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Hotels & Hospitality
Hotel Intelligence Paris 2013
With record performance results in 2011 and 2012, Paris has confirmed the strength and dynamism of its hotel market. 2013 is expected to witness a continued growth in Revenue Per Available Room, albeit at a slower rate due to the continued weakness in the global economy.
2 Hotel Intelligence: Paris
Authors
Market Snapshot Record foreign tourist arrivals in 2012 Paris is as a leading trade fair and congress destination Record number of passengers at Paris airports in 2012 A well balanced hotel mix from budget to luxury Limited new supply due to high barriers to entry Three consecutive years of record trading performance Positive trading expectations for 2013
Josef Filser Associate, EMEA [email protected]
Table of Contents
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Jones Lang LaSalle’s Hotels & Hospitality Group serves as the hospitality industry’s global leader in real estate services for luxury, upscale, select service and budget hotels; timeshare and fractional ownership properties; convention centers; mixed-use developments and other hospitality properties. The firm’s more than 265 dedicated hotel and hospitality experts partner with investors and owner/operators around the globe to support and shape investment strategies that deliver maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset. In the last five years, the team completed more transactions than any other hotels and hospitality real estate advisor in the world totaling nearly US$25 billion, while also completing approximately 4,000 advisory and valuation assignments. The group’s hotels and hospitality specialists pro-vide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research. For more news, videos and research from Jones Lang LaSalle’s Hotels & Hospitality Group, please visit: www.jll.com/hospitality
Marcus Linden Research Assistant, EMEA [email protected]
Gwenola Donet Director, France [email protected]
Bastien Buffat Analyst, France [email protected]
Hotel Intelligence: Paris 3
Market Snapshot
Tourism: Paris is the economic, cultural and administrative
capital of France, and one of the world’s most visited cities. The
French capital benefits from a diversified demand, well-balanced
between leisure and business, and between domestic and
foreign clientele. Over the last decade, Paris has witnessed
stable levels of tourism demand with visitation and overnight
stays showing an annual average growth rate (CAAG) of 1.1%
and 0.6% respectively.
Supply: As at January 2013, the graded hotel supply in Paris
comprised 1,475 hotels, offering a total of 78,382 rooms. The
market is well balanced in terms of room supply with 34% in the
upscale segment, 38% in the midscale segment and 28% in
budget/economy segment. Room supply in Paris in the past 10
years has grown by only +0.3% annually due to the scarcity of
land plots available for hotel development. Hotel supply is only
expected to increase marginally in the coming years with 3,900
bedrooms currently in the development pipeline. New hotels are
primarily positioned in the upscale segment.
Trading: Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in Paris
rebounded quickly after the downturn in 2009. Since then, hotels
have recorded positive growth in performance year-on-year with
occupancy levels at about 78%. RevPAR grew by 14% in 2011
and by another 8% in 2012 to €202, representing a 10-year
high. Overall, RevPAR has grown at about twice the level of
inflation over the past 8 years.
4 Hotel Intelligence: Paris
Record foreign tourist arrivals in 2012
Stable Tourism Demand since 2003
Paris is the economic, cultural and administrative capital of
France, and one of the most visited cities in the world. The
tourism industry is vital to its local economy and generates
around 373,000 jobs (as of 2010) or 13% of total employment
in central Paris.
During the last 10 years, tourism demand has not been
immune to wider global events such as the economic/financial
crisis of 2008 and 2009 which led to significant falls in both
visitation and overnight stays. Since 2010, however, tourism
demand has shown consistent growth despite a weaker
domestic market. Growth has been fuelled by growing arrivals
and overnight stays from foreign markets, particularly from
overseas.
Paris depends on foreign arrivals
The Paris tourism industry is largely dependent on foreign
demand which accounted for about 65% of total bed nights in
2012. The city’s two major international feeder markets are
the US and the UK respectively, averaging about 16% and
10% of international room night stays per year. Other major
foreign feeder markets are its neighbouring European
countries, Japan (4% of international room nights) and the
Middle East (4%). China, a key emerging market, currently
represents only 2% of international room nights although this
share is expected to increase in subsequent years.
