h-town day: larry kellner
DESCRIPTION
The H-Town Day presentation on the Greater Houston Partnership by Larry Kellner, Chairman of the GHP.TRANSCRIPT
Houston Economic Outlook
Presented by Larry Kellner
ChairmanGreater Houston Partnership
October 20, 2011
Four recessions
• March ’81 – January ’87– Oil price crash and local S&L debacle
• June ’91 – January ’92– First Gulf War, oil price spike, consumer pessimism
• June ’01 – June ’03– Dot.com bubble, Y2K, 911 and Enron
• December ’08 – January ’10– Global financial crisis
Three employment booms
• January ’80 – March ’82+ 235,300 net new jobs
• July ’96 – December ’98+ 250,600 jobs
• January ’05 – October ’08+ 324,000 jobs
Three employment busts
• April ’82 – August ’83– 163,800 lost jobs
• June ’85 – January ’87– 133,800 lost jobs
• December ’08 – January ’10– 156,800 lost jobs
Significant job creation
Jan-80 Jul-81 Jan-83 Jul-84 Jan-86 Jul-87 Jan-89 Jul-90 Jan-92 Jul-93 Jan-95 Jul-96 Jan-98 Jul-99 Jan-01 Jul-02 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-101400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
GREATER HOUSTON PARTNERSHIPHouston.org
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Jan `801.478 M
Aug `112.595 M
Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentHouston Metro Area
Significant population growth as well
’80 ’90 ’00 ’10
3.1473.854
4.71499999999999
5.946
Metro Area Population(millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
After 30 years
• The region has
• Added 2.8 million residents
• Created 1.0 million Jobs
• Built 760,000 single family homes
• Sold more than 6.7 million vehicles
After 30 years
• The region has
• Built 75 million square feet of office space
• Handled 4.7 billion tons of cargo
• Served more than 1 billion air passengers
A fairly decent performance by most standards
Onset of the recession
Apr
May Jun Jul Au
g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Ma
r Apr May Jun Jul Au
g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
’08 ’09
Los AngelesMinneapolis
San DiegoRiverside
Miami
San Francisco
ChicagoBaltimore
AtlantaDallas
New YorkSeattle
St. Louis
Boston
Philadelphia
Washington
Houston
Detroit - May ’00
Tampa – Sep’06
U.S.
’07
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Houston Jobs Lost in Recession
Metro Houston Employment
Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Recession Began Jan ’09 Sep ’08
Jobs Lost 152,800 121,200
% Lost 5.8% 4.6%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Listed by Population Size
Metro Area Jobs Lost* Metro Area Jobs Lost *
New York -389,600 Detroit -480,900
Los Angeles -549,300 Phoenix -246,900
Chicago -340,800 San Francisco -169,300
Dallas -155,900 Riverside -172,500
Philadelphia -144,700 Seattle -141,500
Houston -121,200 Minneapolis -115,900
Miami -245,900 San Diego -101,600
Atlanta -224,800 St. Louis -83,900
Washington -95,800 Tampa -138,900
Boston -104,600 Baltimore -70,400* Seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total jobs lost
-3.2%
-4.3%-4.5%-4.6%-5.1%-5.2%-5.3%
-6.1%-6.4%
-7.5%-7.7%-8.0%-8.3%-9.1%
-9.7%-10.2%
-11.1%
-12.8%-13.5%
* Excludes Detroit
% Jobs Lost During RecessionLargest U.S. Metro Areas*
Depth of Recession
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-42
-38 -38 -37-35
-33 -32 -31 -30
-24 -24 -24 -23 -22 -22 -22 -21
-16 -16
Los A
nge
les
Ph
oe
nix
Rive
rside
San Fran
cisco
Atlan
ta
Tamp
a
San D
iego
Miam
i
Min
ne
apo
lis
Balti
mo
re
Ne
w Y
ork
Seatt
le
Ch
icago
Dallas
Ph
ilade
lph
ia
St. Lou
is
DC
Bo
ston
Ho
usto
n
* Excludes Detroit
Months from Peak EmploymentTo Employment UptickLargest U.S. Metro Areas*
Length of Recession
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs recovered through Aug ’11
