hurricane tracking advisory event - willis · in the warning area through saturday night. irene is...
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Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.
Hurricane IreneInformation from NHC Advisory 24A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday August 26, 2011
Hurricane Irene is currently a category 2 hurricane, with re-intensification possible as it reaches the North Carolina coast.
Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC)
Max Sustained Wind Speed:
110 mph (category 2)
Position Relative to Land:
375 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Est. Time & Region: Coast of North Carolina on
SaturdayMin Central Pressure: 945 mb Coordinates: 30.0 N, 77.3 W
Hurricane ForceWinds (74+ mph):
90 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: N or 360 degrees at 14 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind
Speed: 115 mph (category 3)
HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY
eVENT™
Forecast Summary• Within 36 hours, there is a 97% chance Irene will remain at hurricane strength (74+ mph winds), a 3% chance Irene will weaken to a tropical
storm (39-73 mph winds) and a less than 1% chance Irene will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate. • The windfield map – based on the NHC 00:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at
category 2 hurricane strength (96–110 mph winds). The HRWF – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Hurricane Irene by Kinetic Analysis Corp.
• Winds will subside over the northwestern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm force winds are expected within the southern portion of the warning area along the United States east coast by late today, with hurricane force winds expected tonight or early Saturday spreading northward in the warning area through Saturday night. Irene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6-12 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. Storm total rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected over portions of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states along Irene’s path.
• A storm surge will raise water levels 6-11 feet above ground level in the hurricane warning area in North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; a storm surge of 4-8 feet is expected over southern portions on the Chesapeake Bay, and 3-6 feet along the Jersey Shore.
Forecast Track for Hurricane Irene(National Hurricane Center)
Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Hurricane Irene(Based on HRWF as of 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.
Washington D.C.
Hamilton
ChicagoChicago
New YorkNew YorkPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia
MilwaukeeMilwaukee
ClevelandCleveland
CincinnatiCincinnati
PittsburghPittsburgh
Boston
ColumbusIndianapolis
Jacksonville
Atlanta
Charlotte
Nashville
Lake ErieLake Erie
Lake MichiganLake Michigan Lake OntarioLake OntarioLake HuronLake Huron
Lake St. ClaireLake St. Claire
OO hh ii oo
Chicago
New York
Philadelphia
08-28
08-27
08-26
Erie
Macon
Flint
Akron
Mobile
Lowell
Dayton
Durham
Orlando
Windsor
Norfolk
SavannahColumbus
SyracuseRochester
Ann Arbor
Arlington
Knoxville
Clearwater
Manchester
Alexandria
Portsmouth Chesapeake
Evansville
HuntsvilleChattanooga
St. Petersburg
FL
ALGA
PA
IN
NC
VA
NY
OH
MI
TN
SC
WV
ONNS
MA
NJ
CT
NHVTME
MDDE
RI
0 500 1,000250 Miles
HWRF FcstTrackNHC FcstTrackweak TSstrong TSCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5All Fcst Tracks
below 1 in1 - 3 in3 - 6 in6 - 9 in9 - 12 in12 - 24 in
Ï!D TD
Ï!S TS
Ï!1 Cat1
Ï!2 Cat2
Ï!3 Cat3
Ï!4 Cat4
Ï!5 Cat5
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Contact us
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Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone PotentialA hurricane warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours - is in effect for the Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands and Little River Inlet, NC northward to Sandy Hook, NJ including the Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck sounds, and the Delaware and Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A tropical storm warning– meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within 36 hours – is in effect for Edisto Beach, SC northward to Little River Inlet and the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward and the Tidal Potomac. A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area within 48 hours -is in effect for north of Sandy Hook, NJ to the mouth of the Merrimack River, MA including New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Boston, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.
Wind Damage PotentialThe map to the right illustrates the probability of wind damage exceeding 2% of a single family home’s building value. The map shows there is a very broad area forecast to experience winds capable of producing roof and other damages that could exceed 2% of a home’s building value. However, it does not depict that there will be significant variation in damage over the extent of the hurricane’s footprint, based on variation in the type of construction, local variability in the winds, and other factors.
Damage estimates have been calculated from an ensemble of possible landfall scenarios (initialized at 00:00 UTC) for Hurricane Irene, using a representative single family home damage function.
Probability of Wind Damage to a Single Family Home Exceeding 2%
Washington D.C.
New YorkNew York
PhiladelphiaPhiladelphiaBrooklynBrooklyn
ClevelandCleveland
PittsburghPittsburgh
Newark
Norfolk
CharlotteRaleighRaleigh
HartfordHartford
RichmondRichmond
ProvidenceProvidence
ColumbiaColumbia
HarrisburgHarrisburg
CharlestonCharleston
VirginiaVirginia
OhioOhio PennsylvaniaPennsylvania
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
South CarolinaSouth Carolina
West VirginiaWest Virginia
GeorgiaGeorgia
MarylandMaryland New JerseyNew Jersey
ConnecticutConnecticut
KentuckyKentucky
TennesseeTennessee
OhioOhio
Probability of DamageExceeding 2% of Value
Less than 10%10 - 20%20 - 30%30 - 40%40 - 50%50 - 60%60 - 70%70 - 80%80 - 90%Over 90%
0 250 500125 Miles
Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date
Tropical Storm Activity to DateIrene is the ninth named storm and first hurricane of the
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Five named storms and two
hurricanes, Alex and Danielle, had occurred by this date last
year. The next tropical storm of 2011 will be named Jose.
For the years 1995-2010, the average dates of the first
named storm, first hurricane and first major hurricane are
Jul 1, Aug 6 and Aug 30, respectively. Aug 25 and Sep 15 are
the average dates of the fifth and ninth named storms.
Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to DateTropical Storms
AllHurricanes
Cat 3-5 Hurricanes
2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 8/26/11) 9 1 12010 year to date (1/1/10 – 8/26/11) 5 2 01995-2010 season average 14.4 7.9 3.81950-2010 season average 10.5 6.2 2.72011 CSU season forecasts(Colorado State University at Aug 3)
16 9 5
2011 NOAA season forecasts(NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)
14-19 7-10 3-5
Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonAtlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity
(categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the
right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days
with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 26 is 79% for all
hurricanes and 81% for major hurricanes.
Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900
0%
12%
24%
36%
48%
60%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ave
rage
Dai
ly R
isk
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ave
rage
Rem
aini
ng R
isk
All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)