howey/gauge: blowouts & burners

Politics Indiana V15 N12

Daniels has 31% lead;McCain up 2% over Obama; Rep. Souder losing to MontaganoBy BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-Ablowout.Abarnburner.Andthecrestofanationalwave? That,inessence,iswhatthefourthHowey/GaugePollrevealsabouttheNov.4electionjustsevendaysaway.Gov.MitchDanielshasahuge61-30percentleadoverDemocratJillLongThompsoninwhatlookstobetheblowout.RepublicanJohnMcCainhasa47-45percentleadoverBarackObamaintheIndianapresidentialbarnburner,butdespitethatlead,HPIandtheGaugeMarketResearchpollstersbelievethatObama’sgroundgamecouldmakethedifference.Andinthe3rdCD-whichwedesignatedasouroutlierracemonthsago-U.S.Rep.MarkSouderisingravedangerof

“I never got any complaints about her. I’d say she was fine. I don’t recall anything remarkable one way or another.” - Former USDA Secretary Dan Glickman on Jill Long Thompson, his under secretary

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008

See Page 4

Gauging Daniels era

Howey/Gauge: Blowouts & Burners

beingwashedoutinthiswaveafterrisingtopowerinasimilarwavein1994.Hetrails26-year-oldDemocratMichaelMontagano44-41percentwithSouder’sre-electstandingatananemic35percentwhilethe“electedsomeonenew”stoodat50percent. Theotheremergingstoryisonewe identified in early October: who willhavethelongercoattails,ObamaorDaniels?Inthetwostatewideraces

Howey/Gaugepolled,therewerehugepoolsofundecidedvoters.Intheattorneygeneralrace,

By BRIAN A. HOWEY NASHVILLE, Ind. - When I ponder the first term ofGov.MitchDaniels,Ican’thelpbutthinkofthosespringdaysin2005whenheappearedinsomeofthe

mostRepublicancitiesinthestate- Shelbyville, Plainfield, Greenfield, Noblesville-seekingafoodandbeveragetaxtopluga$48millionfundingholeforanNFLstadiumandconventioncenter...inIndia-napolis.OnehearingtookplaceintheHamiltonCountyCouncilCham-bers under the motto: “That gov-ernmentisbestthatgovernsleast.”Withlocallegislatorscoweringandnot an Indianapolis official in sight,

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HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008

Danielsessentiallypersuadedsevenoftheeightcountycouncilstovoteforthetax(mostunanimously),halfofwhichwouldendupintheirowneconomicdevelopmentcoffers. In the modern eraofHoo-sierpolitics,noothergovernorwouldhaveeventouchedthesubjectofataxincrease.ThemarvelofGov.Daniels is this is not a political figure constantlycheckingthepollsorconsultingfocusgroups.Thepoliticalequationwasconsistentlydismissedinlightofgoodpublicpolicy,evenifIndianapolis(nottheLAColts)areonly3-4.It’snoteworthythatthistaxissue-whichinpastdayscouldhavebeenathirdrailonre-election-hasn’tevensurfacedinthecurrentcampaign. Between2005and2006-with a Republican legislature - deficit spendingwaswipedawaywithabal-ancedbudget.Abipartisaneffortontelecommunicationsreformin2006broughtbroadbandservicestomorethan100ruralcommunities,creat-ingmorethan2,000newjobsacrossthestateand$500millioninprivateinvestmentfromcompaniesrangingfromAT&TtoSmithvilleTelephone. Themostcontroversial

steps also occurred in this era: the MajorMovesprogramthatbroughtin$3.8billionthathasallowedtheI-69extension,theU.S.31freeway,newOhioRiverbridgestoKentucky,andthispastweektheHoosierHeartlandCorridor.Whilethispolarizedtheleg-islaturelargelyalongpartylines,theInternationalBrotherhoodofElectricalWorkers,theIndiana-KentuckyCouncilofCarpentersandMillrights,thecorngrowers,thecoalcouncil,thebricklay-ers,thepackers,theAsphaltPaverAssociation,theChamber,theRealtors,HoosierVoicesforI-69,theU.S.31Coalition,IndianaAssociationofCit-iesandTowns,NorthwesternIndianaBuilding&ConstructionTradesCouncil,theirbrothersinSt.JoeValley,thesheetmetalworkers,theTeamstersallsignedon. Northwest Indiananowhas$100millionwiththeRegionalDevelop-mentAuthorityandcountiestotheeastreceived$40millionwindfallswhenstatesandcountiesacrossAmericaarefacinginfrastructureshortfalls,drainedtransportationtrustfundsandhighertaxes. Therewerefurthercontro-versiesinvolvingtheBureauofMotorVehicles-includingthewrathofthe

Gov . Daniels sold an NFL stadium in Indianapolis to conservative Republicans in Green-field in 2005. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)


then-SenatePresidentBobGartonovertheproposedclosingoftheHopebranch.In2008,BMVwasreceivingnationalhonorsandpeople were finding seven-minute waitinglinesandplatingopportu-nitiesinautodealerships. Thereare800newchildprotectiveservicecaseworkersandanewdivisiondedicatedtothatcause.CitiesandtownshavebeenpaidofffromthesmokeandmirrordaysofpastStatehousebudgetshenanigans.Schoolshavenotonlyseenbudgetincreases,but$600millioninmoresmokeandmirrorbudgetgimmickshavebeenpaidback.Full-daykindergarten-theNo.1priorityofthreeDemocraticgovernors-hasexpandedunderthisonefrom22,000in2004to46,000in2008. Between 2005 and2008,thestatehascut$127millionfromschoolconstructionprojectsandlocaltaxrates($86.5milliondenied;$40.66millionmodified) as this governor took aim at TajMahalbuildingsandAstroturfedprepstadiums. WhentheDemocratstooktheHousein2006,didprogressgrindtoahalt?No.Therewasasecondbalancedbudgetandasurpluswhenmoststatesareseeingredink.Abipartisan-sup-portedcigarettetax(includingthreequartersoftheDemocrats)hasaddedtensofthousandsofHoosierstohealthinsurancerolls.Therewasthelandmarkpropertytaxreformthatprovides$1.72intaxreliefforevery$1increaseinthesalestax.Thestatehasassumedschooloperationalfund-ing(allowingstudentstheabilitytotransfertoanyschooltheywishtoattendwithoutadditionaltuition).Thestateisnowhelpingmunicipalitiesbyassumingoneofthebiggestburdens they faced - police and fire pensions. Remember how Gov. Joe KernanusedSiteSe-lectionMagazinein2004topaintarosypicture?InJanu-ary2008,SiteSelectionwaslavishingpraiseonIndiana’sadvances in life sciences: CEO Marvin Richardson Arcadia HealthcarehadconsideredexpansioninhishomestateofMichigan.“ThebottomlinewasthatIwasdrivingfromMinneapolistoRochesterandthephoneranganditwasGov.MitchDaniels,”Richardsonrecalls.“Hetookpersonalinterestinourbusinessandtooktimetounderstandourneeds.Wetalkedatleastthreetimesandmettwice.He

