gtsc annual meeting 2014: michelle mrdeza: what to expect when you are expecting nothing

WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU ARE EXPECTING NOTHING

A VIEW OF THE FUTURE: CONGRESS (AND THE BUDGET)

Michelle MrdezaPresident/MXM Consulting

Senior Consultant/Cornerstone Government Affairs

President/LaRosa Garden Designs

703-772-9803

Budget, Confirmations Among (Many) Lame Duck Priorities

Sources: National Journal Research, 2014.

Key Date

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30

No

vem

ber

2014

Congress in Session*

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30 31

Dece

mb

er

2014

Louisiana runoff elections take place

Dec. 6

Key Dates in 2014 Lame Duck Session

Terrorism Risk Insurance Act expires

Dec. 31

Current continuing resolution

expires Dec. 11

Party leadership selections expected to take place in first week or two of the lame duck

session

Other Possible CongressionalPriorities in Lame Duck Session

Confirm nominees for administrative posts (possibly including Attorney General)

Pass tax extender legislation

Pass National Defense Authorization Act

Consider authorizing the use of force in the Middle East

Consider increasing funding to address the Ebola outbreak

Consider the Internet Tax Freedom Act

Grant the President Trade Promotion Authority

* Days in session during the lame duck weeks have not been completely scheduled and are subject to change

Analysis• Negotiations on key items in the lame duck session will be shaped by the Republicans’ midterm victory• Democrats are seeking to compromise while they still have a seat at the table, while Republicans want to tie up loose ends tomake room for more ambitious legislation in the 114th Congress• Members from both parties would prefer to pass an omnibus bill to finish the FY2015 budget process, but Congress will need to reach compromise on specific budget details before an omnibus bill can be passed

Congress Lags in Appropriations Process

Subcommittee Appropriations House bill Senate bill Both Chambers

Agriculture, Rural Development, Food

Drug Administration

Commerce, Justice, Science

Defense

Energy and Water Development

Financial Services and General

Government

Homeland Security

Interior, Environment

Labor, Health and Human Services,

Education

Legislative Branch

Military Construction, Veterans Affairs

State, Foreign Operations

Transportation, Housing and Urban

Development

Analysis• Since approving the two-year budget

deal in December 2013, the House has passed seven FY2015 spending bills and the Senate has passed none

• Senate and House did not complete all 23 spending bills by the start of the new fiscal year, instead passing a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded at current levels through December 11, 2014

Source: Billy House, “Is the Congressional Budget Process Going Off the Rails?” NJ Daily, May 22, 2014; U.S. Senate 2014; U.S. House

of Representatives 2014.

Status of FY2015 Appropriations Bills(in billions)

$71.5 Passed

Chamber

Not passed

$71.5

$3.3

$52.0

$491

$51.2

$34.0

$21.3

PUTTING THE BUDGET IN PERSPECTIVEFY 2014/FY 2015

FEDERAL BUDGET $3.6/3.9 Trillion

MANDATORY

$2.1/2.3 Trillion

INTEREST ON THE DEBT

+/- $300 Billion

DISCRETIONARY$1.013/1.015 Trillion

DEFENSE$521/523 Billion

NON-DEFENSE$492/493 Billion

Agriculture; Justice; Interior; Health;

Education; Energy; Transportation;

Housing; Homeland; Veterans

Defense; NSA; Intelligence

Homeland Security Appropriations

Analysis

• Since FY2008, Homeland Security appropriations have averaged $41. 2 billion

• In FY2010, Homeland Security appropriations peaked at $53.9 billion, a 31% increase from the previous year; since then, appropriations have fallen to $39.3 billion, a 27.1% change from FY2010

• Since FY2008, Homeland Security appropriations have averaged 7.7% of total non-defense appropriations; more recently, Homeland Security appropriations have hovered around 7.4% of total non-defense appropriations

Appropriations, FY2008-FY2014*(in billions)

As Percentage of Total Non-Defense Appropriations, FY2008-FY2014

Source: The Heritage Foundation, 2014; Congressional Research Service, 2014; United States House of Representatives, 2014.