Metro Houston Employment
Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Recovery Began Jan ’10 Dec ’09
Jobs Recovered 120,100 110,100
% Recovered 76.6% 90.8%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Adjusted
Unadjusted
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jobs Recouped Jobs Still Needed to Reach Previous Peak
120,100 Jobs, 76.6%
110,100 Jobs, 90.8% 11,100 Jobs 9.2%
32,700 Jobs23.4%
Halfway PointHouston Recovery
Source: Texas Employment Commission
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Los Angeles
Chicago
New York
Miami
DC
Dallas
Boston
Houston
-1.2%
4.1%
5.4%
10.0%
11.6%
13.9%
46.0%
52.0%
66.1%
90.8%
Percent of jobs recovered though Aug ’11Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Riverside
Detroit
San Francisco
Phoenix
Tampa
Minneapolis
San Diego
Seattle
St. Louis
Baltimore
Houston
-0.3%
5.5%
11.4%
13.6%
14.1%
25.2%25.6%26.6%
31.5%
32.1%
90.8%
-0.3%
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’11Houston vs. Second 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Information
TWU*
Real Estate
Finance
Construction
Professional Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment
Oil & Gas
Wholesale Trade
Administrative Support
Education Services
Hotels & Food Srvcs
Health Care
Personal Services
0.0%
11.7%
23.0%
34.0%
34.7%
43.8%
48.6%
48.8%
63.8%
74.8%
79.2%
+100%
+100%
+100%
+100%
+100%
Midway Point
Houston MSA job recovery through Aug ’11
Source: Texas Workforce Commission* Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
• Growing population– 125,000 people/year
• Infant population– 65,000 births/year
• In-Migration– 60,000 newcomers/year
• Aging population– 15,000 seniors (65+)/year
Population Growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Purchasing Managers Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12
Source: National Association of Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc.
Neu
tral
= 5
0
Sep `1160.8
PMI above 50 signals continued expansion
North American Rig Count (monthly average)
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12
Jun `09895
Sep `111,978
Source: Baker Hughes
Foreign trade
YTD Aug '10 YTD Aug '110
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
$60.2$77.3
$76.9
$98.8
ImportsExports
$137.1
$176.1
$ Value, Billions, Houston-Galveston Customs District
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Total Appraised Value in BillionsMajor Texas Counties
$323.2
$187.4
$132.5$113.7 $106.6
$37.2$23.3
Source: Comptroller of Public Accounts- Property Tax Assessment Division, 2011
5.9386.526
7.160
7.842
8.573
9.355
2.6883.006 3.255 3.496 3.727 3.974
'10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 2010-2035(Millions)
Population Employment
Population & Employment Projections
Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2011
2010-2011 Economic DevelopmentGHP Contributions
Year Total Jobs Capital Investment
2010 22,989 $455 million
2011 YTD 15,428 $536 million
* Calculations using regional input-output modeling system (RIMSII) developed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Thus far in 2011, GHP has been involved in 21 announced projects in the region.
Employment
• Compound annual growth rate• 1.89 percent = 47,800 jobs• 2.65 percent = 67,100 jobs
• Forecasters growth rates• 66,000 jobs (Perryman)• 53,300 jobs (Woods & Poole)
Employment
• Compound annual growth rate• 1.89 percent = 47,800 jobs• 2.65 percent = 67,100 jobs
• Forecasters growth rates• 66,000 jobs (Perryman)• 53,300 jobs (Woods & Poole)
• Most recent TWC release• 65,600 jobs since Aug ’10
Houston Economic Outlook
Presented by Larry Kellner
ChairmanGreater Houston Partnership
October 20, 2011