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8/3/2019 HISTORICALREVIEWQBS

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HISTORICAL DRAFT REVIEW: QUARTERBACKS by Tony Villiotti

This is one in a series of articles in which DRAFTMETRICS will review the draft and other relevant history

(from 1991-2010) for each playing position. Each article will focus on the years from 1991 through 2010.

The purpose of the articles will be to provide a greater understanding of the historical results of drafting

the various positions.

As with just about every DRAFTMETRICS article, it is inevitable that the subject of Value Groups is

raised. As reminder, the Value Groups are as follows:

Value Group 1 – Selections 1 through 13 Value Group 5 – Selections 75 through 114

Value Group 2 – Selections 14 through 28 Value Group 6 – Selections 115 through 200

Value Group 3 – Selections 29 through 48 Value Group 7 – Selections 201 and later

Value Group 4 – Selections 49 through 74

8 Things You Ought to Know About Drafting Quarterbacks

1. Over 48% of all QB starts have come from players drafted in the first two Value Groups, nearly

twice as high as the average for all positions

2. About 12% of QB starts have been by free agents

3. QBs are drafted disproportionately high in the draft,

4. An average of 12 QBs per year are selected annually in the draft

5. Over the past 20 years, more QBs have been drafted from the PAC 10 than any other conference

6. Over the past 20 years, 30 QBs have started at least 8 games in their rookie season

7. Chances of drafting a 5-Year Starter by Value Group

a. VG 1 – 68.2%

b. VG 2 – 12.5%

c. VG 3 – 44.4%

d. VG 4 – 14.3%

e. VG 5 – 6.7%

f. VG 6 – 15.6%

g. VG 7 – 3.9%

8. The trend is for more QBs to start as rookies

Source of Starters

DRAFTMETRICS took a look at the source of QB starters for the 2010 season, the 2006-2010 seasons and

the entire 1991 to 2010 study period. The following chart shows the percentage of games started by

quarterbacks, broken down by Value Group, undrafted free agents and supplemental draft choices.

Supplemental draft choices are those choices made in the Supplemental Draft, which is held to

accommodate players who wish to play in the NFL but who missed the draft filing date or had a change

in circumstances.



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

VG1 VG2 VG3 VG4 VG5 VG6 VG7 FA SD

2010

2006-2010

1991-2010

The next graph shows the sources of QB starts for the 2006 through 2010 seasons compared to (1) the

average of all positions and (2) the percentage of QB draft choices in that Value Group. For example, the

percentage all QB starts from VG1 is 36.3% while the percentage for all positions is 13.5%. The

percentage of all QB draft selections in VG1 is 12.6% (a full 20 years was used for this factor since draft

selections from many years would be represented in the 2006-2010 starts).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

VG1 VG2 VG3 VG4 VG5 VG6 VG7 FA

QBs

All Positions

% of QB Draft Choices

These two graphs demonstrate several points about the source of starting QBs:

• Quarterbacks selected in Value Group 1 dominated the number of starts, accounting for about

38% of all starts in 2010, 36% from 2006-2010 and 31% for 1991-2010 .

• Selections after Value Group 2 have not been good sources of QB starters

• Starts by UDFA declined in 2010 (mainly due to Kurt Warner’s retirement)



The QBs who started eight or more games in 2010 are classified as follows:

VG1 VG2 VG3 VG4 VG5 VG6 VG7 FA

Bradford Campbell Brees Henne Garrard Brady Cassel Hill

Cutler Flacco Clausen Orton Hasselbeck Fitzpatrick Kitna

P. Manning Freeman Favre Schaub

E. Manning Rodgers

McNab

Palmer

Rivers

Roethlisberger

Ryan

A.Smith

Vick

Young

Drafting Patterns

The importance of the quarterback position is obvious and can clearly be seen when looking at the

annual number of draft choices for the position. The following table shows the number of QBs drafted

within each Value Group on an annual basis.