hasasolidgraspofthetypesofbusinesseshewantstodraw.Wedevelopedarelationshipthattran-scendedanythingweweredoing.”Arcadiaisinvesting$3millionfor400jobsby2010. Honda Civics arenowrollingofftheGreensburgas-semblylinewhere2,000peoplewillsoonbeemployed.It’spartof$18.4billioninbusinessinvest-ments,with75,800jobsinthepipeline(including1,400atthe

nowsuspendedGetragTransmis-sionplantatTipton).Incomparison,theO’Bannon-Kernanadministrationattracted7,226jobsin2003and8,519in2004.Therearenewarrivalsandexpansionsatfamiliar names: Cummins, Toyota, Dreyfus, Medco,RealCoolFoods,InteractiveIntel-ligenceandBP. WhileDemocratJillLongThomp-sonhastakenaimatDanielsoverjobs,here’swhatCarolRogers,deputydirectoroftheIndianaBusinessResearchCenteratIU,saysaboutthestate’s2,974,800jobsin September - nearing the all-time record: “Weseemtobebufferedfromtheworsteffects”oftheeconomicdownturn.IBMGlobalBusinessServicesreportedthatIn-dianaisnumberonepercapitaforinterna-tionaljobattractionandnumbertwooverallforattractingforeignproductionjobsin2007.THeIBRC’sTimothySlapernotedthe5,000newjobscreatedbydirectforeigninvestmentin2007alone. Northwest Indiananowhas$100millionwiththeRegionalDevelop-

mentAuthority,“Forpurposesyouwilldecide,”thegover-noroncetoldLakeCountySurveyorGeorgeVanTil. Indiana is now home to the largest coal gasifica-tionfacilityintheworld.Thereareethanolplantsandwindturbinespoppingupacrossthestate.Agovernorisadis-tributorandsynthesizerofinformation.“Well,Itrytobe,”Danielstoldmeacoupleofyearsago.“Ibelievethereisavitalroleforpublicactivitytocreatetheconditionsforinge-nuity to flourish. Why is biofuel taking off in Indiana right now?Inpartbecausewegotorganized,gotataxcredit,wentoutandstartedmarketingthestate,madesurewebuildtheroadsandthingsandalltherightpreconditions.Butthemainreasonisthepriceofoilwentup.Andnowsomebodycanmakeabuck.” There’s one more thing about Gov. Daniels: he will havewontwotermsasgovernorwithoutrunningnegative,

Gov. Mitch Daniels leaves his cam-paign office and heads out on RV1 for the last time this morning. (HPI Phobos by Brian A. Howey


RepublicanGregZoellerleadsDemocratLindaPence30-24percent.Inthesuperintendentrace,RepublicanTonyBen-netthada22-18percentleadwith60percentundecided.“Therearesomanynewvot-erslookingatthetopoftheticket,”saidHowey/GaugePollsterHollyDavis.“Theyhavenotbeenconcentratingondownballotraces.” This“coattails”debateisraginginthepar-ties,campaignsandpunditrycirclesandtherearenoclearanswerswiththisorotherpolls.WebelievethatObamawillhaveanimpactinIndianaHouseracesinthecollegetownsofMarion,GreencastleandWestLafay-ettethathaveAfrican-Ameri-

canprecincts.Inothers,likeHD63,webelieveDanielsmaybemoreofaforce. Howey/Gauge’sstatewidesurveyincluded600likelyvotersonOct.23-24witha+/-4.1percentmarginoferror.The3rdCDsurveyoccurredonthesamedateswith300likelyvotersanda+/-5.7percentmargin.The

statewidesurveyincludedan8percentAfrican-Ameri-cansample,23percentCatholic,42percentProt-estant,14percentBaptistorBiblechurch,andthepartysplitwas47percenttotalRepublican,41percenttotalDemocrat.Completely“independent”stoodat11percentwhile14percentconsideredthemselves“in-dependentDemocrat”and14percent“independentRepublican.”WhileHowey/GaugegivesMcCaina2percentlead,

personaladsagainsthisopponents.Towinwithoutdoingthatthisyearwillbe...extraordinary. There are many Hoosierswhodon’tlikethegovernor,andattimesDanielsangersfriendandfoealike.ButwithDaniels,thereisaplanthathasbeenexecuted.Inthecomingyears,wewilllikelyseevigorousreformsandopportunitiesineducationandgovernmentrestructur-ing. Overthepastthreeyears,I’vewrittenrepeatedlyhowDemocratsneededtocultivateideasandacompetingvision.Whenitcametothepropertytaxreforms,therewerenonefromthelegislatureorthethreeDemocraticgubernatorialprimarycandidates.InhercriticismofMajorMoves,Thompsonsaidheralternativewouldbetosimplyattract“morefederaldollars”evenasthenationaltrans-portationtrustfundisrunningonfumes. What we endedupwithwerecampaignsbyJimSchellingerandThompsonthathavebeentwooftheworstexecutedinmodernIndianapolitics,despiteagrow-ingnationalDemocraticwave.Theyhavelargelyfailedtodevelopandcommunicateacompetingvision,orevenbuildthenecessarycoalitionswithintheirownparty. AsecondDanielstermis,thus,likelycomeNov.4. ForDemocratswhomightbeangeredbythiscolumn,thechallengeIthrowistostartthinkingaboutavisionandwho-beitBartPeterson,GrahamRichard,Rog-elioDominguez,JonathanWeinzapfel,ViSimpsonorJohnGregg-willbepreparedtobuildanddeliverastheDanielserapassesfromourmidst.v

Howey/Gauge,from page 1

Howey-Gauge Poll Briefing 3 p.m. Tuesday Oct. 28 Conference Call Call: 866-809-6529 Passcode: 6033366#

Obama-McCain Daniels-Thompson-Horning AG/Supt 3rd CD

www.HoweyPolitics.com


ouranalysisisthatthisraceisatruetossupand,giventheunprece-dentedgroundgametheObamacampaignhasstaged with 47 offices andatechnologicaledgeinvoteroutreach,itwouldbenosurprisetoseeIndianagoblueforthe first time since 1964. FormerBushWhiteHousepoliticalstrate-gistKarlRoveagrees,movingIndiana,Ohio,ColoradoandVirginiaintotheObamacolumnon“FoxNewsSunday.” Thiscomesun-derthebackdropofpollsthathavebeenalloverthespectrum.JustlastweekaZogbyInternationalPollhadMcCainupby10per-centwhiletheBig10BattlegroundPollhadObamaleadingby10percentinIndiana. Perhapsthekeystatisticcomesonthedualright/wrongtrackquestions.TheIndiananumbersstoodat48/31percent,comparedto12/76percentnationally.TheIndiananumbershaveactuallyimprovedsinceourAugustsurveywhentheystoodat47/35percent.ThereinliestherationaleastohowDanielscanbuckanationaltrendthatthreatenstoswampotherRepublicans.“Peopleareclearlydrawingtheline,”saidDavis.Hadthosenumbersalignedclosertothedismalnationalspread,itwouldhavebeenaclearsignalthatDaniels’re-electwasintrouble.” Thosesurveyedwereaskedtonametheirtopis-sueand26percentsaidjobsandwages,20percentsaidtaxes,10percentsaidtheeconomy,9percenteducation,9percenthealthcareand4percentgasolineprices.NotasinglevotermentionedDaylightSavingTime,anissuetheIndianapolisStarsuggestedinanewsstoryacoupleofweeksagocouldcauseDanielsproblemsduetoatimeswitchthisSunday. Hoosiersopposedthefederalbailout/rescueplan,46-37percent,whichisacluetoRep.Souder’stroubles.Those“strongly”opposingthepackagestoodat32percentwhileonly11percent“strongly”favoredtheplan.

