housing market update greater moncton0104.nccdn.net/1_5/2d9/0a0/2f6/moncton-housing... · canada...

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Housing Market Update

Greater Moncton

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Multi-Residential/Rental Market

Resale Market

2013/2014 Outlook

Housing Market Drivers

New Home Market – Single Family Homes

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONSource: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Em

plo

yed/L

abour

Forc

e (

000’s)

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Employment Labour Force Unemployment Rate

Moncton CMA

Total Employment, Labour Force (000’s) and

Unemployment Rate (%)

Unem

plo

yment

Rat

e (

%)


Annual Employment Growth

2.2%

7.4%

1.0%

2.6%

0.3% 0.1%

-0.6%

4.5%

1.6%

-3.2%

0.3%

4.3%

-2.5%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YTD

Moncton CMA

Average Annual

Increase (2001-2012)1.7% Employed 2012 74,200


Annual Employment Change by Age GroupYear-to-Date 2013 vs. 2012

-18.9%

0.9%2.3%

-24%

-20%

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

15-24 25-44 45-64

Moncton CMA

Year-to-date = January to October


Annual Employment Change by Employment TypeYear-to-Date 2013 vs. 2012

-3.0%

3.9%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Full-Time Part-Time

Moncton CMA

Year-to-date = January to October


-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

Provincial Migration to Alberta

Alberta continues to

attract people from

New Brunswick

Most of the people

leaving are under 45

years of age

Migration slowed

during the

2008/2009

recession

Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONSource: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data

Net Migration

2002-2011

Total In-Migration: 2002-2011

66,510


Net Migration

2002-2011


66,510

Total Out-Migration: 2002-2011

50,757


Net Migration 2002-2011


66,510

Total Out-Migration: 2002-2011

50,757

Net Population Gain 15,753


-2,745

4,791

8,723

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Only 2 counties recorded significant

positive net-migration

Largest inflows of people were to the

Moncton and Fredericton areas


Net Migration by County

2006-2011


426616

1,725

2,303

2,839

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

York County

recorded the

largest inflow of

international

migration

The inflow of

international

migrants is

centered around

the areas with

universities

International Migration by County

2006-2011



7.2%

13.8%

25.4%

18.1%22.0%

29.1%

20.4%

31.6%26.4%

42.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percentage Share - International Migration

2002-2011



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Net Migration – Greater Moncton

Net Gain

Since

2000-2001

18,521

Average Annual

Gain Since

2000-2001

1,543


(Westmorland County)


3,4264,628

6,894

2,799

774

18,521

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0-17 Yrs 18-24 Yrs 25-44 Yrs 45-64 Yrs 65 Yrs + Total


Net-Migration by Age Group (2000-2011)

Greater Moncton

(Westmorland County)

Total Share by Age Group

0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

18.5% 25.0% 37.2% 15.1% 4.2%

80.7%



Resale Market


2013/2014 Outlook


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONSource: CMHC

34.4%

71.9% 74.6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YTD

Multiple Starts as a Percentage of Total Starts

Moncton CMA

Residential construction shifted

toward multi-residential units

Apartment and semi-detached

units account for the change

2013 YTD = January to August


Apartment Starts January to September

Moncton CMA

143

197

354 345

87

184

321

290

233

78

260

292

508

318

0

200

400

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: CMHC


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13

Avg. Monthly Single Starts (Jan. 1973 - Sept. 2013)

Apartment Starts (12 MMA)

Source: CMHC

Apartment Starts – Historical Perspective

Moncton CMA


Apartment Starts as a % of Multiple Starts

Moncton CMA

75%78%

85%

68%

25%

38%43%

39% 38%

26%

48%51%

57%

64%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: CMHC

2000-2003 2004-2009 2010-2012

Apartments account for

most multiple starts

- Semi-detached < $150,000

- Mortgage payment comparable

to monthly rent

Semi-detached

units priced above

$150,000

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONSource: CMHC

Rental Market

Moncton CMA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

6.7%7.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 F

Monthly Average

Under Construction

Jan. 2005 – Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 – Sep. 2013

227 576


4.3%4.6%

3.1%3.6%

6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview

2011 2012

Source: CMHC

Vacancy Rate by Submarket

Moncton CMA


Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Unit Type

Moncton CMA

$485

$619

$731

$897

$709

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Bachelor One Bed Two Bed Three Bed Total

2011 2012

1The Percentage Change of Average Rent is a measure of the market movement, and is based on those structures that were common to the survey sample

for both years.Source: CMHC

Estimate of Average Rent Change1 – Oct 2011 to Oct 2012

One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units

2.5% 1.9% 1.6%


$709 $702

$752

$720

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Moncton CMA Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview

