historical energy overview & why there is no consensus for...

Historical energy overview &

why there is no consensus for the future

Carey King, PhD

Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy

Jackson School of Geosciences

Carey W. King, Ph.D. UT Energy Seminar, September 1, 2011

2

There are widely divergent viewpoints on the

future of energy resources & technology


3

Limits to Growth … resource constraints are

real • Main conclusions

– “… global ecological constraints (related to

resource use and emissions) would have

significant influence on global developments in

the twenty-first century.”

– “… humanity might have to divert much capital

and manpower to battle these constraints –

possibly so much that the average quality of life

would decline sometime during the twenty-first

century.”

– Early action could reduce damage caused by

approaching global limits


4

The Bottomless Well …. we will not run out of

energy

• “What lies at the bottom of the bottomless well isn‟t

oil, it‟s logic. Fuels recede, demand grows,

efficiency makes things worse, but logic ascends,

and with the rise of logic we attain the impossible –

infinite energy, perpetual motion, and the triumph

of power. It will all run out but we will always find

more.”

• Energy efficiency leads to more consumption

– Rebound effect, or Jevons‟ Paradox

– More energy consumption is always better

Global Energy Trends


6

World Population and Energy:

Today

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(mil

lio

ns)

0

100

200

300

400

500

En

erg

y (

Qu

ad

s)

G. W. Bush

President

9/11/2001

Energy

Population

Facebook


7


Current Lives

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(mil

lio

ns

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

En

erg

y (

Qu

ad

s)

Commercial

Internet

AT&T Cellular

Network

Population

Energy

OPEC/Arab

Oil Embargo

Myspace


8


Industrial Times

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

0

100

200

300

400

500

En

erg

y (

Qu

ad

s)

Parson‟s Steam

Turbine

(electricity)

Newcomen‟s

Steam Engine

First TV

Phonograph,

Light bulb

Population

Energy

United States

formed!


9


Human Civilization

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns)

0

100

200

300

400

500

En

erg

y (

Qu

ad

s)

Egyptian

Pyramids Ancient

Greeks

Middle

Ages

Fall of

Roman

Empire

Population

Energy

Age of Fossil

Fuels


10

Snapshot of World Energy Reserves (~ 28,000 EJ cumulative since 0 A.D.; 18,000 EJ since 1950)

Resource Type Proved

Reserves (EJ)

Additional

Resource (EJ)

Coal (WEC) 20,000 – 25,000 --

Oil and NG Liquids (WEC) 6,800 3,450

Oil Shale, bitumen, Extra

Heavy-Oil (WEC, 1) ~1,900 41,000

Natural Gas (WEC) 7,000 --

Uranium (2) (< $130/kg) 1,400 – 2,200 600 – 1,000

TOTAL “Fossil” 37,000 – 43,000 45,000

Hydropower (WEC) 59/yr 148/yr

Biomass (terrestrial NPP) 27 (3a) 1,900 (3b)

Solar (4) (total resource) N/A 2,780,000/yr

TOTAL “Renewable/yr” ~ 100 + ? 2,780,000

(1) Resource for bitumen and heavy oil is estimated discovered oil in place.

(2) Assuming use in light water reactors and open fuel cycle.

(3a) “Proved Reserves” ~ sustainable (Field et al., 2008. Trends in Ecology and Evolution).

(3b) Resource (Moriarity and Honnery, 2007. Intl. Journal of Hydrogen Tech.); Smil (2008) Energy in

Nature and Society (p. 72).

(4) Solar insolation to Earth surface.

Stocks in the

ground (stored

there for free).

Flows in the

environment

(mostly not

stored for free).

WEC: (1), (2), & (4) from World

Energy Council (2007). 2007

Survey of Energy Resources.

Energy & technological change with long-

term context


12

Why do we care about energy?

• Fundamentally high quality energy supplies (mostly

fossil) have enabled economic growth and

prosperity as the modern world knows it today

• Most technologies are not possible without cheap

and high quality energy supplies

• Economic growth has a hard time continuing

without cheap energy supplies


13

Country Comparison:

HDI vs. Energy per Person

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Hu

man

De

velo

pm

en

t In

de

x

GJ/(person*year)

China

USA Iceland

Bahrain

Mozambique,

DR Congo,

Ethiopia

Japan,

Germany

United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

What’s the difference?

• Human

Development

Index

– Life

expectancy

index

– Education

Index (2/3

literacy, 1/3

enrollment)

– GDP index

http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/


14

An inflection seems to emerge near 100

GJ/person/yr

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Hu

man

De

velo

pm

en

t In

de

x

GJ/(person*year)

China

USA Iceland

Bahrain

Mozambique,

DR Congo,

Ethiopia

Japan,

Germany

United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/ (2008)

• Human

Development

Index

– Life

expectancy

index

– Education

Index (2/3

literacy, 1/3

enrollment)

– GDP index

http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/


15

World Energy Council (2007), Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

World Average ~ 77 GJ/person

23% of population at 100 GJ/person

Less than 1.5 billion people at > 100 GJ/person


16

Historical Today: What is energy for?

