humpback chub that spawn in the lcr: status and drivers€¦ · • majority of chubs recruitment...
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Humpback chub that spawn in the LCR: status and drivers
Annual Reporting for FY16January 24, 2017
Charles B. Yackulic (U.S.G.S. – GCMRC),email: [email protected]
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2
• Majority of chubs recruitment in the LCR.
• Some proportion of juvenile chub leave Little Colorado, and most of this outmigration occurs during july – sept. of their first year.
• Juvenile chub growth is slow in the Colorado River (little to no growth below 12 C). Juvenile chub survival thought to be affected by trout.
• Most adults live in Colorado River and migrate back to Little Colorado to spawn, small proportion of adults appear to live year-round in Little Colorado.
Basics of Chub Life History around the LCR
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Outline
Juvenile recruitment
Juvenile rearing in the Colorado River
Setting a target
Adult body condition and skip-spawning
Future steps
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LCR recruitment is a large contributor to uncertainty in predictions.
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Abu
ndan
ce (1
000s
)
2013 2014 2015 2016
||
||
|
0
10
20
30
40
16307 9065 25481 3059
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
Average LCR early july juvenile abundance (recruitment) ~ 14K.
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Outline
Juvenile recruitment
Juvenile rearing in the Colorado River
Setting a target
Adult body condition and skip-spawning
Future steps
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How do temperature, turbidity, rainbow trout, and density dependence affect juvenile survival, growth and capture?
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Model improvements
Now deal with uncertainty in rainbow trout abundance (joint population model).
Test alternative hypotheses about density dependence.
Two forms of model selection: Out of sample prediction.
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Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Juvenile humpback chub survival is negatively related to increased rainbow trout abundances. This is the most consistent relationship across years.
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Growth of juvenile chub is higher under warm and turbid conditions.Growth declines when abundances are greater (density dependence).
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Temperature is the primary driver of juvenile chub detection probability, but rainbow trout also affect chub detection.
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Outline
Juvenile recruitment
Juvenile rearing in the Colorado River
Setting a target
Adult body condition and skip-spawning
Future steps
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Given our understanding of HBC life-history (and associated uncertainty), what is the average annual juvenile survival required to maintain a population of 7000…and how does this also depend on juvenile recruitment estimates.
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Outline
Juvenile recruitment
Juvenile rearing in the Colorado River
Setting a target
Adult body condition and skip-spawning
Future steps
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Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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2010-2014
2010-2014
2015-2016
2015-2016
Both smaller and larger adults are spawning less frequently
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Adult HBC numbers appear stable.
Preliminary data. Do not cite.
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Take home messages Adult populations appear stable, however adults
remain skinny and rates of spawning are low.
Rainbow trout negatively effect juvenile chub survival, however, the effect is modest. They also affect chub detection.
Temperature, turbidity, and density drive growth.
Juvenile recruitment may determine whether rainbow trout management is necessary.
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Outline
Juvenile recruitment
Juvenile rearing in the Colorado River
Setting a target
Adult body condition and skip-spawning
Future steps
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Future steps
Continue HBC field sampling in LCR and CR, including juvenile recruitment estimation.
Increase use of remote sensing array in both CR and LCR and integrate data into our population models.
Explore feasibility of JCM-like sampling at a western Grand Canyon site.
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Acknowledgements Mike Yard , Josh Korman, Ted
Kennedy, Mike Dodrill, David Ward, Luke Avery, Scott Vanderkooi
US Fish and Wildlife Service Near Shore Ecology Group David Ward, Luke Avery, Michael
Dodrill and others involved with July LCR
Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Group
Bureau of Reclamation Navajo Nation Department of Fish
and Wildlife