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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 www.dehavilland.co.uk
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Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3
The conferences ................................................................................................. 4
Labour policies – room for manouvre? ......................................................... 6
Could they work together? .............................................................................. 7
Notable fringes .................................................................................................. 9
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Had someone unfamiliar with British politics, wandering along Brighton pier on a September
afternoon, come across the Labour Party Conference, they may have struggled to believe they were
witnessing a Party that months before had lost a General Election. Indeed, the overwhelming mood
was of a Party gearing-up for another fight.
Though he did not take the Commons, when Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn took to the stage he
spoke as a Leader, previously thought by friend and foe to be unelectable, who had managed to
stave-off electoral calamity, expand the Party’s ranks, and deprive the Conservatives of a majority.
More than ever before, Mr Corbyn seemed credible when he declared: “We have become a
government in waiting”.
In spite of his new-found swagger, however, a Labour government remains a distant prospect, not
least because the next General Election is not scheduled to take place until 2022.
Even if a sudden election sprung forth from a collapsing Conservative government, it is far from
certain the Party could repeat the feat it achieved in 2017. Only a week before this year’s Party
Conference, Compass, a notable left wing think tank, warned that the Party may struggle to attract
working class voters given its growing role as “the party of the cosmopolitan cities”.
Moreover, with major parties increasingly struggling to take an absolute majority in the Commons,
it is quite possible that a Labour government would need the support of smaller parties like the SNP
or Liberal Democrats if it wished to command a majority in the Commons.
In the aftermath of the SNP, Liberal Democrat and Labour Party Conferences, we look at the main
headlines and take a look at whether either of the smaller parties could be a viable partner for a
future Labour government.
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Labour
After gaining seats in a General Election that was
expected to decimate the Party, the message from
this year’s Conference about the prospect of
another General Election was clear: “Labour is
ready”.
While Mr Corbyn talked of change in politics,
however, little had changed in the programme he
put forward for government. For him, it was clear
that the General Election result had vindicated his
more left wing approach as he pledged to deliver a
platform of “socialism for the 21st century”.
This was characterised by calls for financial reform
and increasing the role of the state in the economy,
including through the renationalisation of companies in sectors like the water industry.
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s statement that a Labour government would bring Private
Finance Initiative contracts back into public ownership was also largely a reiteration of previously
announced policies.
Overall, there was little in terms of major new policy announcements, though some saw his call for
“unimpeded access” to the Single Market as an indication that the Party’s stance on Brexit was
changing. However, while it remains true that Labour has called for access to the Single Market and
a relationship more closely resembling the current one, the distinction from the Government
position remains relatively subtle.
Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer’s speech focused on the divisions within the Government benches,
but could do little to disguise the comparative similarity between the Government and Opposition.
The main area of difference, namely retaining membership of the Customs Union in the long term,
was labelled only as a “possible end destination”, and was far from a solid commitment. Instead, he
presented the Party as a more “progressive” option for life after Brexit.
Overall, the Party Conference was less about setting out a stall so much as declaring a readiness to
fight.
SNP
The SNP remains the dominant force in Scottish politics, and it was clear from this year’s
Conference that even if the Party was bruised by the result of the Election, it was far from beaten.
Major speeches
Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn –
Summary and transcript
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell –
Summary and transcript
Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan
Ashworth – Summary and transcript
Shadow Education Secretary Angela
Rayner – Summary and transcript
Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir
Starmer – Summary and transcript
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
– Summary and transcript
Finance and Constitution Secretary
Derek Mackay – Transcript
SNP Westminster Leader Ian Blackford
- Transcript
Liberal Democrat Leader Vince Cable –
Summary and transcript
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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon acknowledged that the the Party had “lost good colleagues from the
House of Commons”, but also noted their strong position in opinion polls.
She went on to make a series of policy announcements, many of which bore a resemblance to
positions taken by the Labour Party. These included proposals for a new Scottish National
Investment Bank and a publicly-owned energy company.
Nevertheless, Ms Sturgeon was far from talk of amity when she lambasted Scottish Labour for its
internal rivalries, suggesting that “ferrets in a sack distance themselves from Scottish Labour”.
In the rivalries of Scottish politics, it seems the relative similarities of the parties in politics counts for
little.
Most striking, of course, was the parking of any talk of an independence referendum. Instead, the
announcements in areas like childcare and a new Climate Change Bill. Though there can be little
doubt that this is the Party’s ultimate goal, it seems that it is more than willing to let the issue rest –
for now.
Liberal Democrats
With the Left and the Right both tearing off into the ideological wilderness, the Liberal Democrats
are the only option available for someone who isn’t a rabid ideologue – or so the party would like
you to believe.
As Deputy Leader, and some suspect future Leader, Jo Swinson declared: “The Faragey Trumpy
angry arsey shouty slogans aren’t a solution to anything”.
When her Leader took to the stage, he called for “political adults” to take the helm in all parties,
presenting his Party as the centrists.
However, the platform he presented was closer in tone to the Conservative Party than Labour, with
an emphasis on vocational education, combatting climate change, and restrained public sector
investment in infrastructure.
