household projections the 2016-based household projections ...€¦ · household projections in the...

Endnotes/Contacts

HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS SEPTEMBER 2018

to make an uplift to the figure so that increased supply reduces the upward pressure on house prices.

However, Government is clear that the standard method local housing need figure is a minimum; authorities may submit higher numbers on the basis of, for example, economic growth, regeneration, infrastructure investment or affordable housing.

Moreover, for reasons we explain in this publication, the Government is already proposing to consult on changes to the methodology to one consistent with achieving 300,000 homes per annum. These latest projections may prove less important to housing need than previous iterations.

The 2016-based Household Projections for England

Over the past two years Government has proposed significant changes to the way housing needs are assessed. The previous practice guidance on housing needs – which often resulted in lengthy debates and delays in the plan-making process – is gone, replaced with a much simpler ‘standard method’. Termed ‘local housing need’ in the 2018 NPPF, it takes the household projections as a starting point and applies a percentage uplift, depending on the scale of affordability pressures in an area. This means that:

1. the level of household growth in the projections is even more important given

these are the unambiguous basis of local housing need. They should only be departed from in exceptional circumstances which are to be tested through local plan examinations;

2. any local authority with an affordability ratio greater than 4.0 will be required

On 20th September 2018, ONS published the 2016-based Household Projections. This is ONS’s first set of projections, having taken over responsibility from MHCLG in 2017. ONS project average household growth nationally of 159,000 per annum 2016-41 (165,000 over the ten year period 2018-28), compared to 210,000 per annum 2014-39 (218,000 over the ten years 2018–28). These projections form the current basis for estimating housing needs under the current ‘standard method’, but further changes are afoot.

This guide has been produced by Lichfields to help you navigate the new household projections. Click on an area of England for the headlines, including:

• Difference in projected household growth (by authority and housing market area) between the 2014-based and 2016-based projections

• Possible standard method figure• How this compares to average rates of

new housing over the past three years.

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Click here to view overall England

North East

Yorkshire and the Humber

Lincolnshire andPeterborough

East Anglia - Central and North

Hertfordshire and Essex

London

Kent

Sussex

Surrey

Hampshire

Thames Valley

Cornwall, Devon and Dorset

Bristol, Gloucestershire,Wiltshire and Somerset

West Midlands (outside Birmingham and Coventry)

Birmingham and Coventry

Leicestershire and Northamptonshire

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

Cheshire, Greater Manchester and Merseyside

Cumbria and Lancashire

Endnotes/Contacts

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Why is Government already planning to revise the standard method?

Further, the ONS has changed the methodology for assessing household formation rates (to convert population into households) from that used in previous projections. It is thus important for Government to ensure that its guidance on housing need is calibrated to adjust for any changes in the underlying data inputs on which it relies.

Household projections have fluctuated over a number of years, but there is a broad consensus that, over the long term, there is a need for in the order of 300,000 homes per annum to improve relative housing affordability. Achieving this level of supply by the mid-2020s is now the Government’s stated ambition.

When the standard method was published for consultation in September 2017, it yielded a national total (for England) of 266,000 homes per annum (2016-26) as the minimum estimate of need. This represented around a 20% uplift on the-then household projection growth of 222,000 households over the 10-year period. To reach 300,000, authorities across the country then collectively needed to plan for 34,000 homes per annum on top of the minimum figure. Ambitious, when one factors in that some areas (e.g. London) were unlikely to hit their minimum figures, but arguably the 300,000 was an achievable goal.

The introduction of a standard method for assessing housing needs was welcomed by many. Rather than having plan making dominated by debates over the robustness of housing need estimates in Strategic Housing Market Assessments, we can - in Government’s own words - focus on ‘planning for the right homes in the right places’. However, just a year since the standard method was first published, Government is already planning to consult on changes to it. Why?

Household projections have been a core input to assessing housing need since at least 1977, when the Housing Services Advisory Group of the old Department of the Environment advocated what it called the total stock/household method. The standard method combines these projections with a second input (an uplift based on the affordability ratio). For any method to have credibility as a measure of need, we need to be confident its inputs and/or the way they are used remain fit for purpose.

Of course, ONS does not produce population and household projections specifically for the purposes of planning, and they do not in fact purport to be a measure of housing need. They are simply projections of past trends and are not produced with a particular housing policy outcome in mind.

However, if the new projections are used as the basis of the standard method they yield just 214,000 nationally, as shown in Figure 1. Councils would need to be electing to plan more for an extra 86,000 homes per annum, on top of the standard method figure, and given some areas might not meet their need, the reality is an even bigger uplift.

350,000

300,000

100,000

50,000

0

250,000

200,000

150,000

Hom

es p

er y

ear

Government ambition Standard Method (Sep 2017) Standard Method (Sep 2018)

Source: Lichfields analysis

Figure 1: Homes per year generated by standard method – September 2017 and September 2018

300,000

Additional homes to reach 300,000

Additional homes to reach 300,000

Affordability uplift, 266,000

Affordability uplift, 214,000

Household Projections

222,000

Household Projections

165,000

To read more about why the new projections are so different.

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Are the projections still fit for purpose in assessing local housing need?

formation rates which differs to that previously used by DCLG. ONS now uses just two historic points – 2001 and 2011 – to projecting headship rates up to 2021, after which it holds rates constant (i.e. a ‘floor’ based on 2021 rates). Previously, trends going back to 1971 were used.

By using such a short period (2001-11) the projections inherently ‘bake in’ the implications of a period that saw a dramatic fall in housebuilding to its lowest levels in modern history and a rise in affordability problems, a substantial increase in concealed families, and an increasing number of adults living at home. In that sense they have an endogenous circularity.

ONS’s remit is to produce demographic projections based on past trends –its approach is not inherently wrong from a statistician or demographer’s perspective, but they now project forward trends that Government policy is explicitly seeking to reverse, raising questions as to whether they are fit for purpose for planning for housing need. Perhaps the best examples of the concern is that the projections show minimal or negative figures for Oxford and Cambridge over the ten-year period used in the standard method, which might imply no need for any new housing in two locations with acute housing problems. There is also an inconsistency in how communal establishments such as care homes are treated (excluded from the projections but included within the housing need figure).

