Haydock Sprint Cup & Old

Borough Cup

Trends & Pedigree

Analysing the 2014 Haydock

Sprint Cup & Old Borough Cup

from an alternative viewpoint

Guide by Badly Drawn Horse

www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk

Old Borough Cup (Class 2 Handicap)

6th

September – 3:15

Haydock

Old Borough Cup: Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 9 winners of the Old Borough Cup so

that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Old Borough Cup Trends

1 9/9 had an OR of 90 - 101

2 9/9 had won over at least 12f

3 9/9 were IRE or GB bred

4 8/9 had recorded a top 3 finish on 1 of their last 3 starts

5 8/9 had no more than 18 previous career starts

6 8/9 ran in class 2 or 3 handicap last time out

7 7/9 were aged 3, 4 or 5

8 7/9 carried 9-3 or less to victoy

9 7/9 were drawn in stall 8 or higher

10 7/9 recorded a top 4 finish last time out

11 7/9 had 2, 3 or 4 previous career victories

12 7/9 had between 1 & 3 previous handicap victories

2014 Old Borough Cup Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 9 winners of the old Borough Cup to

this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot

GLENARD Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/12

HAVANA COOLER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 11/12

HASSLE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 11/12

EPSOM HILL Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 11/12

NAUTILUS Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y 10/12

QUEST FOR MORE N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 10/12

GOODWOOD MIRAGE Y N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y 9/12

NOVIRAK N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 9/12

ARAMIST N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N 9/12

BIG THUNDER Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N 8/12

COMMUNICATOR Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N N Y Y 8/12

SHREWD N Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y 8/12

EAGLE ROCK N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y 8/12

CHANCERY Y Y N N N Y N Y Y N Y Y 7/12

LADY KASHAAN N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N N 7/12

SAPTAPADI N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N N N 6/12

BE PERFECT N Y N Y N N Y Y N Y N Y 6/12

Trend Follower(s) – GLENARD

Old Borough Cup: Winners Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 9 winners of the Melrose Stakes and

applies them to this year’s entries.

*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree.

DP 9/9 had 8 points or more in their DP

7/9 had 16 points or more in their DP

DI 8/9 had a DI of 0.78 or above

7/9 had a DI of 0.88 or above

CD 8/9 had a CD of -0.13 or above

7/9 had a CD of 0.00 or above

DPA (6/9) - DQ - 2 / 20+ - 3 / PATB - 1

2014 Old Borough Cup Entries: Dosage Applied

Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –

Snug Fit

BE PERFECT 9-1-10-2-2 DQ 24 1.67 0.54

CHANCERY 7-1-9-1-2 PATB 20 1.67 0.50

SAPTAPADI 2-16-7-4-1 DQ 30 2.53 0.47

NOVIRAK 6-1-11-0-2 20+ 20 1.67 0.45

GOODWOOD MIRAGE 4-2-10-2-0 / 18 1.57 0.44

GLENARD 3-3-17-1-0 20+ 24 1.53 0.33

EAGLE ROCK 4-1-10-4-1 DQ 20 1.00 0.15

COMMUNICATOR 3-2-13-6-0 20+ 24 0.92 0.08

Can’t be discounted

SHREWD 3-1-8-0-0 / 12 2.00 0.58

ARAMIST 2-2-9-0-1 / 14 1.55 0.29

Not ideal

NAUTILUS 7-2-9-0-0 / 18 3.00 0.89

HAVANA COOLER 7-0-19-12-0 20+ 38 0.77 0.05

QUEST FOR MORE 3-1-11-7-0 20+ 22 0.76 0.00

LADY KASHAAN 2-1-12-4-1 DQ 20 0.82 -0.05

HASSLE 4-2-25-14-1 DQ 46 0.67 -0.13

Wide of the mark

BIG THUNDER 3-0-9-3-3 / 18 0.71 -0.17

EPSOM HILL 2-0-14-4-2 20+ 22 0.69 -0.18

2014 Old Borough Cup: Pace & Draw analysis

Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle –

There should be plenty enough pace on here with BE PERFECT, NAUTILUS and EAGLE

ROCK all potential front-runners. The vast majority of the field will be sitting out the back

waiting to pounce late.