The two main areas of divergence came in his calls for constitutional reform, including votes for 16
and 17 year olds, and in the oft-repeated demands for Britain to remain in the EU.
While this is radicalism of a sort, it represents a distinct policy platform that appears ill-suited for
coordination with another party.
The focus of the Liberal Democrats appears to be rebuilding its support and trying to wield
influence from the backbenches rather than preparing for a spell in government. Given that the
Party has lost two thirds of its voters since 2010, and is far away from regaining its position as the
third party of British politics, this is unlikely to change in the near future.
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Which areas of policy could Labour and its hypothetical coalition parties agree on – and what might be the sticking points?
Leaving the European Union Both support staying in the Single Market.
LDs want a second EU Referendum.
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK Both parties’ manifestos pledge to protect EU citizens’ rights.
Establishing a National Investment Bank SNP supports creating a Scottish Investment Bank, LDs would
create a British Housing and Infrastructure Development Bank.
Renationalising the railways Neither parties’ manifesto mentions this.
Renationalising utilities (water companies) Neither parties’ manifesto mentions this.
Free University Education * *SNP have scrapped tuition fees for Scottish students.
Banning Fracking * * *SNP have declared a fracking moratorium in Scotland and
LDs pledge to “oppose” it in their manifesto.
Increasing taxes on businesses and the rich
(Corporation Tax and 50p tax band) * **
* SNP support raising top income tax band to 50p and oppose
any “further reduction”in Corportation Tax.
** LDs want to add 1p to all Income Tax brackets to pay for
NHS. LDs would restore Corporation Tax to 20%.
Ending zero-hours contracts LDs would create a “a formal right to request a fixed contract”.
Guaranteeing the Pensions Triple Lock Both have stated they support policy.
Scrapping Trident LDs committed to maintaining a “minimum nuclear
deterrent”.
Rent controls Neither mentions rent controls in their June manifestos.
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Given the growing uncertainty of British politics, it is feasible that Labour will in the near
future be able to hold a majority in the House of Commons after a future election. However,
the collapse in the Party’s support in Scotland and continuing dominance of the SNP in what
were once Labour heartlands makes that difficult to imagine.
Even if Labour were to become the largest party, it may have to rely on another party to stay
in power in the event of a Hung Parliament.
There are three options available for a Party that lacks an overall majority in the House of
Commons if it wants to govern:
Coalition: An agreement between two parties whereby both serve jointly in
government, with the smaller party potentially providing members to serve as
ministers or secretaries of state.
Confidence and Supply: This term describes an arrangement whereby the governing
party reaches an agreement with a smaller party or parties for their support on votes
critical to the survival of the Government, including on Budgets and motions of no
confidence.
Vote by vote: A scenario where no formal or informal understanding exists and the
Government Whips attempt a construct a majority for each key Commons vote.
In theory, it is possible for Labour to form a Coalition with the SNP and Liberal Democrats,
alongside a number of smaller partners like the Green Party. As the policy matrix above
shows, while there are certain crucial policy differences, all three parties have areas of
common ground.
The area of greatest difference is clearly on the issue of a second Brexit referendum. This is a
major dividing line between Labour and its potential partners, and could be one of the
primary sticking points in any discussion.
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Another area of difference not noted above relates to the issue of Scottish independence.
However, given the increasing diffidence of the SNP on this matter, this may not prove
insuperable as an obstacle to collaboration.
Perhaps the clearest indication of what might happen came after the 2017 General Election.
During the campaign, all three parties ruled out a formal coalition to get into Government.
SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon, however, did confirm that her Party would consider
supporting Labour on an “issue-by-issue basis”, suggesting that they could form a
"progressive alternative to a Conservative government". This appears to be closest to a
Confidence and Supply arrangement, though it leaves open the prospect of a Government
arranged on a vote by vote basis.
After the results were announced on 8 June 2017, the parties reaffirmed this position.
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell stated that his Party would seek to govern, but as a
minority – ruling out any formal deals with smaller parties of a similar persuasion.
He went on to suggest that Labour would only seek to enact policies on which there was
support across the political divide.
However, as Labour was the smaller of the two major parties, and given that Prime Minister
Theresa May sought to eventually form a minority government of her own, the prospect of a
Labour government diminished.
It is possible that the reason Mr McDonneell rejected the prospect of a deal was simply the
arithmetics of the situation. Even if Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats had all
united, they could not have held a majority in Parliament. Ruling in isolation, without
having to make compromises, may simply have seemed a more appealing prospect.
However, the reluctance before and after the results were announced suggests that Labour’s
aversion to coalitions and cross-party deals is rather more deep set. In the words of New
Statesman Deputy Editor Julia Rampen: “There are plenty of reasons why Labour should
not form a coalition with the SNP – like the fact it's more fun to win seats off them, and
voters don't really like coalitions in the first place.”
It seems unlikely that the Liberal Democrats would be eager for a Coalition either, given
their poor experience in their last attempt.
Meanwhile, Labour may feel that a deal with the SNP would ultimately amount to a
concession that the Party has no hope of a resurgence in Scotland.
