hista 2.1 data: the second generationservices.housingonline.com/nhra_images/julia lavigne.pdf ·...

HISTA 2.1 Data:

The Second Generation

Technology & Market Analysis: Mapping & Data Update

2012 Annual Meeting

National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA)

Chicago, IL September 2012

Julia LaVigne, Ribbon Demographics, LLC

www.ribbondata.com

http://www.ribbondata.com/

HISTA Background

Custom Four-Way Cross Tabulation of households developed by the U.S. Census Bureau specifically for Ribbon Demographics

Annual updates and 5-Year Projections from Nielsen (Claritas)

First developed for Census 2000, 2003 Estimates and 2008 Projections

Households by Income, Size, Tenure & Age

Cross tabulated data more accurate than

data with estimates or ratios applied

Only source with household size and

income cross tabulated

Allows for more consistent results

Available for large and small areas

HISTA Benefits

HISTA 2.1

Base: ACS 2006 – 2010 5-Year Period

Current Year Estimates: 2013

Current Year Projections: 2018

2000 data in 2010 geographies for original variables

Save the ACS!

The ACS is under attack!

What will happen if the ACS is

eliminated?

What will happen if ACS

responses become voluntary?

HISTA 2.1 Changes

Original HISTA

1. From Census 2000

SF1 Files

2. Available for Census

Tracts, Counties,

States & MSAs

3. Three age groups

4. Seven income

groups, capped at

$60,000+

New HISTA 2.1

1. From Census ACS 2006 – 2010 5-Year Period

2. Available for Census Tracts, Census Places, Counties, States & MSAs

3. Nine age groups

4. Twelve income groups, capped at $200,000+

HISTA Optional Extras

Original HISTA

1. Nielsen Estimates for Census Places & ZIP Codes

2. Nielsen Estimates for age breakouts above 60 years

3. Nielsen Estimates for income groups broken out above $60,000+

New HISTA 2.1

1. Nielsen Estimates for ZIP Codes

2. Nielsen Estimates for 5- and 6+ person households

3. All other items now part of main HISTA database

HISTA 2.1

Age Groups

Still has 62 years age break for this common age restriction

15 - 24 Years 55 - 61 Years

25 - 34 Years 62 - 64 Years

35 - 44 Years 65 - 74 Years

45 - 54 Years 75 - 84 Years

85+ Years

HISTA 2.1

Household Sizes

1 Person

2 Person

3 Person

4 Person

5+ Person

Nielsen Estimates for 5- and 6+persons

HISTA 2.1

Income Groups $0-10,000 $60,000-74,999

$10,000-19,999 $75,000-99,999

$20,000-29,999 $100,000-124,999

$30,000-39,999 $125,000-149,999

$40,000-49,999 $150,000-199,999

$50,000-59,999 $200,000+

Upper income ranges allow for the analysis of market-rate housing

HISTA 2.1 Detail

1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person

Household Household Household Household Household Total

$0-10,000 351,925 217,725 215,625 162,930 122,840 1,071,045

$10,000-20,000 388,410 264,010 265,960 231,750 191,465 1,341,595

$20,000-30,000 476,325 315,005 271,315 243,250 213,870 1,519,765

$30,000-40,000 479,095 322,000 244,925 213,030 184,070 1,443,120

$40,000-50,000 361,975 301,000 194,340 165,770 145,960 1,169,045

$50,000-60,000 234,155 272,365 158,705 130,350 113,780 909,355

$60,000-75,000 203,885 340,665 178,895 144,980 118,685 987,110

$75,000-100,000 139,470 350,510 166,470 122,115 100,340 878,905

$100,000-125,000 52,575 173,505 76,950 48,230 41,370 392,630

$125,000-150,000 17,270 81,330 37,355 21,395 18,140 175,490

$150,000-200,000 18,635 66,305 32,305 16,945 12,325 146,515

$200,000+ 16,200 42,565 19,425 10,850 7,780 96,820

Total 2,739,920 2,746,985 1,862,270 1,511,595 1,270,625 10,131,395

Renter Households

Age 25-34 Years

2006 - 2010 Average - American Community Survey

HISTA Comparison - ACS

One-person renter Households <65 years, $10-20,000

HISTA 2.1 - ACS 2006-2010 1,882,085

ACS 2006-2010

Total householders <65 years, $10-20,000 7,571,779

One-person renter Households <65 years 28%

2,153,603

114%

Total householders <65 years, $10-20,000 7,571,779

Renter rate householders <65 years 37%

One-person renter households 38%

1,048,151

-44%

USA

OR

HISTA Comparison 2000

Traditional Method

Estimated Households 1,412*

HISTA Data (Actual Census Data)

Census 2000 Households 234

Income range: $20,000 to $40,000

*Overestimated by 1,178 households (503%)

Example 2

Outer Suburban Market AreaCensus 2000 Data

Target population:

Renter households under age 55 years - all household sizes

Case Study – St. Paul MN Area

What does Demographic Data

tell us about the Study Area?

