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TRANSCRIPT
1 1
Half Year Results Analyst and Investor
presentation Wednesday 15 May 2013
1
2 2
Introduction
Carolyn McCall
Chief Executive Officer
2
3 3
Key messages
1. easyJet’s competitive advantages means it continues to be a structural winner in the European short-haul market despite a difficult economic environment
2. Significantly improved winter performance
3. Strategy is delivering strong results and returns for shareholders
-5.47
-3.87
-2.04
-12.1%
-7.6%
-3.8%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2011 2012 2013
PB
T m
arg
in
PB
T /
se
at
Loss / seat PBT margin
-153
-112
-61
2011 2012 2013
Lo
ss b
efo
re ta
x
Reducing winter losses, down over 45% Improving loss per seat and margins
4 4
Finance review
Chris Kennedy
Chief Financial Officer
4
5 5
Management action taken to offset headwinds
Loss per seat bridge
£ per seat
H1
2013
-2.04
0.10
1.34
3.50
0.35
H1
2012
Cost
increase
FX excl Fuel easyJet lean
incremental
Easter
2.44
-3.87
0.83
0.83
Fuel per Seat Revenue
per Seat
A320 Mix
6 6
Financial Results
£m H1’13 H1’12 Change B/(W)
Total revenue 1,601 1,465 136
Fuel (496) (483) (13)
Operating costs excluding fuel (1,042) (982) (60)
EBITDAR 63 - 63
Ownership costs (124) (112) (12)
Loss before tax (61) (112) 51
EBITDAR margin 3.9% 0.0% 3.9ppt
Loss before tax margin (3.8%) (7.6%) 3.8ppt
7 7
Financial results
£m H1’13 H1’12 Change
Loss before tax (61) (112) 45.5%
Tax credit 14 22 (36.6%)
Loss after tax (47) (90) 47.8%
Effective tax rate 23% 20% 3ppt
Loss per share 12.0p 21.2p (43.4%)
Return on capital employed* (0.9%) (2.8%) 1.9ppt
Notes: Return on capital employed (ROCE) measure includes leases capitalised at 7 times The ROCE measure with target liquidity included is shown in the appendix
8 8
Improved revenue performance
£m H1’13 H1’12 Change
Passengers (m) 26.6 25.2 5.3%
Load factor (%) 88.6% 86.9% 1.7ppt
Seats (m) 30.0 29.0 3.3%
Average sector length (km) 1,042 1,061 (1.8%)
Total revenue (£m) 1,601 1,465 9.3%
Total revenue per seat (£) 53.39 50.47 5.8%
@ constant currency (£) 54.80 50.47 8.6%
Source: Competitor capacity from OAG using an easyJet definition of overlapping markets. This excludes charter capacity.
-2.4%
Q3’12
7.5%
4.7%
Q4’12 Q1’13 Q2’13 -3.6%
5.2% 6.7%
8.0%
5.0%
-2.3%
9.2%
1.5%
-3.3%
Revenue per seat at constant currency easyJet capacity growth Competitor capacity on easyJet markets
9 9
Revenue improvement driven by initiatives
Year on year drivers of revenue per seat change (£/Seat)
0.09
1.64
3.23
0.59
0.83
50.47
53.39
H1 2012Actual
Revenueinitiatives
New Routematurity
Non-seat Easter FX andhedge
H1 2013Actual
10 10
Currency impact
Currency split – total costs
Currency split – total revenue
H1‘13 currency impact favourable / (adverse)
EUR CHF USD Other Total
Revenue - Euro rate €1.22 (2012: €1.16) (36) (6) - (1) (43)
Fuel 3 - 4 - 7
Costs excluding fuel - Euro rate €1.22 (2012: €1.18) 3 1 (1) (1) 2
Total (30) (5) 3 (2) (34)
8%3%
Swiss Franc
Sterling 45% Euro 44%
Other
31%
6%
25%
Euro
Swiss Franc
Sterling
1%
37%
Other
US Dollar
11 11
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
FY'12 FY'13
Timing of Euro: Sterling movement drove adverse fx
GBP: Euro rates:
Sharp decline in value of Sterling to Euro in January 2013
High level of forward bookings posted at above 1.20, cost incurred at lower rate
12 12
Impact of fuel
H1'13 H1'12 Change B/(W)
Fuel $ per metric tonne
Market price 1,041 1,028 (13)
Effective price 988 972 (16)
US dollar rate
Market rate 1.59 1.59 -
Effective rate 1.61 1.60 1c
Actual cost of fuel £ per metric tonne 613 608 (5)
Year on year drivers of £(13)m fuel cost increase
• £(2)m from £5 per metric tonne increase in fuel price, ETS and fx movements
• £(14)m volume related: increased sectors and load factor partially offset by reduced sector length
• £3m saving from increased proportion of A320 aircraft
13 13
Favourable/ (Adverse)
£ cost per seat ex fuel
£ var at Constant Currency
