carrier will be determined by the oil market and the price that society is willing to pay for an energy supply that is poor in carbon dioxide. The costs of hydrogen production are, for the time being, prohibitive of any introduction into the energy market. As soon as the world energy price permits, the hydrogen/electricity combination will be open to an interesting future [28, 291.

ASPECTS OF GLOBAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT

Industrialized counties consume about three times as much commercial energy as developing countries. Cur- rently, one person in the industrialized world consumes an equivalent amount of energy to 10 people in developing countries [30].

Since the 197Os, energy consumption in developing countries has tripled, with coal and petroleum being the most significant new primary sources of energy. These energy sources are used almost solely in industry and urban traffic. However, for cooking, heating, lighting and traditional activities, the fast growing population in the villages is still dependent on traditional sources of energy, such as wood, straw, crop waste and manure. In countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, the consumption figures may be as high as almost 90%. Where mechanical energy is involved, the larger part of the 1.6 billion villagers still depend on the available human and animal muscle power (sowing, harvesting, hauling water, etc.).

The worldwide demand for energy will increase for many decades to come. The most important factors affecting the global energy demand are world population growth, economic development, global environmental management, efficiency improvement of the energy production and development of the price of energy.

For the time being, fossil fuels will continue to play the largest role. By far the greater part of the increase in global consumption will occur in developing countries, where the demand will double in about 30 years. In the same period, renewable energy sources (such as hydropower, Sun, water, wind, tide, geothermal energy, biogas, ocean heat, heat pumps, lengthening the useful economic life of products, etc.), as well as nuclear energy (inherently safe fission, fusion (?)) can take over the role of fossil fuels c311.

However, extensification (less intensive use of energy, cascading and volume limitation) is another “source of energy”, possibly even the most important one at the present time !

A simple case study that was recently set up by the MITRE Corporation supplies us with a great deal of information to study in order to obtain a rough insight into the meaning of the quantity of energy that the world will need in the year 2100 [32].

1990 has been chosen in the case study as the standard year, 339 EJ is taken as the total primary commercial world energy consumption (1 EJ = 10” J). Assuming an unchanged policy for a population of 11.3 billion people in the year 2100,220O EJ of energy appear to be required. The growth figures in the case study have been chosen in such a way that the prosperity level for the poorest developing countries in 2100 can be compared with that of modern Greece.

If it is assumed that three subsequent generations of systematic efficiency improvement in energy consumption continue are successful, the figure for the end consumption in 2100 can be reduced to about 1100 EJ. Despite this very large reduction, there is still a 3.3-fold increase in the energy demand.

So far we have started from the current global “fixed” relation of the market sectors of petroleum (39%), coal (29%), natural gas (20%), alternatives (8%, i.e. hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass, “urban solid waste”, wind power and solar energy) and nuclear energy (6%). Since, however, the fossil fuels will be exhausted by the year 2100, the demand for energy will have to be absorbed by alternative sources of energy. For a case study with a theoretical yearly growth figure of 2.75% for both flow energy and nuclear energy, this leads in the year 2100 to an energy demand of 584 EJ for nuclear energy and 518 EJ for flow energy (somewhat less than half the total demand). The transition from a predomi- nantly fossil world energy management to combined energy management of nuclear energy and flow energy lies around the year 2050 in this study.

A quantity of 584 EJ of primary energy from nuclear energy in 2100 amounts roughly to a total of 10,700 1 MW nuclear power stations at 75% capacity. At present, 426 breeders are globally operative, and 96 are in the planning and construction phase [32]. As far as the supply of 518 EJ in the form of flow energy is concerned, the contribution of all solar technologies together is estimated to be about 400 EJ, an enormous quantity. With regard to land suface, this means an acreage of about 20 times the surface of The Netherlands. The remaining energy demand is debatably allocated to modern biomass, energy from solid waste, hydropower and geothermal heat.

The result of the case study, although simplistic, shows that the total global energy demand in 2100 is still quite large, taking into account, in a first-order approach, the size of the world population, the carbon dioxide problem and the requirement for substantial energy saving. The option of nuclear energy cannot be left out in a carbon-free energy management system. If this option were excluded, for whatever reason, we will have to think ofother solutions in order to be able to meet global energy demands.

At present, it is difficult to determine whether much more flow energy could be employed by that time or


whether the size of the world population will have drastically diminished by then. A third possibility may be implied by a very strongly reduced energy demand as a result of a type of sustainable society that is based on a different prosperity concept, and in which a more economical goods system offers the foundation for considerably less intensive use of energy.

The last train of thought is not new. Attempts to derive the social end demand of energy from (basic) human needs (instead of trend extrapolation against the background of a historically determined production growth) have already been made in 1980s [33-351. Meanwhile, it appears that the reassessment of needs, services and functions can hold a promising perspective towards bringing a sustainable society within reach, not only for industrialized countries but for developing countries as well [36, 373.

