houston area constraint mitigation: phase ii and tnp- bell county project

HOUSTON AREA CONSTRAINT MITIGATION: PHASE II and

TNP- BELL COUNTY PROJECT

Robert Lona, P.E.&

Don Le ERCOT System Planning

RPG 04/13/2007 Houston Area Constraint Phase II

CNP PROJECT JUSTIFICATION

• CONCERNS ABOUT FUTURE NORTH – HOUSTON IMPORT CONSTRAINTS AFTER HACM PHASE 1(HILLJE SUB)

• CONCERNS ON ADDITIONAL CONGESTION ON TOMBAL 345KV AUTOS


CNP PROPOSED OPTIONS

• INCREASE N – H IMPORTS - SINGLETON OPTIONS 1-4 - SINGLETON OPTION 5(SUB)• RELIEVE TOMBALL 345KV AUTO CONGESTION - OPTION A(HARDIN SUB) - OPTION B1(ROTHWOOD SUB) - OPTION B2 (ROTHWOOD SUB) - OPTION C (HUMBLE SUB)

NOTE: AFTER INITIAL STUDIES, SINGLETON OPTIONS #1 - #3 WERE NOT EVALUATED FURTHER, DUE TO LACK OF INCREASED IMPORT CAPABILITY FOR NORTH TO HOUSTON

POWER TRANSFERS


SO4 vs SO5 PRODUCTION COST SAVING COMPARISONS

-$4.00

-$3.00

-$2.00

-$1.00

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

$11.00

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

$16.00

2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N C

OS

T S

AV

ING

S -

$M

S S_SC S_OG S_SC_OG

SO4 SO5

$0.24 M

$ 3.28 M

S=Sandow 5SC=Sandy Creek 1OG=Oak Grove 1&2


EFFECT OF SINGLETON PROJECTS ON TOMBAL 345KV AUTO CONGESTION

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

$9,000,000

$10,000,000

$11,000,000

$12,000,000

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

MA

RG

INA

L C

ON

GE

STI

ON

CO

ST

NOTE: NO CONGESTION IN BASE CASE ACROSS ALL GEN SCENARIOS

SO4 CONFIGURATION SO5 CONFIGURATION

S_GEN S_SC_GEN S_OG_GEN S_SC_OG_GEN S_GEN S_SC_GEN S_OG_GEN

S_SC_OG_GEN

S=Sandow 5SC=Sandy Creek 1OG=Oak Grove 1&2

PROPOSED EAST BELL COUNTY – TNP ONE 345KV DOUBLE CKT.


East Bell County – TNP One 345KV DB CKTUPGRADE RATTLESNAKE – LAKE CRK 345KV

UPGRADE TEMPLE – SALADO 345KV TO 3200A UPGRADE TNP ONE – TWIN

OAK 345KV DOUBLE CKT.

UPGRADE TEMPLE – BOGGY CREEK 138KV TO 1146A

SANDY CREEK GEN

OAK GROVE GEN

SANDOW GEN

TWIN OAK 3 GEN


PROPOSED EAST BELL COUNTY – TNP ONE PROJECT

• PROPOSED IN-SERVICE PEAK 2011

PROPOSED UPGRADE COST

NEW TNP ONE-BELL COUNTY 40 MILE 345 kV DBCKT - 2700A $ 48,580,000

EAST BELL COUNTY 345 kV SUB $ 1,048,000

THREE 345 kV BREAKERS @ TNP ONE SUB $ 3,205,000

RECONDUCTOR TEMPLE - SALADO 345 kV DBCKT TO 3200A $ 6,713,000

UPGRADE TEMPLE - BOGGY CREEK 138 kV CKT TO 1146A $ 350,000

TOTAL COST $ 69,337,000


PRODUCTION COST SAVINGS (PCS) OF EAST BELL COUNTY - TNP ONE PROJECT WITHOUT SINGLETON SUBSTATION IN BASECASE

6.06

13.74 13.36

33.54

6.78

11.93

27.35

52.48

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

BASECASE TWIN OAKS 3 OAK GROVE 1 OAK GROVE1&2

SANDY CREEK SANDY CREEK+ TWIN OAKS 3

SANDY CREEK+ OAK GROVE

1&2


1&2 + TWINOAKS 3

GENERATION SCENARIO

PC

S (

$M)

MIN PCS NEEDED: $11.56 M2011


PRODUCTION COST SAVINGS (PCS) OF EAST BELL COUNTY-TNP ONE 345 Kv LINE WITH SINGLETON SUBSTATION IN BASE CASE

11.29

14.27

22.89

6.00

10.04

21.61

34.04

-5.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

BASE CASE TWIN OAKS 3 OAK GROVE 1 OAK GROVE1&2

SANDY CREEK SANDY CREEK+ TWIN OAKS

3


1&2


1&2 + TWINOAKS 3

GENERATION SCENARIO

PC

S (

$M)

MIN PCS NEEDED: $10.38 M

2011


PRODUCTION COST SAVINGS (PCS) OF EAST BELL COUNTY-TNP ONE PROJECT WITH SINGLETON SUBSTATION IN BASE CASE

-5.12

11.73

14.45

22.99

5.43

9.92

23.58

38.98

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

BASECASE TWIN OAKS 3 OAK GROVE 1 OAK GROVE1&2

SANDY CREEK SANDY CREEK+ TWIN OAKS

3


1&2


1&2 + TWINOAKS 3

GENERATION SCENARIO

PC

S (

$M)

MIN PCS NEEDED: $11.56 M

2011


PROPOSED OPTIONS TO REDUCE TOMBALL 345KV AUTO

CONGESTION


2011 TNPBC_SO5S_SC_OG PROPOSED OPTIONS

-$6.00

-$5.00

-$4.00

-$3.00

-$2.00

-$1.00

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

ROTHWOOD B1 ROTHWOOD B2 HARDIN A HUMBLE C

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N C

OS

T S

AV

ING

S -

$M

$3.04 M $3.16 M

$4.34 M

$ 2.63 MMIN PC SAVINGSMIN PC SAVINGS

MIN PC SAVINGS

MIN PC SAVINGS

SUMMARY

• MINIMUM ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FOR SINGLETON SO4 or SO5 OPTION REQUIRES SANDOW GENERATION

• MINIMUM ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FOR TNPBC PROJECT REQUIRES EITHER ONE OAKGROVE UNIT OR ONE TWIN OAK UNIT

• MINIMUM ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FOR TNPBC WITH SINGLETON ALSO REQUIRES ONE OAK GROVE UNIT OR ONE TWIN OAK UNIT

•ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF NEW SUB IN NORTH HOUSTON NEEDED BEFORE RECOMMENDATION


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houston area constraint mitigation: phase ii and tnp- bell county project

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