% var at Constant Currency
Drivers
Ground Operations
15.47 (1.57) (10.9%) • Steep increase in airport charges in Spain & Italy • Increase in de-icing costs due to adverse weather
conditions in winter 2012
Crew 7.17 (0.15) (2.1%) • Pay increase of 1.8% & changes to performance related
bonus schemes
Navigation 4.07 0.03 0.9% • Increase in regulated charges • Offset by cost savings achieved through fleet mix change
& reduction in average sector length
Maintenance 2.99 0.28 8.3% • Underlying maintenance costs broadly flat • One off adjustment to leased engine maintenance
provision in H1 2012 (not repeated in H1 2013)
Overhead 4.89 (0.06) (1.2%) • Increase in disruption costs • Investment in IT development resources • Increase in proportion of performance-related pay
Brand Licence 0.16 (0.07) (88.2%) • Royalty fee increased from £2.5m to £4.8m due to the
change from fixed royalty payments to a percentage of revenue
Ownership Costs 4.14 0.28 7.1%
• Decrease in interest cost due to repayment of more expensive debt
• Decrease in lease costs due to lower average fleet lease mix
Total cost (ex fuel) 38.89 (1.26) (3.4%)
Cost per seat – key drivers H1’13 vs. H1’12
Variances shown: red & bracketed = negative or an increase in cost, black = favourable or decrease in cost
14 14
Increasing proportion of A320’s
Mar‘13 Mar‘12 Change
A319 (operating lease) 49 55 (6)
A319 (owned / finance lease) 105 111 (6)
A319 Total 154 166 (12)
A320 (operating lease) 14 6 8
A320 (owned / finance lease) 42 32 10
A320 Total 56 38 18
Total fleet 210 204 6
Percentage of operating leases 30% 30% -
Percentage unencumbered 40% 21% 19ppt
Percentage of A320s in fleet 27% 19% 8ppt
15 15
Seasonal working capital benefit from summer bookings
883 40 56
390 34 85
97
239 193
131 36 1,194
Net Working Capital
Depn & amort
Operating Loss
Sep 2012 * Mar 2013 FX Restricted Cash
Sale & Leaseback
Borrowings CAPEX Ordinary dividend
paid
Tax, net int & other
* Includes money market deposits but excludes restricted cash
£m
16 16
Strong balance sheet
£m Mar ‘13 Mar ‘12
Property, plant and equipment 2,192 2,193
Goodwill and other intangible assets 456 452
Other assets 554 591
Liabilities (excluding debt) (1,968) (1,772)
1,234 1,464
Debt 761 1,169
Cash and money market deposits (1,194) (1,211)
Net debt / (cash) (433) (42)
Shareholders’ equity 1,667 1,506
Capital employed 1,234 1,464
Gearing* 11% 31%
*Gearing defined as (debt + 7 x annual lease payments – cash) divided by (shareholders’ equity + debt +7 x annual lease payments – cash)
17 17
Fuel and foreign exchange hedging
Sensitivities
• $10 movement per metric tonne impacts F’13 PBT by +/-$1.3m
• One cent movement in £/$ impacts F’13 PBT by +/-£0.9m
• One cent movement in £/€ impacts F’13 PBT by +/-£0.4m
Fuel requirement
US Dollar requirement
Euro
surplus
Six months to 30 September 2013 83% 80% 85%
Average rate $980/ tonne 1.60 1.18
Full year ending 30 September 2013 85% 82% 85%
Average rate $983/ tonne 1.60 1.18
Full year ending 30 September 2014 67% 62% 71%
Average rate $984/ tonne 1.58 1.20
Rates as at 13 May 2013: Euro to sterling 1.18; US$ to sterling 1.54; Jet fuel cif US$923 per metric tonne . FX sensitivities shown relate to the impact of changes in the fx rate on the unhedged element of currency over and away from the outlook statement and the rates shown above
18 18
Forward bookings
% seats sold *
H2 (Apr‘13 to Sept‘13) * As at 6 May 2013
H2 bookings in line with prior year
Easter Impact
89%
49%
87%
49%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep H2
FY'12 FY'13
19 19
Outlook
Capacity (seats flown)
• Q3: c. +4% (before disruption)
• H2: c.+3.5% (before disruption)
Revenue per seat (constant currency)
• H2: c.+4%
Cost per seat ex fuel (constant currency)
• H2: c.+4% (assuming normal disruption levels and constant load factors)
Second half results
• H2: £5 million to £10 million further adverse movement from foreign exchange rates (including those related to fuel).