In 2012, visitation increased from nearly all of the city’s major
international source markets except from Italy, Spain, Belgium
and the Netherlands. A strong growth in visitation was again
witnessed from the Middle East (+6.4%) and China (+15.4%).
Paris: Tourism Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ro
om
Nig
hts
('0
00s)
Arr
ival
s ('
000s
)
Visitor Arrivals Room Nights
Source: Observatoire Economique du Tourisme Parisien
Source: Observatoire Economique du Tourisme Parisien
Paris: Top Feeder Markets
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
USA
UK
Italy
Spain
Germany
Japan
Middle-East
China
Room Nights ('000s)
2011
2012
Paris: Tourism Demand
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAAG
2002-12
Visitor Arrivals (‘000s)
Domestic 5,841 5,840 6,445 6,386 6,734 6,642 6,665 6,511 7,065 7,188 6,994 1.8%
International 8,993 8,134 8,747 9,014 8,490 8,763 8,375 7,905 8,119 8,466 8,685 -0.3%
Total 14,834 13,974 15,192 15,400 15,224 15,405 15,040 14,416 15,184 15,654 15,679 0.6%
Growth p.a. 0.6% -5.8% 8.7% 1.4% -1.1% 1.2% -2.4% -4.1% 5.3% 3.1% 0.2%
Bed Nights (‘000s)
Domestic 10,540 10,483 11,053 11,152 12,023 12,287 12,358 12,164 13,281 13,596 12,973 2.1%
International 22,444 20,396 20,525 22,512 21,862 23,376 22,714 21,693 22,509 23,291 23,934 0.6%
Total 32,984 30,879 31,578 33,664 33,885 35,663 35,072 33,857 35,790 36,886 36,907 1.1%
Growth p.a. -0.7% -6.4% 2.3% 6.6% 0.7% 5.2% -1.7% -3.5% 5.7% 3.1% 0.1%
Source: Observatoire Economique du Tourisme Parisien
Hotel Intelligence: Paris 5
Paris is as a leading trade fair and
congress destination
In terms of foreign arrivals, Paris is to some extent affected by
exchange rate fluctuations. A weak Euro in 2012 certainly had
a positive impact on foreign visitation, particularly on tourist
arrivals from the US and the UK. We could anticipate a similar
trend in 2013/14.
The capital benefits from a well balanced mix between
leisure and corporate business
Paris benefits from a diversified client mix, attracting leisure,
corporate and trade fair/congress business. In 2011, business
demand, including the corporate and meetings, incentives,
conferences and exhibitions (MICE) sectors, represented
about 45% of total hotel room nights in Paris. This high ratio is
partially explained by the fact that the capital is home to the
largest office market in Europe with around 52 million sq. m. It
is the second largest in the world after New York.
The majority of tourists are leisure guests and attracted by the
capital’s cultural offerings such as its world famous museums
and monuments. This includes the Louvre Museum with
almost 9 million visitors per annum and the Eiffel tower with 7
million visitors per annum. In more recent years Euro Disney
has also been attracting more than 15 million visitors per
annum.
Similar positive results were reported by the Office du
Tourisme et des Congrès de Paris which recorded a total of
995 events in 2011, compared to 959 in 2010 and 931 in
2009.
Paris has the largest total provision of covered exhibition
space in Europe, with more than 680,000 sq. m. The city’s key
venues are:
Paris Expo in Porte de Versailles (226,000 sq. m.)
Palais des Congrès de Paris (32,000 sq. m.)
CNIT in La Défense (21,000 sq. m.)
Espace Champerret (9,100 sq. m.)
Espace Grande Arche (9,500 sq. m.)
Carrousel du Louvre (7,100 sq. m. downtown)
Le Bourget (80,000 sq. m.)
The Parc des Expositions in Villepinte (206,000 sq. m.) is currently under renovation.