Population Projections

In May 2018 ONS published the 2016-based Sub-National Population Projections (SNPPs)– these are the basis for the household projections. Within this, ONS has changed some of its underlying assumptions about births, deaths and migration. In short, it now assumes lower birth rates, higher death rates and lower international migration than previously. This means there are now projected to be around 1.5 million fewer people in England by 2036 in the new projections compared to the previous projections, as shown in Figure 2.

Of course, not all of this population change will affect household growth – for example a decrease in the birth rate will not impact household projections until 20+ years’ time. However, the increase in death rates amongst older people and lower migration will affect household projections in the short and long term.

International migration trends are projected to fall, with the recent peaks of net in-migration expected to fall to a long term average (from mid-2023) of +152,000 each year, compared with +170,200 in the 2014-based projections.

Household Formation Rates

In addition to lower underlying population projections, ONS has adopted a new methodology for projecting household

ONS is clear: “Household projections show the number of households there would be in England in the future if a set of assumptions …were realised in practice. The assumptions used in household projections for England …are based on past demographic trends in the population and rates of household formation”. This means that events from the past can dramatically impact on the projections, and if those events persist, trends will be ‘baked in’ to the projections.

64,000,000

62,000,000

60,000,000

58,000,000

56,000,000

54,000,000

52,000,000

50,000,000

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

- Eng

land

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

20302031

20322033

20342035

2036

62,400,000

60,900,000

Long term average – 170,000

2014-based projection 2016-based projection

The problem was already on the Government’s radar. Back in July it indicated it will consult on changes to the standard methodology to address the fact the projections are not consistent with achieving 300,000 homes per annum. At the time of writing we await the new proposals; in the meantime, those involved in planning would be unwise to get too excited about the 2016-based figures as they stand.

What next?

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Figure 2: Projected population – England – 2014-based and 2016-based projections

Source: Lichfields analysis


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England

*May not sum due to rounding.

Annual household growth - 2016-26

(2014-based)


(2016-based)Change Potential standard

method figure*

Average net completions

2014/15-2016/17

Birmingham and Coventry 14,100 10,900 -3,200 12,400 11,400

Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Somerset 11,800 10,900 -900 14,200 13,500


16,100 12,100 -4,000 13,600 15,400

Cornwall, Devon and Dorset 9,400 7,900 -1,500 10,500 10,100

Cumbria and Lancashire 3,300 2,100 -1,200 2,300 5,500

East Anglia - Central and North 12,700 10,200 -2,500 13,300 12,000

Hampshire 7,000 5,500 -1,500 7,300 7,000

Hertfordshire and Essex 13,700 11,300 -2,400 15,700 9,400

Kent 9,200 7,800 -1,400 10,600 6,800

Leicestershire and Northamptonshire 7,400 6,500 -900 7,900 8,500

Lincolnshire and Peterborough 3,500 3,000 -500 4,800 3,800

London 58,600 34,800 -23,800 50,900 32,300

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire 6,800 5,600 -1,200 6,400 6,400

North East 6,200 3,900 -2,300 4,200 8,600

Surrey 4,500 2,900 -1,600 4,000 2,800

Sussex 8,200 7,000 -1,200 9,100 5,900

Thames Valley 9,400 7,200 -2,200 9,900 10,700


4,800 4,400 -400 5,400 6,700

Yorkshire and The Humber 15,100 11,000 -4,100 12,300 15,700

England 221,800 165,000 -56,800 214,000 192,500

Aver

age

Hou

seho

ld S

ize

- Eng

land

Past and Projected Average Household Size

Historic (current)

2012-based

2008-based

2014-based

2016-based

Historic (revised)

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

1991

1993

1995

1999

1997

2001

2003

2007

2005

2009

2011

2013

2015

2019

2017

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2.0



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(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Birmingham and Black Country 10,049 7,465 -2,584 8,492 7,353

Cannock Chase 262 182 -81 207 207

East Staffordshire 386 290 -95 332 449

Lichfield 275 211 -64 270 234

Tamworth 135 95 -41 112 96

Birmingham 4,431 2,953 -1,477 3,247 2133

Dudley 537 463 -74 523 610

Sandwell 1,321 920 -400 1,001 786

Solihull 599 550 -49 680 647

Walsall 811 648 -163 727 710

Wolverhampton 675 517 -158 563 606

Bromsgrove 261 297 35 412 329

Redditch 153 117 -36 142 233

Wyre Forest 204 223 19 276 313

Coventry-Warwickshire 4,024 3,416 -608 3,938 4,078

North Warwickshire 144 150 6 179 245

Nuneaton and Bedworth 368 329 -40 385 405

Rugby 447 350 -97 410 449

Stratford-on-Avon 443 305 -137 406 995

Warwick 467 269 -199 358 770

Coventry 2,155 2,014 -141 2,201 1215

Birmingham and Coventry

CoventryRugbyBromsgrove

*Based on the standard method as per the current Planning Practice Guidance (September 2018). This is subject to change. See Endnotes for further information.

Fastest growing areas

TamworthRedditchDudley

Slowest growing areas

Projected rate of household growth 2018-28 (2016-based) 6.5%Annual rate of household growth 2018-28 (2016-based) 0.7%Average Household Size in 2016 2.47Average Household Size in 2041 2.39Homes under standard method (potential, 2018- 28 total) 124,295Homes under standard method (potential, 2018-28 annual) 12,430

1

2

Housing Market Areas1.

2.

Birmingham andBlack CountryCoventry-Warwickshire

The GBSLEP area is projected to see a decline in local housing needs, to 8,500 dpa based on the standard method, whilst Coventry-Warwickshire is expected to reduce to 3,900 dpa. As always in this part of the West Midlands, Birmingham City’s needs are key to understanding wider housing requirements; for Birmingham alone the latest projections are almost 33,000 lower over the next 25 years compared to the previous projections, a fall of 30%. This would result in a LHN figure of 3,250 dpa for Birmingham based on the standard method, which is still higher than the adopted Local Plan figure of 2,555 dpa. Unmet needs will still need to be addressed elsewhere in the HMA.

