howell defense
DESCRIPTION
Thesis defense presentation, successfully defended July 2010.TRANSCRIPT
Quasi-Global and Regional Water Vapor and Rainfall Rate
Climatologies for a 35 Month Period
Kelly HowellMS Thesis Defense
July 9, 2010
2
Acknowledgements• Tom Vonder Haar and Stan Kidder, advisor and co-
advisor, for their many suggestions on the direction of this project and confidence in my success
• Chris Kummerow and Jorge Ramírez, committee members, for their time in reviewing this work
• Eric Guillot and Jessica Ram, officemates, for their continual encouragement, suggestions, and distractions
• Family and friends for their support and readiness to listen
• DoD Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research at CSU under Cooperative Agreement W911NF-06-2-0015 with the Army Research Laboratory for funding this research
3
Introduction
Motivation
• Use new datasets to create total precipitable water (TPW) and rainfall rate (RR) climatologies
• Further investigate the relationship between TPW and RR with the hopes of improving rain forecasting techniques:– In areas lacking adequate forecasting
capabilities– In areas that may experience flood-inducing
rainfall
5
September 5, 2008 at 00 UTC
Areas with elevated TPW
are often associated
with instances of rainfall.
Hurricane Ike
6
Domain
• Spatially, the data cover 60o S to 60o N at all longitudes at 0.25o×0.25o resolution.
• CMORPH covers the entire domain; bTPW covers the oceans. Over the continental US, bTPW is supplemented by GPS TPW estimates.
• Temporally, both datasets were sampled 6-hourly from February 2006 to December 2008 and used at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC.
• In all, 3928 time periods were used in this analysis, or approximately 92% of the temporal domain.
7
Data• Total precipitable water (TPW) is the total
atmospheric water vapor in a vertical column, measured in mm. Data in this study come from the CIRA blended TPW product (bTPW), which combines TPW measurements from 6 instruments (Kidder and Jones 2007).
• Rainfall rate (RR) is the amount of rain that falls during a given amount of time. The data in this study come from the CPC morphing method product (CMORPH), which combines RR measurements from 7 instruments and uses an IR-based advection technique to fill in missing data (Joyce et al. 2004).
• In this project, ‘rainfall’ implies a RR≥0.1 mm hr-1.
8
Satellite Instruments
Data type
Satellites
Sensor
Channels Used
Scan Type
Source
TPW
DMSP F-13, -14, -15
SSM/I 19, 22, 37 GHz
Conical Ferraro et al. 1996
NOAA-15, -16, -17
AMSU-A2
23.8, 31.4 GHz
Cross-track
Ferraro et al. 2005
RR
DMSP F-13, -14, -15
SSM/I 19, 22, 37, 85.5 GHz
Conical Ferraro 1997
NOAA-15, -16, -17
AMSU-B
89, 150, 183 GHz
Cross-track
Ferraro et al. 2005
TRMM TMI 10, 19, 21, 37, 85 GHz
Conical Kummerow et al. 1996
9
Total Precipitable
Water Climatology
10
Annual Mean TPW (Trenberth 1998)
Mean global TPW is 24.52 mm (Trenberth et al. 2003).TPW maximizes north of the equator around 45 mm.
11
Annual Mean TPW
The global mean TPW is 24.94 mm, with a maximum
of approximately 45 mm north of the equator.
West Pacific
Warm Pool
SPCZ ITCZ
Oceanic Deserts
12
Seasonal Mean TPW (Ferraro et al. 1996)
The seasonal changes in TPW are evident, particularly in the west Pacific warm pool during the JJA monsoon period and in the
eastward advancement of the SPCZ during DJF. In addition, the northernmost latitudes display their highest TPW values during JJA
and the southernmost latitudes display their highest TPW values during DJF, following the seasonal changes in solar insolation.
13
Seasonal Mean TPW
The seasonal TPW distributions are similar to previous findings, with the SPCZ extending its farthest eastward during DJF and TPW highs
around southeast Asia during the JJA monsoon period. The presence of a double ITCZ can be detected in the eastern tropical Pacific during
MAM. However, TPW values in the ITCZ are lower than the findings by Ferraro et al. (1996).
