how will dartmouth still be relevant in 20 years?

How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in 20 years?Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director September 4th, 2011

Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010

© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

Motivations:• Increased access to

opportunity• Wicked problems• Impatient actors• Enlightened self interest

My frame of reference

Private sector:• Strategy and management

consultant• Software entrepreneur• MBA

Nonprofit sector:• Consultant to National Park

Service, charter schools, and health services

• Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed

Class of 2028 Class of 2031 Class of 2032


Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?

The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work

The changing learner

Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching

3


Predictions for higher ed in 2020

More students Higher completion rates Lower cost per student Smaller chunks of learning More, measurable indicators of learning


Four Challenges for the Next Decade

Completion challenge Middle skill job demand Stagnant ~40% AA+

attainment levels Low completion rates

Demographic challenge Increasing diversity Low academic readiness “Non-traditional” new

normal

Funding challenge State budget cuts Limits to student and

family ability to pay and to borrow

Quality challenge Increasing demands from

global economy Questioning what students

are really learning


Jobs in today’s (and tomorrow’s) workforce require more education

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

High S

choo

l Drop

out

High S

choo

l Grad

uate

Some C

olleg

e / A

ssoc

iate's

Bache

lor's

& High

er

32%40%

12% 16%11%

30% 27%32%

10%

28% 29% 33%

Percentage of Workforce by Education Level1973 2002 2018


The college access agenda has been a success…

Postsecondary fall enrollment 1963-2005

Source: IPEDS


% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)

55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)

2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)

3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)

4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)

5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)

6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)

7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)

8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)

9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)

10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)

11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)

12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)

13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)

14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)

15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)

…But degree attainment rates are flat

9Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported)


Why? Low completion rates – our dirty little secret

Source: NELS 1988

Total Private not-for-profit

Public 4-year

Private for-profit

Public 2-year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bachelor'sAssociate'sCertificate

Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years

53%

73%

61%55%

38%


The quality of degrees themselves is being questioned

Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen universities who took the Collegiate Learning Assessment 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains

in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college”

32 percent of the students whom they followed did not, in a typical semester, take “any courses with more than 40 pages of reading per week

50 percent “did not take a single course in which they wrote more than 20 pages over the course of the semester”


Tuition and fees are growing rapidly…

Source: New York Times


Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP)

…And state funding is declining

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=711


Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional

75%

25%

“Traditional”• Enter college

directly after high school

• Enroll fulltime• Financially

dependent on their parents

“Non-traditional”• Financially

independent (>50%)

• Have dependents of their own (27%)

• Work full time (38%)

• Enroll part time (49%)

Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).






15


Education is the primary arbiter of opportunity in the U.S.

Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”

Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated)

Education of parents

Race of head of household

Health status of parents

State of residence

Female-headed household

Financial assets

Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms)

30%

100%

14%

8%5%

3%

1-28%12-39%

Composition of total intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel


Higher education is not equitably distributed

Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.

Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24


Graduate all students college-

ready

Help all young people get

degrees that count

College-Ready Postsecondary Success

Helping all young people reach their

full potential

U.S. Program Goal

The Gates Foundation’s work in the U.S. All young people who have the will to get a postsecondary credential should have the way to do it


Gates Foundation postsecondary priorities

Focusing on completion, not just access, in our measurement, funding, and financial aid systems

Accelerating time to a degree through restructuring developmental education and bridging the gaps between high school and college Unlocking the power of technology to personalize learning and student progression

1

2

3






20


Changing generational context

• Video games• PC• Email• CDs• Individualist

GenerationX

• Web• Cell phone• IM• MP3s• Online

community

Net GenBaby Boomers

TV generation Typewriters Telephone Memos Family focus

http://www.grownupdigital.com/


Changing generational context

NetGen’s Online 12.2 hrs per week• 28% > GenX, 50% > Boomer

NetGen 50% more likely to send IMs than GenX, 2x as likely to read Blogs, just as likely to use Social Networking Sites

70% HH Broadband (up from 29% in 2004)

85% HH Mobile Phones• Data to phone: 50% NetGen, 33% GenY,

20% Boomers


How does Net Gen use the internet?For social, search, and commerce

Less for formal expression

• Use an online social networking site like MySpace or Facebook 73%

• Go online to get news or information about current events or politics 62%

• Buy things online, such as books, clothing, or music 48%

• Share something online that you created yourself, such as your own artwork, photos, stories or videos 38%

• Look online for health, dieting, or physical fitness information 31%

• Take material you find online like songs, text or images and remix it into your own artistic creation 21%

• Create or work on your own online journal or blog 14%

• Use Twitter 8%• Visit virtual worlds such as Gaia,

Second Life or Habbo Hotel 8%

Source: Pew Survey of Internet & American Life, 2009


How to make sense of all this?

