how will future climate changes affect water sources? results of a study in norrbotten 2010 robert...
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How will future climate changes affect water sources?
Results of a study in Norrbotten 2010
Robert JönssonVatten & Miljöbyrån, Luleå
The aim of the studyTo evaluate local risks and vulnerabilities for water sources regarding climate change, considering:
• All 14 main water sources in Norrbotten
• The presumed climate in the period of 2050-2100
The initiative to the project was taken by the Länsstyrelsen in Norrbotten (the county) according to the government bill En sammanhållen klimat- och energipolitik (Coherent climate and energy politics)
How the study was carried out
Statistics of the future climate in Norrbotten
(by SMHI)
Collection of back-ground material for each
unique water source
Compilation of possible scenarios/consequences for
the water sources
Risk assessment Compilation of results Presentation
MunicipalitySurface water (SW)/ Ground water (GW)
Arjeplog SW Arvidsjaur GWBoden GWGällivare GWHaparanda SW Jokkmokk SWKalix GWKiruna SWLuleå GWPajala GWPiteå SWÄlvsbyn GWÖverkalix GWÖvertorneå GW
Main water sources in Norrbotten
Ytvatten-sjö
Ytvatten-älv
Grundvatten-berg
Grundvatten-lösa
jordlager
ground water 64 %
surface water 36 %
Climate changes in Norrbotten 2050-2100Increased precipitation• Precipitation increases with approx. 20-30%• Average runoff increases• Groundwater levels rise
Intense rain and rainstorms• Maximum precipitation during 7 days increases with 10-15%
Increased average temperature• Temperature increase in Sweden: 2,5-4,5 ˚C, in Norrbotten somewhat higher.• Vegetation periods get longer• Ice brake-ups come earlier
Possible consequences on water source of increased precipitation
• Additional contribution of organic matter, particles, nutrients, pollutants from surface water and roads etc
• Changed physical, chemical and biological situations
• Increased risk of land slides
Possible consequences on water sources of intense rain and rainstorms
• Increased levels of microbiological contaminations• Increased risk of waterborne infections• Increased levels of organic matter• Increased levels of different types of emissions• Emissions of different types of pollutants in the inflow area of
water sources• Flooding of low situated installations
Possible consequences on water sources of increased average temperature
• Risk for new waterborne and pathogenic virus, protozoans and parasites in the water systems
• Changes in agriculture and foresting due to climate changes• Longer stratification periods• Larger part of the precipitation falls as rain and increased number of
snow melting periods etc• Increased recreational activities on lakes• Toxic algae bloom• High water temperatures
Risk assessmentRisk assessment was made in two steps:
1. Risk assessment of existing potential contamination sources (2 cases: rainstorm/flood and increased runoff)
2. Risk assessment of possible consequences on water sources regarding climate changes
Results -Step 1, risk assessment existing potential contamination sources
Source of contamination
Risk that pollutants affects the water catchment at intense rain/flooding
Risk that pollutants affects the water catchment at increased runoff
Small Mediu
mLarge Very
lageSmall Mediu
mLarge Very
large
Waste storage 13 1 13 1 Storm water from urban environments
10 3 1 12 2
Storm water from industrial land
10 3 2 12 2
Other contamination from industrial land
11 1 2 13 1
Contamination from contaminated land
11 1 2 12 2
Municipal sewerage/sewage treatment
8 3 3 13 1
Individual sewageplants
8 3 3 12 2
Petroleum storage 11 2 1 12 2
Livestock 10 3 1 13 1 Contamination from roads
12 1 1 13 1
Agricultural land 9 3 2 10 4
Forestry 9 4 1 12 2
Risk matrix, Step 2Risk- and vulnerability analysis made according to a method
recommended by the Swedish National Food Administration
ProbabilityConsequence
Small (K1)
Medium (K2)
Large(K3)
Very large (K4)
Very large (S4) Green Yellow Red Black
Large (S3) Green Yellow Red Red
Medium (S2) Green Green Yellow Red
Small (S1) Green Green Yellow Yellow
Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained)
Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be consideredRed Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessaryBlack Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately
Result Step 2 – Water sources in NorrbottenAffects of increased precipitation
Additional contribution of organic matter, particles, nutrients, pollu-
tants from surface water and roads etc
Changed physical, chemical and biological situations
Increased risk of land slides 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Num
ber o
f mun
icipa
lities
Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained)
Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be consideredRed Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessaryBlack Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately
Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affects of intense rain and rainstorms
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Num
ber
of m
unic
ipal
ities
Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained)
Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be consideredRed Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessaryBlack Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately
Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affects of increased average temperature
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Num
ber o
f mun
icipa
lities
Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained)
Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be consideredRed Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessaryBlack Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately
Conclusion – largest risks for water sources in Norrbotten is pollution/contamination
Increased runoff – transportation of organic matter, nutrients pesticides etc from forestry and agriculture to the water sources
• Diffuse pollution – slow process• Study trends – to act before it is too late!
Flooding – of low situated installations• Increased risks of microbiological contamination• Consider the location and the water treatment
Overflow from sewage plants and pumping stations• Urgent contamination – fast and serious process• Dimensioning considering new conditions
Conclusion• The method can be used as a tool for the municipalities in
their continuing work with other water sources
• The water supply in Norrbotten, as well as in the rest of Scandinavia, is facing many threats and risks, whereof the climate change is one that should be taken seriously
