how will we grow? looking at america to 2050
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How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050. Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to NCREIF Chicago September, 19, 2013. Long Term Fundamentals. U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population Huge resource base - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
How will we grow? Looking at America to 2050
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to NCREIFChicago September, 19, 2013
Long Term Fundamentals• U.S. only advanced
country with large, growing population
• Huge resource base• Economic system
most resilient among advanced countries
• Affordable housing attracts key demographic groups
• Dispersion and decentralization is the future
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050
Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
Labor Force Growth
U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
United States; 37%
Korea; -30%
Europe; -21%
China; -10%
Japan; -39%
Growth in Age 15-64
China Europe Japan Singapore United States0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.12
0.26
0.36
0.09
0.19
0.45
0.53
0.82
0.37 0.34
20102050
65 &
Ove
r Per
sons
per
Und
er 1
5Ratio of Elderly to Working Age Population
65 & OVER PERSONS PER 15-64 YEARS
Calculated fromUN Population Prospects:
2010 Revision
Future Drivers of Growth
• Resurgence of Basic Industry• Rise of Growth Corridors
• Role of Immigration• Millennials, Seniors and the role of families drive
dispersion
Ag Exports Increasing
Driven by solid worldwide demand, increased productivity, and strong commodity prices, America’s ag sector has seen overall export levels steadily increase over the past decade.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201140.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
US Ag Exports, 2000-2011
Billi
ons o
f Dol
lars
Source: USDA Economic Research Service
Leading in Gas Production
United StatesRussia
European UnionCanada
IranQatar
NorwayChina
NetherlandsAlgeria
Saudi ArabiaIndonesia
611,000,000,000
588,900,000,000
182,300,000,000
152,300,000,000
138,500,000,000
116,700,000,000
106,300,000,000
96,800,000,000
85,170,000,000
85,140,000,000
83,940,000,000
82,800,000,000
Natural Gas Production, Billions of Cu M
CIA World Factbook
Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken
TexasOklahoma
ColoradoCaliforniaLouisiana
PennsylvaniaKansasFlorida
New MexicoNorth Dakota
OhioWyomingArkansas
West VirginiaIllinois
MichiganMississippi
AlaskaUtah
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000
Oil and Gas Extraction Job Growth, 2001-2011
Source: EMSI Complete Employment, 2011.4
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1.7
4.7
5.2
Real GDP Industrial Production: Manufacturing 2011 2011 Feb. 2011 to Feb. 2012
Growth Rates: Real GDP vs. Manuafacturing
A High Economic MultiplierActivity Generated by $1 of Sector GDP
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Nation
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
25.5%
20.5%
16.8%
11.7%
11.5%
11.0%
7.5%
5.7%
4.1%
-1.5%
STEM Occupation Growth, 2002-2012
Source: EMSI Class of Worker Employment, 2012.2
MAP by Forbes Magazine
2013-2023 JOB GROWTH % CHANGE Research by EMSI, Inc.
Great Lakes
Inland West
Great Plains
Left Coast
Northeast
SoCal
Southeast
Third Coast
Miami
New York-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2013-2023 % change
2003-2013 % change
Population trends2012 Population
2001-2012 Growth
2013-2023 Projection
Great Lakes 58,204,741 3% 1%Plains 40,198,802 14% 6%Inland West 31,937,817 21% 7%Left Coast 18,754,371 10% 5%NE 41,377,960 6% 3%SoCal 20,738,971 10% 5%SE 60,684,462 14% 5%Third Coast 16,421,390 16% 7%Miami 5,729,000 12% 6%NY 19,109,549 3% 3%
NY
CA
IL
MI
OH
PA
GA
NC
TX
FL
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Millions: Net Domestic Migration
Domestic Migration by State: 2000-200910 LARGEST STATES
Data fromCensus Bueau
Gaining States
Declustering: The New Demography
• Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities
• Shift to opportunity regions
• Social trends strongly pro-suburban
• US Population growth will increase interest “flyover country”
Over 10M 5M-10M 2.5M-5M 1M-2.5M Other
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-11.3%
-2.5%
1.4%
3.7%
0.6%
Shar
e of
200
0 Po
pula
tion
Net Domestic Migration by PopulationMAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-09, 2010-12
From CensusBureau Data
PROJECTED CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS 2012-2017 Research by Pitney Bowes Corp.
Houston, T
X
Atlanta,
GA
Washingto
n D.C.
