haripur npp project
TRANSCRIPT
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A COST BENEFIT
ANALYSIS
HARIPUR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
The idea that the growing demand for energy worldwide can be met with energy
from nuclear power
Submitted by- GROUP 1
ABHISHEK KU. GAUTAM-14CE10001
ADITYA PARIK-14CE10002 AMIT RAJ KUMAR-14CE10005
AMIT SAHOO-14CE10006 ANUKUL JHA-14CE10007
ASHISH YADAV-14CE10009 ASHWANI KUMAR-14CE10010
BHIM SINGH-14CE10011
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ABSTRACT
Energy is the backbone of development. For any developing country like India,
meeting its energy requirements efficiently has always been a challenging task.
Moreover, dependence on imported fossil fuels also causes insecurity of energy
supply. To meet the growing energy demands the government needs to take
some major steps in the energy sector. Nuclear power plants are of primary
focus in order to meet the energy demands because of the vast amount of energy
which can be harnessed from the nuclear power plants if used with proper
precautions.
Keeping in mind the energy sector of India, this report gives an cost benefit
analysis of Haripur Nuclear power plant which was proposed in 2006 but was
not completed due to public opposition. Various costs and benefits were
identified and were analyzed on the basis of their NPVs. The result of the
analysis shows that the nuclear power plant would be beneficial in most of the
cases and would result in the increased welfare of the Indian society. Apart from
various direct benefits like energy and employment, it also has various
environmental advantages associated with it.
However, due to various risks and some serious disadvantages, exact degree of
welfare can‟t be predicted on the basis of cost benefit analysis. The government
as well as the concerned organization should be well aware of the accidental
risks as well as terrorist risk.
But it is clear that with prior planning and precautions, Nuclear power plants
would result in increased welfare of the society.
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Table of contents
Abbreviations____________________________________________________3
1. Introduction___________________________________________________4
1.1. Problem statement___________________________________________4
1.2. Methodology_______________________________________________4
2. Energy sector__________________________________________________5
2.1. General characteristics________________________________________5
2.2. Indian energy sector_________________________________________7
2.3. Characteristics of nuclear power energy__________________________8
3. Analysis_____________________________________________________11
3.1. Project description__________________________________________11
3.2. Factors to consider in developing a NPP_________________________13
3.3. Methodology of accessing cost benefit analysis___________________16
3.4. Cost analysis______________________________________________17
3.5. Benefit analysis____________________________________________23
3.6. Final cost benefit analysis_ ___________________________________27
4. Recommendation______________________________________________28
5. Conclusion___________________________________________________28
6. Sources______________________________________________________29
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Abbreviations
NPV = Net Present Value
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
CO₂ = Carbon dioxide
NO = Nitric oxide
SO₂ = sulfur dioxide
U-233 = Uranium-233
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
approx. = approximately
sq. = square
km = kilometer
MWe = Mega Watt electric
Wh = Watt hour
kWh = kilo Watt hour
MWh = Mega Watt hour
GWh = Giga Watt hour
NPCIL = Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited
CIL = Coal India Limited
USA = United States of America
TAPS = Tarapur Atomic Power Station
KGS = Kaiga Generating Station
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1. Introduction
The primary objective of energy policy of the government is to meet the various
energy requirements of the industries as well as of the citizens efficiently. In
order meet the demand of sustainable development and to control the pollution
level, alternative source of energies must be considered. In the search of
potential alternative source, the major focus always lies upon nuclear energy.
According to various survey results, In most industrially developed countries,
Nuclear power plants are most economically efficient way of producing energy.
This is in turn makes the nuclear power plants a major part of the economy. The
report tries to analyze the various costs and benefits associated with a particular
proposed nuclear power plant at Haripur, West Bengal. Although the project
was stopped due to various public oppositions, the report proves the plant is
economically beneficial. The report thus gives a detailed insight into the project.
1.1. Problem Statement
The main goal of the report is to perform a cost benefit analysis of the Haripur
Nuclear power Plant which was started in 2006 but did not materialize and the
plan is currently suspended. The approach is generally economic but the report
tries to summarize the overall impact of the project on the society.
1.2. Methodology
In order to analyze the various costs and benefits, first the cost and benefits
were identified and listed. Then various data of existing nuclear power plants
were collected from sources like articles, websites, newspapers etc. and the
costs and benefits were monetized. The various coats were also compared with
the costs of existing methods of energy generation like use of coal and fossil
fuels. Accidental risks were also taken into account in the analysis. The sources
of all the data taken into account are mentioned in the report.
