Output Margin Profit Probability10000 38 380000 0.2

7000 32 224000 0.55000 24 120000 0.3

E(Margin) (.26*380000)+(.5*224000)+(.3*120000)224000

Output Margin Profit Probability10000 38 380000 0.2

7000 38 266000 0.55000 38 190000 0.3

10000 32 320000 0.27000 32 224000 0.55000 32 160000 0.3

10000 24 240000 0.27000 24 168000 0.55000 24 120000 0.3

E (Margin at 38) 266000

E (Margin at 32) 224000

E (Margin at 24) 168000

10 1410 38/unit 32/unit 24/unit

Expected value $ 224,000.00 $ 266,000.00 $ 224,000.00 $ 168,000.00

E(savings)=(.2*80000)+(.5*60000)+(.3*40000)48000

PW=48000(A/P,.09,10)7478.4

Estimated Savings = 10282.80

Pw of costs =Pw of Benefits

E(savings)=(.2*80000)+(.5*60000)+(.3*40000)E(savings)= 48000

PW of expected value of savings = P(A/P,.09,10)Pw=7478.4Optomistic Most Realistic Pessimistic

Expected Value 24000 30000 12000Present Worth 3739.2 4674 1869.6

E(Adjusted Costs)=(.2*80000^2)+(0.5*60000^2)+(.3*40000^2)3560000000

Sigma=SQRT(E(adjusted)-E(costs))35440.09