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Bristol, Gloucestershire,Wiltshire and Somerset


5

4

3

6

2

1

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.4.5.6.

BathCheltenham-GloucesterRural GloucestershireSomersetSwindon-WiltshireWider Bristol

TewkesburySedgemoorNorth Somerset


West SomersetCheltenhamBath and North East Somerset


The latest household projections anticipate an 8.4% increase in the number of households in this sub-region between 2018 and 2028. The new projections equate to a housing need of 14,200 dpa over the next 10 years under the current standard methodology. This is lower than that based on the 2014-SNHP, however, across the sub-region the latest housing need figures suggest a level of growth slightly higher than that planned for in adopted Local Plans.



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Bath and North East Somerset 445 504 58 727 770

Wider Bristol 4,104 3,684 -420 4,762 3,681

Bristol 1,917 1,602 -315 2,102 1662

North Somerset 1,026 963 -63 1,263 698

South Gloucestershire 1,161 1,119 -42 1,397 1320

Swindon-Wiltshire 2,541 2,432 -109 3,156 3,529

Swindon 884 666 -218 791 1276

Wiltshire 1,657 1,765 109 2,365 2253

Cheltenham-Gloucester 1,468 1,154 -314 1,403 1,459

Cheltenham 412 239 -173 313 327

Tewkesbury 477 430 -47 536 642

Gloucester 579 485 -94 554 490

Rural Gloucestershire 1,096 1,057 -39 1,468 1,366

Cotswold 301 294 -7 477 605

Forest of Dean 293 300 6 388 307

Stroud 502 464 -39 603 453

Somerset 2,189 2,057 -131 2,659 2,694

Mendip 444 434 -10 588 500

Sedgemoor 591 543 -48 709 522

South Somerset 589 500 -89 630 672

Taunton Deane 498 510 12 641 870

West Somerset 68 70 2 91 129




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SalfordManchesterTrafford


West LancashireSeftonWirral


4

23

1

5

1

3.4.

Cheshire West and ChesterGreater Manchester

5. Mid MerseyHousing Market Areas1.2.

Central LiverpoolCheshire East

Recent delays to the GMSF have ensured that these latest projections have become keenly anticipated, with the current GMSF housing target of 227,200 requiring significant levels of Green Belt release. The latest household growth figures are 26% lower than their predecessors over the next 25 years, which could suggest a LHN figure of 7,700 dpa annually. This is a massive 73,600 dwellings below the current figure in the 2016 version of the GMSF. Manchester City’s figure alone would decline by almost a thousand homes annually. Whilst there may be pressure from some GM authorities to pursue this lower figure, such an approach could risk severely harming the economic prospects of the Northern Powerhouse.




(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Central Liverpool 3,375 2,602 -773 2,793 3,847

West Lancashire 186 119 -67 137 330

Knowsley 270 220 -50 227 434

Liverpool 1,633 1,473 -160 1,529 2,338

Sefton 563 355 -208 411 290

Wirral 724 436 -288 488 454

Cheshire East 944 825 -119 1,009 1,525

Cheshire West and Chester 570 644 74 773 1,787

Greater Manchester 9,636 6,806 -2,830 7,681 6,498

Bolton 750 488 -262 526 473

Bury 534 326 -208 378 415

Manchester 2,477 1,629 -848 1,767 1,478

Oldham 665 539 -126 591 360

Rochdale 474 457 -16 504 312

Salford 1,299 984 -315 1,084 1,518

Stockport 900 670 -230 819 471

Tameside 592 394 -198 432 452

Trafford 1,017 679 -338 889 357

Wigan 928 640 -288 693 662

Mid Mersey 1,551 1,188 -363 1,324 1,743

Halton 273 225 -48 236 587

Warrington 810 614 -196 705 591

St Helens 468 349 -120 383 565




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Cornwall, Devon & Dorset

6

4

5

3

12


Bournemouth-PooleChristchurch and East DorsetDorchester-WeymouthExeterNorth DevonPlymouth

Average Household Size in 2016 2.26Average Household Size in 2041 2.15

Homes under standard method (potential, 2018- 28 total) 105,311Homes under standard method (potential, 2018-28 annual) 10,531

Projected rate of household growth 2018-28 (2016-based) 7.2%Annual rate of household growth 2018-28 (2016-based) 0.7%

East DevonTeignbridgeTorridge


PlymouthNorth DevonPoole


The latest household projections anticipate a 7.2% increase in the number of households in Cornwall, Devon and Dorset between 2018 and 2028. This translates to a housing need figure of 10,500dpa under the standard methodology; 16% lower than that based on the previous set of household projections. The most significant reductions are expected in Bournemouth and Poole and Plymouth (c. -40%), whilst an increased level of housing need is expected in East Devon (+11%) and Teignbridge (+4%). Across this sub-region area, the latest standard methodology figures indicate a need that slightly lower than existing requirements contained within adopted Local Plans, albeit that there are some significant variations between individual local authorities.



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Bournemouth-Poole 2,109 1,382 -727 1,837 1,487

Bournemouth 1,133 701 -431 906 756

Poole 587 338 -249 465 421

North Dorset 271 229 -42 302 180

Purbeck 118 114 -4 164 129

Christchurch and East Dorset 523 437 -87 611 319

Christchurch 228 183 -45 256 152

East Dorset 295 254 -41 355 166

Dorchester-Weymouth 569 541 -28 757 613

West Dorset 391 353 -37 495 439

Weymouth and Portland 178 188 10 263 174

Exeter 2,443 2,432 -11 3,232 2,915

Torbay 466 430 -36 528 344

East Devon 630 698 68 953 947

Exeter 513 492 -21 629 607

Mid Devon 283 239 -44 306 336

Teignbridge 551 573 22 815 681

North Devon 554 467 -87 633 762

North Devon 230 178 -52 244 359

Torridge 324 289 -35 388 402

Plymouth 3,237 2,645 -592 3,461 4,042

Cornwall 2,199 1,924 -275 2,520 2,791

Plymouth 567 323 -244 364 785

South Hams 236 233 -3 349 310

West Devon 235 165 -70 228 155




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Cumbria and Lancashire

ChorleyFyldeRibble Valley



CopelandBarrow-in-FurnessBlackpool


8

1

5

13

7

9

6

11

10

4

3

2

12

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.