The three leading trade fairs taking place regularly in Paris are
the International Air Show at Le Bourget (odd years), the Auto
Show at Porte de Versailles (even years) and Batimat, a
construction fair in Villepinte (annual).
Trade fair and congress demand in Paris has witnessed a
steady growth since the dip in 2009. According to the
International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA)
the number of events in Paris increased from 147 in 2010 to
174 in 2011. In its global ranking, the ICCA ranked Paris 2nd
place, after Vienna.
Source: ICCA
Paris: International Conference & Exhibition Demand
30
60
90
120
150
180
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nu
mb
er o
f E
ven
ts
6 Hotel Intelligence: Paris
A well balanced hotel mix from
budget to luxury
Record number of passengers at
Paris airports in 2012
The French capital benefits from excellent accessibility, both
nationally and internationally. Paris is at the heart of the
railway network, including the national high-speed trains
(TGV), as well as the international Thalys to Belgium/
Germany/Netherlands and the Eurostar to the UK. The city
also hosts the leading international airport in France.
Paris is served by two main airports, Roissy Charles de Gaulle
(CDG) and Orly. In terms of passenger numbers, Roissy CDG
was the second largest airport in Europe in 2011 with close to
61 million passengers, while Orly ranked eleventh with over
27 million passengers. Both airports benefit from their
proximity to Paris, being less than 25 kilometres from the city;
however, they suffer from poor public transport connections to
Paris. An additional express train from Gare de l’Est in Paris
to Roissy CDG is planned in order to improve the connection,
but it is still in the planning stage and no year of opening has
yet been announced.
While Roissy CDG has room for growth, traffic is limited at
Orly due to flight volume restrictions. Orly is also more
focused on domestic and European flights and short- to
medium-haul flights than Roissy CDG, which is the hub for
international long-haul flights.
Passenger volumes at both airports remained almost static in
2012, with a +0.9% increase compared to 2011. This was
mostly driven by international visitors (+1.6%) while domestic
arrivals decreased by −1.9%. This slight growth followed a
notable +5.7% increase in 2011, leading to a volume slightly
above the 2008 peak.
As at January 2013, the graded hotel supply in Paris
comprised 1,475 hotels with a total of 78,382 rooms. The
market is well balanced in terms of room supply with 33% in
the upscale segment, 38% in the midscale segment, and 28%
in the budget/economy category. The most luxurious hotels
are located in the 1st, 8th, 9th and 16th districts of Paris, with
the Right Bank home to the majority of these hotels. The Left
Bank is mainly composed of boutique hotels and/or small
independent properties.
Sources: ADP; Jones Lang LaSalle
Paris Airports: Passenger Arrivals
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pas
sen
ger
s ('0
00s)
Domestic International
The 5-star category was created in early 2009 as part of a
new star classification system. The creation of this new
category has not brought major changes to the hotel sector,
but has clarified classification for international travellers. A
‘Palace’ label was introduced in 2010 and today encompasses
five hotels in Paris out of a total of twelve in France.
The most significant openings in 2011 and 2012 were the
Mandarin Oriental and the W Opera, following the Shangri-La
and Royal Monceau, both in 2010.
Paris: Graded Hotel Supply (as at January 2013)
Grade Establishments Rooms % Share
4 & 5 Star 259 26,149 33.4%
3 star 627 30,113 38.4%
Other 589 22,120 28.2%
Total 1,475 78,382
Source: Insee, Jones Lang Lasalle
Hotel Intelligence: Paris 7
Limited new supply due to high barriers to entry
Paris remains a highly attractive city for hotel operators seeking
flagship properties in continental Europe. However, developing
a new hotel is not the easiest way to enter the Parisian market
due to the lack of available sites, high development costs and
the fact that there are relatively few hotels for sale on the
market. Consequently, graded hotel room supply in the French
capital grew at a very slow rate, showing a cumulated annual
average growth (CAAG) rate of only 0.3% between 2002 and
2012. The market therefore faces little oversupply risk which
has boosted prices for hotel acquisitions to peak levels.
