housing market trends - propertypal.comn.ireland prices: q4 2020 “ the housing market ended the...

Housing Market Trends:Q4 2020

PropertyPal: Housing Market Trends Q4 2020 | 2

Housing market overview: Q4 2020

Sales Rentals

Apartments

£128,400Apartments

£686p/m

Houses

£176,300Houses

£654p/m

Annual price growth Annual rent growth Annual price growth Annual rent growth

Quarterly price growth Quarterly rent growth

All properties

£172,000All properties

£664p/m

Annual price growth Annual rent growthQuarterly price growth Quarterly rent growth

1.9% 1.5% 3.7% 4.7%

4.3% 3.9% 6.5%

2.0%

-4.0%

-0.3%

Quarterly price growth Quarterly rent growth

1.3% 2.0%


Prices by houses and apartments

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

ApartmentsHouses

£200,000

£180,000

£160,000

£140,000

£120,000

£100,000

Apartments

£128,400

Houses

£176,300

Annual price growth

Annual price growth

Quarterly price growth

Quarterly price growth

All properties

£172,000Annual

price growthQuarterly

price growth

1.9% 3.7%

4.3%

2.0%

-4.0%

-0.3%

N.Ireland prices: Q4 2020

“The housing market ended the year almost undeterred from the pandemic and enters 2021 on positive foundations. Overall ‘sale agreed’ levels were only 2% below ‘normal’ levels observed in 2019 and house

prices grew at sustainable rates in the region of 3.5%. Wealthier demographics played an important role in market activity with sales of 4 and 5+ beds increasing by 51% during the second half of the year compared to 2019 levels. Covid-19 has created a re-assessment of housing needs and it is noteworthy that prices of

apartments fell by 4.0% last year compared to growth of 4.3% of houses.

The opening quarter of 2021 is likely to show continued buoyancy as a backlog of sales complete and new buyers rush to beat the stamp duty tax break by the end of March. The outlook for later this year remains

more precarious and is dependent on a range of factors, not least the success and speed of the vaccine programme and the extent to which the wider economy can experience an uninterrupted recovery. Of

encouragement, several lenders have re-introduced mortgage products for customers with a 10% deposit which will act as a stimulus for the first-time buyer segment of the market.