• H2: With fuel remaining within its recent $900/MT to $1,000/MT trading range, constant currency fuel costs for the second half would be up to £10 million favourable.
“Whilst there is always the potential for unexpected events to impact short term financial performance, the outlook for the second half of the financial year combined with the strong reduction in first half
losses means that easyJet expects to deliver improved returns and profitability for the year ending 30 September 2013.”
Rates as at 13 May 2013: Euro to sterling 1.18; US$ to sterling 1.54; Jet fuel cif US$923 per metric tonne .
20 20
Business Review
Carolyn McCall
Chief Executive
20
21 21
Clear opportunity to deliver sustainable growth and returns for shareholders
Environment creating opportunity for easyJet
• Economic uncertainty & sluggish growth
• Industrial unrest
• High fuel costs
• Sovereign debt concerns
• Legacy carriers incurring significant short haul losses
• Weaker carriers retreating or exiting with 3% reduction in competitor capacity over winter
• Consumers valuing low fares
1. Efficient, low cost model
2. Strong network and market positions
3. easyJet.com and brand
4. Strong balance sheet
+ + = Industry Headwinds
Competitive environment
Competitive advantages
Growing returns
22 22
EZJ 46m seats
Non-LCC P2P (est)
86m seats
Non-LCC transfer (est)
26m seats
Other LCC 51m seats
Profitable opportunities within existing markets
Share of traffic within easyJet’s top 20 airports
Growth in existing markets
• easyJet has approximately 22% share of capacity at its top 20 airports – equating to around 46 m seats
• Other low cost carriers (LCCs) have ~25% share
• Non-LCCs account for 53%, with 12% estimated to be for connections to long haul flights
• 41% or 86m seats opportunity within easyJet’s top 20 airports
Source: Market size sourced from OAG data based on easyJet definition of short-haul routes; estimates of transfer traffic obtained from airport and company external announcements. P2P = point to point; LCC = Low-cost carrier.
23 23
4% 4%
13%
7%
3%1%
-2%
-4%
-9%
-1%
2%
0%
4%
-5%
0%
UK France Swiss Italy Market
easyJet change
Competitors on easyJet markets
Total change on easyJet markets
Continued competitor capacity retrenchment
Capacity growth H2‘ F’13 (OAG) Capacity change (YOY)
H2’12 capacity
H1 ‘13 capacity
H2’13 capacity
Competitors on EZJ routes
-3.0% -2.8% -1.0%
easyJet +7.5% +3.3% +3.5%
Market on easyJet routes
-0.1% -1.0% +0.1%
Competitors in total SH market
-1.1% -4.6% +0.1%
Rate of competitor capacity withdrawal expected to slow going into summer
Source: Market share data from OAG. easyJet routes based on internal easyJet definition. Based on April download for the six months to 31 March 2013. Forward looking data based on 6 months ending 30 September 2013. Adjustments made to forward looking capacity to remove outliers and conform with easyJet and analyst views.