Indiana Presidential McCain’s2-percentleadisalmostidenticaltoourAug.29-30surveyinwhichMcCainled45-43percent.Inthe October numbers, both candidates have solidified their basewithonly8percentofRepublicansfavoringObama

and7percentoftheDemocratsfavoringMcCain.TroublingforObamaisthat32percentofHillaryClintonprimaryvotersarebackingMcCain.Obamaleadswithindependentsbyanarrow39-37percent.AndwhitevotersfavorMcCain53-39percent,comparedto50-38percentinAugust.IfObamacanbringhiswhitevotersupportupintothemid-40s,itcouldbeapathtovictory. Askedonascaleof1to10whattheir“levelofinterest”intheNovemberelectionis,threeoutoffourvotersareveryinterestedaswell85percentofAfrican-Americans.Obama’sfav/unfavsstoodat49/40percentwhileMcCainstoodat52/34percent.Sowhatwesee

here is a McCain advantage in confidence while Obama has enthusiasmandenergy. TheintangibleishowdynamictheObamaground

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Tuesday Oct. 28, 2008

gamewillbecomparedtothe“old-fashioned”McCaineffort.LakeCountySurveyorGeorgeVanTiltoldHPIonMondaythathehaswatchedinamazementat500peopleadaywaitingpatientlyinthefoyeroftheLakeCountyGov-ernmentCenterinCrownPointlastweek.“Itwasdoublethattoday,”VanTilsaid.“Theywereold,young,black,white,Hispanic.Youcanseeabsolutedeterminationontheirfaces.”Henotedthatinotherelections,delayscausedvoters to fidget, complain or leave. “These people are wait-ingpatiently.Peopleareunhappyandscared.Peoplejustwantchange.”ThereweresimilarstoriesinIndianapolis,whereearlyvotingwaitinglinesinWashingtonTownshipwereuptotwoorthreehoursovertheweekend.SourcestoldHPIthat2,000votedattheJ.EverettLightCenteratNorthCentralHSonMonday.Therehavebeen286,000earlyvotersthisyear,comparedto260,550in2004.InIndianapolistherehavebeen80,000. AskedwhatkindofpluralityObamamighthavecomingoutofLakeCounty,VanTilsaiditwouldbeinthe75,000to80,000range(asoppsedtoaSelzer/Indianapo-

lisStar/WTHR-TVpollinSeptemberthathadMcCainleadingthere).IndianaDemocraticChairmanDanParkersaidObama’spluralitycouldtop100,000votesinbothLakeCountyandIndianapolis. VanTilcalledtheObamawave“sobigthatitcouldsweepoutsomepeoplewhoneverexpectedit.” Overthepastseveralweeks,theObamacampaignhasmadefour“touches”atmyBroadRipplehome,includ-ingweekendcanvassingandaphonecalltothehomeatdinnertimeMondayfromawomanurgingusto“voteear-ly.”Shewantedtoknowifweknewwheretheearlyvotingcenterwas.PriortotheMayprimary,theObamacampaignmade five touches to our home. And how has the McCain campaigncompeted?WereceivedamailerfromtheIndi-anaStateRepublicanPartytellingus,“ThisisthestoryofWilliamAyers...terrorist,radical,friendofObama.”ThereisaphotoofObamanexttoaSept.11,2001,NewYorkTimes quote from Ayers: “I don’t regret setting bombs. I feelwedidn’tdoenough.” Inspirational.

Tuesday Oct. 28, 2008Page7

Indiana Governor Danielsispoisedforaresound-ingvictory.ThegovernorleadsintheFortWaynemediamarket63-31percent;inSouthBend66-31percent;Indianapolis65-29percent;Louisville64-25percent;whiletheChicagomarketistiedat44percent.ThompsonleadsamongAfrican-Americansbyonlya56-41percentmar-gin.Daniels’standingwithAfrican-Ameri-canshasincreased14percentsinceourAugustpoll.Danielsiswinning37percentoftheDemocraticvote-morethanoneinthree-andamongindependents64-21percent. Danielsisalsogetting40percentoftheObamavote.Gov.Daniels’re-electstoodat59/33percent.MitchDanielsre-electsupportisamongthestrongestinthenationforaRepublicanholdingamajor office, Davis said. Thompson’snameIDisatalow84percentwithonly61percentmaintain-ingahardopinion,thoughitwasupfrom77percentinAugust.Normallyaguberna-torialnomineewouldbeinthe90thper-centile.RunningmateDennieOxleyII’snameIDisstillapaltry16percentandheappearstobehavingabsolutelynoim-pactinSouthernIndiana,whichwastherationaleforhisplacementontheticket.Thompson’sfavorable/unfavorablesstoodat35/26percent,upfrom32/19percentintheAugustsurvey.Thosenumbershadbothincreasedby10percentfromourAprilsurvey.Daniels’fav/unfavsstoodat61/24percent. Thenumbersbearoutouranaly-sis: that the Thompson campaign is one of theworstgubernatorialcampaignswe’veeverwitnessed.Essentially,therehasbeenonlyoneactivecampaign.Votersdidn’tseeThompsonrunningTVadsformostofthefall,thoughshedidrunsomeinAugustandthenresumedlastweek.AnycompetentcampaignwouldhavebeenpoisedtoruntheirTVcampaignbeginningnolaterthanLaborDayandstayingupthroughtheelection. ThompsonfailedtobringintheestablishmentsegmentofthepartythatbackedJimSchellingerintheprimary,feudedwithlabor,wasunabletoearnandex-ploit party endorsements from figures like U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh,formerGov.JoeKernan,orformerFirstLadyJudyO’Bannon.Anyofthemcouldhavehelpedherretrievethe

hugesegmentoftheDemocraticbasedefectingtoDan-iels.LakeCountySurveyorVanTilcalledThompson’sLakeCountycampaign“almostnon-existent.” TheotherpartofthatstoryisthattheDanielscampaignsoughtearlyinthesequencetoseparateIndi-anafromanationaldynamic.Itappearsthatthestrategyisworking,giventhenationalwavethatappearstobedevelopingaroundtheObamacampaign.Havingsaidthat,


sincelastspringwehavenotedthatDanielsandObamabotharechangeagentsandarefeedingoffmuchofthesameenergy.That’swhythegovernorgetting40percentoftheObamavoteisnosurprise. Howey/Gaugehasconsis-tentlyhadDanielsinthe50thper-centileandThompsoninthe30th.TheunexplainedanomaliescameinlateSeptemberandearlyOctoberwhentwoResearch2000pollsandtheSelzerpollhadtheraceanywherefroma1to4percentDanielslead.AnewResearch2000pollshowsDanielsup53-41percent.Wefoundithardtofind many Democrats outside of the Thompsoncampaignwhobelievedthat.OneDemocraticsourcetoldHPIthatpartyinternalsshowDanielsleadingThompsonanywherefrom18to27percent.“Wecan’ttrustthepublicpolling,”thesourcesaid.“Therealwildcardthisyearisthatthemodelingmethodshaven’tkeptup.” LibertarianAndrewHorning(witha29percentnameIDand12percent“hardrecognition”)polled3percent.Incontrast,Lt.Gov.BeckySkillmanhad54percenttotalaware-nessand30percenthardrecognition.Skillman’sfav/unfavsstoodat24/5percent. TodayDanielsbeginshis“FinalMileTour”thatrunsthroughSouthernIndiana.CampaignManagerEricHol-combtoldHPItoexpectmorejobannouncementsinthecomingdays.