Table: Number of Quarterbacks Selected by Value Group and by Year

Year VG1 VG2 VG3 VG4 VG5 VG6 VG7 Total

1991 0 2 2 0 3 2 4 13

1992 1 1 2 0 4 2 10 20

1993 2 0 0 1 0 2 3 8

1994 2 0 0 0 1 5 1 9

1995 2 0 1 1 4 5 1 14

1996 0 0 1 0 2 1 4 8

1997 0 1 1 0 2 2 4 10

1998 2 0 0 1 2 2 1 8

1999 5 0 0 1 2 2 3 13

2000 0 1 0 1 1 4 5 12

2001 1 0 1 2 2 5 0 11

2002 2 0 1 0 2 6 4 15

2003 2 2 0 0 3 3 3 13

2004 3 1 0 0 2 4 7 17

2005 1 2 0 2 2 3 4 14

2006 3 0 0 2 2 4 1 12

2007 1 1 3 0 1 2 2 10

2008 1 1 0 2 1 6 2 13

2009 2 1 1 0 1 5 0 10

2010 1 1 1 0 1 6 4 14

Total 31 14 14 13 38 71 65 246



There is an average of about 12 quarterbacks per year selected in the draft, with 20 being the most

selected (1992) and 8 being the least (1993, 1996 and 1998).

Although QBs represent less than 5% of all players drafted, the position accounts for 12% of all

selections made in Value Group 1. The following graph shows the representation of QBs in each Value

Group. The flat line represents the percentage of QBs selected in entire draft.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

VG1 VG2 VG3 VG4 VG5 VG6 VG7

This graph illustrates the bias toward drafting QBs in the first Value Group and suggests that the

premium placed on the position leads to QBs being “pushed up” in the draft. There are more

quarterbacks selected in Value Group 1 than in Value Groups 2 and 3 combined. This is consistent with

the information in the preceding section regarding the source of starters.

Producing QBs – Who Does It Best?

In order to address this issue, DRAFTMETRICS developed the following table which lists the number of QBs drafted by conference and by Value Group from 1991 through 2010. The conference affiliations are

those in place during the 2010 college football season. The “Mid-Majors” included the Big East, the

Independents, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, Conference USA and the

Western Athletic Conference.

Table: QBs Drafted by Conference and Value Group

Conference VG1 VG2 VG3 VG4 VG5 VG6 VG7 Total

ACC 3 1 1 0 7 7 7 26

Big 10 1 0 5 1 4 9 10 30

Big 12 2 1 0 1 6 2 7 19Pac 10 8 4 1 4 5 8 10 40

SEC 7 3 0 1 2 9 3 25

Total Big 5 21 9 7 7 24 35 37 140

Mid-Majors 9 4 7 4 9 20 16 69

Others 1 1 0 2 5 16 12 37

Total 31 14 14 13 38 71 65 246



The PAC 10 has been the clear leader in QBs drafted, both in the early rounds and overall. The SEC is

close in Value Groups 1 and 2, but falls pretty far behind overall. The Big 10 is second overall, but had

only 1 QB (Kerry Collins of Penn State) selected in either of the first two Value Groups during the study

period.

DRAFTMETRICS then addressed the issue of whether any of the conferences have had better (or worse)

than expected success from their drafted QBs. The following table includes:

• The number of QBs drafted from each conference

• The cumulative number of career years for all draftees

• The cumulative number of starter years (each year where a player starts 8 or more games is a

starter year) for all draftees

• The number of drafted players whose career lasted at least 5 years

• The number of drafted players who had at least 5 starter years

• The number of drafted players who started as rookies

• The number of drafted players who were selected for the Pro Bowl or as an All Pro at least once

Table: Various Measures by Conference

ConferenceNumber

Drafted

Career

Years

Starter

Years

5-Year

Careers

5-Year

Starters

Rookie

Starters

Pro

Bowl

All

Pro

ACC 26 118 46 13 5 2 5 0

Big 10 30 146 63 14 6 3 4 2

Big 12 19 55 15 6 1 4 0 0

Pac 10 40 168 74 16 5 8 4 0

SEC 25 85 39 9 2 5 3 1

Total Big 5 140 572 237 58 19 22 16 3Mid-Majors 69 291 113 29 12 7 8 1

Others 37 71 21 4 1 1 0 0

Total 246 934 371 91 32 30 24 4

The performance measures are definitely affected by when a draft choice was made (e.g., a 2010 draft

choice cannot have a 5-Year career or be a 5-Year starter in one season). A few observations are as

follows:

