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Housing market intelligence you can count on
Canada Mortgage and Housing CorporationHousing Market Outlook Third Quarter 2012
October 27, 2012
Mathieu LabergeDeputy Chief Economist
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Summary of the presentation
Drivers of housing demand
Economic assumptions Despite global uncertainty, Canada’s economic fundamentals
remain positive.
Interest rate outlook Interest rates remain near historical lows.
Housing Market Outlook
Existing home market The resale market, along with resale prices, is expected to
remain stable and most local markets will see balanced conditions.
New home market The new home market is expected to moderate throughout
the remainder of 2012 and in 2013.
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Housing and economic outlook for 2012
Forecast High Low
Total Housing Starts 207,200 217,000 196,800
Singles 83,500 87,700 78,900
Multiples 123,700 129,300 117,900
MLS® Sales 466,600 485,200 442,300
MLS® Price $368,000 $378,400
$351,300
5-Year Mortgage Rate 5.26% 5.40% 5.10%
GDP Growth Rate 2.1% 2.6% 1.9%
Employment Growth 1.3% 1.7% 1.0%
Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.1% 7.5%
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Stability is expected in MLS® sales in 2012
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, (F) Forecast by CMHC
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,00020
07Q
1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3(
F)
2013
Q1(
F)
2013
Q3(
F)
MLS sales,number of units
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Renovation spending growth to moderate in 2012
Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC
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Renovation spending growth to moderate in 2012
Renovation Expenditure Breakdown (millions of dollars and annual percentage change)
Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC
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Renovation spending growth to moderate in 2012
Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC
Total Renovation Expenditure per province(millions of dollars and annual percentage change)
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Thank You!!Contact Information:
Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist, CMHC(613) 742-5342