new properties available to purchase in Q4 2020

more than the same period last year

5,977

17%

5,426houses

Location of advertised sales properties

Lisburn &Castlereagh

11%

Belfast

22%

Armagh City,Banbridge

& Craigavon

11%

Ards &North Down

12%

Mid &East Antrim

9%

Antrim &Newtownabbey

8%

CausewayCoast & Glens

7%

Newry, Mourne& Down

6%

Mid Ulster

5%

Derry City& Strabane

4%

Fermanagh& Omagh

4%

New listings on PropertyPal

551apartments


House prices by number of bedrooms

Houses Average price Annual price growth Quarterly price growth

2 bed £106,300 7.3% 1.9%

3 bed £145,200 4.3% 1.6%

4 bed £238,200 3.6% 2.3%

5+ bed £345,300 4.9% 3.1%

All houses £176,300 4.3% 2.0%

Apartments Average price Annual price growth Quarterly price growth

1 bed £93,000 -4.8% -0.7%

2 bed £123,400 -1.9% 0.4%

3+ bed £190,200 -13.9% -3.9%

All apartments £128,400 -4.0% -0.3%

£50,000

£0

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

£300,000

£350,000

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

2 bed3 bed4 bed5+ bed

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

£50,000

£0

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

£300,000

£350,000

1 bed2 bed3+ bed

ApartmentsHouses


House prices across Northern Ireland


Causeway Coast& Glens

Fermanagh& Omagh

Mid Ulster

Mid & EastAntrim


Belfast


Armagh City,Banbridge & Craigavon

Newry, Mourne& Down

Ards &North Down

Belfastall properties£191,300

annual5.7%

quarterly2.1%

Antrim & Newtownabbeyall properties£155,700

annual0.5%

quarterly0.6%

Mid & East Antrimall properties£147,200

annual1.5%

quarterly2.2%

Causeway Coast & Glensall properties£164,500

annual� -1.4%

quarterly�2.1%

Derry City & Strabaneall properties£140,400

annual� -0.5%

quarterly�1.0%

Ards & North Downall properties£196,000

annual4.6%

quarterly2.7%

Lisburn & Castlereaghall properties£194,300

annual1.4%

quarterly1.2%

Newry, Mourne & Downall properties£173,500

annual4.2%

quarterly0.6%

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon

all properties£149,200

annual6.2%

quarterly2.0%

Mid Ulsterall properties£144,700

annual0.6%

quarterly0.1%

Fermanagh & Omaghall properties£139,500

annual� -1.2%

quarterly0.0%

All properties

£172,000Annual

price growthQuarterly

price growth

1.9% 3.7%

Northern Ireland


+33%

+21%

+37%

+50%

% Change in house salesby number of bedrooms,

Q4 2019 vs. Q4 2020

2,000

0

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

Q4 201

5

Q3 201

5

Q2 201

5

Q1 201

5

No. of ‘sale agreed’ properties by quarter, N.Ireland, 2015-2020

Sale agreed properties

27%higher than this time last year

No. of sale agreed properties

4/5 bedIncreasing proportion of sales of

houses compared to2/3 bed houses


Top selling areas across Northern Ireland

Area Sales Council Area

Botanic 246 Belfast

Ormiston 228 Belfast

Titanic 223 Belfast

Causeway 188 Causeway Coast & Glens

Lisnasharragh 185 Belfast

Newtownards 158 Ards & North Down

Bangor East & Donaghadee 152 Ards & North Down

Balmoral 148 Belfast

Lurgan 147 Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon

Bangor Central 144 Ards & North Down

Holywood & Clandeboye 143 Ards & North Down

Castle 139 Belfast

Ards Peninsula 138 Ards & North Down

Castlereagh South 136 Lisburn & Castlereagh

Bangor West 134 Ards & North Down

0

400

200

1,000

800

600

1,400

1,200

1,600

Ferm

anag

h & O

mag

h

Mid

Ulster

Derry

& St

raba

ne

Newry

, Mou

rne &

Dow

n

Cause

way C

oast

& Glen

s

Mid

& East

Antrim

Antrim

& N

ewto

wnabb

ey

Armag

h, Ban

bridg

e & C

raiga

von

Lisbu

rn &

Cas

tlere

agh

Ards &

Nor

th D

own

Belfas

t

% change vs. Q4 2019 (RHS)Total sales (LHS)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Sale agreed properties in Q4 2020 by location No. of ‘sale agreed’ properties by detailed location


“

Rents by houses and apartments

Apartments

£686p/m

Houses

£654p/m

Annual rent growth

Aver

age

rent

per

mon

th

Annual rent growth

Quarterly rent growth

Quarterly rent growth

All properties

£664p/m

Annualrent growth

Quarterlyrent growth

1.5% 4.7%

3.9%

1.3%

6.5%

2.0%

ApartmentsHouses

£500

£600

£700

£650

£550

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

Ongoing economic and political uncertainty has stimulated exceptionally strong demand levels in the rental market leading to rising rents across both houses and apartments.

However, the supply of rental properties coming to the market has largely recovered to 2019 levels and leading indicators show signs of cooling demand levels. Rising rents against a

backdrop of falling incomes has created affordability pressures for households and the labour market profile suggests renters are more vulnerable to job losses compared to homeowners.

This may lead to falling rents later in the year.

N.Ireland rents: Q4 2020


new properties available to rent in Q4 2020

less than the same period last year

3,374

-3%

1,281apartments

Location of advertised rental properties

2,093houses

Armagh City,Banbridge

& Craigavon

8%

Belfast

46%

Ards &North Down

7%


7%

Mid &East Antrim

6%


7%

Newry, Mourne& Down

5%

CausewayCoast & Glens

6%


3%

Mid Ulster

3% Fermanagh& Omagh

2%

New listings on PropertyPal


Rents by number of bedrooms

Houses Average rent p/m Annual rent growth Quarterly rent growth

2 bed £550 3.2% 0.7%

3 bed £625 3.1% 1.0%

4 bed £874 6.3% 2.3%

5+ bed £1,226 9.6% 4.3%

All houses £654 3.9% 1.3%

Apartments Average rent p/m Annual rent growth Quarterly rent growth

1 bed £547 6.0% 1.2%

2 bed £672 6.0% 1.7%

3+ bed £943 9.9% 3.9%

All apartments £686 6.5% 2.0%

2 bed3 bed4 bed5+ bed

£600

£400

£200

£0

£800

£1,200

£1,000

£1,400

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

Q4 202

0

Q3 202

0

Q2 202

0

Q1 202

0

Q4 201

9

Q3 201

9

Q2 201

9

Q1 201

9

Q4 201

8

Q3 201

8

Q2 201

8

Q1 201

8

Q4 201

7

Q3 201

7

Q2 201

7

Q1 201

7

Q4 201

6

Q3 201

6

Q2 201

6

Q1 201

6

1 bed2 bed3+ bed

£600

£400

£200

£0

£800

£1,200

£1,000

£1,400

ApartmentsHouses

Aver

age

rent

per

mon

th

Aver

age

rent

per

mon

th


Rents across Northern Ireland


Causeway Coast& Glens

Fermanagh& Omagh

Mid Ulster

Mid & EastAntrim


Belfast


Armagh City,Banbridge & Craigavon

Newry, Mourne& Down

Ards &North Down

Belfastall properties£742p/m

annual4.4%

quarterly0.9%

Antrim & Newtownabbeyall properties£569p/m

annual1.8%

quarterly0.7%

Mid & East Antrimall properties£546p/m

annual2.6%

quarterly1.7%

Causeway Coast & Glensall properties£545p/m

annual2.7%

quarterly0.3%

Derry City & Strabaneall properties£578p/m

annual2.5%

quarterly1.0%

Ards & North Downall properties£650p/m

annual2.2%

quarterly1.0%

Lisburn & Castlereaghall properties£667p/m

annual3.1%

quarterly0.8%

Newry, Mourne & Downall properties£566p/m

annual2.1%

quarterly0.6%

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon

all properties£525p/m

annual1.2%

quarterly0.2%

Mid Ulsterall properties£519p/m

annual2.4%

quarterly0.3%

Fermanagh & Omaghall properties£512p/m

annual5.3%

quarterly1.1%

All properties

£664p/m

Annualprice growth

Quarterlyprice growth

1.5% 4.7%

Northern Ireland

Jordan Buchanan

[email protected]

@jbuchanan0707

PropertyPal Chief Economist

Follow us online

www.propertypal.com

@PropertyPal

PropertyPal

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Methodology: The price and rental statistics are based on arithmetic averages of newly listed properties based on advertised asking price/rents in each calendar month. The price and rental indices produced are weighted to reflect the market share of each property type. The data has been cleansed to remove outliers and anomalies. This report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology.

housing market trends - propertypal.comn.ireland prices: q4 2020 “ the housing market ended the...

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