What may change this is a result in which the Conservative Party is the largest single party,
but Labour and the SNP can form a majority Government together. However, if Labour can
hold out as a minority government, then this is likely to be its preferred choice – not least if
it feels it could rely on the SNP’s support on major issues regardless of any deal.
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Brexit
It was perhaps no surprise to see that Brexit was the subject of much discussion at both the
SNP and Labour Party Conferences.
In one fringe, SNP Westminster Trade and Investment Spokesperson Hannah Bardell
declared that, given the financial services industry employed over 150,000 people in
Scotland, it would be a huge act of self-harm to leave the Single Market and Customs
Union. In another fringe on “Brexit, Employment and Workers’ Rights”, Brexit Minister
Michael Russell contended that the impact of ending Freedom of Movement would be huge
for Scotland. He added that when employment rights were transferred to the UK, the
Scottish Parliament should receive greater powers to meet its workforce needs.
Similar themes emerged at the Labour Party Conference, where Shadow Home Secretary
Diane Abbott said at a fringe that she did not want to have an immigration system post-
Brexit which stipulated one set of rules for EU nationals and another for non-EU nationals.
She nevertheless said that it would be necessary to look at an overhaul of immigration that
provided fair rules and reasonable management.
In a separate fringe, Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer cited his hope that there
would be another general election before the negotiations were over so that the Party could
take over the talks and fight for a deal it believed in.
Energy
At an SNP Party Conference fringe entitled “Scotland's Energy Strategy - What's the plan?”,
Business, Innovation and Energy Minister Paul Wheelhouse stressed that the Scottish
Government wanted to create an attractive environment for investment in large-scale
infrastructure projects. He argued that the Scottish energy supply had to be decarbonised
and supported by the right infrastructure, adding that the Scottish Government would
publish a finalised energy strategy at the end of the year.
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Meanwhile, at the Labour Party Conference, Shadow Energy and Climate Change Minister
Dr Alan Whitehead during a fringe referenced the changing nature of the energy sector –
stating that it was necessary to devolve energy from the centre and enable cities to run their
own energy operations. At a separate fringe, Shadow Environment Secretary Sue Hayman
emphasised that Labour would seek to avoid “failures” such as that of the Government’s
Clean Air Strategy – she argued that this had failed to include any meaningful consultation
or engagement with the communities directly affected by the issue.
Housing
There were several fringe events on housing at the Labour Party Conference. During one of
them, Shadow Housing Secretary John Healey detailed what Labour’s Housing Manifesto
had set-out – including the creation of a new Housing Department in Whitehall, the biggest
council housing building programme for three decades and a new type of discounted first
buy home. At the same time, Mr Healey called for action to strengthen regulation of and
safety standards governing social housing in the wake of the Grenfell Tower disaster.
Speaking at a separate fringe entitled “Housing after Grenfell”, Shadow Housing Minister
Tony Lloyd declared that the Government had pursued a “scorched earth policy” in relation
to housing. He stated that he felt housing needed a 20-year framework in which to operate,
believing Labour could deliver that when it entered government.
As with the Labour Party Conference, housing featured prominently at the SNP Party
Conference and, during one fringe, Local Government and Housing Minister Kevin
Stewart said that Scotland was embarking on its biggest housebuilding programme for
decades. He called for stakeholders, including the housing industry and councillors, to work
together. Following this, he cited his goal of ensuring 100% of social houses were “future-
proofed” by being adaptable to varying access needs and how this could benefit the elderly.
Education
Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner spoke about Labour’s pledge to set-up a
National Education Service during a fringe and argued that a national education system also
needed to respond effectively at a local level – stating that the current system was far too
centralised. Following this, responding to a question about the role of league tables in
tackling or causing inequality in education, Ms Rayner said she did not agree with league
tables or Ofsted ratings.
Meanwhile, at another fringe Deputy First Minister and Education and Skills Secretary
John Swinney referenced the main aim of the Scottish Government which was to bring the
different stakeholders in education policy-making together. He also stressed that at the “core
of the Government reforms in Scottish education” was an expansion of professional learning
in schools.
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Transport
In a fringe on how to tackle pollution and congestion, Shadow Transport Secretary Andy
McDonald declared that improving air quality was an integral part of creating a fairer and
more prosperous society. He contended that the Government had passed the buck to local
authorities on air quality, noting that Labour would introduce clean air zones in major cities.
Speaking at a fringe entitled “The Rail Interview”, Mr McDonald also addressed Labour’s
plans for the renationalisation of the railways – noting that its plans were premised on a
phased programme of bringing franchises back into public ownership as they expired. He
added that there had to be a fairer trade union legislative framework in effect.
Meanwhile, during a fringe at the SNP Party Conference, SNP Westminster Transport,
Infrastructure and Energy Spokesperson Alan Brown noted that the SNP was in favour of
the public sector being able to bid for rail franchises. He also contended that Network Rail
responsibilities should be devolved to Scotland, before saying that, whilst he was not
opposed to the idea, a policy decision on full nationalisation had not been taken.