10.11.12.13.

AllerdaleBarrow-in-FurnessBlackburn and HyndburnBurnley-PendleCarlisleCentral LancashireCopelandEdenFylde CoastLancasterRibble ValleyRossendaleSouthLakeland

Cumbria has some of the lowest household growth rates of any sub-region in England, with an increase of just 2,500 households projected over the next 25 years. Based on the new projections, both Copeland and Barrow-in-Furness would have a negative LHN whilst for Cumbria as a whole the LHN would be just 220 dpa despite some areas being amongst the least affordable in Northern England. For Lancashire the picture is more positive, with the standard method indicating a need for 2,100 dpa over the next 25 years. Bizarrely, the largest City in Lancashire, Preston, has an LHN of just 20 dpa, which demonstrates that economic growth aspirations will need to be factored into the equation.



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Allerdale 113 92 -21 106 311

Barrow-in-Furness -62 -85 -23 -118 78

Blackburn and Hyndburn 211 128 -83 131 281

Blackburn with Darwen 152 97 -55 99 150

Hyndburn 60 31 -28 31 132

Burnley-Pendle 235 148 -87 148 270

Burnley 70 62 -8 62 144

Pendle 165 87 -78 87 126

Carlisle 196 93 -103 100 487

Central Lancashire 955 706 -249 821 1,598

Chorley 541 525 -16 618 615

Preston 214 19 -195 20 601

South Ribble 199 161 -38 183 381

Copeland 32 -82 -114 -82 137

Eden 86 70 -16 85 196

Fylde Coast 629 453 -176 522 747

Blackpool 87 -54 -141 -54 67

Fylde 267 267 0 296 322

Wyre 275 240 -35 281 358

Lancaster 376 120 -256 131 509

Ribble Valley 144 153 9 177 345

Rossendale 187 162 -25 187 182

South Lakeland 160 93 -66 126 334




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East Anglia - Central and North

2

3

5

6

9

7

1

8

4

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.4.5.6.7.

8.9.

BedfordCambridgeshireCentral NorfolkGreat YarmouthIpswichKing's LynnLuton and CentralBedfordshireWaveneyWest Suffolk

Central BedfordshireBedford South Norfolk


CambridgeGreat YarmouthNorwich


The new projections show reductions from the 2014-based figures in almost every Housing Market Area and in Cambridge it produces a negative figure - an output that raises an emblematic concern about the use of these new figures as the basis of housing need. Overall in Cambridgeshire, the standard methodology figure would mean a lower level of housing growth than recent rates of housing completions, which sits at odds with the NIC report for the corridor which is seeking to boost growth above past rates to support economic growth. In Bedford, the new projections give a standard method figure of 1,185 which is 215 above that in its recently published Local Plan, perhaps explaining its haste to submit before the January 2019 NPPF transition period.




(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Bedford 998 889 -109 1,185 1,016

Cambridgeshire 2,955 1,803 -1,152 2,404 2,819

Cambridge 416 -5 -421 -5 926

East Cambridgeshire 446 318 -128 434 192

Fenland 440 343 -97 410 429

Huntingdonshire 798 604 -195 783 577

South Cambridgeshire 855 543 -312 781 695

Central Norfolk 2,589 2,267 -321 2,963 3,083

Breckland 539 579 40 770 634

Broadland 398 332 -66 451 635

North Norfolk 398 324 -74 438 475

Norwich 527 345 -182 409 353

South Norfolk 726 687 -40 896 986

Great Yarmouth 314 213 -101 242 204

Ipswich 1,524 1,603 78 2,106 1,448

Babergh 302 324 23 455 185

Ipswich 397 408 12 479 407

Mid Suffolk 437 426 -12 590 342

Suffolk Coastal 389 445 56 582 514

King's Lynn and West Norfolk 443 377 -65 469 395

Luton and Central Bedfordshire 2,998 2,241 -757 2,875 2,178

Central Bedfordshire 1,827 1,589 -238 2,224 1,640

Luton 1,171 652 -519 651 537

Waveney 296 318 22 392 178

West Suffolk 625 478 -147 640 647

Forest Heath 291 217 -74 279 232

St Edmundsbury 334 261 -73 361 416






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Hampshire

Test ValleyWinchesterGosport


RushmoorSurrey HeathSouthampton


The new projections show lower levels of household growth across all of the housing market areas in Hampshire, but if applied through the standard methodology would see – overall – a slightly higher level of housing need (7311 dpa) than recent average net completions (6,956). But this masks variations. The eastern part of PUSH area sees a standard method figure that is higher than recent completions, whereas in the western half it is below. In Hart, Surrey Heath and Rushmoor, the standard need figure based on the projections would be markedly below what has been built in recent years, reflecting that rates of development in Hart were low in the years up to 2016, before seeing an uptick off the back of completions.


6

5

1

2

4

3


Basingstoke and DeaneEast HampshireHart, Rushmoor and Surrey HeathIsle of WightPUSH EastPUSH West



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Basingstoke and Deane 771 545 -226 732 483

East Hampshire 406 354 -53 539 479

Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath 680 493 -187 710 1,031

Hart 209 212 3 296 557

Rushmoor 220 114 -106 152 279

Surrey Heath 251 167 -84 261 196

Isle of Wight 525 452 -73 571 415

PUSH East 2,186 1,876 -310 2,371 1,861

Portsmouth 724 499 -225 595 411

Fareham 401 350 -50 479 336

Gosport 270 281 11 238 124

Havant 355 349 -6 462 575

Winchester 438 397 -40 597 416

PUSH West 2,461 1,814 -647 2,388 2,687

Southampton 821 532 -289 618 1,150

Eastleigh 538 393 -145 532 379

New Forest 690 476 -213 667 231

Test Valley 413 413 -1 572 926




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Hertfordshire and Essex

4

9

5

7

3

6

1

82

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.4.5.

