Growth trends and potential for crop and livestock productivity

Fantu Bachewe; Guush Berhane; and Bart MintenIFPRI

The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End

Hunger and Undernutrition

Addis Ababa HiltonDecember 15, 2017Addis Ababa

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Presentation plan Overview: role of agriculture in the overall economy

Livestock production and productivity in the last decade

(Fantu)

Crop production, productivity and drivers (Guush)

Looking into the future: Ethiopia’s agriculture in the context

of selected countries

CSA data is used unless otherwise mentioned

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1. Introduction

• Agriculture important contributor to rapid growth during 2004-2015o Accounted for 45% of GDP and 30.5% of growth in GDP o Crop output accounted for 31% of GDP and livestock for 10%

Figure 1 — Share in GDP and average contribution to GDP growth, 2004/5-2015/16

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Share in GDP (%)

Agriculture Crop Livestock Industry Services

Crop24%

Livestock5%

Other primary

2%

Industry16%

Services53%

Average contribution to GDP growth

ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Trends in livestock production, productivity, and input use in Ethiopia

Presenter: Fantu Bachewe

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2. Livestock production and productivity

Livestock number• Livestock means of animal-sourced food (ASF) production and are

end-products• Cattle largest in number & on average grew at 3.8% during 2004-2015o Growth averaged 4.6% in sheep and 5.6% or higher in others

• Livestock deaths significant and adversely affect productivityo Over 3 million cattle, sheep, & goats lost to death annually since 2005

• Deaths as % of stock declined, e.g. cattle 16%

Live animal marketing• Number sold for off-farm slaughter, net commercial off-take (NCOT),

doubled in cattle, grew at 56% in sheep and at 131% in goats

• NCOT rate (NCOT/average stock) grew in all animals except poultry

Figure 2 — Net commercial off-take number (millions) and rate (%), 2005/06-2014/15

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Cattle Sheep Goat Cattle Sheep Goat

NCOT (number) NCOT rate (%)

2005

2010

2014

Animal-sourced food (ASF) production and productivity• ASF output grew considerablyo Egg output grew by 93% and milk output by 41% during 2005/06 – 2015/16

• Productivity (output per animal) stagnated

Figure 3 — Annual milk and egg production and productivity, 2005/06-2015/16

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2005 2010 2015

Productivity

Milk (100 lts/cow/year) Egg (dozens/hen/year)

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Output

Eggs (million dozens) Milk (billion liters)

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Figure 4 — Milk productivity (kg/cow/year), 2014 (FAOSTAT, 2017)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Nig

eria

Eth

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Uga

nd

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Ken

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Mal

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Ind

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Ind

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Ch

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Thai

lan

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East

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Growth accounting analyses of the livestock subsector• Labor & livestock most important, accounted for ¾ of output growth • Modern inputs contributed only 11% to livestock output growth

Figure 5 — Average contribution as % of livestock output growth (2004/05 – 2014/15)

Labor49%

Grazing land9%

Livestock25%

Improved feed9%

RTS & rural roads5%

Other factors2%

∆ TFP1%

3. Input use and intensification

Livestock feed• Green fodder (grazing) important but the share of users declining• Lower share use improved feed but share doubledo Purchased, particularly Improved feed, increasing in importance

Figure 6 — Share using feed and purchased feed, 2004-2015

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Imp

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Gra

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g Feed users (%)

Grazing

Improved feed

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Purchased feed users (%)

Livestock extension• Dairy, meat, & poultry extension users increased by 28%, 11%, & 37%• Share of extension users stagnant & considerably lower in livestock

Figure 7 — Number and share of farmers using livestock extension, 2005 and 2014

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80,000

120,000

160,000

Dairy Meat Poultry

Number using livestock extension

2005 2014

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2005 2014

Share using extension

Crop extension (%) Livestock extension (%)

Veterinary services• Share of vaccinated cattle, sheep, & goats more than doubled• Share afflicted with diseases declined in goats and grew slightly in

cattle and sheep (excluding 2008 it declined in all 3)• Animals treated for diseases grew by 63% in cattle, & by over 114%

in sheep & goats

Figure 8 – Share of vaccinated and treated livestock, 2004-2015

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Vaccinated (% out of stock)

Cattle Sheep Goats

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Share of treated out of afflicted (%)

Cattle Sheep Goats

Dairy processing and livestock breed composition• Dairy processors more than tripled & processed milk output grew 93%

• Share of cross-bred cows and poultry low but grew 130% & 90%

Figure 11 — Share of cross-bred cows and poultry (%), 2004-2014

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2004 2010 2014

Cross-bred cows (%)

Cross-bred poultry (%)

Figure 10 — Number of milk processing plants and processed milk output, 2007-2015

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Dairy processors (number)

Monthly processed milk (million liters)

4. Conclusions

• Livestock contributed little to GDP & importance declined

• Rapid growth in ASF output but productivity stagnant

• Modern inputs contributed little to output growth

• Improved feed & cross-bred livestock low but increasing in importance

• Livestock extension users low and stagnant

• Vaccination and treatment of sick livestock increased considerably while share afflicted with diseases overall declined

• Demand and supply side factors indicate considerable potential

1. Spending on ASF as well as livestock exports grew

o Further increase in spending expected with growth in income

2. Use levels of modern inputs low

3. Large and fast growing animal stocks but predominantly low-yielding breeds