Smil, Vaclav. (2003) Energy at the Crossroads

21% 34% 25% 16%

~ 3% for food

~50% for food


17

A decreasing number of hours for agriculture

translated to economic growth, new job types

• US farming

– 373 million hectares1

• If all farming was wheat

– @ 3 hrs/ha/yr 0.3%

of work hours

– < 5% of Western labor

employed by agriculture

1. http://www.ers.usda.gov/StateFacts/US.htm

• Fossil fuels

dominate after 1800

• “Ours is a fossil-

fueled civilization,

and its dependence

on coals and

hydrocarbons

cannot be shed

without profoundly

reshaping the entire

society.” (Smil, 2008)


18 R. Haas et al., Energy Policy 36 (2008) 4012–4021

Expansion of energy & technology post-WW II


19

People consume energy that’s available to

substitute for physical work/labor

• Physical labor has decreased considerably since

1800s

– Energy = Force × distance (= work)

– Pre-1800 UK coal mining involved carrying coal

on backs of women, children, and men

– We traded „fuels + technology‟ for physical labor

• Since we‟re not „working‟ physically as much, we

have a different economy

How do we decide among current and

future energy options?


21

Holistic view of energy tradeoffs create

different visions of the future

National

Security Environment

Economics Tend to be few

options here


22

Let’s think about the Environment

National


Economics


23

1 Bgal of coal ash breaches Tennessee Valley

Authority earthen dam in TN (Dec 2008)

http://carbonfreeeconomy.com/energy/tva-coal-

ash-spill-video-pictures

• 26 homes damaged

• 49/431 coal-ash storage

facilities as “high hazard”


24

EPA proposed rule to limit water intake at

power plants

• New generation units subject to closed loop cooling

towers

– Possible some existing power and industrial

facilities

• 1,260 total existing facilities

(760 likely already comply)

– Minimum fish kill

requirement or max. intake

velocity

http://www.surfrider.org/coastal-blog/entry/new-rulemaking-for-coastal-power-plants


25

Hydraulic fracturing shale for gas/oil becoming

more extensive in practice … and debate

• Energy Policy Act (2005) exempted hydraulic

fracturing from federal Safe Drinking Water Act

– States still regulate groundwater

– EPA reviewing, looking into drinking water impacts

– Creates animosity public and competing industries

• A lot of water or a little?

– Millions of gallons per well

– ~ 1-10 gallons of water/MMBtu of Barnett Shale NG (2005)1

– Akin to historic oil production

1. Bene´, J.; Harden, B.; Griffin, S.; Nicot, J. P. Assessment of groundwater use in the Northern Trinity Aquifer

due to urban growth and Barnett Shale development.; King and Webber (2008) Env. Sci. & Tech.


26

No: Don’t just frac it http://gaslandthemovie.com/


27

Yes: Just “FRAC IT”

Texas license plate

No: Don’t just frac it http://gaslandthemovie.com/


28

Many fuel alternatives seem to consume more water

than petroleum travel

King & Webber (2008). Env. Sci. & Tech. 42 (21), 7866-7872.


29

Environmentalists vs. Environmentalists

• “Wind turbines kill birds”

• “Wind turbines are eyesores”

– Texas Coast (King Ranch vs. Kennedy Ranch)

Those dog

gone cats!

wind

[US

FW

S, 2

00

2]


30

Policies for alternative measures to GDP focus

on environmental limits

“Ecological Footprint” measures

how much water and land area a

human population requires

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/


31

U.S. national security

National


Economics


32

If the US has large energy resources, why the

security concern?

• US has abundant energy resources that are roughly

economic today

– Coal: (largest world reserves)

– Natural Gas: (> 100 yrs @ current consumption

and new shale estimates – much debated)

– Oil: US is world‟s 3rd largest producer (< Russia,

Saudi Arabia)

• 5.5 MMBBL/day crude oil + condensate (2010)

– Wind and solar: insolation & area are good


33

US energy security is based upon our high

consumption of oil

• Because transportation is still dominated by oil, US

energy security centers on oil

• US consumed 19.1 MMBBL/d petroleum (2010)

– 22% of world consumption

– < 5% of world population

– US has only ~ 2% of world oil reserves

– US imports ~ 50%-60% of petroleum for

consumption

• Oil is „unique‟ in that it is the only fuel US

consumes much more than domestic production


34

We can do it: Turning oil into salt (enable different fuels; stop $ to OPEC)

Anne Korin

James Woolsey (former director CIA)

Gal Luft


35

Forget oil and salt security ...

Coal keeps the monsters away!

and enough power

to keep the monsters away


36

Oil is the most economically influential energy

resource

National


Economics


37

Important indicators are the percentage of our

expenditures and income going to energy

EIA. Annual Energy Review 2009.

