hoegh guldberg o-20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15
TRANSCRIPT
Chlorophyll from space, Gene Feldman, NASA
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and (Ocean 2015 Initiative) Global Change Institute University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia
Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities
2207 - Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of
warming and acidification on natural and human systems
AR5 scoping meeting
13-17 July, 2009 Venice, Italy
Government review of AR4 (WGII) Functional elements of oceans not captured Lack of impact assessment on a regional basis Trans-boundary opportunities missed
IPCC AR5 (2014)
1. Ocean regions 2. Regional impacts 3. Decision frame-works 4. Conclusion
Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities
IPCC WGII Ocean reprint series: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/ocean/
What do we mean by ocean regions?
HLSB 20 m tons yr–1)
EUS: 5 m tons yr–1)
EBUE 12 m tons yr–1)
CBS: 19 m tons yr–1)
Seven regional types: based on productivity and oceanography
1. Ocean regions
Recent past: Past 60 years of Hadley Centre HadISST1.1 data
PDO
Long-term variability
Future: CMIP5, http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). Recent past: Past 60 years Hadley Centre HadISST1.1 data
Physical, chemical and biological responses attributable to climate
change at the regional scale?
Assessment of physical,
chemical and biological
change across seven key ocean regions.
Detection and attribution matrix - confidence
Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30 OLSM
Medium to very high confidence in detection and attribution
KEY EXAMPLES
Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30 OLSM
Medium to very high confidence in detection and attribution
KEY EXAMPLES
Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30 OLSM
Detection and attribution chains?
Importance of attribution chains
Physical Change: Increased ocean temperature and decreased pH
EXAMPLE
Very high confidence in detection and attribution
Biological Response: Mass coral bleaching and mortality, intertidal invertebrate mass mortality in regions like the Mediterranean Sea.
Very high confidence in detection and attribution
Likely future (RCP8.5): Loss of coral dominated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Community change in intertidal communities as extreme events increase in frequency and severity.
Ocean regions: Sub-tropical gyre systems (e.g. Pacific gyre)
Coastal Boundary systems (e.g. Coral Triangle)
Semi-enclosed seas (e.g. Red Sea)
Implications: Loss of ecosystems services, income and livelihoods
1. Ocean regions 2. Regional impacts 3. Decision frame-works 4. Conclusion
Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities
IPCC WGII Ocean reprint series: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/ocean/
Identifying change at the regional scale in the ocean presents opportunities for multilateral problem-solving. Acting now will drive significant advantages for communities and industries
Source: WGII AR5 Ch30
Using regional changes to drive policy development
Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30
Frame-works for decision makers
Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30
Frame-works for decision makers
1. Bringing a regional perspective to oceans has increased our understanding integrated and trans-national impacts of climate change.
2. Detected impacts vary in type, scale, confidence and influence on human communities and industries.
3. Many regional changes can be confidently attributed to ocean warming and acidification.
4. Many regional challenges are beyond the scope of adaptation yet remain serious risks with mitigation the only way out.
5. The identification of change at a regional scale presents opportunities for multi lateral problem-solving and knowledge sharing.
Conclusions
IPCC WGII Ocean reprint series: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/ocean/