New supply that has recently entered the Parisian hotel market
has generally been positioned in the luxury segment, often
considered as Palace hotels (average daily rate above €700).
Hotel development in Paris is expected to remain moderate
with 869 rooms planned for 2013 and about 1,500 rooms in
the pipeline for 2014, reflecting yearly growth rates of 1.1%
and 2.4% respectively. Nonetheless, the Palace segment is
expected to become more competitive in the medium term
with the opening and re-opening of another five properties by
2016. The budget segment is also set to increase and will
continue to grow at the ‘Portes de Paris’ (on the ring-road) and
in the inner suburbs.
Key development highlights will include the Mélia La Défense
that is expected to open in 2014. This hotel will be located in
the business district of La Défense and will offer 369 rooms.
Another notable opening will be the Peninsula in 2014, the
second largest Palace hotel in the city after the Four Seasons
George V. In 2016, LVMH is also planning to open the 100
room The Cheval Blanc. This new hotel will complete the
LVMH collection, following new hotels in Courchevel and the
Maldives in 2013 and Oman and Egypt in 2015.
Furthermore, the iconic Ritz and Hotel de Crillon Palace hotels
are closing for approximately 2 years to undergo a multi-
million-euro transformation. The Plaza Athénée and the
Shangri-La are also planned to be extended.
New brands entering the Parisian hotel market include: AC
Hotel by Marriott at Porte des Ternes (close to the Palais des
Congrès) in 2014, and Motel One at Porte Dorée (East) in
2015. At Charles de Gaulle airport, CitizenM and Garden Inn/
Hampton Inn will also be launched on to the French market.
f = forecast Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f
To
tal R
oo
ms
Developments Existing
Paris: Graded Hotel Supply
8 Hotel Intelligence: Paris
Paris: Hotel developments (as at March 2013)
Hotel Location Rooms Grade Due Date Operator
RECENTLY OPENED 2011 & 2012
Courtyard Paris Arcueil Arcueil 170 3 Feb-11 Marriott
Mandarin Oriental 1st arrondissement 150 5 June-11 Mandarin Oriental
Holiday Inn Grand Boulevard 9th arrondissement 118 3 June-11 InterContinental Hotel Group
Suite Novotel Issy les Moulineaux 128 4 Dec-11 Accor
Hôtel Crayon 1st arrondissement 27 4 2011 Independant
W Opéra 9th arrondissement 80 4 Feb-12 Starwood Hotels & Resorts
Courtyard Marriott Boulogne Boulogne Billancourt 115 3 March-12 Marriott
Total Rooms 2011 & 2012 673
NEW DEVELOPMENTS 2013
PROPOSED
Shangri-La, extension 16th arrondissement 20 5 2013 Shangri-La
Buddha Bar Hôtel 8th arrondissement 65 5 2013 Buddha Bar
123 Sébastopol 10th arrondissement 65 4 2013 Astotel
Porte de Vanves 14th arrondissement 96 4 2013 Boissée Finance
MGallery Piscine Molitor 16th arrondissement 124 4 2013 Accor
Courtyard Porte de la Villette 19th arrondissement 297 3 2013 Marriott
B&B Porte de la Villette 19th arrondissement 202 2 2013 B&B
Total Rooms Proposed 869
NEW DEVELOPMENTS 2014 <
PROPOSED
Hôtel Zadig & Voltaire 7th arrondissement 40 5 2014 Thierry Gillier
Plaza Athénée, extension 8th arrondissement 25 5 2014 Dorchester Collection
The Peninsula Paris 16th arrondissement 200 5 2014 Peninsula
AC by Marriott Porte Maillot 17th arrondissement 166 4 2014 Marriott
Renaissance Malmaison Rueil Malmaison 80 4 2014 Marriott
Renaissance Paris Saint-Cloud Saint-Cloud 113 4 2014 Marriott
Marriott Courtyard Le Bourget Le Bourget 120 4 2014 Marriott
Mélia La Défense La Défense 343 4 2014 Mélia
Projet Boulevard d'Indochine 19th arrondissement 149 3 2014 Kyriad Design by Enzo
Hilton Garden Inn Roissy-Charles de Gaulle n/a 3 2014 Hitlon Worldwide
B&B Porte des Lilas 20th arrondissement 265 2 2014 B&B