Dallas,
TX
New York, NY
Phoenix, AZ
Riversi
de, CA
San Antonio, T
X
Austin, T
X
Forth
Worth
, TX
Los A
ngeles, C
A
Chicago
, IL
Oaklan
d, CA
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Salt Lake CitySeattleDetroit
PhoenixRiverside-San Bernardino
San FranciscoBostonAtlantaMiami
WashingtonPhiladelphia
HoustonDallas-Fort Worth
ChicagoLos Angeles
New YorkU.S. Average
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 93.7
4.81.5
33.7
7.85.2
24.5
4.13.8
32.9
3.26.26.2
3.1
Housing Affordability: 15 Largest MSAs
Median Multiple
Detached80%
Attached7%
Multi-Unit8%
Other5%
Housing Preferences: Realtors Survey2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY
Figure 25
0-2 Miles2-5 Miles
5-10 Miles10-15 Miles
15-20 Miles20+ Miles-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
206,000
-272,000
1,105,000
3,473,000 2,989,000
8,566,000
Popu
latio
n Gr
owth
Population Growth by Distance from CoreUS MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010
Figure 26
Data fromCensus Bureau
Osceola, FL
Prince William, VA
Montgomery, TN
Forsyth, GA
Midland, TX
Fort Bend, TX
Orleans, LA
Hays, TX
Loudon, VA
Williamson, TX
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
6.97%
7.04%
7.04%
7.07%
7.14%
7.16%
7.39%
7.56%
7.87%
7.94%
Fastest Growing Counties Over 100,0002010-2012
Data fromCensus Bureau
Groups Shaping our Future Demography
–
• Key demographic groups: Immigrants, Millennials, Aging Boomers --- mostly in suburbs
• Millennials start to grow up
• Shift in geography of family: key to long-term growth
1960 2010 2020 Projection0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Figure 30
White-Non-Hispanic Share of PopulationUS: 1960-2050
Source: Bureau of the Census
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
TotalOwner
Source: Myers & Pitkin
Foreign Born Share of New HouseholdsUS: 1970-2010
Figure 31
PhiladelphiaDetroit
RiversideSeattleBostonAtlantaChicagoPhoenix
WashingtonHouston
DallasNew York
San FranciscoLos Angeles
Miami
2.1
2.5
3.3
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.8
6.0
6.5
6.5
7.4
7.5
8.0
10.1
Immigration Rates Top 15 RegionsAnnual Average, 2001-2008
Areas are MSA U.S. Census Population Estimates
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TNCharlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
Memphis, TN-MS-ARKansas City, MO-KS
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GAOklahoma City, OK
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FLHouston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TXSalt Lake City, UT
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, COUnited States
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NHMiami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WINew York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
118.3%100.4%
73.0%68.4%67.5%
64.9%50.3%
48.7%46.0%
39.0%34.4%
29.8%28.1%
23.4%15.4%13.8%
2.6%
Growth in Foreign Born Population, 2000-2011
U.S. Census 2000 and American Community Survey
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
90000000
2008, 38.69 Million
2030, 72.09 Million
2050, 88.55 MillionNumber of 65 - 100 year olds in United States
Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Projections, Released 2008NewGeography.com
Major Metro Core Cities
Major Metro Suburbs
Smaller Areas
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Chan
ge in
Sha
re o
f Coh
ort
Empty Nesters: To Less Dense AreasMAJOR METROPOLITAN & SMALLER AREAS
65-74 Population in 2010Compared to 55-64 in 2000Source: US Census Data
90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move
- AARP
“They don’t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development – funky but safe.”
- Washington-area developer Jeff Lee.
Photo: Vlastula
Millennials (Age 12 - 30) Gen X (Age 31 - 44) Boomers (Age 45 - 64)
81,571,364.0
57,344,709.0
80,979,577.0
Population in Millions
Millennials rival Boomers
U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
90000000
2010, 66.14 Million
2025, 74.73 Million
2050, 88.09 MillionNumber of 30 - 45 year olds in United States
Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Projections, Released 2008
Relationship w
ith fa
mily
Relationship w
ith pare
nts
Your neigh
borhood
Your relig
ious or s
piritual li
fe
Your sch
ool
Your job
76 72
53 5243
35
Sources of Happiness of 13-24 year olds
Millennials and the Family
85% plan to get married
77% probably or definitelywant children
Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007
Country
Small City
Suburb
Big City
Country
Small City
Suburb
Big City
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
MillenialsOlder Generations
Source:Frank N. Magid
Associates
Millennial Life Style ChoicesCOMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS
Figure 40
Curre
ntRe
siden
ceId
eal P
lace
to L
ive
Under 3.0 3.0-4.0 4.0-5.0 5.0-6.0 6.0-8.0 Over 80%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Median House Price/Median Household Income: 2007
Chan
ge in
Col
lege
Gra
duat
es: 2
007-
2009
Absolute Change: College GraduatesHOUSING AFFORDABILITY: MAJOR METRO AREAS: 2007-9
52 Metropolitan Areas over Million Population 2007
Raleigh
Las V
egas
Austin
Charlotte
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas-Fort
Wort
h
Orlando
Houston
AVERAGE
New York
Los A
ngeles
Buffalo
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Change
Change in 5-17 Population: 2000-2010MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA EXAMPLES
Source:Census Data
No matter how many communes anybody invents, the family always creeps back.
Margaret Mead
JOELKOTKIN.COM
A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries.
It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.
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