Formal LearningInformal Learning

Emerging Product Categories

Established Product Categories

Online Learning

P2P

Tutoring

Services Oriented

Community Driven

Content Driven

SocialGames

Simulation

Interven-tions

Platform Driven

Aggregators

Open Publishing

Reference

-ware

Learning Commun

ities

Online Resources

Learning Games

MobileSocial Networks

Source: Startl


Bloom can help: the two-sigma problem

Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984


Five Trends I'm Watching

1 Open content and cheap devices democratize information


Open educational resources moving beyond PDFs…

2,000 MIT courses, many with lecture capture

2,400 lessons, delivered 78,406,600 times – and counting

http://ocw.mit.edu/

http://ocw.mit.edu/

http://ocw.mit.edu/about/next-decade

http://adclick.g.doubleclick.net/aclk?sa=L&ai=BjVcxhFuKTseEBom9sQf_yZDmAsvNuYMCAAAAEAEg94TLDTgAWJu6kKUNYMnGqYvApNgPsgELb2N3Lm1pdC5lZHW6AQlnZnBfaW1hZ2XIAQnaARNodHRwOi8vb2N3Lm1pdC5lZHUv4AECwAIC4AIA6gILSE9NRV9TTE9UX0L4AvDRHpADrAKYA-ADqAMB0ASQTuAEAaAGFg&num=0&sig=AOD64_1yiQgGMnkLqqS4CkPrRPQ-Q58pUw&client=ca-pub-6588555046597237&adurl=http://www.ocwconsortium.org/courses

http://www.hippocampus.org/;jsessionid=648AD9821B68248E44CEB223F5122C65


…And available at students’ fingertips

Source: BCG, Unleashing the Potential of Technology in Education, Allison Bailey, Tyce Henry, Lane McBride, J. Puckett, August 2011



2 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware



“Improvement in post-secondary education will require converting teaching from a ‘solo-sport’ to a community-based research activity.”

-Herbert Simon, Nobel Laureate


Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/


Accelerated Learning Results

OLI students completed course in half the time with half the number of in-person course meetings

OLI students showed significantly greater learning gains (on the national standard “CAOS” test for statistics knowledge) and similar exam scores

No significant difference between OLI and traditional students in follow-up measures given 1+ semesters later

Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative


Model challengers taking many forms

http://www.wgu.edu/

http://thencat.org/

http://www.emporium.vt.edu/

http://www.apple.com/education/itunesu/

http://www.academicearth.org/

http://creativecommons.org/

http://www.ocwconsortium.org/index.php

http://www.open.ac.uk/




3 Social media enables learning networks



Social media for social integration

Facebook friends

Wall posts

109

182

82

123

PersistersNon-persis-ters

Correlation of Facebook activity to persistence

Source: Morris, Reese, Beck, and Mattis, Facebook Usage as a Predictor of Retention at a Private 4-Year Institution, Journal of College Student Retention, 2010

http://www.inigral.com/




Layering social into learning networks


How many people would you like in your learning network?






4 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization


Per semester credits:4 year: >=155 year: 12-146 year: <12

Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students

Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;


Amazon features

41

http://www.amazon.com/


CONNECTION ENTRY PROGRESS COMPLETION

Student Data System

Student Engagement

Leadership Focused on Completion

Predictive modeling and targeted interventions

• Iowa Community Colleges Online Consortium

• Sinclair Community College• University of Maryland (BC)• Capella University

• American Public University System

• Rio Salado College• Purdue University


43






4 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization

5 DIY is for real and informal learning brands emerge


DIY U

http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/

http://www.youtube.com/education?b=400

http://cache.smashwire.com/bookCovers/4919a7af1da918924fbe56d7c67ea944ede1e8fe


New brands and entrants?

http://www.ted.com/

http://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/


So what should Dartmouth faculty do?I don’t know. But if I had to venture…1. Accelerate blended learning

efforts2. Integrate SCVNGR-like

approaches into academics3. Link students into learning

networks4. “Flip” the classroom5. Others?

Thank You

Josh Jarrett, Deputy DirectorEducation – Postsecondary Success

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.gatesfoundation.org/

how will dartmouth still be relevant in 20 years?

Documents

postsecondary ed class

postsecondary degrees

learning im watching3

changing learner

degree attainment rates

edge of major transformation

education requirements

increased access