Here is the how the past 9 winners of the race have run in the race –

Running Style fr-0 / cp-3 / hu-6

Draw Horse RS Running Style

1 COMMUNICATOR HU/CP HU/CP

2 NOVIRAK HU/CP HU/CP

3 QUEST FOR MORE CP/HU CP/HU

4 BE PERFECT FR/CP FR/CP

5 SHREWD CP/HU CP/HU

6 ARAMIST CP CP

7 NAUTILUS FR/CP FR/CP

8 CHANCERY HU HU

9 LADY KASHAAN CP/HU CP/HU

10 SAPTAPADI HU HU

11 EPSOM HILL CP CP

12 GOODWOOD MIRAGE HU HU

13 GLENARD CP CP

14 HASSLE HU/CP HU/CP

15 EAGLE ROCK CP/FR CP/FR

16 HAVANA COOLER HU HU

17 BIG THUNDER CP/HU CP/HU

HU CP FR

COMMUNICATOR

NOVIRAK

QUEST FOR MORE BE PERFECT

CHANCERY SHREWD ARAMIST NAUTILUS

SAPTAPADI LADY KASHAAN

GOODWOOD MIRAGE EPSOM HILL

HASSLE GLENARD

HAVANA COOLER BIG THUNDER EAGLE ROCK

Old Borough Cup Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13)

GLENARD – 13/13

HAVANA COOLER – 11/13 – Already a UT bet

HASSLE – 11/13

EPSOM HILL – 11/13

NAUTILUS – 10/13

QUEST FOR MORE – 10/13

Most likely winner

GLENARD (C Hills) – This improving 4-Y-O comes here off the back of a career best effort

at York and he looks to have a strong chance of continuing the progression here. Bar one

blip at Haydock earlier in the year he has been showing consistent form this term and he

looks worth another go at this 14f trip (previous form of 63 at trip). Ground will be fine for

him, he has a fine record at this class level (14581), runs well in 12+ runner fields (14581),

has solid form when returning within 15 days (2213) and has a strong Aug/Sept record

(11146).

Alternative(s)

EPSOM HILL (C Fellows) – This 3-Y-O is improving at a rate of knots and the 3-Y-O

allowance he gets here could make him a very dangerous proposition. This is another step

up in trip but he threatens to be even better over further and he is one I want on my side in

this.

Sprint Cup (Group 1)

6th

September – 3:50

Haydock

Sprint Cup: Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Sprint Cup so that

we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Sprint Cup Trends

1 14/15 had recorded a top 2 finish in current season

2 13/15 were aged 3 - 5

3 13/15 ran in a Group race LTO

4 12/15 recorded a top 3 finish LTO

5 12/15 started in the top 3 in the market LTO

6 11/15 had previously finished in the top 3 at Group 1 level

2014 Sprint Cup Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Sprint Cup to this

year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 Tot

ES QUE LOVE Y Y Y Y Y N 5/6

GORDON LORD BYRON Y N Y Y Y Y 5/6

MUSIC MASTER Y Y Y Y Y N 5/6

PEARL SECRET Y Y N Y Y Y 5/6

PROFESSOR Y Y Y Y Y N 5/6

SOLE POWER Y N Y Y Y Y 5/6

HOT STREAK Y Y Y N Y Y 5/6

TROPICS Y N N Y Y Y 4/6

ASTAIRE Y Y Y N N Y 4/6

COUGAR MOUNTAIN Y Y Y N Y N 4/6

EXTORTIONIST Y Y Y Y N N 4/6

BACCARAT Y Y N Y N N 3/6

MAAREK Y N Y N N Y 3/6

G FORCE Y Y Y N N N 3/6

MOVIESTA N Y Y N N N 2/6

CASPAR NETSCHER N Y N N N N 1/6

DINKUM DIAMOND Y N N N N N 1/6

Trend Follower(s) – ES QUE LOVE | GORDON LORD BYRON | MUSIC

MASTER | PEAL SECRET | PROFESSOR | SOLE POWER | HOT STREAK

Sprint Cup: Winners Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Sprint Cup and

applies them to this year’s entries.

*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree.