2011 2012

Source: CMHC

Private Apartment Average Rent ($) by Submarket

Moncton CMA

The average rent

was higher in all

zones in 2012

The City of

Dieppe posted the

highest average

rent in 2012


2013/2014 Outlook

Rental Market

Moncton

CMA2012 2013F % Change 2014F

Vacancy Rate 6.7% 8.0% 1.3 pts 9.5%

Average

Rent (Two Bedroom)

$731 $745 + 2% $760

Source and Forecast: CMHC

Further increase in the vacancy rate expected in 2013

Expected rent increase in 2013 will range between 1.5% and 2.5%


460

360

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: CMHC

Semi-Detached Starts – Historical Perspective

Moncton CMA

7th Consecutive year with

over 300 semi-detached

starts

Growth driver during

the past decade:

Price

Average Starts 2005-2012

375


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Avg. Monthly Semi-Detached Starts (Jan. 1973 - Sept. 2013)

Semi-Detached Starts (12 MMA)

Source: CMHC

Semi-Detached Starts – Historical Perspective

Moncton CMA


72

4062

112

154172

264280

348

254270

256

294

142

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: CMHC

Semi-Detached StartsJanuary to September

Moncton CMA


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YTD

Single Semi-Det.

Single-Detached vs. Semi-Detached Starts

Moncton CMA

2002

-2008

The decline in single starts was offset

by rising semi-detached starts

2009

-2012

Both market segments decline

due to weakening demand

Source: CMHC

YTD =January to September


Semi-Detached Starts by Submarket

Moncton CMA

188

66

38

294

98

20 18

142

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Moncton CMA

2012 2013

Source: CMHC


27%

73%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YTD

< $150,000 > $150,000

Source: CMHC

Percentage of Absorbed Semi-Detached

Units by Price Range

Moncton CMA



26.8%

69.0%

4.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Less than

$150,000

$150,000 -

$200,000

$200,000

plus

Source: CMHC

Percentage of Absorbed Semi-Detached

Units by Price Range (January to July – 2013)

Moncton CMA

Semi-Detached

Unit

Two Bedroom

Unit

Monthly Carrying

CostAverage Rent

2008

$8461 $656

2013

$1,2082 $731

1Based on $120,000 fixed rate mortgage/25 year

amortization, 5 year fixed - posted rate 5.7% + property tax

2Based on $170,000 fixed rate mortgage/25 year

amortization, 5 year fixed - posted rate 5.2 % + property tax


0

20

40

60

80

100

Unabsorbed Semi-Detached (12 MMA)

Absorbed Semi-Detached (12 MMA)

Semi-Detached Homes – Absorbed and

Unabsorbed Units (12 month moving average)

Moncton CMA

Source: CMHC

Supply of unabsorbed units trending upward in 2013

despite decreased starts due to reduced demand


13%

16%

2%

0%

9%

0.3%

1%

6%

4%

8%

2%

6%

0.2%1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YTD

Source: CMHC

Condominium Starts as a Percentage

of Multiple Starts

Moncton CMA

Condominium starts

as a percentage of

multiple starts

remain low in 2013

In recent years,

condominium starts

have been mostly

row-type units


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONSource and Forecast: CMHC

Multiple Starts

Moncton CMA 2012 2013F % Change 2014F

Multiple

Starts933 650 - 30% 420

Significant increase in the rental inventory will put upward pressure

on the local vacancy rate leading to reduced apartment starts

Increased supply of new rental units and rising prices for new semi-

detached units will likely to result in fewer semi-detached starts

2013/2014 Outlook



Resale Market

2013/2014 Outlook


New Home Market – Single

Family Homes


471439

554586 568

427 443

496

416

299344

288 291

185

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: CMHC

Single-Detached StartsJanuary to September

Moncton CMA

Single-detached starts trending down since 2003


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Avg. Monthly Single Starts (Jan. 1973 - Sept. 2013)

Single Starts (12 MMA)

Source: CMHC

Single-Detached Starts – Historical Perspective

Moncton CMA


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Single Starts (12 MMA) Unabsorbed (12 MMA)

Abso

rbed Inve

nto

ry

Unab

sorb

ed Inve

nto

ry

Single Starts and Unabsorbed Single-Detached Units

Moncton CMA

Source: CMHC


109

4832

291

6143

22

185

0

100

200

300

400

500

Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Moncton CMA

2012 2013

Source: CMHC

Single Starts by Submarket

Moncton CMA


$111,0

66

$136,3

66

$143,1

38

$148,0

96

$162,5

89

$168,8

83

$191,2

20

$208,6

53

$217,1

73

$226,9

21

$257,3

20

$276,7

30

$291,990

$322,910

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD

2013

Average New Home Price

Moncton CMA

Source: CMHC

Annual Increase

10Year Average + 7.5%

Average Two Storey (2012)