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2. Energy Sector
2.1. General Characteristics
Most of today‟s societies are extremely dependent on energy and electricity.
There are two primary energy sources: non-renewable fossil fuels and
renewable. Climate change concerns, high oil prices, fear of shortages of fossil
fuels, large subsidies for fossil fuels and increasing government support towards
clean energy drive renewable energy legislation and incentives. In this part of
the paper, the stress was put on nuclear energy and fossil fuels because both of
them were relevant for the analysis.
Renewable sources come from natural resources which are easy to replenish
such as sun, wind, water, geothermal heat, and biomass. They are sustainable
which means that the needs of the current population are satisfied without
endangering needs‟ satisfaction of the future society. Renewable energy is
experiencing a continued to grow in all end-use sectors (power, heat and
transport)
Nuclear power is considered a clean energy because it does not pollute the
environment in the way fossil fuels do. However, the fuel (uranium in most
cases or thorium) is not renewable, extraction diminishes its deposits inside the
Earths. The crucial problems with NPPs are the breakdowns, leakages or
meltdowns. In the most recent one, in 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquakes and
the consequent tsunami triggered meltdowns in three reactors at Tokyo Electric
Power‟s Fukushima Daiichi NPP (Pernick R., Wilder C., Winnie T., 2012).
Although they were brought under control, the accident made an impact on the
nuclear energy future because people became even more unwilling towards it.
Currently, Japan is taking steps to change course toward renewable energy
production. In Europe, for example Germany or Belgium shut down their
reactors.
Fossil fuel sources are coal, lignite, petroleum or gas, which are the remains of
the decomposition of plants and animals millions years ago. The most important
problem with these energy sources is the greenhouse gas and other pollutant,
like e.g. dust emission. One of the key characteristics of this sector is also
unjustified in most cases by government subsidies. Generally regardless of the
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energy sources, the sector is characterized by significant fluctuations in energy
prices, growing demand for energy from developing countries, striving for
efficiency both in production and usage, major system failures, and rising
pollution of the environment. Due to these features, a new approach to energy
policy was required, so the EU set targets for environmental commitments.
There is the need to diversify energy sources and the need for new investment
replacing depreciated power system so that it will not be environmentally
harmful (meaning minimum emissions of CO₂, NOx, SxOy, dust and metal).
(Source: 2a)
NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE (VARIOUS PROCESSES SHOWN)
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Source: (Google images: http://pixshark.com/nuclear-energy-graphs.htm)
2.2. Indian Energy Sector and NPP
Nuclear Power in India
Nuclear energy is the fourth largest source of energy for India. India has a
flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power program and expects to have a
nuclear capacity of 14,600 MWe on line by 2020. It aims to supply 25% of
electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
At 5% growth in power demand, the country can sustain with coal reserve for
not more than 45 years.
India's plans of becoming Energy independent by a chain of three stage
conversion of Thorium to U233 and eventually Electricity. If India does succeed
in it, India won't require importing enriched Uranium 235 from other countries
India has 21 nuclear reactors in operation in 7 nuclear power plants, having an
installed capacity of 5780 MW and producing a total of 30,292.91 GWh of
electricity while 6 more reactors are under construction and are expected to
generate an additional 4,300 MW. India has a total of 16 operational plants with
a capacity to generate around 3,900 MW, which is about 2.8% of the total
electricity generated.
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(Source: 2b)
(Source: www.moef.nic.in)
2.3. Characteristics of Nuclear Energy
Nuclear physics is very technical, but the basic process for producing electricity
with nuclear power is as follows:
The reactor core produces heat and radioactivity in a process called fission,
commonly known as atom-splitting. Inside the reactor core is uranium nuclear
fuel
Energy is generated when U-235 in a critical amount undergoes fission. When a
U-235 atom is struck by a neutron, it breaks into fragments known as fission
products (consisting of other atoms near the middle of the table of atomic
numbers) and also releases neutrons which strike other U-235 atoms, thereby
maintaining a chain reaction.
Each event of fission releases about 200-million electron volts (2c) of heat which
can be used to drive a steam power plant.
The heat from controlled fission reactions is used to produce steam from water,
either directly as in the boiling water reactor (BWR), or indirectly as in the
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pressurized water reactor (PWR), which contains a steam generator. The steam
drives a turbine that powers a generator. The generator produces electricity that
is distributed to the power grid.