3rd CD Ouranalysislastspringwasthatifweweretalkingaboutthe3rdCDinlateOctober,therewouldbeanationalwavedeveloping.SohereweareandHowey/GaugehasMontaganoleadingRep.Souder44-41percent.Montaganohascampaignedhardandhas83percentnameID.Soud-er’sre-electstandsat35percentandthosesayingtheywanttoelectsomeonenewisat50percent.IntheFortWaynemediamarket,itstoodat53percent. Souder’sfav/unfavstoodat42/33percent,Monta-gano’sat33/22percent.MontaganoleadsinAllenCounty50-40 percent and 48/38 percent among self-identified independents. ThispollwastakenafterthenewsmediabegancoveringthestoryofMontagano’sfatherbuyinghima

$326,000homewhilethecandidate-participatinginthefirst election where he would be eligible for Congress - has nodiscernibleincome. The party identification stood at 47 percent Repub-licanand39percentDemocratwith14percentindepen-dent.

About Howey/Gauge Howey/GaugefollowsAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchdisclosureguidelines.Ourmeth-odologyhasbeenacceptedbyanumberofnationalnewsorganizationsandatRealClearPolitics.com.Ourtoplinesarepublishedatwww.howeypolitics.comandatgaugemarket-research.com.Sponsorsofthe2008Howey/GaugePollingSeriesincludeAnthem,CentaurGaming,DukeEnergy,andtheGreaterIndianapolisChamberofCommerce.Withouttheirstewardshipthispollingprogramwouldnothavebeenpossible. FollowingtheNov.4election,wewillpresentourpollingdataandanalysis(aswellasourmediacompeti-tors)andcomparethemtoactualelectionresults.v


Can Obama win Indiana?By JACK COLWELL SOUTHBEND-Yes,hecanwinIndiana.Thepossibilitygrows.Butit’snotyetaprobability.AndwhatdifferencewoulditmakeintheElectoralCollege,wherethepresidencyisdecided? PollsshowBarackObamahasachancetowinIn-diana,astatethathasn’tgonefortheDemocraticnominee

forpresidentsince1964.Willhe? EverypollalsoshowsthatObama’ssupportisstrongest_overwhelminglyso_amongregisteredvotersaged18-29.Registered,yes,inrecordnumbers.Butwillyoungpeople,whotraditionallyhavelowvoterparticipation,actuallygettothepollswiththeenthusiasticsurgethatObamaneeds? Iftheydo,ObamacouldwinIndianaandwinbignationally.Iftheydon’t,JohnMcCainwillwinIndiana

andcouldputtogetherthekeystatesforacome-from-be-hindvictory. Thereareofcourseotherfactors.Oneistheoft-citedBradleyeffect,namedafterTomBradley,theAfricanAmerican who led significantly in polls but then lost for governorofCaliforniain1982.Thetheorywasbornthatapotentiallydecisivenumberofwhitevoterswillsay_topollstersandperhapstothemselves_thattheywillvoteforablackcandidatebutthenwon’tdosointhevotingbooth. AnothercouldbecalledtheBusheffect.That’sthetheorythatsomepeopleleaningtowardMcCainwilldecidefinally that they cannot support a presidential candidate withthesamepoliticalbrandasPresidentBush. IndianaisinplaythispresidentialelectionbecauseObamatargetedit. ObamahasmadefrequentcampaignappearancesinIndiana,includingonThursday,theonestopheaddedbefore flying to Hawaii to see his gravely ill grandmother. He has established campaignheadquartersalloverthestateandhasspentheavilyonTVadvertisinginIndiana.TheChicagoTribunereportsthattheObamacam-paign,seekingtoreachvotersinnorthwestIndiana,spent$1milliononChicagotelevisionstationsbymid-Octoberandexpectstospendanother$1milliononpricyChicagoairtimebyelectionday. McCainbasicallyhastakenIndianaforgranted,thewayRepublicanpresidentialnomineeshavebeenabletodo,devotingtimeandresourcesinsteadtostateslikeOhioandFlorida,therecentdecisivebattlegrounds. At first there was suspicion that Obama was just pretendingtotargetIndianainsteadofwritingitoffas

hopeless,asotherDemocraticpresidentialnomineeshavedone.WashejusttryingtosuckerMcCainintowastingsomeoftheRepublicannominee’smorelimitedresourcesinIndiana? McCainwasn’tsuckered.It’snotthatMcCaindoesn’tcareaboutHoosiers.Hewantsandneedstheirvotes.Buthehadnochoice.Ifhecan’tcountonstateslikeIndiana,heisn’tgoingtobepresident. Obamawasseriousaboutanall-outeffortinIndi-ana. In addition to the overwhelming advantageintheair,withallthoseTVads,heseekstowinonthegroundaswell,withaget-out-the-voteefforttodepriveRepublicansoftheadvantagetheyhadinthelasttwopresidentialelections. So,willIndianamatter? ItwilltoMcCain.Hemustwinalmostallofthestatesnowlistedastoss-upsincomputersitessuchasRealClearPoliticstoordertoreachthemagic270electoraltotalforvictory.Indianaislistedasatoss-up. ItwilltoObama.IfhewinsastatelikeIndiana,itlikelywillbepartofalarge,impressivevictorynationwide,notsomenarrowwin finally eked outinrecountsandcontroversy. Therecouldevenbetheunlikelysitu-ationofIndianaasthestateonwhichthepresi-dencyrestsascountingcon-tinuesintoearlymorninghours. OntheRealClearPoliticselectoralmap,it’spossibletochangestatesfromonecandidatetotheothertotestvariousscenarios.IfMcCainwonFloridaandOhio,camebacktowinstatesonlyjustleaningtowardObamaand_withIndianastillundecided_gotalloftheothertoss-upstates, the electoral totals would be: McCain, 268; Obama, 259.McCainonlytwoelectoralvotesshort.Obamaonly11away.AndIndiana’s11electoralvotesstillundecided. What a change thatwouldbeforastatethatfordecadesdidn’tmatter,writtenoffashopelessbyoneside,takenforgrantedbytheother.v

Colwell has been covering Indiana politics over five decades for the South Bend Tribune.

Gov. Daniels hands off the mic to John Mc-Cain last February in McCain’s only town hall appearance here in the state. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Tuesday Oct. 28, 2008Page10

So what should you do with your money now?By MORTON J. MARCUS INDIANAPOLIS-Oneofmyfriendssuggeststhat2008isforeconomistswhat1492wasforcartographers.It’sanappealinganalogy.Thesmartmoneywasbettingonadventurersseekinganewroutetountoldriches.Whattheexplorersfoundwasnottheendoftheearth,butanew,unchartedlandtowhichtheywouldbringdiseaseandcalamity.Intime,thenewlandswouldberesettledand

becomeproductive.Possibly,inourtime,wewilllearntolivecomfortably in the new finan-cialworldwehavecreated. Sowhatshouldwedonow?HowshouldyouandI,peoplewhothinkofthemselvesasprudent,dealwiththefinancial crisis that is morph-ing into a significant economic downturn?TheWallStreetandMainStreetexpertstellustoholdtight,don’tpanic,anddon’tsell.

