hanover seminars
DESCRIPTION
Copies of the slides used to present the enhanced Hanover Seminar concet at this year's Counter terror Expo in London. For further details see www.sevenquestions.co.ukTRANSCRIPT
Hanover Seminars Peter Clarke Malcolm Baker Philip Hannah
Introductions [who are we]? [why are we here]? [what we want to talk about]? [why is it important]? [how do we want you to leave]?
20t
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21s
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cr
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PERSONAL REFLECTIONS • TRAINED IN 20TH CENTURY CRISES –
BRADFORD, ZEEBRUGGE, HILLSBOROUGH, CLAPHAM
• FACED WITH 21ST CENTURY CRISES – BALI, RICIN, 7/7, 21/7, AIRLINES PLOT, FOREST GATE, LITVINENKO
WHAT HAS CHANGED? HOW CAN WE BE BETTER PREPARED?
complex
FROM IRISH TO ISLAMIST....
Domes2c
Global
Tightly Structured
Fluid
Avoid Capture
Suicide
Restricted Casual2es
Mass Murder
Warnings
No Warnings
Bombs and Bullets
Unconven2onal
Nego2able Agenda
No Poli2cal Solu2on
8
Humanitarian
Assistance
Centre
Help/Support Line
Crisis Support team(s)
Temporary Mortuary
Body Holding Area(s)
Family and Friends Reception Centre(s) Family Liaison
Officers Rest Centre
Survivor Reception Centre
Documentation team(s)
Casualty Clearing Station(s)
Implement structures according to need & time.
Casualty Bureau
Evacuation Assembly
Point
uncertain
UNCERTAINTY
• RISK OF INFORMATION OVERLOAD AND CONSEQUENT LACK OF CLARITY e.g BEHAVIOURAL INDICATORS
• ON 21/7, FEAR OF CBRN • FRAGILITY OF PHONE SYSTEMS – 9/11
AND 7/7 • WILL THERE BE FURTHER ATTACKS?
9/11, 7/7 AND AIRLINES PLOT.
interconnected
Interconnected Consequences
INTERCONNECTED CONSEQUENCES
• CONTAMINATION • PUBLIC HEALTH • CRIME • INTELLIGENCE • DIPLOMACY
unclear
UNCLEAR
• DESPITE CLEAR C2 AND MODERN COMMUNICATIONS -‐ LACK OF CLARITY AS TO 7/7 ATTACKS FOR SOME HOURS
• DESPITE MODERN MEDICINE AND SCIENCE, IT TOOK WEEKS TO UNDERSTAND LITVINENKO’S CONDITION.
• WHAT IS THE INTELLIGENCE ACTUALLY TELLING US – eg FOREST GATE?
UNCLEAR
• RISK OF INFORMATION OVERLOAD AND CONSEQUENT LACK OF CLARITY e.g BEHAVIOURAL INDICATORS
• ON 21/7, FEAR OF CBRN • FRAGILITY OF PHONE SYSTEMS – 9/11 AND 7/7
• WILL THERE BE FURTHER ATTACKS? 9/11, 7/7 AND AIRLINES PLOT.
THE UK IEM MODEL • ANTICIPATE • ASSESS • PREVENT • PREPARE • RESPOND • RECOVER
But does our training and exercising actually address all of these? Is there a model that does?
“If it is broken …”
Hanover Seminars Peter Clarke Malcolm Baker Philip Hannah
Hanover Seminars
Building Resilience
• Horizon scanning
• Gap analysis
• Functional analysis
• Stakeholder analysis
• Relationships
• Trust & confidence
• Proven methodology
Co-ordination of Activity
Like a parachute …..…
… the mind only works when
it is open
Many heads are better than one …
… a comprehensive approach to reduce threats, vulnerability and risks.
strategic overview
Hanover Seminars Peter Clarke Malcolm Baker Philip Hannah
How does it work? What does it look like?
strategic overview
“twin tracks”
tactical & operational
focus
deep dive
value of wargaming
transparency
How much are you leaving to chance?