There are objections to the sole use of U-235 because of its scarcity and the
large amounts of energy required to separate it from U-238. Much importance is
attached to converting other materials, U-238 and Th-232, into fissionable
materials by means of the breeder reaction. In such a case, the neutrons from the
fission of U-235 are used to cause a radioactive transformation of U-238 or Th-
232 to Pu-239 or U-233 respectively, which are then fissionable.
It is worth noting here that NPPs need much less fuel than the coal-fuel plants,
one pound of U-235 is equivalent to 1400 tons of coal in its energy production,
the fission of 1 gram of U-235 releases 2.28 x 104 kWh of heat, which is
equivalent to the heat of combustion of 3 tons of coal (Hubbert, 2006).
Is Nuclear Power “Greener” Than Traditional Energy Sources Such As
Fossil Fuels?
There is a good deal of debate on this issue. One advantage of nuclear energy
production is that it generates very few (or no) harmful greenhouse gases.
Additionally, nuclear energy doesn‟t produce two of the harmful chemicals
responsible for acid rain – sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
Not dependent on WEATHER: Another advantage to nuclear energy is that it
is not contingent upon weather or other external factors. This gives nuclear
energy a leg up over many other types of renewable energy such as solar, wind,
or wave power, whose production is often governed by weather patterns,
amount of sunlight, etc.
Nuclear energy production, however, still involves the mining of uranium,
building of power plants, and other processes that do produce harmful carbon
emissions. Additionally, nuclear energy does not generate nearly as much
energy/heat as does the burning of traditional fossil fuels. Nuclear power plants
also tend to be wildly expensive.
Fear Factor: Final factor to take into consideration is the safety of nuclear
power plants. Though there is always a “fear factor” involved in anything
containing the word “nuclear,” it is important to note that, as technologies and
safety precautions improve, serious nuclear power plant incidents are
increasingly rare.(Source: 2d)
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(Source: NPCIL)
Will nuclear energy be a viable source of renewable energy in the coming
years? The answer at the moment appears to be “time will tell.”
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3. Analysis
In the following chapter we are going to discuss cost benefits analysis. Which
will help us to know Haripur power plant will build or not economically.
3.1. Project Description
In 2006 government of India signed an agreement with Russian government for
setting out five nuclear power plants in country. Department of atomic energy
started searching about the suitable sites for the nuclear power plants they
visited number of places in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Orissa and west Bengal.
Haripur in west Bengal was selected as one of the suitable site. Different types
of tests were conducted on the soil of Haripur, geographic data was collected,
flood data was collected and other water facilities were examined there.
Russian company Rosatom had taken the project of development of nuclear
power plant. It was reported that power plant will have six nuclear reactors with
maximum capacity of 1650MW hence approximately 10000MW of electricity
output was expected from this nuclear plant. West Bengal government had
decided to acquire 1013 acres (3.6 sq. km) of land area of Haripur and this land
was primarily used by poor farmers for agricultural and fishing uses.
3.1.1. Background and Conflict
Haripur was finalized for the suitable site for the nuclear power plant. Local
villagers and some other social and environmental activists started raising their
voice against the nuclear power plant. In November 2006 officers from
department of nuclear energy and local administrative were stopped by the
protestors .They were not allowed to enter the Haripur village. Slowly that
protest was converting into a violent protest. Finally after a long protest
Government of west Bengal refused permission to a proposed 10,000MW
nuclear power plant in 2011.
3.1.2. Site of the NPP and its use
Haripur is under the Magilaput gram panchayat contained in sub division of
Purba Medinapur which is a district of west Bengal and it occupies 6 km sq.
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area. It is 156 km from the Kolkata and 30 km from the Haldia port. Its
geographical location lies in between 21°41.964′ N to 21°43.232′N latitude and
87°45.845′E to 87°48.884′E longitude. Haripur falls in Contai sub division and
The Contai Municipality has population of 92,226 of which 49,031 are males
while 43,195 are females as per report released by Census India 2011 around
80,000 people will be affected by the formation of plant also area near Haripur
is also very populated as contain municipality has population around 1 lakh.