That’sprettygoodadvicefrompeoplewhomighthavenoideawhatyoushoulddowithwhatevermoneyyouwouldgetfromsellingoffthebiglosersinyourportfolio.It’salsogoodadvicefrompeoplewhodonotwanttoseethegeneralpublicsellingmorestockanddrivingpriceslower.Itmightgetpeopletothinkaboutotherinvestmentvehiclesinthefuture. Weweretheoneswhoboughtintotheideathatthestockmarketwouldalwaysbeourbestbetdespiteitsfluctuations. We tolerated the irresponsible suggestion that ourSocialSecuritymoneyshouldbeputatriskinthestockmarket.Wewantedtoinvestforthelongtermyetboughtfinancial instruments that can change in value at electronic speed. A man recently askedme,“Ifyousuddenlycameintoawholelotofmoney,howwouldyouuseit?”It’sagoodquestionatanytime.MyanswerwasthatIwould pay off my mortgage first. Then I would put aside fundsfortheeducationofmygrandchildren. Basically,itisthesameanswerIhavegiveneverytimeovertheyearsthatIhavebeenaskedthatsamequestion.First,getdebtfree.Second,investinyourfamily’shumancapital. Americanshaveaccepteddebtasawayoflife.Wedon’tsavetoconsume;weconsumeandhopethatsome-day (with the help of inflation) we can pay back in depre-ciated dollars. That new flat screen HD-TV? You want it

now, get it now! In fact, get two so you don’t have to fight the kids or your significant other for the “good” set. When youpayitoff,withoutdoubt,yourincomewillbehighersothatthedebtwon’tmeanasmuch.Andyoudon’thavetobemoreproductivetogetpaidmore;allyouhavetodoisinsistona“fair”cost-of-livingadjustment. Yes, first get rid of debt. Theninvestinyourfamily’s capabilities to be qualified and productive citizens. Todaywethinkabouteducationintermsofincreasedin-come.But,asyoumayhaveheard,moneydoesnotqualifyapersontobeagoodcitizen.Knowledgeofhistory,law,literature,grammar,mathematics,thesciences,thearts,diversecultures–allthecomponentsofaliberaleducation–arenecessaryforanadulttobeacontributingmemberofsociety.Itisaliberaleducationbecausesuchlearningfreestherecipienttothinkclearlyandthusevaluatealter-natives. And,ifIhadanymoneyleftover,I’dgiveittoorganizationsthatimprovemycommunity.Inthesetoughtimes,manypeoplewillreducetheirphilanthropicdona-tions.Nowisnotthetimetodothat.Nowisthetimetorememberthemuseums,thezoo,publicbroadcasting,aswellasthesymphonyandthetheater.Itisthetimetorememberthesheltersforthehomelessandtheabused, Normally, at Thanksgiving andChristmaswespendexcessiveamountsongiftsanddecorations.Thisyear,startingnow,ifwemustcutback,let’sdosointel-ligently.Let’sthinkaboutwhatisbestforusandourcommunityinthelongterm.TherewardswillbethereinaJoyousNewYear.

Mr. Marcus is an independent economist, speaker, and writer formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Busi-ness. Contact Marcus for a speaking engagement at [email protected] or 317-626-8853. v

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www.howeypolitics.com


Obama’s ground game TheObamacampaignhierarchysaidFridaythattheirstrategyof“wideningthemap”tocreate“moreav-enuestovictory”isworkingandtheyexpressedoptimism

ofcarryingIndiana.CampaignmanagerDavidPlouffesaidthatmanyobservers“questionedthevalidity”ofcompetinginIndianaandNorthCarolina.But,hesaid,“We’vespentalotoftimeandmoneythereandwethinkwehave a bead.” National field direc-

torJonCarsonsaidthatduetoObama’srazorthindefeatintheIndianaprimarytoHillaryClinton,thedecisionwasmadetocompetehereearlyinthesummer.Whileheacknowledgedthatitismore“con-servativeandRepublicanthanitssisterstateofIllinois,”thanks to the money and staffing from the primary gave thecampaignasoundfootingtocompeteinthefall.“OurnumbersareverysolidinIndiana-notsoft,”Carsonsaid.He added that by opening offices in rural areas and small towns,theObamacampaignbelievesitcancutMcCain’smarginsfrom“60-40”to“56-44”whilerollingupbigplurali-tiesinLakeCountyandIndianapolis.“Wethinkthat’sthepathwaytovictory.”HeaddedthatwhenindependentsdecidetovoteforObama“theyareverysticky”andhardforMcCainto“pulloff.”

Indiana Governor: Republican: Gov. Mitch Daniels. Democrat: Jill Long Thompson. Libertar-ian: Andrew Horning. 2008 Outlook:Danielsis12pointsaheadofThompsoninthemostrecentTribune/WSBTpoll—astrongleadinaracethatwasneck-and-neckaboutamonthago.Apollof600likelyvoterssurveyedbytele-phoneThursdaythroughSaturdayshows53percentwouldsupportDaniels,theRepublicanincumbent,to41percentwhowouldsupportLongThompson,theDemocrat.Some2percentsaidtheywouldsupportadifferentcandidate,and4percentwereundecided.Thiswasa1-pointracethelasttimeTheTribuneandWSBTpolledit.Danielshad47percentofthevoteattheendofSeptemberandLongThompsonhad46percent.Themarginforerrorinbothpollswas4percent.Theswinginthepolllikelycomesfromanuptickinthenumberofpeopleclaimingtaxesasthemostimportantissueintheirvoteforgovernor,saidpollsterDelAlioftheRockville,Md.-basedResearch2000.“That’sclearlyanadvantagehehasoverher,”AlisaidofDanielsandLongThompson.“Whentaxesandstatespendingbecomethetopissue,particularlyinastatethat’sconservative fiscally, it’s only going to benefit a Republi-can.”Some26percentofrespondentssaytaxesandstatespendingisthemostimportantissueindeterminingtheir

voteforgovernor—ariseof9percentagepointsfromthelastpoll.LongThompson’srecordinCongresswasoneoffiscal conservatism, consistently voting against new taxes. Butthemeatofhercampaignhasfocusedonjobs.About37percentofpeopleratedtheeconomyandjobcreationastheirtopissueforthegovernor’srace.Eventhoughitstilltopsthelistofissues,it’sgoneup4percentagepointsfromthelastpoll—notnearlyasfastastaxes.Status:LikelyDaniels