Hampton by Hilton Roissy-Charles de Gaulle n/a 2 2014 Hilton Worldwide
Porte Dorée 12th arrondissement n/a n/a 2014 Mairie de Paris
Porte de Vincennes 12th arrondissement n/a n/a 2014 Mairie de Paris
Porte de Choisy Project 13th arrondissement n/a n/a 2014 Mairie de Paris
Mélia Roissy Roissy-Charles de Gaulle 369 5 2015 Mélia
Projet Austerlitz Sud 13th arrondissement n/a 4 2015 n/a
Projet Duo (B3A) 13th arrondissement 237 4 2015 n/a
Pullman Porte de Ternes 17th arrondissement 150 4 2015 Accor
Suite Novotel Porte de Vanves 14th arrondissement 96 3 2015 Accor
Motel One Porte Dorée 12th arrondissement 300 2 2015 Motel One
Paris Rive Gauche Rehabilitation 13th arrondissement 170 n/a 2015 Mairie de Paris
Le Cheval Blanc (La Samaritaine) 1st arrondissement 100 5 2016 LVMH
Poste du Louvre 1st arrondissement 80 4 2016 n/a
Projet Gare Austerlitz 13th arrondissement n/a 2/3 2016 n/a
Tour Hermitage La Défense n/a 5 2017 n/a
Zenit Hôtel 2nd arrondissement n/a 4 TBC Zenit Hôteles
Hôtel Rivié 2nd arrondissement 100 4 TBC n/a
Total Rooms Proposed 3,103
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Hotel Intelligence: Paris 9
Paris has historically been one of the most successful hotel
markets in Europe. Although relatively resilient to domestic
shocks, the destination is still affected by worldwide
geopolitical, economic and financial crises, leading to
temporary decreases in RevPAR. Nevertheless, over the past
6 years, Paris has proven its capability to rebound quickly
from these temporary declines and posted impressive
RevPAR growth rates in comparison to other European
gateway markets.
The resilience of the Paris hotel market could also be seen in
2012 when hoteliers posted another record year in terms of
trading performance. RevPAR improved by 8.1% year on year
to a new peak of €202 at the end of 2012. Due to stable
demand, hoteliers were able to increase their average room
rates by 8% with occupancy remaining close to 80%.
One of the reasons for Paris solid market fundamentals are its
tight supply conditions with a limited number of land plots
available for development. This has encouraged hoteliers to
increase room rates which have increased by a CAAG rate of
4.1% between 2005 and 2012.
Despite the on-going uncertainty in Europe and the economic
challenges in France, trading performance results in Paris
remained positive in the first three months of 2013. RevPAR
at YTD March 2013 improved by 4.5% due to a 0.8% increase
in occupancy and a 3.8% appreciation in average room rates.
Three consecutive years of record trading performance
Paris: Hotel Trading Performance
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Occ
up
ancy
€(2
012
valu
es)
ADR 2012 values (€) RevPAR 2012 values (€) Occupancy
Source: STR Global, December 2012
Paris: YTD March 2013
2012 2013 Change
Occupancy 69.9% 70.4% 0.8%
ADR(€) 226.38 234.87 3.8%
RevPAR (€) 158.14 165.31 4.5%
Source: STR Global
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Occupancy 67.6% 70.5% 74.6% 78.9% 78.7% 74.9% 77.7% 79.0% 78.9%
ARR (€) 148.85 193.24 205.80 204.15 214.36 197.42 210.65 237.04 256.58
RevPAR (€) 100.59 136.16 153.57 161.17 168.73 147.78 163.68 187.26 202.44
RevPAR Growth (%) 4.9% 35.4% 12.8% 5.0% 4.7% -12.4% 10.8% 14.4% 8.1%
Inflation 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 2.8% 0.1% 1.50% 2.1% 1.3%
ADR 2012 values (€) 160.83 215 226 221 225 207 218 240 257
RevPAR 2012 values (€) 108.69 152 168 174 177 155 169 190 202
Source: STR Global, Global Insight
10 Hotel Intelligence: Paris
Over the past 4–8 years, average occupancy has remained
high at around 77–78%. Stable growth in ADR was also
witnessed in both periods fluctuating between 2.5–3.3%.