(Source: 3a)
3.1.3. Ecology of Haripur
The southern part of Haripur is richer with 6 types of mangroves and mangrove
associated 6 marshy species. The northern eastern and western part of Haripur
contain various types of mesophytes(plant need moderate water),
hydrophytes(plants grow inside the water) and xerophytes(can survive in very
less water).simultaneous growth of these plants in a area is very rare because
they all need different conditions, which indicates that Haripur is very rich in
plant diversity. About 286 angiosperm species under 218 generations and 77
families of different economic purposes have been investigated from Haripur.
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3.1.4. Livelihood of local people
People of Haripur are primarily dependent on agriculture and fishing. Apart
from agricultural uses large area is also used for dry fish farms.
The workers are involved with carrying, selling, sorting, drying, weighing,
packing, storing and transporting dried fish. This area gives very large revenue
from fishing. There are salt factories along the seaside near Haripur. Some
people are engaged in this work.
Our main motive of doing the project is that judge the every condition in
different situation.
There are certain basic conditions that must be compiled while designing
nuclear power plant example in terms of nuclear safety and radiological
protection of safe operation. Any project should be take account the need to
ensure safety protection during construction, commissioning, operation,
including repair, upgrading, decommissioning of the facility as well as in the
event of an accident.
(Source: 3a)
3.2. Factors to consider in developing a NPP
Source: NPCIL
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In developing a nuclear power plant, different economic and environmental
aspects are kept in mind, these are:
3.2.1. Low local population
Haripur is very populated and the area near the Haripur is also very populated as
we have seen about contain town which is very close to Haripur. It was
estimated that around 80 thousand people will be affected by this power plant.
3.2.2. Low air traffic
There are significant air traffic above the Haripur or nearby areas but this traffic
can be controlled or its route can be shifted.
(Source: http://www.mapsofindia.com/ )
3.2.3. Proximity of Seismic zones
Haripur falls in the zone 4 of the seismic this zone is called high damage risk
zone from this point of view nuclear power plant should not be installed there
otherwise it may lead to the Fukushima Daiichi kind of accidents.
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(Source:http://www.dianuke.org/statement-demanding-the-scrapping-of-nuclear-power-plants-in-
india-pbkms/ )
Favorable geology for foundation stability: Stability conditions and favorable
conditions of soil are the basic of the any structure. From the government data it
is clear that land is suitable for the nuclear power plant formation.
3.2.4. Low probability of tsunamis and flooding:
This area falls in very low tsunami probability range
(source: http://wbdmd.gov.in/Pages/Tsunami_Mapping.aspx )
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3.2.5. Low Environmental Loss
Haripur is rich in plant diversity. From the statistical data, it was found that
Haripur has 286 types of angiosperm species. Out of 286 species, 29 species
are purely aquatic, 44 species are marshy of which 6 species are
mangroves and the rest 113 species are terrestrial. Hence, nuclear power plant
formation will completely destroy the diversity.
(Source: 3b)
3.3. Methodology of assessing costs and benefits
For the Cost benefit analysis of any project, it is important to make it clear
whose cost and benefits are going to be considered. The costs and benefits can
be considered for the local people, or the state population or the nation. The
costs could also have been considered with respect to the Government. But this
would have been unreasonable as the Government need not make profits. It‟s
the citizens‟ profits that the government needs to take care of.
In this cost benefit analysis we will take the costs and benefits of the Indian
citizens as a whole. However, naturally most of these will converge to the
citizens in and around Haripur (or we can say West Bengal).
All the capital costs and the operational and maintenance costs will obviously
be affecting all the citizens of India as it is the tax payer who is eventually going
to spend money on the NPP. However, some costs like the loss of livelihood of
the people of Haripur is not a national level cost. However in the end all the
costs are on the citizens. It should be noted that the costs of building extra
infrastructure to create roads for transport to the NPP, the power distribution
stations, etc. are not considered in the cost benefit analysis as they are indirect
costs of the plant and they provide their own benefits and costs themselves. Another aspect of any cost benefit analysis is deciding the timeline of the
analysis. In our analysis we are going to take one year as the time period to
assess all the costs and benefits. The reason for taking a year as the timescale is
because of the variable nature of all the parameters like tariffs, tax rates, money
value, etc. Predicting the future value of these parameters and then using it to
base the whole project can be a risky treatment of the case. Further it has been
found through various researches that a project which is feasible for a year with
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known real life values of the parameters will generally remain feasible in the
future.
In every CBA, the capital investment and the return of the investment differ by
a significant time. Due to this the value of the money will change significantly.