MOVING TOWARDS A HYDROGEN ECONOMY

Global energy management will have to contend, at least for some decades, with an intermediary period having a relatively large number of traditional, non- sustainable energy supply structures. In the existing economic world order, site-specific, established, proven, reliable and affordable energy systems are needed. On the one hand, to guarantee prosperity and, on the other, to build it up. Two main strategies are important here: continuous demand limitation of energy; and conversion towards sustainable energy and material supply systems. From a technological point of view, our “first” thoughts in this respect should be decarbonization of fossil fuels, fuel cells, heat pump systems, photovoltaic electricity and energy cropping [8, 20, 381. Conditional technologies at chain level are also essential to optimize sustainable production chains [39]. Urban logistical systems for product and material recycling and for product, material and energy cascades are of specific importance.

In addition to a less intensive use of energy, every transition to a partial hydrogen economy will have to start by finding a global solution to the large-scale emissions of carbon dioxide in the industrial production sectors, with the energy industry as the most important representative. If the world does not now switch to an accelerated reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, the temperature increase in the atmosphere cannot be limited to 2°C [8,40]. If the world starts this reduction 20 years from now, society must then switch to a very sharp level of reduction. If it should start 40 years from now, it will no longer succeed in limiting the temperature increase to 2°C. Once this temperature has risen and the icecaps have melted, it will take centuries to undo it again.

A changeover to a society in which all attention is focused on sustainable use of material means will be an issue, when the urban infrastructures “of that moment” have to be replaced globally. With regard to energy supply, such a society will have a completely different outlook. Environmentally sound energy systems, both centralized and decentralized, will be interconnected with electricity, gas and heat networks over great distances.

Idea-building about this took place in the United States as early as 1975 [41]! Recently, a project with the integrated “eco-energy city” at stake was launched in Japan [42].

The problems involved in urban trathc and transportation are closely connected with the above. Currently, 500million vehicles are found on the world’s global roads. Environmental pollution by cars is already a very serious problem in many large cities. On the basis of trend extrapolation, a fleet of 1 billion cars is expected by the year 2030. This is a good reason to hurry to provide alternative motor fuels. The most important options are methanol, electricity and hydrogen [20, 41, 431. The ultimate “winner” of this competition cannot yet be determined. Important factors that play a role here are the price of energy, the price people are willing to pay for clean traffic, the necessity of diversification in motor fuels and the extent to which the car has been constructed in a recycle-friendly way.

However, let me reiterate this: first of all, an extension towards energy saving will be necessary ! The energy demand will have to be drastically reduced under all circumstances. Depending on the chosen starting-point, the figures for potential energy saving worldwide cover the range 4580% [9, 16, 20, 301.

The hydrogen economy must be regarded as an operational objective for national and supranational strategy. The goal and the direction of the structuring process towards (fundamentally) new goals are determined, but not the way in which it should take place. However, a number of extra conditions can be stated that should be taken into account for each avenue of development towards a partial hydrogen economy [20,44].

The demand for energy will continue to increase as a result of increasing population and prosperity, despite substantial improvement in the efficiency of energy consumption. Petroleum supplies, presently still the dominant com- ponent in the world energy mix, will have dwindled away to marginal size within 4&50 years. Relatively speaking, most of the growth in energy demand will occur in developing countries, and then specifically in metropolitan/urban areas. For the time being, developing countries will depend on fossil energy carriers, in particular coal, for many decades to come. Fifty years from now, renewable energy sources and inherently safe nuclear energy must have taken over a substantial part of the worldwide energy demand. Public acceptance of new energy systems, including nuclear energy, is not to be taken for granted. The impediments to the global extension of

F

w efficiency are not primarily one of a tee ological nature, but those of an institutional natur : international legislation; active anticipation of the market mechanism of the energy trade; transfer of knowledge in the North/South relationship in the technological and organizational fields; and specifically behavior modification.

490 J. QUAKERNAAT

l Gigantic financial exertions are connected to any long-term partial solution: the costs to reach a 60% reduction in the emission of carbon dioxide in Europe amount to roughly NLG 260 billion gross per year, for dozens of years [45]. The total costs involved in bringing the efficiency of the energy management of the former Soviet Union to the current average level of the OECD is US$ 1.3 trillion; for developing countries, a figure of US$ 1 trillion is stated 1461.

l If an energy technology is to be used sustainably, it will have to be clean, safe, efficient, quiet, affordable and socially acceptable.

l Included in the energy costs will have to be the environmentally related costs; otherwise, the situation will still be that the negative environmental impact is left to be solved by future generations.

