Harry S. Dent, Jr.Dent Research

Dent Business Academy

Business Strategies for the Winter Season

S-Curve and Product Life Cycles for

Business: Micro Seasons and Strategies

Session 4:

Charts

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19800

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Dent Research

Bias-ply Tires

Radial Tires10%

50%

90%

Radial Tire S-Curve

Chart 4-1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

1% 10%

50%

90% 99%

Innovation Maturity

.1%

99.9%

Growth

Perc

ent A

dopt

ion

The Automobile S-Curve

1900 1907 1914 1921 1928 1935 1942Cars only for

the RichModel T Design

Assembly Line

Installment Financing

90% Urban Adoption Chart 4-2

14 years

14 years

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

1% 10%

50%

90% 99%

Innovation Maturity

99.9%

Growth

Perc

ent A

dopt

ion

Cell Phone S-Curve

2008

2011

2005

2003

1996

19911984

1997

1999

1994

Chart 4-3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

1% 10%

50%

90% 99%

Innovation Maturity

.1%

99.9%

Growth

Res

ults

Consumer Adoption Curve

Opinion Leaders

Influentials

Early Majority

Late Majority

Laggards

Die-hards

Group CharacteristicsYoung, UrbanHigh income

Old, RuralLow income

Chart 4-4

S-Curve and Four Stages

Growth Boom

Shakeout

MaturityBoom

Innovation

10%

50%

90%

Chart 4-5

Drives 0%-10%

Mainstream

Four Stages / Four-Seasons

Innovation

(summer)

Growth Boom(fall)

Shakeout

(winter)

Maturity Boom

(spring)

Different Strategies for Each Stage

Bain Strategy Matrix

Source: Dent Research Chart 4-6

Innovation Stage

Race for Leadership

Dominate Industry

Purge

Summary Principles for Product Strategies

Chart 4-7

Innovation Season

• Invest in question marks or new products in niche markets

• Look for those that make it to the 10% tipping point

Growth Boom • Build systems for growth• Expanded distribution for the stars in the 10% to 40%

growth phase

Shakeout Stage • Get mean and lean• Gain market share at expense of competitors that are

failing as the product moves into the 40% to 60% stage

Maturity Boom • Continue to build or maintain market share• Harvest cash from dominant positions or “cash cows”

in the 60% to 90%+ stage

Decline Stage • Be the low cost and volume leader• Gain share at expense of competitors as in the earlier

shakeout stage