So whatever return we get in the future as promised to us today will have a
lower value in the future than it had today. However in case of a nuclear plant,
the returns (like taxes, salaries of employees, tariffs, etc.) are not fixed and they
too increase numerically with time to maintain their value. So we can shift all
the benefits to today‟s time and use their present values to do the analysis, even
though in reality we will get the benefits after many years. Naturally the
question will arise in the minds of the reader about how the one-time costs will
be incorporated into the analysis. We remedy this by dividing the one-time costs
throughout the life of the NPP.
Benefits like the development of the area around NPP are variable benefits
which takes significant amount of time to reach their peak and also depend on
the location of the plant. Thus it cannot be predicted from previous data. Hence
we are not going to include it in our analysis.
One more benefit which can be quite significant but also quite variable is the
security of supply that nuclear power provides. The fluctuations in coal prices
can lead to quite drastic effects on the GDP of a nation. However, similar
fluctuations in prices of nuclear fuels has very little effect on the production and
hence the GDP. Thus by preventing GDP to fall, nuclear power provides a lot of
monetary benefit. However, fluctuation in the cost of fossil fuels is very
unpredictable and thus monetary benefit from security of supply is
unpredictable too.
3.4. Cost analysis
3.4.1. Pre development cost
Land: according to NPCIL, every reactor needs a land of 2 sq km area. In
other hand as we know nuclear power plant radiate radioactive substance
which effect on human cell for preservation of human cell and its bad effect
upon human a buffer zone is considered theoretically the circular region of
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radius 1.6 km is minimum requirement.
Total effected area (including buffer zone)=area of buffer zone + area occupied by reactor By assuming area as a circular,
Total area = 2*6+22/7*((1.6+1.9)^2-1.9^2)=39 sq. km
Displacement cost: As we know the population density of that particular region
is 1100 people per sq. km.
Total no of people required to displace = 1100*39 = 42900 people (3c)
If Rs. 50000 is provided as compensation to these people, then
Total displacement cost = 42900*50000 = Rs. 2145 million .
This displacement cost is a onetime cost and so has to be normalized for a
year. We do this by distributing this cost throughout the lifetime of the plant
which is taken as 40 years (for more info, see ref.).
So normalized displacement cost for a year = 2145/40 = Rs 53.6 million.
Deforestation: For construction of one nuclear reactor we need 2 sq km so we need to cut the tree of that particular reason. Assuming total number of tree
in one sq km area is 1000 trees and benefits by each tree including fruits, wood
and oxygen is in a whole year is about Rs 10000
Total loss = 6*2*1000*10000 = Rs 120 million.
Agriculture: a total of 1013 hectare agriculture land (3c) will be affected by nuclear reactor including buffer zone.
According to a farmer One hectare land give us a average benefits of Rs 25000. total loss= 1013*25000 =Rs 25.3 million.
Fishing: The region in which we are going to construct the nuclear reactor containing some part of fishing land. There are many people living in that
particular area directly dependent on fishing as a business he earn money by
fishing and use this money for other daily need things .The reason that khoti is
famous for fishing business fully belongs to that particular reason that‟s why it
will get damage due to construction of nuclear power plant.
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Over that particular region, 4800 people (3c) get directly income from
fishing business.
In fishing season (September to February), every member earns an average
income or Rs. 2000 per month and in other months Rs. 1000 per month. (3c)
Total loss to the people = 4800*{2000*6+1000*6} = Rs 86.4 million.
Hence total Pre development cost = Rs. (53.6+120+25.3+86.4) millions
= Rs. 285.3 millions.
3.4.2. Construction cost: Total expected capacity of Haripur nuclear reactor is 10000 MW. Construction cost is $5339/kW. (3d)
Construction cost = 10000*1000*5339*60 = Rs 3203 billion.
This construction cost too is a onetime cost and hence needs to be
normalized in a similar way as before. The expected life of a NPP = 40 years. (3e)
Hence normalized construction cost = 3203/40 = 80.1 billion = 80100 million.
Hence the total capital invested in the concerned plant is
= Pre development cost + normalized construction cost
=285.3 + 80100
= 80385.3 million
3.4.3. Operating & maintenance cost
It is the total cost during operation of nuclear power plant it includes fuel,
maintenance cost management cost etc.
Fuel cost : We use uranium as a fuel in nuclear reactor. The capacity of Haripur nuclear power plant is 10000 MW. 1 kg of uranium gives 360
MWh electricity. Total cost of 1 kg uranium is $1880. (3d)
Fuel cost = 10000*365*24*1880*60/360 = Rs 27.4 billion.