Case Study – Population by Age

Case Study – Five Year Projected Change

by Age

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Under

18

Years

18 to

24

Years

25 to

34

Years

35 to

44

Years

45 to

54

Years

55 to

64

Years

65 to

74

Years

75 to

84

Years

85 Y

ears

and U

p

Case Study – Households by Income

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s

Less than

$15,000

$15,000 -

$24,999

$25,000 -

$34,999

$35,000 -

$49,999

$50,000 -

$74,999

$75,000 -

$99,999

$100,000 -

$124,999

$125,000 -

$149,999

$150,000 -

$199,999

$200,000

and up

Estimated Households by Income - 2011

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

useh

old

s

Less than

$15,000

$15,000 -

$24,999

$25,000 -

$34,999

$35,000 -

$49,999

$50,000 -

$74,999

$75,000 -

$99,999

$100,000 -

$124,999

$125,000 -

$149,999

$150,000 -

$199,999

$200,000

and up

Estimated Household Income Change 2000 - 2011

Case Study – Five Year Projected Change

by Income

Case Study – Renters <55 Years



$0-10,000 513 153 138 118 96 1,018

$10,000-20,000 372 134 162 83 174 925

$20,000-30,000 342 133 81 86 130 772

$30,000-40,000 270 86 64 66 82 568

$40,000-50,000 104 117 4 61 137 423

$50,000-60,000 27 58 91 44 98 318

$60,000-75,000 35 85 72 25 38 255

$75,000-100,000 31 58 68 23 40 220

$100,000-125,000 16 36 42 17 28 139

$125,000-150,000 4 10 13 6 9 42

$150,000-200,000 2 6 6 3 6 23

$200,000+ 4 4 4 1 2 15

Total 1,720 880 745 533 840 4,718

Renter Households

Under Age 55 Years

Current Year Estimates - 2011

Household Size Income Range

Total Estimated

Households in

Income Ranges

Percent

Households by

Size

1-Person $17,650 - $29,400 409 41%

2-Person $20,150 - $33,600 162 16%

3-Person $22,650 - $37,800 109 11%

4-Person $25,150 - $41,950 120 12%

5+-Person $27,200 - $53,350 192 19%Total: 992 100%

St. Paul MN PMA

Based on HISTA 2011 Estimates

Aged below 55 Years

Renter Households between 30% and 50% AMI

Case Study – Income-Eligible Renters <55 Years

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Nu

mb

er

Ho

useh

old

s

Below 30%

AMI

30% to 50%

AMI

50% to 80%

AMI

Over 80% AMI

Total Eligible Renter Households Under 55 Years

by AMI Level



-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


Eligible Households by Size and AMI level

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1-Per

son

2-Per

son

3-Per

son

4-Per

son

5+-P

erso

n

Perc

en

t o

f T

ota

l E

lig

ible

Ho

useh

old

s

<30% AMI

30% - 50% AMI

50% - 80% AMI

80%+ AMI


Case Study – Projected Change Renters <55 Years



$0-10,000 -30 -19 -6 -2 -2 -59

$10,000-20,000 -20 -13 -7 -1 2 -39

$20,000-30,000 -27 -12 -5 -3 0 -47

$30,000-40,000 -11 -9 0 -2 2 -20

$40,000-50,000 5 -3 1 0 5 8

$50,000-60,000 0 0 2 2 1 5

$60,000-75,000 0 -7 3 0 5 1

$75,000-100,000 3 0 2 1 1 7

$100,000-125,000 0 2 4 4 2 12

$125,000-150,000 2 0 3 1 3 9

$150,000-200,000 0 0 3 0 2 5

$200,000+ -1 -1 2 0 1 1

Total -79 -62 2 0 22 -117

Five Year Projections - 2011 to 2016

Change in Renter Households

Under Age 55 Years

Case Study – Senior Renters 55+ Years



$0-10,000 360 57 14 19 12 462

$10,000-20,000 330 59 30 8 2 429

$20,000-30,000 143 71 5 6 16 241

$30,000-40,000 30 58 27 19 15 149

$40,000-50,000 11 42 13 13 9 88

$50,000-60,000 2 10 5 10 6 33

$60,000-75,000 0 1 4 5 15 25

$75,000-100,000 0 4 4 6 18 32

$100,000-125,000 1 2 4 1 7 15

$125,000-150,000 0 0 3 1 3 7

$150,000-200,000 0 0 1 1 4 6

$200,000+ 0 0 0 4 5 9

Total 877 304 110 93 112 1,496

Current Year Estimates - 2011

Renter Households

Age 55+ Years

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nu

mb

er

Ho

us

eh

old

s

Below 30%

AMI

30% to 50%

AMI

50% to 80%

AMI

Over 80% AMI

Total Eligible Renter Households Over 55 Years by

AMI Level

Case Study – Income-Eligible Senior Renters 55+ Years

-

100

200

300

400

500

600



Eligible Households by Size and AMI Level - 55+ Years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1-Per

son

2-Per

son

3-Per

son

4-Per

son

5+-P

erso

n

Perc

en

t o

f T

ota

l E

lig

ible

Ho

us

eh

old

s

<30% AMI

30% - 50% AMI

50% - 80% AMI

80%+ AMI




$0-10,000 5 1 3 0 -1 8

$10,000-20,000 -2 1 0 1 0 0

$20,000-30,000 11 1 0 -2 5 15

$30,000-40,000 0 5 7 5 4 21

$40,000-50,000 2 5 4 1 0 12

$50,000-60,000 -1 2 0 0 0 1

$60,000-75,000 0 0 0 2 0 2

$75,000-100,000 0 0 1 0 9 10

$100,000-125,000 -1 0 1 0 0 0

$125,000-150,000 0 1 1 1 1 4

$150,000-200,000 1 0 -1 0 1 1

$200,000+ 0 1 0 -2 -1 -2

Total 15 17 16 6 18 72

Five Year Projections - 2011 to 2016

Change in Renter Households

Age 55+ Years

Case Study – Projected Change Senior Renters 55+ Years

Projections?

Is it good practice to rely on projections to

calculate demand?

• These numbers are recent trends projected forward

- how much do changing market conditions impact

their reliability?

• Redevelopment and introduction of new housing units

can reverse population loss trends in cities and

neighborhoods where poor housing contributes to those

losses.

Contact Us

Ribbon Demographics, LLC

916-880-1644

www.ribbondata.com

[email protected]

http://www.ribbondata.com/

mailto:[email protected]

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