group buying by the numbers
DESCRIPTION
My presentation at BIA/Kelsey's ILM East on March 23, 2011.TRANSCRIPT
Group Buying By the NumbersJim Moran | @jdmoran | blog.yipit.com
BIA/Kelsey ILM East: Wednesday, March 23
THE MARKET
Low Barriers to Entry…
Source: Needham & Company LLC (Mark’s whiteboard)
…High Barriers to ScaleThe Virtuous Cycle of Daily Deals
More Sales
More Conversions
More Deal Personalizatio
n
More Deals
More Subscribers
Improved Media Buying
More Salespeople
More Cities
The Daily Deal Stack
MERCHANTS
CO
NSUMERS
Daily Deal Sites
Merchant Services
SOON…Merchant Agencies
Consumer Services Aggregators
White Label Publishers
Vertical Deal Sites
Data
Exchanges
TOP 20 MARKETS: FEBRUARY DATA
February Leaderboard
Source: Yipit Data (http://yipit.com/data)
Site Count Avg. Sold Revenue Revenue/DealGroupon 2,116 730 $39,007,032 $18,584LivingSocial 627 629 $11,676,824 $20,029BuyWithMe 353 ? ? ?Gilt City 324 ? ? ?Travelzoo Local Deals 105 599 $2,974,498 $36,274DealFind 47 600 $1,193,129 $25,938WagJag 58 564 $1,004,956 $17,327
Top February Offer
Dealfind (Toronto)The Butchers – 69% off$627K revenue11,404 soldRevenue Index: 18.5x
Source: Yipit Data (http://yipit.com/data)
Revenue Varies by Category
Source: Yipit Data (http://yipit.com/data)
Price for Revenue OR Volume
Source: Yipit Data (http://yipit.com/data)
MERCHANT ECONOMICS
Breakage Rate ≤20%
Recent data on Groupon is consistent: (i) breakage of 10% (TechCrunch, 8/14/10), and (ii) 20% redemption in month 1 and 15% redemption in month 12 (Chicago Tribune 8/16/10).
Profitable at 19% Retention
Assumptions from industry research and Yipit phone survey of SMBs who have completed a Daily Deal in the last 12 months. 80 responses.
Merchant Profitability Per Voucher
Drivers Gross Profit / VoucherDeal Assumptions Existing CustomersDeal Value $50 Revenue from Groupon $2.2
Deal Discount 50% Revenue from Overage1 1.1Deal Price $25 Revenue from Existing Customers 3.2Overage % 14% Less: COGS 3.4Commission % 40% Less: Cannabalized GP 1.8Cost of Goods Sold % 40% GP from Existing Customers ($2.0)Credit Card Fee % 2.5%
GP from Breakage $2.9Buyer Mix AssumptionsUnredeemed (Breakage) % 20% New CustomersCurrent Customer % 20% Revenue from Groupon $8.6
New Customer % 60% Revenue from Overage1 4.2Revenue from Existing Customers 12.8
Repeat Visitor Assumptions Less: COGS 13.7
Conversion to Repeat %23 19% GP from Existing Customers ($0.9)Repeat Visits 3Vouchers per Customer 1.5 New Repeat CustomersCurrent Customers Already Going % 25% Revenue from Repeat Customers $13.0
Less: COGS 5.2GP from Existing Customers $7.8
Incremental GP / Voucher $7.9
High Merchant SatisfactionWould You Use a Daily Deal Site for Another Promo-
tion?
Yes 93%No 7%
Data from Yipit phone survey of SMBs who have completed a Daily Deal in the last 12 months. 80 responses.Groupon’s reports repeat interest at 97% (grouponworks.com)
Shifting Ad SpendReducing Other Advertising Spend After Running Daily Deal
Yes 43%No 57%
Data from Yipit phone survey of SMBs who have completed a Daily Deal in the last 12 months. 80 responses.
THANK YOU
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Thank You
blog.yipit.com@jdmoran