haan new brunswick’s demographic and housing challenges final fr
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Demographic Challenges
Michael Haan, PhDChaire de recherche du Canada en matière de population et de la politique
socialeUniversité du Nouveau-Brunswick
La démographie, la pauvreté et le logement abordable au Nouveau-Brunswick
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Le processus
1. Les tendances démographiques de base 2. La migration est un des principaux moteurs de l'évolution
démographique et économique. 3. Tendances des migrations intra-provincial 4. Implications pour le logement
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Ce que nous pouvons / ne pouvons pas voir avec la démographie
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Point n ° 1: Les tendances démographiques de base
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Population des provinces canadiennes, 1851-2011
160 ans d'évolution démographique au Canada
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Les taux de fertilité
Taux de fécondité en 1951 (classement national) • Île-du-Prince-Édouard: 5.1 (1) • Nouvelle-Écosse: 4.8 (4) • Terre-Neuve / Labrador: 4.9 (3) • Nouveau-Brunswick: 5.0 (2) Taux de natalité en 2011 (classement national) • Île-du-Prince-Édouard: 1.48 (7) • Nouvelle-Écosse: 1.40 (9) • Terre-Neuve / Labrador: 1.34 (10) • Nouveau-Brunswick: 1.41 (8)
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Pyramide des âges, 1956-2006 du Nouveau-Brunswick• http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa
/97-551/vignettes/nb06pymd_f.swf
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Démographique Plus et Moins du Canada• En 2001:% de la population vivant résidant dans
la province de naissance (Ontario):• Newfoundland/Labrador: 70.1% (13.82%)• Prince Edward Island: 69.9% (11.69%)• Nova Scotia: 74.0% (12.32%)• New Brunswick: 73.5% (9.76%)• Quebec: 92.0% (5.19%)• Ontario: 90.4%• Manitoba: 72.6% (6.4%)• Saskatchewan: 64.8% (4.23%)• Alberta: 81.1% (2.95%)• British Columbia: 87.9% (3.06%)
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N-B, 2011.
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Les sources de croissance # 2 + 3: Immigration et migration
Source: Statistics Canada’s Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada, 2009-2036
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Les tendances de la croissance 2012 du Nouveau-Brunswick
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2012004/t323-eng.htm
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Point n ° 2: La migration entraîne le changement démographique et économique.
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Ratio de dépendance totale, 1991
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Ratio de dépendance totale, 1996
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Ratio de dépendance totale, 2001
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Ratio de dépendance totale, 2006
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Ratio de dépendance totale, 2011
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Population < ans15, 1991
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Population < ans15, 1996
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Population < ans15, 2001
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Population < ans15, 2006
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Population < ans15, 2011
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Proportion de 65 ans +, 1991
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Proportion de 65 ans +, 1996
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Proportion de 65 ans +, 2001
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Proportion de 65 ans +, 2006
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Proportion de 65 ans +, 2011
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.
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Changement de la population, 1991-2011
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Déclin rural, 2006-2011
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Le point 3: Implications pour le logement et la pauvreté
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Croissance de l'emploi au Nouveau-Brunswick, 1996-2006
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Nouveau-Brunswick: En bref
1. % De salariés interprovinciales: 2% de la main-d'œuvre (~ 10% de Campbellton-Miramichi).
2. Bénéficiaires de l'assurance-emploi: 28% (~ 44% de Campbellton-Miramichi).
3. 21% des déclarants n'ont pas de revenus d'emploi que ce soit.
4. Faible revenu: 14% (17% à Campbellton-Miramichi) 5. Régime de retraite: 35% (30% à Edmundston-Woodstock).
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Conclusion: implications pour le logement et la pauvretéGet ready for:• Declines in child poverty.• An increase in poverty among seniors.• New forms of poverty• Immigrants• Lone parents (new types of lone parents)• Mismatched people. • Housing shortages alongside growing vacancies.