• The Big 10’s performance is deceptively good as no 5-year starters have been drafted since 2001

o Kyle Orton is the only QB drafted since then who has a shot at being a 5-year starter

• The Big 12’s performance is on the improve

o Recent draftees such as Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and (maybe) Vince Young are likely

to boost the Big 12’s performance measures

• The PAC 10 should continue to be the most dominant force in producing QBs

o Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassell and Mark Sanchez should add to the performance of the

conference



• The Mannings are the only 5-year starters produced by the SEC but Jay Cutler and possibly Jason

Campbell should add to the list

o Jamarcus Russell of LSU ranks among the biggest QB busts

• Conference USA has produced many 5-year starters considering the number of players drafted

but none since 2002 and no recent draftees are likely to hit that milestone

• Steve McNair (Alcorn State) is the only “Other” QB to become a 5-year starter, but this is largely

a function of the fact that big school QBs dominate the early rounds of the draft

o Joe Flacco should join McNair and they are the only two “Other” QBs drafted in the first

two Value Groups

Success Rates by Value Group

DRAFTMETRICS also analyzed the success in drafting QBs by Value Group. For purposes of this analysis,

the drafted QBs were divided into two groups – those drafted in 2004 or earlier and those drafted in

2005 and later. The reason for this division is that the latter group of QBs have careers that are still in

flux and even a preliminary final measurement is premature.

The following table shows various performance measures by Value Group for the period from 1991

through 2004. A probability of 50% for rookie starters in Value Group 1 means that 11 of the 22 QBs

drafted in Value Group 1 started as rookies.

Table: Various Measures by Value Group for 1991-2004

Value

Group

Number

Of

Choices

Probability of

5-Year

Career

5-Year

Starters

Rookie

Starters

Pro

Bowlers

All

Pros

VG1 22 81.8% 68.2% 50.0% 50.0% 4.5%

VG2 8 75.0% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%

VG3 9 77.8% 44.4% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%

VG4 7 71.4% 14.3% 28.6% 14.3% 0.0%

VG5 30 63.3% 6.7% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0%

VG6 45 31.1% 15.6% 0.0% 13.3% 2.2%

VG7 51 19.6% 3.9% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Total 172 45.9% 18.6% 9.9% 12.8% 2.3%

The numbers of QBs drafted is relatively low, so it is more difficult to reach conclusions than for other

playing positions. Observations are as follows:

• There is definitely a sharp drop-off after the first Value Group

o VG1 produced about half the 5-year starters from 1991-2004 and more than half of the

rookie starters.

• VG2 draftees have been less productive than VGs 3 and 4 and, on some measures, VG 6

o The small number of draftees makes the conclusions somewhat tenuous

o Only Chad Pennington was a 5-year starter



• VG3 draftees have been significantly more productive than VG2

o Again, this is colored by the few number of selections

• VG6 draftees have a higher percentage of 5-year starters drafted than all but VGs 1 and 3

o VG6 has produced Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Brunell, Jeff Blake, Marc Bulger

and Gus Frerotte.

If it was difficult to draw conclusions for the 1991 to 2004 time period, it is virtually impossible to do the

same for the QBS drafted from 2005 through 2010. The following table shows the same information as

the preceding table but for the later time period.

Table: Various Measures by Value Group for 1995-2010

Value

Group

Number

Of

Choices

Probability of

5-Year

Career

5-Year

Starters

Rookie

Starters

Pro

Bowlers

All

Pros

VG1 9 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 22.2% 0.0%

VG2 6 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 16.7% 0.0%VG3 5 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0%

VG4 6 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

VG5 8 25.0% 0.0% 37.5% 0.0% 0.0%

VG6 26 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%

VG7 14 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total 74 14.9% 0.0% 17.6% 4.1% 0.0%

There are a couple of points worth noting:

• The percentage of rookie starters is almost twice as high as in 1991-2004

• Recent VG2 QBs seem to be on their way to have a much better performance record than those

drafted from 1991-2004

o This group includes Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell and Josh Freeman

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