* FY2014 figure includes disaster relief funding

DHS APPROPRIATIONS AT A GLANCE(dollars in millions)

FY 2010 FY 2014 FY 2015

Actual Estimate Request House Senate

Departmental Offices 1,267 1,037 1,171 966 1,033

CBP 10,126 10,579 10,701 10,871 10,683

ICE 5,436 5,269 5,014 5,485 5,162

TSA 5,258 4,928 4,325 4,628 4,824

USCG 9,898 9,973 9,602 9,917 10,000

USSS 1,482 1,585 1,635 1,637 1,635

NPPD 1,317 1,470 1,515 1,454 1,526

--Cyber 397 792 746 745 757

FEMA (non-disaster) 7,128 4,354 3,969 4,320 4,328

--Disaster Relief 1,600 6,220 7,033 7,033 7,033

--Grants 4,165 2,530 2,225 2,530 2,530

S and T 1,006 1,220 1,071 1,106 1,071

TOTAL DHS* 40,975 41,423 40,108 41,378 41,307

*Direct appropriations only; excluding Disaster Relief, OCO and mandatory programs

House Appropriations Committee Overview

Jurisdiction Committee Members

Ranking Member: Nita Lowey (D-NY)Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)Pete Visclosky (D-IN)José Serrano (D-NY) Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) Jim Moran (D-VA)†Ed Pastor (D-AZ)†David Price (D-NC)Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA)Sam Farr (D-CA)Chaka Fattah (D-PA)Sanford Bishop (D-GA)Barbara Lee (D-CA)Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL)Betty McCollum (D-MN)Adam Schiff (D-CA)Mike Honda (D-CA)

Major Upcoming Issues

The House Committee on Appropriations is responsible for setting expenditures of money by the government.

FY2015 Appropriations

• In 2014, the House Appropriations Committee passed seven appropriations bills

• None of these bills, however, went to conference

• Before leaving for recess in September 2014, Congress passed a continuing resolution that leaves the government funded at current levels until December 11

• The committee will continue to work towards completing FY2015 appropriations, either in the lame duck session or in the new Congress

Tim Ryan (D-OH) Henry Cuellar (D-TX)Chellie Pingree (D-ME)Mike Quigley (D-IL)Bill Owens (D-NY)†

Steve Womack (R-AR)Alan Nunnelee (R-MS)Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE)Thomas Rooney (R-FL)Chuck Fleischmann (R-TN)Kevin Yoder (R-KS)David Joyce (R-OH)David Valadao (R-CA)Andy Harris (R-MD)Martha Roby (R-AL)Mark Amodei (R-NV)Chris Stewart (R-UT)

Republicans (29) Democrats (22)

Chairman: Hal Rogers (R-KY)Frank Wolf (R-VA)†Jack Kingston (R-GA)†Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ)Tom Latham (R-IA)†Robert Aderholt (R-AL)Kay Granger (R-TX)Mike Simpson (R-ID)John Culberson (R-TX)Ander Crenshaw (R-FL)John Carter (R-TX)Ken Calvert (R-CA)Tom Cole (R-OK)Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)Charlie Dent (R-PA)Tom Graves (R-GA)Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA)

Source: National Journal Research, 2014.

*Tossup Race According to the Cook Political Report†Retiring after 2014

House Homeland Security Committee Overview


Ranking Member: Bennie Thompson (D-MS)Loretta Sanchez (D-CA)Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX)Yvette Clarke (D-NY)Brian Higgins (D-NY)Cedric Richmond (D-LA)William R. Keating (D-MA)Ron Barber (D-AZ)*Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ)Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)Filemon Vela, Jr. (D-TX)Eric Swalwell (D-CA)


The House Homeland Security Committee is responsible for oversight of the Department of Homeland Security.

Cybersecurity

• Although the House passed the National Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure and Infrastructure Protection Act of 2014, the Senate Homeland Security Committee has not acted on it, despite having introduced legislation with similar goals

Iraq/ISIL

• Now that Congress has authorized greater involvement in Iraq and Syria against ISIL (also known as ISIS), the committee may focus on threats to the homeland from ISIL in upcoming months


Chairman: Michael McCaul (R-TX)Lamar S. Smith (R-TX)Peter T. King (R-NY)Mike D. Rogers (R-AL)†Paul Broun (R-GA)†Candice Miller (R-MI)Pat Meehan (R-PA)Jeff Duncan (R-SC)Tom Marino (R-PA)Jason Chaffetz (R-UT)Steven Palazzo (R-MS)Lou Barletta (R-PA)Richard Hudson (R-NC)Steve Daines (R-MT)†Susan Brooks (R-IN)Scott Perry (R-PA)Mark Sanford (R-SC)



House Intelligence Committee Overview


Ranking Member: Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD)Mike Thompson (D-CA)Jan Schakowsky (D-IL)Jim Langevin (D-RI)Adam Schiff (D-CA)Luis Gutierrez (D-IL)Ed Pastor (D-AZ)†Jim Himes (D-CT)Terri Sewell (D-AL)


The House Committee on Intelligence is a permanent select committee with oversight responsibilities for the U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the military intelligence program.


