http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/

Global warming:How much?How fast?

Is our climate changing?

YES – according to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), summarizing the work of 2,000 of the world's top climate experts. For example:Winter snow cover is decreasing Lakes and rivers are less frozen in winterGlaciers are retreatingSea Level is rising

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/

Source: Global Warming Art

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:McCarty_Glacier_jpg

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise_png

Source: Global Warming Art,Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png

1901 - 20000.57 ± 0.17 °C

Ice Core sample taken from drill. Photo by Lonnie Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/gallery.html

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison_png

How is temperature determined? Temperature proxies: - tree rings- lake sediments- ice cores

What is causing the world to warm up?

Most scientists blame industrialization since the 19th century, including:

Greenhouse gas emissions from burning of fossil fuels

Deforestation, which reduces global capacity to absorb CO2

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/

Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927)

Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist, is credited with discovery of the “greenhouse gas” effect

In 1896, he recognized the role of CO2 emissions in global warming

He expected CO2 doubling to take 3000 years; it is now expected to take about one century

NACC/USGCP graphic

Charles Keeling, 1928-2005Professor of OceanographyScripps Institute, CA

Charles Keeling, an American oceanographer, confirmed the rise of CO2 using very precise measurements

His first data, from California, showed the effects of pollution

In 1956 he moved his equipment to Mauna Loa (Hawaii) were he discovered the “Keeling curve”

Source: Global Warming Art

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide_png

The Keeling Curve

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev_png

Increase in atmospheric CO2 is linked to fossil fuel burning

Not all CO2 end in the atmosphere; some is absorbed by oceans and biosphere

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr_Rev_png

Human activities have driven CO2 to highest levels in millions of years

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/gallery/cmdl_overview/Slide11

Source: NOAA

Top five greenhouse gases

Reductions in CFC concen-tration shows that inter-national co-operation works

What are the predicted long-term effects?

A rise of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius in the global mean surface temperature over the next 100 yearsMore floods, intense storms, heat waves and

droughts. Polar ice could melt in summer by 2100Endangered species: caribou, muskox,

reindeer, polar bearsRadical changes in lifestyle for Inuit and other

northern residents

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/

12/photogalleries/global_warming/photo3.html

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Predictions_png

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Predictions_Map_jpg

Based on large-scale computer simulations (Global Circulation Models, or GCMs)

IPCC forecast for sea level rise and flooding

http://www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/IPCC-SRES-scenarios-consequences.htm

18 cm by 2040 and 48 cm by 2100

A total of about 3,250 km2 of the Larson B ice shelf disintegrated in a 35-day period beginning on 31 January 2002, forming a plume of thousands of icebergs adrift in the Weddell Sea. The worst case scenario? Collapse of the Ross Ice shelf could lead to sea level rise of 5m.

Male, the capital city of the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean.

Source: National Geographic Society

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/photogalleries/global_warming/photo5.html

1 meter 2 meters

4 meters 8 meters

Source: NOAA

http://www.firstpeople.us/pictures/bear/Snow-On-Snout-Polar-Bear-1600x1200.html

Extinct: Golden Toad, Costa RicaCause: global warming dried up ponds

Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Source: NOAA

Bleached Coral

What is the Kyoto protocol?

An international agreement calling for staged reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, starting with most developed nationsSigned in 1997, it took effect Feb. 16, 2005141 countries have signed on, including every industrialized country except the U.S., Australia and Monaco

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/

1. Sweden2. United Kingdom

3. Denmark4. Malta

5. Germany6. Argentina7. Hungary

8. Brazil9. India

10. Switzerland

47. Australia48. South Korea

49. Iran50. Thailand51. Canada

52. Kazakhstan53. U.S.A.54. China

55. Malaysia56. Saudi Arabia

UN Climate Conference, KenyaNov. 6-17, 2006

Top 10 countries

UN Climate Conference, KenyaNov. 6-17, 2006

Bottom 10 countries

London Free Press, Nov. 15, 2006

http://www.inkcinct.com.au/Web/Global-Cartoons-List/Social-General-Environment.htm