Congressional 3RD CD: Republican: U.S. Rep. Mark Souder. Democrat: Michael Montagano. Libertarian: William Larsen. 2008 Outlook: HoosiersshouldtossSouder,R-3rd,outof office because “it’s time for the next generation to be abletolead,”DemocratMichaelMontaganosays,drawingattentiontothe31-yearagegapbetweenthecandidates(Smith,FortWayneJournalGazette).At27,Montaganosays,hehastheenergyandpassionneededtobeamemberofCongress,and“I’mprettycertainIcandoabetterjobthanthepersonthat’sintheretotrytogetthisareabackontrack.”HelikenedhimselftootheryoungpeoplewhohavebeenelectedtoCongress,includingJohnF.Kennedy.Souderisalsoinvitingvoterstothinkaboutthedifferenceintheagesofthecandidatesontheballot–buthismessageisthatMontagano’slackofexperiencewillhurt.AlmostallofhiscommercialshaveanovertorsubtlechallengetoMontagano’sinexperience.Onead,forinstance, says: “Now isn’t the time to dress up and play congressman.It’stimeforreal,provenleadership.”Inthebackgroundisanexcerptfromareviewoftheracewrit-ten by a non-partisan political analyst, Stuart Rothenberg: “Montagano,27,seemsmorelikeanoverlyenthusiasticundergraduaterunningforclasspresidentthanamemberofCongress.”ThecampaignhasevolvedintothemostcompetitiveofIndiana’sninecongressionalraces,andnationalpartycommitteeshavepoured$493,000intothecampaign.Inaddition,bothcandidateshaveraisedmoremoneythananypreviouscandidatesfortheseat–Souder,$937,000;Montagano,$750,000,includingmoneyhelenthis campaign. Souder, 58, has been in office since 1995 andsayshisexperienceinbusinessandgovernment(hewasacongressionalaidebeforedefeatingathree-termincumbent) benefits the region. Montagano said northeast Indianadeservesan“effectiveleader,”andthatSouderisnot.“He’sbeenextremelypartisanandnotgottenanythingdone,”Montaganosaid. Status: TOSSUP

9TH CD:RepublicanMikeSodrel.DemocratU.S.Rep.BaronHill.LibertarianEricSchansberg.2008 Outlook: U,S,Rep.BaronHillhasa54-39percentleadoverMikeSodrelinthelatestSurveyUSAPoll.(599LikelyVoters--MoE+/-4.1%,Oct.22-23).LibertarianEricSchansbergcameinat5percent.Status: LIKELYHILL


Legislature

HD15: Republican: State Rep. Don Lehe. Democrat: Myron Sutton. 2008 Outlook: FormerNewtonCountySheriffMyronSutton,aDemocrat,ismakingasec-ondbidforthe15thDistrictstaterepresen-tativeslot,hopingtounseatincumbentDonLehe,athree-termRepublicanlegislatorandfarmerfromBrookston,aftercomingclosein2006withonly27votesseparatingthem(TimesofNorthwestIndiana).“Iexpectittobeacloseoneagain,”Lehesaid.Hesaidtherecenteconomicmeltdownisboundtobefeltatthepolls.Still,hesaid,“Itwillaffectusallalittle,butIndianahasposi-tioneditselfwelltoweatheritbetterthansomeotherstates.”Lehesaidhealwayscampaignshard,andthisyearhasbeennodifferent.Hesaidvotersshouldreturnhimto the seat that state Republican officials havecalledkeyinregainingcontroloftheIndianaHousetokeepprogressonthemove.“We’vegottensomuchaccomplished,especiallyinthelastfouryears,”Lehesaid.“Therehasbeenhugeprogressinjobcreationandeconomicdevelopment.”Lehestronglysupports10percenttaxcreditsforcompaniesthatinvestinrenewableenergysuchasthewindturbinesalreadyinthedistrict.BestknownforhiseightyearsastheNewtonCountysheriff,MyronSutton’sties,however,extendacrossthedistrict.“IthinkIreallyunderstandtheneighborhoodsandtheculture,”Suttonsaid,explainingthathewasborninHammond,hiswifeisfromCrownPoint,theyweremarriedinCedarLake,andhavenumerousfamilymembersandfriendsinLowellandLakeDalecarlia.“I’mproudtosaythatI’veknockedonmorethan14,000doorsinthedistrict,”Suttonsaid,addingthateachencounterhelpshimtounderstandtheneedsofthepeoplelivingthere. Status:Tossup

HD31: Republican: State Rep. Tim Harris. Democrat: Joe Pearson. 2008 Outlook:Republicanshavedrawn blood, noting that Pearson states he is a “certified” teacherwhentheDOEwebsiteshowshehasn’tbeenforyears.Harrisisusingthatinmailers.Thestoryhasgottensomelocalmediaplay.Giventheclosenessofthisracein2004and2006,wethinkit’stooclosetocall. Status:Tos-sup

HD 33: Republican: State Rep. Bill Davis. Democrat: Andy Schemenauer. 2008 Outlook:Sourcesin

bothpartiestellHPIthatthisracehastightenedup.Sta-tus:Tossup

HD37: Republican: Kelly Gaskill. Democrat: StateRep.ScottReske.2008 Outlook:Wesensethisracehastightenedup.TheAndersonPoliceDepartmenthasreleasedthreeaudioclipsusedasevidenceduringtheinvestigationofanintimidationcomplaintmadeagainstReske.ThreeoftheclipsareontheAndersonHerald-Bul-letinwebsite.OnOct.3,Andersonpolicesaidtheinvestiga-tion would be closed and no charges filed after no criminal intent was found. The complaint was filed Sept. 25 by MikeGaskill,thehusbandofKellyGaskill.Init,GaskillsaidReskethreatenedhisinsurancebusinessandhisfamily.ReskerespondedthatGaskillmisunderstoodhimwhenhesaidnegativecampaigningwouldhurteveryoneinvolved.Gaskillsaidbothheandhisdaughter,Heather,heardtheconversationandthatsherecordedsegmentsofthephone

Indiana House Horse Race Democrats Republicans 51 49 TossupsHD26(Open)Pollesvs.Truitt HD15Lehevs.SuttonHD63(Open)Messmervs.BurgerHD31Harrisvs.PearsonHD46Tinchervs.Heaton HD44Thomasvs.Michael HD89(Open)Swattsvs.Barnes HD97Elrodvs.Sullivan Leans HD75Averyvs.Strouth HD33 Davis vs. SchmenauerHD37Reskevs.Gaskill HD45 Borders vs. MarshallHD70 Cochran vs. Clere Likely HD92Hinklevs.DeKemper SafeDemocrats:Fry,Dembrowski.Austin,Bischoff,Blanton,Robertson,Lawson,Harris,C.Brown,Bauer,Cheatham,Niezgodski,Dvorak,Pelath,Stevenson,Reardon,Dobis,V.Smith,VanDenburgh,Bardon,Klinker, Herrell, Tyler, Grubb, Kersey, Pflum, Pierce, Welch, Battles, Goodin, Stemler,OxleySr.(Open),Stilwell,Avery,VanHaaften,Riecken(Open),GiaQuinta,Moses,DeLaney(Open),Pryor(Open),Bartlett,Porter,Craw-ford,Summers,Day.