Chairman: Mike Rogers (R-MI)†Mac Thornberry (R-TX)Jeff Miller (R-FL)Mike Conaway (R-TX)Peter King (R-NY)Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ)Devin Nunes (R-CA)Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA)Michele Bachmann (R-MN)†Tom Rooney (R-FL)Joe Heck (R-NV)Mike Pompeo (R-KS)



ISIL/Al-Qaeda

•The committee is exploring recent developments and threat assessments regarding ISIL and Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria•More hearings are likely on these matters in the lame duck session as the renewal date for funding the arming and training of rebel forces approaches and a potential push for congressional reauthorization of the use of military force for operations in the region looms

Senate Appropriations Committee Overview




Republicans (14)

•Vice Chairman:Richard Shelby (R-AL)•Thad Cochran (R-MS)*•Mitch McConnell (R-KY)*•Lamar Alexander (R-TN)*•Susan Collins (R-ME)*•Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)•Lindsey Graham (R-SC)*•Mark Kirk (R-IL)•Dan Coats (R-IN)•Roy Blunt (R-MO)•Jerry Moran (R-KS)•John Hoeven (R-ND)•Mike Johanns (R-NE)† •John Boozman (R-AR)

Democrats (16)

•Chair: Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)•Patrick Leahy (D-VT)•Tom Harkin (D-IA)†•Patty Murray (D-WA)•Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)•Richard Durbin (D-IL)*•Tim Johnson (D-SD)†•Mary Landrieu (D-LA)*•Jack Reed (D-RI)* •Mark Pryor (D-AR)*•Jon Tester (D-MT)•Tom Udall (D-NM)*•Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)*•Jeff Merkley (D-OR)*•Mark Begich (D-AK)*•Chris Coons (D-DE)*

The Senate Appropriations Committee is responsible for all discretionary spending legislation in the Senate. It is also the largest committee in the Senate.

FY2015 Budget Process

• The Senate failed to pass any appropriations bills in 2014

• The committee will continue to work towards completing FY2015 appropriations, either in the lame duck session or in the new Congress

U.S. Response to Ebola

• President Obama requested committee approval of $88 million of additional funding to respond to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa

• The committee suggested more funding than that would be necessary to respond to the threat of the epidemic

Defeated in 2014 Midterm Election *Up for re-election in 2014

†Retiring after 2014

Senate Homeland Security and Gov’t Affairs Committee Overview




Republicans (7)

•Ranking Member: Tom Coburn (R-OK)†•John McCain (R-AZ)•Ron Johnson (R-WI)•Rob Portman (R-OH)•Rand Paul (R-KY)•Mike Enzi (R-WY)*•Kelly Ayote (R-NH)

Democrats (9)

•Chairman: Tom Carper (D-DE)•Carl Levin (D-MI)†•Mark Pryor (D-AR)*•Mary Landrieu (D-LA)*•Claire McCaskill (D-MO)•Jon Tester (D-MT)•Mark Begich (D-AK)*•Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)•Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee has jurisdiction over the Department of Homeland Security and other government functions, such as the Census and the Postal Service.

Cybersecurity

• In 2014, the committee has held several hearings and passed several bills related to improving cybersecurity, but the House and Senate have not been able to resolve differences between their respective bills

Postal Service Reform

• The committee passed the bipartisan Postal Reform Act of 2014, but the Appropriations Committee may upend reform by implementing a moratorium on postal facility closures



Senate Intelligence Committee Overview




Republicans (7)

•Vice Chairman: Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)†Richard Burr (R-NC)•Jim Risch (R-ID)*•Dan Coats (R-IN)•Marco Rubio (R-FL)•Susan Collins (R-ME)*•Tom Coburn (R-OK)†

Democrats (8)

•Chairwoman: Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) •Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)†•Ron Wyden (D-OR)•Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)•Mark Udall (D-CO)*•Mark Warner (D-VA)*•Martin Heinrich (D-NM)•Angus King (I-ME)

The Senate Committee on Intelligence is a select committee with jurisdiction over the

U.S.’s intelligence gathering operations and services. Many of its committee hearings are not open to the public due to their classified subject matters.

ISIL/Al-Qaeda

•The committee is studying recent developments and threat assessments regarding ISIL and Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria•More hearings on these matters are likely in the lame duck session as the renewal date for funding the arming and training of rebel forces approaches and a potential push for congressional reauthorization of the use of military force for operations in the region looms.

Continued NSA Fallout

•The committee is continuing to respond

to criticisms of the NSA’s data collection programs, including accusations of wiretapping committee members

One independent caucuses with the Democrats



gtsc annual meeting 2014: michelle mrdeza: what to expect when you are expecting nothing

Government & Nonprofit

federal budget

lame duck weeks

fy2015 budget process

congressional budget

lame duck priorities

twoyear budget deal

specific budget details

congress members