$333,419

2013 YTD = January to September


$322,910

$324,487

$267,304

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Moncton Saint John

Fredericton

Average New Home Price

Moncton CMA

Source: CMHC

2013

YTD

2013 YTD = January to September

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONSource and Forecast: CMHC

Single Starts


Single Starts 364 240 - 34% 230

The average price of a new home has increased significantly in 2013

Reduced demand will lead to fewer starts in 2013

2013/2014 Outlook



Resale Market

2013/2014 Outlook




0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


Average MLS® Sales (Jan. 1981 - Sept. 2013)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (MLS® Sales)

Source: CREA

MLS® Unit SalesJanuary to September

Moncton CMA


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MLS® Unit SalesJanuary to September

MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

Source: CREA

Greater Moncton


791

349215

1,773

763

281 235

1,685

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview Town Total

2012 2013


Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS® du Grand Moncton

MLS® Sales by SubmarketJanuary to September

Greater Moncton

Year-over-Year Change

Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview

-3.5% -19.5% +9.3%


$159,324

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

$150,000

$180,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YTD


Source: CREA

Average MLS® Sale Price

Greater Moncton

2011 Average

MLS® Sale Price

$158,561

2012 Average

MLS® Sale Price

$158,107

YTD = January to October


3.2%

9.4%

4.0%

8.4%

10.1%

2.8%

9.7%

1.9%

5.3%

1.5%

3.9%

0.0%0.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Source: CREA

Annual Price Growth (%) – Greater MonctonJanuary to October

Greater Moncton

Average %

Change

2001-2007

+ 6.8%

MLS® Sales

peaked in 2007

Average %

Change

2008-2013

2.2%


$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

Moncton City Dieppe City Riverview

2012 2013

Average MLS® Price by SubmarketJanuary to September

Greater Moncton


Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS® du Grand Moncton

Year-over-Year

Change in

Average MLS®

Sale Price

Moncton City

+2.3 %

Dieppe City

+ 0.7 %

Riverview

+ 2.2 %


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2012 2013

MLS® Sales by Price RangeJanuary to September

Greater Moncton


Source: Greater Moncton REALTORS® du Grand Moncton/CREA

50.1% 25.9% 11.7% 6.0% 4.9% 1.5%% Share of

Total Sales


-2.3%-1.5%

-5.7% -3.3%

-12.7%

26.9%

13.0%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Percentage Change in MLS® Sales by Price RangeJanuary to September

Greater Moncton



CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONMLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association

Source: CREA

New ListingsJanuary to October

Greater Moncton

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


-1.6%

-4.7%

12.4%

15.5%

2.3%

18.4%

1.6%3.0%

-10.0%

-1.4%

5.9%6.8%

1.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Source: CREA

New Listings (% Change) – Greater MonctonJanuary to October

Greater Moncton


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2103

YTD

Average Days on Market

Greater Moncton



YTD = January to September


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sales to New Listings Ratio

Greater Moncton

A sales to new-listings ratio between 40% and 60% generally

indicates a BALANCED market.


Source: CREA


Current Conditions – Resale Market

MLS® Sales Decreasing Buyer’s

New Listings Rising Buyer’s

Sales to New

Listings RatioDecreasing Buyer’s

Price Growth Slowing Balanced towards Buyer’s

Days on Market Increasing Balanced towards Buyer’s

Greater Moncton BUYER’S


Source: CMHC/Greater Moncton REALTORS® du Grand Moncton/CREA

Resale Market Classification

Greater Moncton



Resale Market

2013/2014 Outlook




Source : CMHC/CREA

2013 Outlook

Annual Transactions – New and Existing Home

Greater Moncton(Semi-detached + Row + Single-detached + MLS® Sales)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1980-1989 1990-1999 2010-2012

1,273 1,632 3,121



2013/2014 Outlook

Forecast: CMHC


Resale Market

Moncton

CMA2012 2013F

%

Change2014F

MLS® Sales 2,259 2,150 - 4.8% 2,050

Average

Price$158,106 $156,500 -1% $156,000

Moderate decline in existing homes sales expected in both 2013

and 2014



Residential Housing Starts


Total Housing

Starts1,297 890 -31% 650

Single Starts 364 240 -34% 230

Multiple

Starts933 650 -30 % 420

2013/2014 Outlook

Source and Forecast: CMHC


Thank You

Questions?

www.cmhc.ca

or

Call Claude Gautreau

at (506) 851-2742

http://www.cmhc.ca/

housing market update greater moncton0104.nccdn.net/1_5/2d9/0a0/2f6/moncton-housing... · canada...

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