14
Rainfall Climatology
15
Global Mean RR in mm day-1
(Legates and Willmott 1990)
Source Surface Typ
e
RR [mm day-
1]
CMAP Ocean 3.02
Land 1.86
Globe 2.69
Jaeger (1976
)
Ocean 2.91
Land 2.01
Globe 2.66
LW (1990
)
Ocean 3.15
Land 1.97
Globe 2.82Over land, rainfall maximizes over the Amazon Basin and the African rainforests. Over the
ocean, the most rainfall occurs in the ITCZ, the west Pacific warm pool, and the SPCZ. This plot was constructed based on rain gauge
measurements.
On average, ocean surfaces receive the
most rainfall while land surfaces receive the
least. Source: Xie and Arkin (1997).
16
Annual Mean RR in mm day-1
Surface Type
RR [mm day-1]
Ocean 2.68
Land 2.57
All Surfaces
2.63
The oceans receive more rainfall than land
surfaces. The ITCZ receives the most
rainfall; the oceanic deserts receive the least.
17
Annual Mean RR in mm year-1
(Ferraro et al. 1996)
Over land, rainfall maximizes just south of the equator. Over the oceans, there is a double peak in the tropics,
maximizing north of the equator.
The solid lines indicate Ferraro et al.’s (1996) findings; the dashed lines indicate findings from Legates and Willmott (1990).
18
Annual Mean RR in mm year-1
The zonal mean RR distributions over ocean and land display similar trends to the findings by Ferraro et al. (1996), although these estimations are slightly higher.
Latitude (degrees N)
RR (m
m y
r-1)
19
Annual Mean Rainfall Frequency
The zonal distributions of rainfall frequency are analogous to the zonal distributions of rainfall.
Overall, the oceans receive rain more frequently (11.04 %)
than land surfaces (8.58 %).
Latitude Zone
Ocean Frequency
Land Frequency
60-45o N 10.99 % 4.68 %
45-30o N 12.72 % 5.65 %
30-15o N 7.56 % 5.15 %
15-0o N 16.48 % 13.91 %
0-15o S 11.02 % 16.41 %
15-30o S 7.63 % 6.90 %
30-45o S 11.32 % 5.91 %
45-60o S 10.23 % 5.19 %
Latitude (degrees N)
Rainf
all F
requ
ency
[%]
Rainfall frequency = 100×
0.0
1.0
RR
RR
20
Seasonal Mean RR in mm month-1
(Ferraro et al. 1996)
Seasonal mean rainfall tends to follow the patterns of seasonal mean TPW, with the SPCZ extending its farthest eastward in DJF and monsoonal rains occurring over southeast Asia during JJA. Also notable is the presence of a southern branch of the ITCZ
during MAM.
21
Seasonal Mean RR in mm month-1
Seasonal mean rainfall estimates from CMORPH are similar to the findings by Ferraro et al. (1996). The NH and SH land areas show large changes between DJF and JJA: the winter hemisphere’s land
areas receive very little rainfall.
22
Seasonal Mean Rainfall Frequency
(Ferraro et al. 1996)
Seasonal rainfall frequency patterns mimic rainfall patterns, with more frequent rain occurring over the areas that typically receive
more rainfall.
23
Seasonal Mean Rainfall Frequency
Season
0.1 mm hr-1
0.5 mm hr-1
1.0 mm hr-1
DJF 10.31 % 4.88 % 2.76 %
MAM 10.30 % 4.79 % 2.76 %
JJA 10.17 % 5.00 % 2.92 %
SON 10.09 % 4.95 % 2.88 %
The global frequency distribution estimates are much higher than
those found by Ferraro et al. (1996), although the same patterns are present. Using the 0.1 mm hr-1
threshold, global frequencies hover around 10%.
24
Regional Studies
25
TPW Threshold for Rainfall?
Average rainfall rate versus column water vapor for the eastern Pacific at various
tropospheric temperatures. 25% of the rainfall occurs for TPW values above a ‘critical value.’