Republicans: Clements,Yarde, Soliday, Borror, Neese,Wolkins,Wal-orski,Ruppel,Friend,McClain,J.Thompson,Richardson,Turner,Torr,Steuerwald,T.Brown,Foley,Culver(Open),Leonard,Dodge,Cherry,Saunders,Knollman,Eberhart,Burton,M.Smith,Koch,Duncan,Crouch,Lehman(Open),Espich,Bell,Pond,Noe,Bosma,Murphy,Behning,Frizzell.v


callonhercellphoneafterthingsturnedthreatening.Thephoneconversationfollowedaseriesofnegativeadvertise-mentsaimedatReskeandpaidforbytheHouseRepub-licanCampaignCommittee.Gaskill’shusbandsaidthattheRepublicandidn’tsanctiontheads.AndersonpoliceDetectiveMitchCarrollinvestigatedGaskill’scomplaintandannouncedonOct.3thatthecasehadbeenclosed.“Thefinality of it is that there was no criminal intent found,” Car-rollsaid.“Therewillbenocharges.”Status:LeansReske

HD44: Republican: State Rep. Amos Thomas. Democrat: Nancy Michael. 2008 Oulook:Thisraceistighterthanadrum.RepublicansareconcernedthattheundecidedsmaybreaktowardMichael.Status: Tossup

HD45: Republican: State Rep. Bruce Borders. Democrat: Rich Marshall. 2008 Oulook:Thisisanotherracethatappearstohavetightened,accordingtosourcesinbothparties.WehadBorders“safe”lastweek.We’reskepticalthatBorderswilllosebutthenthisisthekindofyearwherehecouldbesweptout.IfBordersloses,sowillalotofhiscolleagues.IndianaDemocraticChairmanDanParkersaysthatBarackObamaisleadinginthe45th.Sta-tus: LEANSBORDERS

HD46: Republican: Bob Heaton. Democrat: StateRep.VernTincher.2008 Outlook:Anotherracethatwebelieveistightening.HeatonhasbeenhittingTincheronpensionandhealthcareforlifeissuesthatweredevastatingtoincumbentsin2004(LarryBorst)and2006(BobGarton).Danielscoat-tailsareexpectedtomeanmoreherethanObama’s.MightbeapickupfortheGOP.Status: Tossup

HD63:Republi-can: Mark Messmer. Demo-crat: DuBois County Com-missionerJohnBurger.2008 Outlook: ThisraceisinthegutterwithBurgerdroppingadirectmailpieceaccusingMessmerofmakingane-mailthreat.Republicanssaythee-mailwasforged.LikeHD46,wedon’tthinkObamahasbigcoattailshereandDanielsisexpectedtodowellinthisdistrict.Status: Tossup

HD72: RepublicanEd Clere. Democrat: State Rep.BillCochran.2008 Out-look:Thisisbeingcharacter-

izedasthe2008versionoftheMahern/Elrodrace.Repub-licansthinktheyhaveashotatthisone.WehadCochran“safe”lastweek.We’reskeptical,butclearlythere’ssomemovementhere.Status: LEANSCOCHRAN

HD 75: Republican: J.D. Strouth. Democrat: StateRep.DennisAvery.2008 Outlook: Thisisthelate-breakingraceofthiscycle.Averyrepresentsa60percentRepublicandistrictwithaheavypro-lifetilt.Strausshasbeenabletoclimbintothisraceandsomesourcestriedtoconvinceusthisisatossup.We’vemoveditupto...Status:LEANSAVERY.

HD 89: Republican: Christopher Swatts. Demo-crat: John Barnes. 2008 Outlook: BothsidescontinuetheirTVassaults.BarnesistakingswingsoverSwatt’smoneyproblemsthatmadeitintoanumberofcourtcases.SwattsisassailingBarnesoverhislackofsupportofprop-ertytaxcaps. Status:Tossup

HD97: Republican: State Rep. Jon Elrod. Demo-crat: Mary Ann Sullivan. 2008 Outlook:Elrodhasputoutdirectmailtakingaimat“MillionaireMaryAnn,”notingthatshehasdonated$60,000toDemocraticcandidatesinrecentcycles.WesensethatElrodmightbeabletoholdon,butit’sstilltooclosetocall. Status: Tossupv


Chris Cillizza, Washington Post: Chris Cillizza, Washington Post: Barack Obama stands on the cuspofanelectoralvoteblowoutoverJohnMcCainwithjusteightdaysleftinthe2008generalelection.OnourlatestFixelectoralmap,wehaveObamaat349electoralvotes--hishighesttotalsincewebeganpickingtheplayingfield earlier this fall -- while McCain stands at 189 electoral votes.And,it’suniquelypossiblethatObamacouldcrest350electoralvotesbeforeallissaidanddonenextTuesday.Thehardestthreestatesforustopick--Missouri,IndianaandNevada--wereallcarriedbyPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2000and2004.(InthecaseofIndiana,theRepublicanpresidentialnomineehascarriedthestateineveryelectionbutone--1964--since1936.)WhilewehaveMcCaintoIndiana,it’suniquelypossiblethattheHoosierStatecouldflip from red to blue as Real Clear Politics shows Obamaleadingbyahalfpercentinanaver-ageofpollingconductedinthestate.(TheRCPaverageandotherhelpfulindicatorsforninebattlegroundstatescanbefoundinournewBattlegroundCheatSheet.)Similarly,NorthCarolina,whichwearegivingtoMcCain,couldgoforObama,accordingtoaggregatedpolling. If those two states were to flip, Obama’s electoral votecountwouldstandatawhopping375.Forcomparisonpurposes,PresidentBillClintonwon379electoralvotesinhis1996re-electionraceagainstKansasSen.BobDolewhilethenVicePresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushclaimed426electoralvotesinhiswinoverMassachusettsGov.MichaelDukakisin1988.v

Rich James, Post-Tribune: AbouttheonlythinginthiscountryworsethantheeconomyistheRepub-licanParty.RepublicanshadhighhopesofputtingGeorgeBushbehindthemastheyheadedintothenationalcon-vention.AndwhenJohnMcCainpickedSarahPalin,thingswereevensweeter,asthetwogotabumpinthepolls.ButnotlongafterPalinrevealedhertrueself--anineptbore--thewheelsstartedcomingoff.Andnowwe’velearnedthat the GOP has outfitted that down-to-earth hockey mom with$150,000indudsfromstoressuchasSaks.AndshecallsBarackObamaanelitist?Itellyou,Idon’tknowwhat’sscarier,Palinaspresidentorthosewhothinksheisreadytobepresident.v

Sylvia Smith, Fort Wayne Journal Ga-zette: we forget that earmarks are an almost infinitesimal partofthefederalbudget.Symbolic,yes;butconsequen-tialintermsofactualmoney?No.Nonetheless,theymakegreatcampaignfodder.We’reseeingabitofthatinthecon-gressionalcontestbetweenRepublicanRep.MarkSouderandDemocratMichaelMontagano.ActingasMontagano’sproxy,thestateDemocraticParty(promptedbytheDemo-

craticCongressionalCampaignCommittee)saysSoudersoughtandgotanearmarkforacompanythatheownedstockin–Biomet.Bydoingsomethingthatimprovedthecompany’sstanding,thestatepartysays,Souderfeath-ered his own financial nest. Some of what the Dems say is flawed – the $1 million was directed to the University ofNotreDame,notabusiness.ButSoudercontributedtothismisunderstandingbecauseofapressreleaseheissuednaming the companies that would benefit, including Biomet. According to that 2006 release: “A partnership consisting ofthreeWarsaw-basedorthopediccompanies–Zimmer,