BrentwoodBroxbourneMaldonNorth EssexSouth West Herts

6.7.8.9.

Stevenage and North HertsThames Gateway South EssexWelwyn HatfieldWest Essex and East Herts

UttlesfordColchesterThurrock


Castle PointHarlowSt Albans


The new projections show a reduction across the main Housing Market Areas in a region that is subject to extensive Green Belt constraint and where the North Essex Garden Communities plans faced marked difficulties. Over the past three years, annual net completions were 9,384 dwellings, well below previous (13,668 pa) and the latest (11,313 pa) rates of household growth. Under the current standard method, c.15,700 homes would be required per year; a 50% increase on past rates. The new projections also imply (for South Essex alongside north Kent, and east London) that the current standard method will not match the vision of the Thames Estuary Growth commission who were seeking 31,000 homes per annum across that area.




(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Brentwood 325 245 -80 343 140

Broxbourne 400 293 -107 410 203

Maldon 215 222 7 315 191

North Essex 2,785 2,714 71 3,652 2,530

Braintree 649 507 -142 681 408

Chelmsford 686 556 -131 812 873

Colchester 846 931 85 1,216 859

Tendring 604 720 117 943 390

South West Herts 2,929 2,085 -844 2,919 1,825

Dacorum 750 595 -155 833 588

Hertsmere 505 317 -188 444 394

St Albans 652 428 -225 599 350

Three Rivers 436 355 -81 497 215

Watford 586 390 -196 547 279

Stevenage and North Herts 1,076 789 -287 1,057 683

North Hertfordshire 711 511 -200 716 353

Stevenage 365 278 -87 341 330

Thames Gateway South Essex 2,979 2,601 -378 3,616 1,820

Southend-on-Sea 847 654 -193 909 296

Thurrock 853 743 -110 1,021 541

Basildon 776 708 -68 991 635

Castle Point 244 228 -16 320 146

Rochford 259 268 9 375 202

Welwyn Hatfield 626 529 -98 740 327

West Essex and East Herts 2,333 1,835 -498 2,660 1,665

Epping Forest 659 472 -187 660 215

Harlow 351 226 -125 298 256

Uttlesford 529 452 -77 633 581

East Hertfordshire 794 685 -109 1,069 612






@LichfieldsTT



Kent

1 2

4

3

Housing Market Areas1.

2.3.4.

Ashford, Maidstone,Tonbridge & MallingEast KentNorth KentSevenoaks-TunbridgeWells

DartfordSwaleAshford


Tunbridge WellsSevenoaksDover


Kent sees a fall across all Housing Market Areas compared to the 2014-based projections, with household growth of 7,800 per annum over the next ten years. However, this base of household growth is markedly above the 6,800 net housing completions over the past three years, and the current standard method implies housing need figures of 10,600 per annum, with the biggest gap between growth and completions in East and North Kent (Canterbury and Thanet, Medway and Swale in particular). As was the case with South Essex and East London, the Thames Estuary Growth Commission raises the aspiration for the level of future growth above current demographic-rates of change.







(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Ashford, Maidstone, Ton’ & M’g 2,275 1,926 -349 2,659 2,197

Ashford 764 657 -106 897 708

Maidstone 898 765 -133 1,057 749

Tonbridge and Malling 614 503 -110 705 740

East Kent 2,588 2,437 -151 3,354 1,660

Canterbury 776 747 -28 1,076 349

Dover 479 427 -52 533 505

Shepway 545 498 -47 676 432

Thanet 788 764 -24 1,070 374

North Kent 3,297 2,753 -544 3,614 2,218

Medway 1,352 1,035 -317 1,310 561

Dartford 604 573 -31 787 899

Gravesham 519 367 -152 488 197

Swale 822 777 -45 1,029 561

Sevenoaks-Tunbridge Wells 993 695 -298 973 724

Sevenoaks 498 361 -137 506 314

Tunbridge Wells 494 334 -160 467 410



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Leicestershire and Northamptonshire


CorbyHarboroughEast Northamptonshire


Oadby and WigstonMelton Leicester


1

3

2

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.

LeicestershireNorth NorthamptonshireWest Northamptonshire


(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Leicestershire 4,059 3,405 -654 4,110 4,958

Leicester 1,486 822 -665 924 1,284

Blaby 287 352 65 430 628

Charnwood 898 763 -135 920 819

Harborough 413 413 0 559 533

Hinckley and Bosworth 391 471 79 569 638

Melton 168 96 -72 118 122

North West Leicestershire 307 440 133 529 797

Oadby and Wigston 108 49 -59 61 136

North Northamptonshire 1,541 1,544 4 1,854 1,722

Corby 436 434 -1 497 378

East Northamptonshire 373 419 47 529 495

Kettering 451 438 -13 521 512

Wellingborough 282 253 -28 308 337

West Northamptonshire 1,778 1,552 -226 1,967 1,859

Daventry 280 307 27 424 508

Northampton 1,123 870 -252 1,052 855

South Northamptonshire 376 375 -1 491 496


Aver

age

hous

ehol

d si

ze

Historic 2008-based 2014-based 2016-based Historic (revised)

1991

1994

1997

2003

2000

2006

2009

2015

2012

2018

2021

2024

2027

2033

2030

2036

2039

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.0




@LichfieldsTT



Lincolnshire and PeterboroughAnnual household growth - 2016-26

(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Central Lincolnshire 978 879 -99 2,156 951

Lincoln 262 164 -98 180 143

North Kesteven 410 366 -43 445 468

West Lindsey 307 349 42 392 340

Peterborough 1,905 1,677 -227 2,072 2,199

Rutland 95 127 32 179 234

South Holland 350 297 -53 354 271

South Kesteven 619 593 -26 769 539

Peterborough 841 660 -180 769 1,154

Rest of Central Lincolnshire 569 486 -83 569 601

Boston 223 149 -74 178 213

East Lindsey 346 337 -9 391 387

2

3

1

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.