Maintenance & waste management: Nuclear power plant produces different kinds of nuclear waste during
operation. Waste characteristics depend on the reactor type, but the common
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need for operator is the optimization of waste quantity and type. We can help
to significantly reduce the waste volumes and waste management costs at
nuclear power plants by optimizing the whole process from waste collection to
final disposal. We also provide services to assess long term safety for nuclear
waste in geological repositories. Maintenance cost is the annual cost associated
with the operation, maintenance, administration, and support of a nuclear
power plant. Included are costs related to labor, material & supplies, contractor
services, licensing fees, and miscellaneous costs such as employee expenses
and regulatory fees.
These costs are together represented as $11.8/MWh. (3f)
Hence total such costs = 10000*24*365*11.8*60 = Rs. 62 billion.
3.4.4. Decommissioning cost:
Nuclear decommissioning is the process whereby a nuclear power plant site is
dismantled to the point that it is no longer requires measures for radiation
protection. The presence of radioactive material is dangerous hazard to natural
environment, time-intensive.
Decommissioning is an administrative and technical process. It includes clean-
up of radioactive material and progressive demolition of the plant. Generally
process is done once in a year. Once a facility is fully decommissioning, no
radiologic danger should persist.
Decommissioning costs are estimated to be 0.1 US cents / kWh (3f)
= Rs. 0.065/kWh.
Hence decommissioning costs for one year
= 0.065 * 10000 * 1000 * 365 * 24
=Rs. 5694 million.
3.4.5. Nuclear accidents:
It includes leakage of radioactive material, refueling accident, fire, earthquake
etc. Nuclear accident is a very dangerous factor which creates effect on human
environment. Probability of nuclear accident is very low but it is very harmful.
For dealing with nuclear accident we are going through the previous all accident
of whole India. Some of them are given below:
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Nuclear power accidents in India (3g)
Cost
Date Location Description
Fatalitie
s (in millions
2006 US$)
Operators at
the Tarapur atomic 78
power station find The on line hours of unit
that the reactor had
1&2 in 1990 were 7772
10 Sep
Tarapur,
been leaking
and 7827 hrs (source IAEA
Maharashtra,
radioactive iodine at
0
1989
PRIS. Repairs lasting more
India
more than 700 times
than one year from 10 Sep
normal levels.
1989 can not yield such on
Repairs to the reactor
line hours. surely
take more than a
something is wrong.
Year
Fast Breeder Test
Reactor at
4 May
Kalpakkam,
Kalpakkamrefuelling
accident that
0
300
1987
India
ruptures the reactor
core, resulting in a
two-year shutdown
Almost 100 kg
radioactive sodium at
a fast breeder reactor
22 Oct Kalpakkam, leaks into a 0
30
2002
India
purification cabin,
ruining a number of
valves and operating
systems
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2 Feb Kota, The Kota atomic N/A 280
Above data of previous 52 years shows the total losses by nuclear power plant
accident is Rs 54600 million.
Total losses per year = Rs 1050 million.
Cost
Date Location Description
Fatalitie
s (in millions
2006 US$)
1995 Rajasthan, power station leaks
India radioactive helium
and heavy water into
the Ranapratapsagar
river , necessitating a
two-year shutdown
for repairs
The Narora atomic
power station suffers 220 The cost data is not on
Bulandshahr,
a fire at two of its
31
comparable basis. 2400 or
Uttar
steam turbine blades,
Mar
0
so US 2006 dollars for
TMI
Pradesh,
damaging the heavy
1993
and 220 for NAPS unit 1 is
India
water reactor and
wrong.
almost leading to a
meltdown
A malfunctioning
13
Tarapur,
tube causes the
Tarapur Atomic
2
May
Maharashtra,
0
Power Station to
1992
India
release 12 curies of
radioactivity
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3.5. Benefit Analysis
NOTE: For all power related calculations, a capacity factor of 0.83 (for year
2014) is being taken as quoted in an article "Nuclear Power in India" of World
Nuclear Association website (3h).
3.5.1. Environmental benefits
Nuclear power generation is a very clean source of energy and it generates
almost no greenhouse gases. Further the electricity generated by it saves large
amount of fossil fuels like coal and natural gas used up in the same amount of
electricity generation.
Fossil Fuel Savings
The fossil fuel which is facing depletion to the highest level is coal and so we
can safely assume that all the energy produced by the plant is replacing
equivalent coal quantity.