DP 14/15 had 12 points or more in their DP

12/15 had 16 points or more in their DP

DI 14/14 had a DI of 1.00 or above

12/14 had a DI of 1.26 or above

1/14 had a DI above 3.00

CD 13/14 had a CD of 0.06 or above

11/14 had a CD of 0.25 or above

1/14 had a CD above 0.75

DPA (10/15) - DQ - 4 / 20+ - 6 / PATB - 0

2014 Sprint Cup Entries: Dosage Applied

Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –

Snug Fit

PROFESSOR 4-3-9-0-0 / 16 2.56 0.69

MOVIESTA 4-9-17-0-0 20+ 30 2.53 0.57

GORDON LORD BYRON 3-3-10-0-0 / 16 2.20 0.56

COUGAR MOUNTAIN 6-4-19-1-0 20+ 30 1.86 0.50

G FORCE 3-2-11-0-0 / 16 1.91 0.50

HOT STREAK 4-2-14-0-0 20+ 20 1.86 0.50

Can’t be discounted

EXTORTIONIST 2-2-4-0-0 / 8 3.00 0.75

MAAREK 2-5-7-0-0 / 14 3.00 0.64

ES QUE LOVE 1-2-5-0-0 / 8 2.20 0.50

BACCARAT 1-1-5-1-0 / 8 1.29 0.25

MUSIC MASTER 2-1-7-2-0 / 12 1.18 0.25

ASTAIRE 0-2-10-0-0 / 12 1.40 0.17

Not ideal

SOLE POWER 4-0-4-0-0 / 8 3.00 1.00

PEARL SECRET 1-8-2-0-1 / 12 5.00 0.67

TROPICS 6-5-9-0-0 20+ 20 3.44 0.85

DINKUM DIAMOND 1-2-10-1-2 PATB 16 1.00 -0.06

Wide of the mark

CASPAR NETSCHER 2-0-8-4-0 / 14 0.75 0.00

2014 Sprint Cup: Pace & Draw analysis

Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle –

Lack of any real front-runners make this a tricky race to assess on a pace angle. ASTAIRE

may be the most likely to try and lead so that may just spin it in favour of the middle to low

stalls. HOT STREAK has also at times been a prominent runner and he could be another

that helps force it for the high numbers.

Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race –

Running Style fr-3 / cp-4 / hu-8

Draw Horse RS Running Style

1 DINKUM DIAMOND CP/HU CP/HU

2 CASPAR NETSCHER HU/CP HU/CP

3 MAAREK HU/CP HU/CP

4 BACCARAT CP/HU CP/HU

5 COUGAR MOUNTAIN CP/HU CP/HU

6 EXTORTIONIST HU/CP HU/CP

7 ES QUE LOVE CP CP

8 SOLE POWER HU HU

9 G FORCE HU/CP HU/CP

10 MOVIESTA HU/CP HU/CP

11 TROPICS CP/HU CP/HU

12 MUSIC MASTER CP/HU CP/HU

13 ASTAIRE FR/CP FR/CP

14 PROFESSOR HU/CP HU/CP

15 PEARL SECRET HU/CP HU/CP

16 HOT STREAK CP CP

17 GORDON LORD BYRON CP/HU CP/HU

HU CP FR

DINKUM DIAMOND

CASPAR NETSCHER

MAAREK BACCARAT

COUGAR MOUNTAIN

EXTORTIONIST ES QUE LOVE

SOLE POWER

G FORCE

MOVIESTA

TROPICS

MUSIC MASTER

PROFESSOR ASTAIRE

PEARL SECRET

HOT STREAK

GORDON LORD BYRON

Sprint Cup Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 8)

PROFESSOR – 7/8

GORDON LORD BYRON – 7/8

HOT STREAK – 7/8

COUGAR MOUNTAIN – 6/8

ES QUE LOVE – 6/8

Most likely winner

GORDON LORD BYRON (T Hogan) – The signs are that the 6-Y-O has had his season built

around a repeat bid at this and by my reckoning he has an excellent chance of grabbing

back to back Sprint Cups. We know he loves Haydock (1st & 2nd in last 2 renewals of this)

and 6f is spot on for him (5 career wins at the trip). He is adaptable with underfoot

conditions, is a triple G1 winner, 8 of his career wins have come on a flat track and jockey

Wayne Lordan has a superb record of 221112 on the beast. Add that to the fact 8 of his

career wins have come after a similar break of between 8 – 30 days and the horse has super

robust Aug/Sept/Oct form of 232512121311272 then we have a real live contender to take

down Sole Power. Given that there are questions marks over Sole Power staying the trip I

would expect GLB to press on early as he has winning form over 7f & 8f; he may well just

draw the sting out of the power!

Alternative(s)

HOT STREAK (K Ryan) – I’m not yet fully convinced that he doesn’t handle 6f and if he is going

to land a decent race at the trip it will be on a flat track like Haydock. He doesn’t have all

that much to find based on his Group 1 form this season and he is still young enough to

have improvement to make into a proper Group 1 player.

PROFESSOR (R Hannon) – If there is to be a shock in this then I think it will come from this

lad. I can’t quite fathom the jockey booking but Chris Hayes is a G1 winning jock and it’s

noticeable that he comes over here for the 1 ride. We know the horse likes Haydock (3 from

4 at track) and 6 furlongs (2 from 2 over C&D) and he does love coming late off big fields

(form of 1432 in 14+ fields). He has to step up a fair bit here but a big field blitz may allow

him to do just that.

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Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.

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