Central LincolnshirePeterboroughRest of CentralLincolnshire


South KestevenPeterboroughWest Lindsey


LincolnBostonEast Lindsey



Aver

age

hous

ehol

d si

ze


1991

1994

1997

2003

2000

2006

2009

2015

2012

2018

2021

2024

2027

2033

2030

2036

2039

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5




@LichfieldsTT




(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Greater London 58,572 34,805 -23,766 50,736 32,264

Barking and Dagenham 1,606 1,201 -405 1,682 614

Barnet 2,947 1,916 -1,031 2,683 1,527

Bexley 1,231 1,038 -193 1,453 481

Brent 2,039 790 -1,249 1,376 1,325

Bromley 1,831 1,518 -314 2,125 656

Camden 1,786 1,265 -520 1,568 871

City of London 73 -17 -90 -17 103

Croydon 2,502 1,412 -1,090 1,977 2,134

Ealing 1,737 568 -1,170 992 821

Enfield 2,378 1,396 -982 1,954 656

Greenwich 2,145 1,482 -663 2,306 1,749

Hackney 2,322 1,674 -648 2,343 1,093

Hammersmith and Fulham 700 183 -518 375 901

Haringey 2,080 1,204 -876 1,686 371

Harrow 1,400 524 -875 734 659

Havering 1,301 1,164 -137 1,629 699

Hillingdon 1,965 1,201 -763 1,682 673

Hounslow 1,936 810 -1,126 1,151 478

Islington 1,845 1,105 -741 1,770 733

Kensington and Chelsea 261 73 -187 73 574

Kingston upon Thames 1,091 736 -355 1,030 346

Lambeth 1,892 859 -1,033 1,430 1,298

Lewisham 2,272 1,584 -689 2,217 1,537

Merton 1,132 494 -638 692 456

Newham 2,743 1,426 -1,318 2,196 1,956

Redbridge 2,129 1,419 -710 1,987 355

Richmond upon Thames 1,221 731 -490 1,024 406

Southwark 2,206 1,270 -936 2,088 1,645

Sutton 1,267 755 -512 1,057 490

Tower Hamlets 3,565 2,448 -1,117 3,316 2,712

Waltham Forest 1,726 1,014 -712 1,419 892

Wandsworth 1,479 627 -852 1,242 2,053

Westminster 1,763 937 -826 1,495 1,000

London

The latest household projections anticipate formation of c.35,000 households per annum in London between 2018 and 2028. This translates to a housing need figure of c.51,000dpa under the standard methodology when the caps are applied; a 35% reduction than the original standard methodology calculation based on the previous set of household projections of c.78,000. The emerging London Plan assessed its objectively assessed housing needs as c.66,000 dpa from 2019/20 to 2028/29 and is planning to deliver c.65,000 dpa over this period. Therefore, housing need figure under the standard methodology utilising the latest household projections is 22% lower than that being planned for in the emerging London Plan.


1

Housing Market Areas1. Greater London


Tower HamletsBarking and DagenhamHackney


City of LondonKensington and ChelseaHammersmith and Fulham





@LichfieldsTT



North East


5

2

4

6

1

3


DarlingtonDurhamHartlepoolMiddlesbroughNorthumberlandTyne and Wear

As expected the 2016-based household projections project lower growth across the North East than the 2014-based projections. Middlesbrough (77%), Sunderland (56%) and Newcastle (47%) have experienced the most significant reductions in projected future levels of household growth.

In terms of the standard methodology, the projections result in a 37% reduction using the Government’s standard methodology across the NE LEP and a 38% reduction across the Tees Valley LEP over a 10 year period. This re-emphasises the need for LPAs to pursue a level of growth above the standard methodology to ensure that an adequate housing supply does not constrain the North East’s economic ambition.



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Darlington 168 113 -55 122 321

Durham 1,322 1,003 -319 1,032 1,331

Hartlepool 206 109 -97 113 363

Middlesbrough 885 550 -334 598 1,575

Middlesbrough 251 58 -193 62 590

Redcar and Cleveland 132 127 -5 136 408

Stockton-on-Tees 502 365 -137 401 576

Northumberland 625 486 -138 558 1,323

Tyne and Wear 3,041 1,649 -1,391 1,808 3,691

Gateshead 440 268 -172 288 198

Newcastle upon Tyne 965 510 -455 557 1,581

North Tyneside 732 426 -306 485 614

South Tyneside 329 194 -134 214 422

Sunderland 575 251 -324 263 877

North TynesideStockton-on-TeesCounty Durham


MiddlesbroughSunderlandRedcar and Cleveland





@LichfieldsTT



Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire


1

63

52

4

3.4.

Derbyshire DalesHigh Peak

5.6.

Nottingham CoreNottingham Outer

Housing Market Areas1.2.

ChesterfieldDerby


(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Chesterfield 978 877 -101 993 1,146

Bolsover 227 235 8 258 291

Chesterfield 232 184 -48 203 173

North East Derbyshire 228 194 -34 234 337

Bassetlaw 292 265 -27 299 345

Derby 1,730 1,352 -379 1,495 1,592

Derby 868 537 -331 553 567

Amber Valley 369 341 -28 372 422

South Derbyshire 494 474 -20 570 603

Derbyshire Dales 177 156 -20 208 160

High Peak 237 208 -28 249 209

Nottingham Core 2,531 1,812 -719 2,073 2,061

Nottingham 973 543 -431 577 981

Erewash 367 301 -67 328 257

Broxtowe 322 243 -78 274 153

Gedling 412 345 -66 376 228

Rushcliffe 458 380 -78 519 442

Nottingham Outer 1,178 1,203 25 1,376 1,277

Ashfield 485 449 -35 492 509

Mansfield 255 300 44 338 293

Newark and Sherwood 438 454 16 546 475

South DerbyshireNewark and SherwoodAshfield


ChesterfieldNottinghamNorth East Derbyshire



Aver

age

hous

ehol

d si

ze


1991

1994

1997

2003

2000

2006

2009

2015

2012

2018

2021

2024

2027

2033

2030

2036

2039

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

1.9



@LichfieldsTT



Surrey

Surrey is an area where the Government’s standard methodology was most likely to create upward pressure on housing need, and in a location largely washed over by Green Belt. But here there is a 35% fall in the projections to an annual rate (2,900) that almost exactly matches the levels of housing development over the past three years (2,826). Nonetheless, the pressures of affordability are such that even from this reduced starting point, the housing need under the current standard method would require housebuilding to increase by 45% with increases required in every local authority.