2007 US median income

~ $31,000

$4K/$31K~ 13%


38

If energy gets too expensive, GDP stops ↑

EIA, Annual Energy Review (2008).

2008


39

Oil expenditures as % of GDP seem to indicate

a threshold for recessions

Steven Kopits: http://www.dw-1.com/files/files/438-06-09_-_Research_Note_-_Oil_-

_What_Price_can_America_Afford_-_DWL_website_version.pdf


40

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

0 10 20 30 40

Oil

pri

ce (

$/B

BL)

EROI

Future oil supplies are costlier:

lower net energy (EROI) = higher price

Oil Sands

(marginal BBL today)

Oil Shale

Historical

Range

Recent

Range

EROI = Energy Return on Investment = Eout/Ein

King, C.W. and Hall, C.A.S. (2011), in press.


41

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

0 10 20 30 40

Oil

pri

ce (

$/B

BL)

EROI

Converting to end-use fuels raises price (and

lowers EROI) more

Oil Sands

(marginal BBL today)

Historical

Range

Recent

Range

EROI = Energy Return on Investment = Eout/Ein

Gasoline

Oil Shale

Corn ethanol,

algal biodiesel

King, C.W. and Hall, C.A.S. (2011), in press.


42

Oil expenditures have fluctuated the most, and

the US consumes more oil than it has, …


43

… US energy policy is fragmented, perceived

to be dominated by ‘BIG OIL’, …


44

… many energy options have environmental

tradeoffs we don’t want, …


45

… but we still think we can get all energy

without building anything, …

BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing

Anywhere Near Anyone

NIMBY: Not In My BackYard

http://www.cafepress.com/frackingnope


46

… if we’re not killing the environment, we

might be indirectly killing ourselves (oil $ terrorism),


47

… or if not helping terrorists, then maybe

state-backed antipathy toward the U.S., …


48

… so the US goal has clearly (!) been to reduce

oil imports, …

1969 1988

1989 2011

In 2010 US spent ~ $300 Billion for imports

Terrorists of 9/11/01 needed < $1 million

Me

too!


49 EIA. Annual Energy Review 2009.

Value of US

Energy Imports


50

… and the world has caught up to the

traditional economic powers (US, EU, Japan).

• Emerging markets

can grow more on

higher-priced

energy than can

developed markets


51

U.S. sectoral energy consumption saw shifts in

1970s and 2000s

EIA. Annual Energy Review 2009.

Offshoring?

Globalization?


52

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Btu

/$2

00

5 U

S

Energy Intensity

China

USA

World

Lack of transition to higher quality fuels is

exemplified by use of coal in China, and …

EIA. Uses $2005 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

China

USA

World


53

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

tCO

2/$

20

00

CO2 intensity

China

USA

World

Lack of transition to higher quality fuels is

exemplified by use of coal in China, and …

EIA. Uses $2005 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

China

USA

World

World


54

Any International cooperation for GHG must

deal with global economic transition

© OECD/IEA. 2007. World Energy Outlook 2007.

Long-term energy future is a big guess


56

Fuel transition models do not hold to simple pattern –

Energy production technologies are very different

than energy consumption technologies

Marchetti, 1977; Luís de Sousa - http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2746

Coal Oil

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Wood

10%

50%

90%

1%

Solar,

Fusion


57

Recent US petroleum consumption projections

keep getting revised downward

• Oil price rise and economic downturn post-2008

weighs heavily on oil consumption prospects

US EIA Annual Energy Outlooks 2004 to 2011, Reference cases

2004, 2005

2009,

2010,

2011

2006

2007

2008


58

The Limits to Growth conclusion

• “There is no question about whether growth in the

ecological footprint will stop; the only questions are

when and by what means.”

The Bottomless Well conclusion

• “Societies that expand and improve their energy

supplies overwhelm those that don‟t.”

• “Humanity is destined to find and consume more

energy, and still more, forever”


59 R. Haas et al., Energy Policy 36 (2008) 4012–4021

100%

0%

% o

f prim

ary

energ

y R

EN

EW

AB

LE

% w

ork

forc

e in “

food +

Energ

y”

The past has shown considerable change …


60


The Future

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(mil

lio

ns

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

En

erg

y (

Qu

ad

s)

… but short and long term viewpoints create

different perspectives on future prospects.

Past Future

Level Off?

Medium

Decline?

Large

Decline?

Continuous growth?


61

What will change and stay the same?

Namtso Lake, Tibet – 15,500 ft

PV Solar Cell (new energy)

Yak Dung (old energy)

Carey King [email protected]

http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/cieep

Thank You

http://www.webberenergygroup.com

WEBBER ENERGY GROUP

Center for International Energy and

Environmental Policy

historical energy overview & why there is no consensus for...

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