RevPAR grew at about twice the rate of inflation over the past 4
-8 years.
Due to the city’s well-balanced business mix, hotels in Paris
register moderate seasonality, which results in high year-round
trading performance. Peak seasons correspond to spring and
autumn months, driven by the combination of corporate
clientele, trade fair and congress activity, and tourist demand.
The impact of the leading trade fairs and congresses is
significant (see the following graph), with performance peaking
in June during the Air Show, and October during the Auto Show.
This high level of seasonality tends to cap any major increase in
occupancy.
RevPAR is expected to improve slightly in 2013, although at a
slower pace than in 2011 and 2012 due to weak economic
prospects. Occupancy is likely to plateau, whereas ADR
growth is expected to remain above inflation. This will be
supported by a limited supply growth.
The outlook for hotel performance in the medium to long term
is likely to remain promising, with hotels expected to benefit
from an improvement in economic conditions and a further
strengthening in foreign travel, particularly from Brazil, Russia
and China. The recent and future opening of several luxury
Asian brands should increase the volume of Asian clientele.
The gradual moving of Ramadan to earlier in the year will also
mean that the traditional peak demand from Middle Eastern
guests will be more easily accommodated.
With a continuing growth in RevPAR, and limited future
supply, investor interest is expected to remain very strong.
This will be reinforced by the reputation of Paris as a safe
haven for investors and by the long-term strength of hotels
operating in the city.
Positive trading expectations for
2013
Paris Trading Growth Rates
2005-2012 2008-2012
Average Occupancy 76.7% 77.8%
ARR CAAG 2.5% 3.3%
RevPAR CAAG 4.2% 3.4%
Source: STR Global
Source: STR Global
Paris: RevPAR Seasonality
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
€
2010 2011 2012
Hotel Intelligence: Paris
This report is confidential to the recipient of the report. No reference to the report or any part of it may be published in any document, state-ment or circular or in any communication with third parties without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle, including specifically in relation to the form and context in which it will appear. We stress that forecasting is a problematical exercise which at best should be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities rather than absolute certainties. The process of making forward projections involves assumptions in respect of a considerable number of varia-bles which are acutely sensitive to changing conditions, variations in any one of which may significantly affect the outcome and we draw your attention to this factor. Jones Lang LaSalle makes no representation, warranty, assurance or guarantee with respect to any material with which this report may be issued and this report should not be taken as an endorsement of or recommendation on any participation by any intending investor or any other party in any transaction whatsoever. This report has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. Users should not rely on this report and must make their own enquiries to verify and satisfy themselves of all aspects of information set out in the report. We have used and relied upon information from sources generally regarded as authoritative and reputable, but the information obtained from these sources may not have been independently verified by Jones Lang LaSalle. Whilst the material contained in the report has been prepared in good faith and with due care, no representation or warranty is made in relation to the accuracy, currency, completeness, suitability or otherwise of the whole or any part of the report. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, its officers, employees, subcontractors and agents shall not be liable (to the extent permitted by law) to any person for any loss, liability, damage or expense (‘liability’) arising directly or indirectly from or connected in any way with any use of or reliance on this report. If any liability is established, notwithstanding this exclusion, it shall not exceed $1,000.
12 Hotel Intelligence: Paris
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