4

1

2

3

Housing Market Areas1.2.3.4.

North East SurreyReigate-TandridgeRunnymede and SpelthorneWest Surrey



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

North East Surrey 1,165 849 -316 1,189 659

Elmbridge 437 359 -78 503 252

Epsom and Ewell 413 266 -148 372 222

Mole Valley 315 225 -90 314 185

Reigate-Tandridge 1,303 874 -429 1,109 715

Reigate and Banstead 841 542 -299 644 491

Tandridge 461 332 -129 465 225

Runnymede and Spelthorne 819 467 -353 653 536

Runnymede 398 247 -150 346 230

Spelthorne 422 219 -202 307 307

West Surrey 1,255 717 -538 1,084 915

Guildford 564 308 -256 431 363

Waverley 384 236 -149 390 288

Woking 307 174 -133 263 264

Tandridge Reigate and BansteadEpsom and Ewell


WokingWaverleySpelthorne





@LichfieldsTT



Sussex

1

2

4

3


Coastal West SussexNorth West SussexRother and HastingsWealden and Eastbourne

WealdenRotherArun


Brighton and HoveCrawley Hastings


Like neighbouring Surrey, Sussex is a constrained county that has a longstanding need to boost its housing supply. Recent rates of housebuilding have been 5,950 per annum, and even with a fall in the rate of household growth in the latest projections, the ONS still projects the number of households to increase by 7,000 over the next ten years. When applied through the current standard methodology, this indicates a housing need of almost 9,150 per annum, with the greatest pressure in the largely landlocked Coastal West Sussex, where recent completions have been 2,500 per annum, but housing need under the new projections would be well 4,224 per annum.




(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Coastal West Sussex 4,071 3,353 -718 4,224 2,499

Brighton and Hove 1,250 860 -390 924 540

Lewes 536 440 -96 483 256

Adur 294 246 -48 248 64

Arun 857 796 -61 1,207 712

Chichester 516 474 -42 609 535

Worthing 618 538 -80 753 392

North West Sussex 1,920 1,537 -383 2,336 2,245

Crawley 577 318 -260 415 456

Horsham 617 592 -25 954 954

Mid Sussex 726 627 -99 967 836

Rother and Hastings 809 810 ~ 749 438

Hastings 316 313 -3 280 201

Rother 493 496 3 469 238

Wealden and Eastbourne 1,392 1,333 -60 1,833 764

Eastbourne 502 480 -22 640 192

Wealden 890 852 -38 1,193 572






@LichfieldsTT



Thames Valley

The Thames Valley sees a marked reduction (of over 2,000 pa) in the projected rate of household growth in a region where there was already concern that demographic trends did not reflect housing pressures. In Oxfordshire, the latest projections take growth down to just 1,500 pa (and just 67 pa in Oxford City itself). Even with uplifts for affordability under the current standard method, the need figure is just over 2,000, almost 3,000 below the City Deal commitment of 5,000 homes pa, and below recent rates of housebuilding. The position is similar – although less acute – in Berkshire, with combined figures (including South Bucks) of 3,720 under the current standard methodology cf 4,280dpa in the published SHMA. In Buckinghamshire the new figures combined with the standard method would increase supply above recent SHMA estimates.


3

4

1

5

2


BuckinghamshireEastern BerkshireMilton KeynesOxfordshireWesternBerkshire



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Buckinghamshire 2,170 1,870 -301 2,638 2,280

Aylesbury Vale 1,071 1,153 82 1,614 1,312

Chiltern 226 201 -24 282 174

South Bucks 308 206 -102 289 264

Wycombe 566 309 -256 453 529

Eastern Berkshire 1,256 754 -502 1,042 1,161

Slough 700 415 -285 567 595

Windsor and Maidenhead 556 339 -217 475 567

Milton Keynes 1,500 1,243 -257 1,604 1,281

Milton Keynes 1,500 1,243 -257 1,604 1,281

Oxfordshire 2,459 1,556 -903 2,172 3,694

Cherwell 574 394 -180 536 1,158

Oxford 533 67 -466 101 321

South Oxfordshire 424 373 -52 556 639

Vale of White Horse 517 483 -34 632 1,189

West Oxfordshire 411 239 -172 347 387

Western Berkshire 1,989 1,733 -256 2,404 2,294

Bracknell Forest 509 386 -124 510 383

Reading 479 405 -74 511 701

West Berkshire 398 446 48 631 535

Wokingham 603 496 -107 752 675Aylesbury ValeMilton KeynesVale of White Horse


Oxford Wycombe West Oxfordshire





@LichfieldsTT





2

1

3

4


HerefordshireShropshireStoke-StaffordWorcestershire

WychavonTelford and WrekinMalvern Hills


Stoke-on-TrentStaffordshire MoorlandsStafford


Overall, the 11 WM authorities outside the Birmingham and Coventry LEP areas are projected to experience modest levels of growth over the next 10 years, of around 6%. The LHN standard methodology approach indicates that the annual average need could be 5,400. The combined LHN figure for Stoke on Trent and Newcastle under Lyme, of 780 dpa, is 44% lower than the Councils’ Preferred Option for Growth, of 1,390 dpa in their emerging Local Plan (February 2018). This latter figure was uplifted to help to deliver wider economic aspirations, flexibility and choice, factors which are not fully reflected in the LHN method.