24 24
Strategy to drive growth and returns
1. Drive demand, conversion and yield across Europe
2. Build strong number 1 and 2 network positions
3. Maintain cost advantage
4. Disciplined use of capital
• Sustainable growth
• (slightly in excess of market c. 3% to 5% per annum)
• Improved returns
• Tangible and regular cash returns via 3x cover dividend
Leverage easyJet’s cost advantage, leading market positions and brand to deliver point-to-point low fares with operational efficiency and friendly service for our customers
25 25
1. Drive demand: Digital developments 1.
Drive demand
1. Drive
Demand
Developments
• easyJet is the 3rd most searched for airline globally
• easyJet App now has 4.5m downloads
• Flight tracker introduced used over 4 million times since launch
• Over 4,000 updates posted
• Inspire me launched in October
• Mobile boarding cards being trialled
Marketing strategy is increasing traffic to easyJet and improving conversion rates
26 26
1. Drive demand: CRM improvements allow targeted upsell
Consolidated data sources to create a single customer view allowing improved targeting and allocation of
marketing spend
Inspire me
Departure Pre-booking
Allocated seating
Additional products
• Hotels
• Car hire
• Allocated seating
Information to make journeys easier
• On departure and arrival airport
• Info. for families
• Travel checklist
• Online check-in and document reminders
Airport info 48 hours to go
1. Drive
Demand
27 27
98% 100% 90%
98%
88% 92%
12% 13% 6%
19%
7%
21%
H1'12 H1'13 H1'12 H1'13 H1'12 H1'13
Total brand awareness Brand choice/preference
1. Drive demand: Brand recognition scores improving Drive
Demand
1. Drive
Demand
Brand strength is building:
• Sustained strong brand awareness in all markets
• Consideration still growing, and Europe continuing to match strong UK levels
• 1 in 5 consumers in both France and Italy consider easyJet to be their first choice airline, up from less than 1 in 10 a year ago.
UK France Italy
Source: 2013 data based on Millward Brown research commissioned by easyJet. 2012 data normalised based on GfK CSAT
28 28
1. Drive demand: Allocated seating on track
*Source : Gfk & weighted Millward Brown for six months to March ‘13 vs 6 months to end March ‘12.
1. Drive
Demand
Delivered against objectives
1. No impact on asset utilisation
• Strong operational performance, best in class OTP
2. No negative impact on cost per seat
3. Drive increased customer satisfaction
• Satisfaction with boarding experience has increased by 2.6 percentage points year on year to 70.5%*
4. Generating higher returns than speedy boarding
• Allocated seating drove an incremental £8 million sales over Speedy Boarding in the first half
easyJet’s focus remains on minimising the operational impact of the change to allocated seating over the busy summer schedule
29 29
1. Drive demand: Business travel 1.
Drive Demand
Building blocks FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Proposition improve punctuality o add new network points o increase frequency
Product launch & develop flexi fare deploy allocated seating o enable Fast Track Security
Sales recruit pan European sales force o negotiate TMC incentives o deliver corporate fares
Distribution agree new commercial terms with GDS o standardise GDS booking process o strengthen position on Self Booking Tools o enhance online & mobile capability
Consideration develop Business Sense campaign o increase allocation of media weight
Delivered
Delivered
Delivered
Ongoing
Delivered
Ongoing
Ongoing
Delivered
Delivered
Ongoing
Ongoing
In progress
In progress
Planned
Planned
30 30
2. Network: Optimising the network
United Kingdom +5%
France +4%
Italy
+7%
Spain
-16%
Switzerland +13%
Germany +4.5%
Overall c. 3.5% capacity growth in H2 (assuming minimal disruption)
Portugal
+2%
Source : Internal easyJet projection April 2013
2. Network
31 31
3. Cost
advantage 3. Cost: Innovating to reduce cost
Bendibelt
• New technology to load bags onto aircraft
• Reduces headcount required to load bags from 3 to 2 people
Forced air de-icing
• Trialling forced Air technology
• Potential to reduce de-icing fluid usage by c. 40-50%
Reducing weight & fuel burn
• Lightweight seats
• Lightweight trollies
• Lightweight carpets
• Sharklets
32 32
3. Cost
advantage
• Simplifying the process without compromising safety
E.g.