Time series of (a) RR in mm hr-1,
(b) TPW in mm, and (c) global solar radiation at the Koto Tabang GPS station during JJA 2001. Rainfall does not tend to occur at times with
relatively low TPW.
Source: Wu et al. (2003) Source: Neelin et al. (2009)
26
Regional Studies
Location Longitude
Latitude
East of Florida 70o W 30o N
Indian Ocean 75o E 8o S
East of Japan 142o E 35o N
South of Panama 83o W 4o N
South Atlantic Ocean
22o W 45o S
North Atlantic Ocean
30o W 50o N
West Pacific 155o E 6o N
Southeastern Pacific
120o W 8o S
SPCZ 170o E 10o S
The following plots were constructed using the data at
each of these grid points analyzed over all 35 months.
27
TPW Distributions
Annual mean TPW is highly variable in the midlatitude location, relatively high in the tropical location, and
relatively low in the oceanic desert location.
Location Mean TPW
East of Florida 30.66 mm
West Pacific 54.28 mm
Southeastern Pacific
29.62 mm
TPW (mm)
Prop
ortio
n of
Tot
al O
ccur
renc
es
28
RR Distributionst
oeEtE
)(
Location Slope of Fit
Rainfall Frequency
East of Florida
-0.58
11.11 %
West Pacific
-0.516
31.20 %
Southeastern Pacific
-1.556
2.29 %
Equation of exponential decay. A more negative slope indicates a faster rate of decay (i.e., there are relatively few heavy
rain events).
More negative slopes tend to be associated with lower rainfall frequencies.RR [mm hr-1]
Prop
ortio
n of
Tot
al O
ccur
renc
es
ln(P
ropo
rtio
n of
Tot
al O
ccur
renc
es)
29
RR vs TPW
The shapes of these distributions approximate the TPW distributions. In general, the higher RRs occur at the
more frequently occurring TPW values. However, this is not the case
in the southeastern Pacific, where the highest RRs occur at higher TPW
values.
TPW (mm)
RR [m
m h
r-1]
30
Probability of RainfallRR ≥ 0.1 mm hr-1
RR ≥ 3.0 mm hr-1
As rain intensity increases, rainfall
becomes less likely at lower TPW values.
TPW (mm)
Prob
abili
ty o
f Rainf
all [
%]
31
RR Distributions by TPW Range
32
RR Distribution by TPW Range
TPW Range
Probability of Rainfall
0-15 mm 2.34 %
15-30 mm 7.64 %
30-45 mm 16.59 %
45-60 mm 29.89 %
60-75 mm 45.89 %
At higher TPW values, rainfall is
more probable and there is a higher
proportion of heavier rainfall.
RR [mm hr-1]
Prop
ortio
n of
Tot
al O
ccur
renc
es
33
RR Distribution by TPW Range
The RR distributions are not strictly exponential, but an
exponential fit is a consistent representation of the
distribution. Steeper slopes are associated with drier
environments.
TPW Range
Slope of RR Distribution
0-15 mm -1.01
15-30 mm -0.90
30-45 mm -0.70
45-60 mm -0.59
60-75 mm -0.49
ln(P
ropo
rtio
n of
Tot
al O
ccur
renc
es)
RR [mm hr-1]
34
Conclusions
• The bTPW and CMORPH datasets result in climatologies that are comparable to those from previous studies. TPW, rainfall, and rainfall frequency are the highest in the ITCZ, SPCZ, and west Pacific warm pool, and the lowest in oceanic desert regions.
• Quasi-global mean TPW is 24.94 mm. • Quasi-global mean RR is 2.63 mm day-1. • The ocean receives rainfall in greater quantities
and more frequently compared with land surfaces.
• In a global mean sense, rainfall is more probable and higher RRs are more frequent at higher TPW values.
35
Future Work
• Extend this study over land areas when an accurate TPW dataset over land becomes available.
• Incorporate CloudSat estimates into the RR results in order to better measure lighter rainfall events.
• Because TPW may not be detected when rain is present, estimate missing the TPW values in order to create more robust statistics.
• Use TPW anomaly data to compare with occurrences of rainfall.
• Incorporate regional TPW and RR characteristics into forecast and climate models.
36
Questions?