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Herefordshire 685 531 -154 713 377

Shropshire 1,526 1,506 -20 1,853 2,648

Shropshire 1,033 989 -45 1,260 1,489

Telford and Wrekin 493 518 25 593 1,159

Stoke-Stafford 1,572 1,395 -177 1,567 2,058

Stoke-on-Trent 481 396 -84 407 569

Newcastle-under-Lyme 320 340 20 371 369

South Staffordshire 236 229 -7 282 246

Stafford 364 270 -94 325 705

Staffordshire Moorlands 172 160 -11 181 168

Worcestershire 997 1,001 4 1,240 1,650

Malvern Hills 279 248 -30 329 315

Worcester 336 252 -85 293 515

Wychavon 383 501 119 619 820




@LichfieldsTT



Yorkshire and The Humber


8

35

7

10

2

11

4

1

13

12

9

6

14

6.7.8.9.

10.

North East LincolnshireNorth LincolnshireNorth YorkshireRotherhamRyedale

11.12.13.14.

ScarboroughSelbySheffieldWakefield


CalderdaleDoncasterHull-East RidingKirkleesLeeds-Bradford

As expected the 2016-based household projections project lower growth across Yorkshire and the Humber than the 2014-based projections; a growth of 4.8% over 10 years compared to 6.6% in the previous projections. Richmondshire (-199%), North East Lincolnshire (-59%) and Bradford (-50%) have experienced the most significant reductions in projected future levels of household growth.

In terms of using the Government’s standard methodology, the projections result in a reduction for all LPAs in the region other than in; Craven, Ryedale and Barnsley. The greatest reductions to the standard methodology approach to assessing local needs are in; Kirklees, Bradford, Leeds, Sheffield and York.



(2014-based)



method figure*


2014/15-2016/17

Calderdale 788 533 -255 566 423

Doncaster 548 532 -17 572 1,001

Hull-East Riding 1,265 825 -441 931 1,562

East Riding of Yorkshire 857 607 -251 706 905

Kingston upon Hull 408 218 -190 226 657

Kirklees 1,548 1,015 -533 1,121 879

Leeds-Bradford 3,953 2,340 -1,613 2,585 3,602

Bradford 1,557 772 -786 827 1,176

Leeds 2,396 1,568 -827 1,758 2,426

North East Lincolnshire 222 92 -131 102 333

North Lincolnshire 406 364 -42 383 330

North Yorkshire 1,438 995 -443 1,318 1,529

York 844 442 -402 570 451

Craven 122 140 18 174 198

Hambleton 173 150 -23 202 404

Harrogate 287 274 -13 383 304

Richmondshire 12 -11 -23 -11 172

Rotherham 550 490 -60 524 608

Ryedale 143 178 35 231 276

Scarborough 144 125 -18 144 408

Selby 324 299 -24 351 526

Sheffield 2,815 2,311 -504 2,492 2,593

Barnsley 870 903 33 951 725

Sheffield 1,945 1,408 -537 1,541 1,867

Wakefield 946 921 -24 1,024 1,623

BarnsleySelbyRyedale


RichmondshireNorth East LincolnshireKingston upon Hull





Home Endnotes/Contacts


BristolAndrew Cockett [email protected] 403 1980

LeedsJustin Gartland [email protected] 397 1397

NewcastleHarvey Emms [email protected] 0191 261 5685

CardiffSimon Coop [email protected] 2043 5880

LondonMatthew Spry matthew.spry @lichfields.uk020 7837 4477

Thames ValleyDaniel Lampard [email protected] 334 1920

EdinburghNicola Woodward [email protected] 285 0670

ManchesterSimon Pemberton [email protected] 837 6130

ContactsSpeak to your local office or visit our website.

DisclaimerThis publication has been written in general terms and cannot be relied on to cover specific situations. We recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Lichfields accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication. Lichfields is the trading name of Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Limited. Registered in England, no.2778116. Registered office: 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2018. All rights reserved.

EndnotesGovernment is expected to consult on changes to the standard methodology imminently; therefore the standard method figures in this publication may well change in the near future.Calculations for the standard method are based on the 2016-based household projections for the 10 year period 2018-28. Data on adoption dates of Local Plans and their requirements has been taken from the Government spreadsheet published in September 2017 in the ‘Planning for the Right Homes in the Right Places consultation’ – Lichfields accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of that data. Areas with plans adopted since 2017 (including their requirement) have been updated by Lichfields. Affordability data is based on the 2017 median workplace affordability ratio published in ONS in March 2018. Caps do not take into account plans which are current undergoing examination and may be found sound before the transitional arrangements take effect nor plans which have/will be submitted before the 24th January 2019 deadline and subject to the current methodology for housing. The caps on these areas may change in the future once plans become adopted. Some areas have negative household growth, and therefore if the uplift were applied as per the standard method these numbers would reduce further. For the purposes of this analysis, areas with negative household growth do not have their percentage ‘uplift’ applied – the standard method figure is taken as the household growth figure. These authorities are: Barrow-in-Furness, Copeland, Blackpool, Richmondshire, Cambridge and City of London.Three areas contain joint spatial plans but do not provide a breakdown of housing target for each local authority within the joint area. These are Central Lincolnshire (comprising Lincoln, North Kesteven and West Lindsey), Christchurch and East Dorset (comprising the two respective authorities) and West Dorset, Weymouth and Portland (comprising the two respective authorities). For the purposes of calculating the standard method cap an assumption has been made about the distribution of the overall housing requirement between individual local authorities.Stevenage and East Hertfordshire Local Plans both are currently subject to holding directions, however as they have been found sound by Inspectors, for the purposes of this analysis their housing requirements have been treated as adopted. This could be subject to change.No affordability data for West Somerset is available. A proxy based on the average ratio of Mendip, Sedgemoor, South Somerset and Taunton Deane has been used.

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