BiometandDePuy–theWalterReedArmyMed-icalCenterandthreeIndianauniversitieswouldreceive$1millioninSouder-requestedfund-ingtohelpimprovesoldierrecoveryfollowingorthopedicsurgery.Lastyear,Soudersecured$1.3millionforthissamepartnership.”Indeed,Souderbought54sharesofBiometin2003at$36.99ashare.Itwaswhenheboughtahand-fulofotherstocks,andhesaysheintendedto

holdontoallofthemuntilretirement.Thereisnoevidencethathesoldanyofthemuntil2006,whenBiometwasacquired by a private equity firm. All shareholders were paid $46ashare–nettingSouder$486.54.Thereareplentyofmistakes to go around in this: The state Democratic Party andtheDCCCwerewrongtosaySoudergotanearmarkforBiometandthathedidsomethingalmostillegal.Soudershould have avoided any appearance of conflict, even if thatmeantnotbuyingstocksinalocalbusiness.v

Doug Ross,Times of Northwest Indiana:Here’sanelectionnightscenariothatshouldhaveyoubit-ing your fingernails: Indiana is a swing state this year. The presidentialracecouldgototheDemocratsinsteadoftheRepublicans.BarackObama’scampaignhasbeenworkingfeverishlytoconvertHoosiervoters,whileJohnMcCain’scampaignseemstobetakingIndianaforgranted.ThepollshavecertainlybeenswingingbackandforthbetweenObamaandMcCain.SowhatifthepresidentialracehingesonIndiana?AndwhatifthestatehingesonLakeCounty?WiththousandsuponthousandsmorevotersregisteredbyACORNactivistsandotherssincetheprimaryelection,theresultsfromLakeCountycouldbeevenlaterthaninMay.Hey,itcouldhappen.IndianaSecretaryofStateToddRokitaexplainedduringavisittoTheTimesthissummerthatearlyvotesandabsenteeballotscan’tbetallieduntilthepollscloseonElectionDay.That’sbecausevoterscanchangetheirminds,showupattheirpollingplaceonElectionDayandcastanewballotthatvoidstheearlierone.Soifyouthinkthiselectionisnuttynow,justwait.GetreadyforalongnightNov.4.v

givingup,askingsupportersinAlaskaandtheSenatetostandbyhimashe appeals his conviction. “I will fight thisunjustverdictwitheveryounceofenergyIhave,”the84-year-oldWorldWarIIveteransaid.

Glass to be namedIU athletic director BLOOMINGTON-AHoosierwillsoonberunningtheathleticde-partmentatIndianaUniversity(India-napolisStar).FredGlass,anIndia-napolisattorneywithBaker&DanielsandagraduateofIU,isIndiana’s20thathleticdirector,accordingtomultiplesourceswithknowledgeofthesitua-tion.Hewillbeintroducedatanewsconference at 10:15 this morning at theVirgilT.DeVaultAlumniCenterontheBloomingtoncampus.Glassre-placesRickGreenspan,whoresignedinJuneamidNCAAallegationsthattheuniversity’sathleticdepartmentfailedtomonitorthemen’sbasketballprogram.Glass,49,iswellknowninIndianapolissportscircles.From2000to2007,hewaspresidentoftheMarionCountyCapitalImprovementBoard,whichownsandoperatestheIndianaConventionCenter,LucasOilStadium,ConsecoFieldhouseandVic-toryField.HealsoservedontheboardofdirectorsforIndianaSportsCorp.from2000to2005.

Economy hittingIndiana casinos INDIANAPOLIS-Indiana’stypicallyresilientgamblingindustryistakingabeatingfromthenation’seconomicdownturn(AssociatedPress).Thegamblingindustryhasbeenconsideredsomewhatrecession-proof,butthestate’swageringtaxandadmissiontaxrevenuesdeclinedin fiscal year 2008 compared with thepreviousyear,accordingtotheIndianaGamingCommission.MikeSmith,presidentoftheCasinoAs-sociationofIndiana,saideconomic

problems are difficult to fight, but he hopestheworstisalreadybehindthegamblingindustry.“Ifyoulookatthenumbers(ofthecasinosinIndiana),we’vemanagedtostabilize,”hesaid.AtFrenchLickCasino,theamountmadebythecasinothisyearthroughSeptemberisdown$2.7millionfromwhatthecasinobroughtinduringthesametimein2007.Onslotsandtablegames,FrenchLickhasmade$76.2millionthisyearcomparedwithlastyear’s$78.9millionbythistime.

State to get $152Min HUD foreclosure $$ WASHINGTON-Indianawillget$152milliontohelpcitiesandtownsbuyabandonedorforeclosedhomes,demolishorredevelopvacantpropertiesandhelplow-andmoder-ate-incomehomebuyerspurchaseproperties,Gov.MitchDanielssaidyesterday(AssociatedPress).Ofthestatetotal,$84millionisIndiana’sshareofthe$3.92billionappropria-tiontoall50statesunderthefederalNeighborhoodStabilizationProgram.Theremaining$68millionwillgotoIndianadirectlyfromtheU.S.Depart-mentofHousingandUrbanDevel-opment,Danielssaid.AreasslatedtoreceivedirectHUDfundsincludeAnderson,$2.1million;Elkhart,$2.2million;Evansville,$3.6million;FortWayne,$7million;Gary,$3.8million;HamiltonCounty,$2.3million;Ham-mond,$3.8million;Indianapolis,$29million;Kokomo,$2.2million;LakeCounty,$5.7million;Muncie,$2mil-lion;andSouthBend,$4.1million.

Employees reassured SOUTHBEND-SouthBendcityemployeeswhosejobsarethreat-enedbecauseofthecity’sbudgetwoeswillgettokeeptheirjobsforthe first few months of 2009, Mayor StephenLueckesaid.(SouthBendTribune).

Rokita finds criminalviolations with ACORN INDIANAPOLIS-SecretaryofState Todd Rokita says his office has foundevidenceof“multiplecriminalviolations,includingpossiblestateandfederalracketeeringlaws”incon-nectionwithfraudulentvoterregistra-tion applications filed in Lake County. Rokitasaysmanyregistrationapplica-tions filed by the Association of Com-munityOrganizationsforReformNow,orACORN,hadincompleteinforma-tionorindicationsoffraudorforgery.Rokita outlined his office’s findings in a lettertofederal,stateandlocalpros-ecutorsaskingthemtoopenacriminalinvestigation.ADeputyIndianaAt-torneyGeneralhaspreviouslyrejectedthatrequest,butseniorlawenforce-ment officials have told The Associated PressthattheFBIwasinvestigatingACORN.

Sen. Stevens convicted WASHINGTON-Sen.TedStevensgambledbyaskingforaspeedytrial,bettingahigh-powereddefenseteam,somesterlingcharacterwitnessesandhisunblemishedrecordasAlaska’spoliticalpatriarchwouldgethimapre-electionacquittaloncorruptioncharges(AssociatedPress).He lost, with a jury on Monday finding himguiltyonsevencountsoftryingtohidemorethan$250,000infreehomerenovationsandothergiftsfromawealthyoilcontractor.Stevens,whofirst entered the Senate in 1968, now facesAlaska’svotersnextweekasaconvictedfelon-increasingthedif-ficulty in a tough race against Demo-craticchallengerMarkBegich.ButthefamouslystubbornStevensisnot


howey/gauge: blowouts & burners

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