All India specific coal consumption in thermal power stations during 2009-10
was 0.75 kg/KWh generated. (3i)
The full capacity power generated by Haripur Nuclear Power Plant is
10000MW.
To generate the capacity factor reduced amount of energy in a year, amount of
coal required would be 0.83*10000 *1000 KW*24 hrs*365*0.75= 54531
million Kg=54531 kilotons.
Average Cost of 1 ton of coal as provided by CIL is Rs. 1400. (3j)
Hence money saved in buying 5453 kilotons of coal is 1400*5453*1000=Rs.
76342 millions.
Note that we are not subtracting nuclear fuel here as it has already been
considered in cost analysis and so will eventually get eliminated from the cost of
coal.
Thus Economic Output of plant through coal savings= Rs. 76342 millions.
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Almost zero emissions of greenhouse gases
As of 2010, India average emission (3i) from a coal powered power plant of
various greenhouse gases are as follows:
CO₂: 0.94 kg/kWhr SO₂: 3.84 kg/kWhr
NO: 0.004 kg/kWhr
Hence due to a coal powered power plant of 10000 MW, the respective
emissions are as follows:
CO₂ = 0.94 kg/kWh * 0.83 * 10000*1000 kW * 24 * 365 hr.
= 68346 kilotons.
SO₂ = 3.84 kg/kWh * 0.83 * 10000*1000 kW * 24 * 365 hrs
= 279198 kilotons.
NO = 0.004 kg/kWh *0.83 * 10000*1000 kW * 24 * 365 hrs
= 291 kilotons.
From the amount of CO₂, SO₂ and NO emitted, we can understand the positive
impact that replacing some part of coal power usage with nuclear fuel has.
Although in many countries, carbon credits are used as a way to give a cost to
CO₂, carbon tax is used in India.
Hence CO₂ emissions will be monetized using the carbon tax levied by
Government of India. This tax is applied on CO₂ producing fossil fuels which in
turn increases their prices when bought. This in turn acts as a discouragement to
overuse of fossil fuels which are quickly depleting and also leading to climate
change. The current carbon cess (tax) as declared in the Indian Budget 2015-
2016 ₹ 200/ ton (3k) of coal used. This is converted to carbon tax on CO₂ using
the CO₂ emissions equivalent factor (3k) which is 1.782 (ton CO₂/ton of coal
used). Thus ₹ 200 is cost of 1.782 ton of CO₂.
Thus cost of 1 ton of CO₂ comes out to be ₹ 112.
So cost of emission of 68346 kilotons of CO₂= ₹ 112 *1000*68346
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= ₹ 7654 million.
Similar to carbon tax, certain emission allowances are applied on SO₂ and NO
emissions. Till 2008, these emissions had a very high allowance price per short
ton (more than $500 per short ton). However due to improvements in efficiency
in energy extractions, the quantity of these emissions have reduced manifold and
thus the allowance prices have fallen down too.
Their values are fairly constant now and are as follows (as of 2011):
SO₂ = $2.12 = ₹ 137 per short ton (3l)
NO = $15.89 = ₹ 1029 per short ton (3l)
1 ton = 1.10 short ton.
Hence cost of emissions of 279198 kilotons of SO₂
= 279198 * 1000 * 137 * 1.10 = ₹ 42075 million.
Hence cost of emissions of 291 kilotons of NO
= 291 * 1000 * 1029 * 1.10 = ₹ 329 million.
Hence total economic Output by the plant through Greenhouse emission Control
is ₹ 50058 million.
3.5.2. Employment Benefits
Lots of employment avenues open up due to a nuclear plant. During the
construction phase even as much as 3500 jobs are created during peak
construction times.
When a nuclear plant of 10000 MW capacities is functioning fully,
approximately 5000 core plant permanent jobs are created. Also for the
operation and maintenance of the plant, various other jobs for transportation of
raw materials and other needs are created. The number of these jobs is estimated
to be three jobs for each core job (3m).
The total plant jobs created are estimated using a simple factor decided by the
analysis of Harker and Hirschboeck (3m). This factor is 0.5 Jobs/MW.
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The plant we are concerned with has a capacity of 10000 MW and so the
number of jobs it creates is 5000.
There are 15000 indirect jobs created due to the 5000 plant jobs.
Now due to lack of average salaries of other local jobs, we are going to assume
its average being equal to average of permanent in-plant jobs.