Briefly summarized, some application of hydrogen as an energy carrier will presumably take place first as a contribution to the energy supply of urban conglomerations. To supply heat, electricity and motor fuel, new techniques, new equipment and engines will be needed. Initially, these tools will have to be developed by the rich, industrialized countries. For efficient global spread, both bilateral and multilateral strategic alliances between industrialized countries and developing countries can be of great importance [47]. The main problem in the larger-scale use of flow energy is the distribution and storage of the generated energy in the form of electricity. Sustainable sources of energy are mostly “generated” in relatively inhospitable, Sun-drenched areas in the (sub)tropics, on the coast and in the mountains.

HYDROGEN AND THE NETHERLANDS

Hydrogen and electricity as energy carriers are clearly a long-term option for The Netherlands. This is because of the enormous costs involved in the introduction of hydrogen energy chain. For that matter, no principal technical impediments can be stated to a stepwise replacement of natural gas by hydrogen. Considering the enormous quantity of energy that must be replaced by hydrogen somewhere in the middle of the next century, one will have to work “in time” towards a very sizeable production capacity. Whether the realization of this capacity will take place at a rapid or slow pace cannot be said. This will strongly depend on the willingness of society as a whole to take action. In itself, technological changes can be accoplished at a relatively rapid rate over several decades provided there is a purposeful, stimulative socioeconomic climate for them, a climate that is focused on recognizing the necessity of change. This concerns the dynamics of the required changes. How long, for example, will it take before the external costs of the energy chain have been expressed in the the price of energy?

With regard to The Netherlands, the significance of hydrogen as an energy carrier remains restricted, for the time being, to its use for (a) clean traffic in the inner cities of the metropolitan conglomerations in the western part of the country, (b) electricity generation and (c) industrial

energy supply. Only at a much later stage will supply of natural gas play a significant role in space heating.

Considering the geographic location of The Nether- lands, a substantial quantity of hydrogen will possibly have to be purchased abroad for carbon-free national energy management, e.g. solar hydrogen from the Sahara. This hydrogen will have to be transported to our country either as a gas using a pipeline or as a liquid by ship. Safe, reliable facilities for the storage, trans-shipment and handling of hydrogen are needed at numerous locations. If hydrogen were to deliver the energy for motor vehicles equipped with a fuel cell system [38] within the town center, this would require an extensive distribution network in the town, with numerous reliable, safe and user-friendly provisions.

Despite a large German desk study that was recently devoted to solar hydrogen chains from the Sahara desert [40], there are still very many quesitons as to how such a large-scale technology can be fitted into the existing national energy management scheme, in a technical and institutional sense. At first glance, an energy management system based on hydrogen and electricity appears to be workable in The Netherlands without any directly obvious changes in daily life. However, against the background of the desirability of sustainable development, it is not yet clear whether the use of hydrogen chains can take place in an environmentally responsible way. To this end, the environmental merit of the hydrogen chain would have to be determined first [48].

Environmental merit is an indicator that shows to what extent a change in a product chain may (or may not) be considered a sustainable improvement. This depends on whether the difference in total environmental impact before and after the modification, measured out over the entire chain, works out in a positive or negative way. The indicator is expressed in energy terms with energy (maxi- mum productivity to be generated from a flow of energy or matter) as an assessment variable. In determining the merit, the resulting effects shift and additional positive values which may occur elsewhere in the product chain are considered as well.

Environmental merit gives an ecological assessment of the effect of an act as part of a strategic sustainable strategy [49]. As an operational objective for working towards the sustainable use of material means, it is obvious that one would employ the ideal substance cycle. As an ultimate goal for the energy section, the sustainable hydrogen economy could supply the determining indi- cators for its direction.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Because every human action is accompanied by a need for energy and thus an energy chain can be indicated for every product chain, as a sort of “shadow chain”, the future sustainable use of material means boils down to, to quite a considerable extent, integral life-cycle management in the energy production sector. Every sustainable development should meet the minimum requirement, which states that the total environmental impact of the


energy chains together may not exceed the carrying capacity of the environment.

Such an objective requires a society that sees sustainable use of material means as one of its central goals, both at the conceptual level of value-driven societals, and at the level of individual and social activity. The en- viromentally responsible satisfying of needs is central to the sustainable use of material means. The product is seen primarily as a means to satisfy a need.

Over the whole world, the product unit on the basis of the cost price is now the determining factor for the development of the global economic society. In a future, sustainable society, the product function will have to be the basic unit for economic action. Re-evaluation of needs and need functions is necessary in order to drastically reduce the use of material means and energy consumption. Only through prolonged measures to reduce energy consumption can the exhaustion rate of the remaining environmental reserves be cut back. Cutting back on the wasteful use of energy is of life importance to a distant future, the hydrogen era, since the traditional possibilities of exhaustive cultivation of fossil energy carriers will by then he depleted.

Acknowledgements-The author wishes to thank Bert Don and Bert Melman for their interest and support in helping to bring about this article.

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