• Refuelling in Italy
• Ground handling contracts
3. Cost: easyJet turn to reduce costs
‘easyJet turn’ logged 360 activities required to turn an aircraft round
Targeting reducing time on ground by 3 minutes
33 33
4. Continued growth in network returns
Improving returns
• In 2012 - 56 routes were delivering less than 40% of average ROCE; now only 20 routes
• 18 Improved
• 18 Dropped. E.g.
o Liverpool: Brussels
o Brest : Paris CDG
• Madrid closure implemented efficiently
• June’12 – proposed closure
• Dec’12 – closure completed
• Q2’13 – improving returns
• Growing capacity on high performing routes
4. Capital
Discipline
Improving network returns year on year
Rolling 12 months returns: April – March ‘13 vs. April to March ‘12
Returns
R outes
Rolling 12 to March 12 Rolling 12m to March 13
12% ROCE
0% ROCE
34 34
4. Evaluation of new generation aircraft
• Technical evaluation complete
• Competitive process
• Rigorous level of governance of the process
• No decision yet made and dependant on making an order that is in the interests of all shareholders
4. Capital
Discipline
35 35
Summary: strategy continues to deliver
Strategy delivered strong performance over winter
Modest capacity growth
Strong unit revenue growth
Controlling costs
Capital discipline
Improving returns
Further opportunities to take profitable share
1. Efficient, low cost model
2. Strong network and market positions
3. easyJet.com and brand
4. Strong balance sheet
Clear opportunity to continue to deliver growing returns to shareholders
Favourable competitive environment
• Legacy carriers’ losses
• Weaker carriers retreating or exiting
• Consumers valuing low fares
36 36
Q&A
36
37 37
Appendix
37
38 38
ROCE Calculation – including 7x lease adjustment
Reported £m H1 2013 H1 2012
Loss before interest and tax – reported (40) (99)
Interest element of operating lease payments 16 17
Loss before interest and tax - adjusted (24) (82)
Tax 23% 24%
Normalised operating profit after tax (NOPAT) (19) (62)
Average shareholders’ equity – reported 1,731 1,606
Average net cash – reported (180) (71)
Opening capitalised leases 665 763
Closing capitalised leases 644 713
Average capitalised leases 655 738
Average capital employed 2,206 2,273
Return on capital employed – 7x basis (0.9%) (2.8%)
39 39
ROCE Calculation – NPV and Target liquidity
Proforma £m H1 2013 H1 2012
Loss before interest and tax – reported (40) (99)
Interest element of operating lease payments 9 14
Loss before interest and tax – adjusted (31) (85)
Tax 23% 24%
Normalised operating profit after tax (NOPAT) (24) (65)
Average shareholders’ equity – reported 1,731 1,606
Adjustment to shareholders’ equity (41) (37)
Average shareholder’s equity – adjusted 1,690 1,569
Average net cash – reported (180) (71)
Increase in debt associated with capitalising leases 363 376
Target liquidity adjustment 848 816
Average net debt – adjusted 1,031 1,121
Average capital employed 2,721 2,690
Return on capital employed – NPV basis (0.9%) (2.4%)*
*2012 ROCE on NPV basis restated from -2.3% to -2.4% to reflect the same NPV calculation methodology used for FY 2012 statement
40 40
RASK and CASK
£m H1 2013 H1 2012 Change B/(W)
Total revenue per seat 53.39 50.47 5.8%
at constant currency 54.80 50.47 8.6%
RASK at constant currency (pence) 5.26 4.76 10.5%
Total cost per seat ex fuel 38.89 37.70 (3.1%)
at constant currency 38.96 37.70 (3.4%)
CASK ex fuel at constant currency (pence) 3.74 3.55 (5.2%)
41 41
This communication is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of “investment professionals” in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001; or (ii) high net worth bodies corporate, unincorporated associations and partnerships and trustees of high value trusts as described in Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. Persons within the United Kingdom who receive this communication (other than those falling within (i) and (ii) above) should not rely on or act upon the contents of this communication. Nothing in this presentation is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for the purposes of the prohibition on financial promotion contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
This presentation has been furnished to you solely for information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person, nor may it be published in whole or in part, for any other purpose.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities of easyJet plc (“easyJet”) in any jurisdiction nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of easyJet. Without limitation to the foregoing, these materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold into the United States absent registration under the US Securities Act of 1933 or an exemption there from.
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Disclaimer