Average salary in the plant = 300000 per annum (approx.) (3n) =Average salary
of other local jobs.
Economic Output of the plant through salaries = 20000*300000= ₹ 6000
million.
3.5.3. Electricity Generation
"The tariff of electricity as of 2012 generated by nuclear power per unit ranges
from 94 paise per KWh in case of the first nuclear power station (TAPS 1&2 at
Tarapur in Maharashtra) to 304 paise per KWh in case of the latest station (KGS
3&4 at Kaiga in Karnataka)."
-- Government of India: DAE- Lok Sabha Unstarred question 5724 (3o)
Now for our current calculations let us take the average tariff of electricity as
standard for a year. So tariff is taken as 199 paise.
Electricity generated in kWh in a year
= 0.83 * 10000 * 1000 kW * 24 hrs * 365 = 72708 million kWh
Hence plant‟s economic output from tariff of electricity
= 72708 million kWh * 1.99/kWh = ₹ 144688 million.
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3.6 Final Cost Benefit Analysis
COST BENEFIT
(All figures in million rupees ) (All figures in million rupees )
1. Pre development cost : 1. Environmental Benefits :
a. 53.6 for displacement+ 120 a. Fossil Fuel Saving : 76342
for deforestation +25.3 for b. Greenhouse (CO₂) Emission
agricultural losses + 86.4 control : 50058 million
for fishing losses =285.3
b. Construction Cost : 80100
Total capital cost = 80385.3
2. Operation Cost : 2. Employment Generation :
a. Fuel : 27400 6000
b. Maintenance & Waste :
62000
3. Decommissioning : 5694 3. Electricity Generation : 144688
4. Nuclear accident losses :
1050
Total : Rs 176529.3 million Total : Rs 200746 million
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4. Recommendation
The given figures indicate that the establishment of nuclear power plant is
economically as well as environmentally very profitable if proper measures are
taken to prevent any possible accident.
Nuclear power plants have become integral part of the economy and growing
energy needs and need of sustainable development are paving the way for
establishment of more nuclear power plants throughout the world.
5: Conclusion
With the day by day increasing demand for energy, it is required to take measures
to meet the energy needs for the increasing population. Nuclear energy if used
properly can easily fulfill all the energy needs of the humans without any
significant damage to the environment. Government„s energy policy should put
emphasis on promoting competition to make energy market more efficient.
Nuclear energy might provide clean and competitive energy future all over the
world. Moreover if the energy and climate strategies are integrated, this would
reinforce the idea of sustainable development.
In the report various advantages and disadvantages are mentioned and monetary
value of some of them is used for the cost benefit analysis. In the cost, various
failure chances with their probabilities are used for quantification.
Since there can be other power sources with almost same economical inputs, much
emphasis can be put on development of more nuclear power plants only if proper
measures are taken to prevent any nuclear accident because of the serious human
life threats associated with the failure of a nuclear plant.
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6: Sources
2a = Master_thesis_Rozylow_Marta 2013 cost benefit analysis of NPP)
2b = world-nuclear.org , Quora , Google)
2c = http://energy.about.com )
2d = justenergy.com )
3a = http://purbamedinipur.gov.in/
http://www.census2011.co.in/ ,
http://www.nagarikmancha.org/
3b = http://ijbio.com/index.php/ijb/article/view/766/734
3c = http://www.nagarikmancha.org/images/1401-Haripur-
Land%20for%20Nuclear%20plant.pdf
3d = http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Economic-Aspects/Economics-of-Nuclear-Power/
3e = http://www.leonardo-energy.org/blog/life-expectancy-nuclear-power-plants
3f = http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Nuclear-Wastes/Decommissioning-
Nuclear-Facilities/
3g = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of nuclear power accidents by country
3h=http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-G-N/India/
3i=http://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei20/session5/mmittal.pdf
3j=http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/global-coal-prices-inche-closer-to-
cils-cheer-to-ipps-115011600744_1.html
3k=from carbon subsidy to carbon tax: India's Green Actions (http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2014-
15/echapvol1-09.pdf)
3l=http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4830#
3m=http://www.nei.org/corporatesite/media/filefolder/policy/papers/jobs.pdf
3n=http://www.npcil.nic.in/main/career_pay_structure.aspx
3o = Government of India: DAE- Lok Sabha Unstarred question 5724 (per unit cost of Fossil
Fuel Savings