greentech boom, sustainable innovation - conference keynote speaker
DESCRIPTION
http://www.globalchange.com Energy saving using new street lamps, better heating and cooling, building controls. Part of keynote on the $40 trillion green tech revolution which could transform the future of our planet, with innovations that will provide answers to global warming if rolled out on a large enough scale. Impact of technologies already available in energy industry, water conservation, carbon reduction, recycling, power transmission over long distances, alternative power generation, buildings management.TRANSCRIPT
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
How innovation can help save the world
from climate change and boost economies
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of
15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most
influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)
Greentech Boom, Sustainable innovation
(2009)
500 videos of keynotes
www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon
Over 4 million views
Dixon’s Futurist Website
www.globalchange.com/
14 million unique visitors.
Structure 1. Economy and energy price
2. Science of global warming
3. Saving
4. Generation
5. Trading
6. Conclusions
Sustainability
Wild Cards: Risk Management
Low probability, high impact events
Wild Cards: Risk Management
Low probability, high impact events
Future of Iran nuclear programme
Bird Flu – could
kill 100 million
10% Cleveland homes repossessed
1 in 146 homes new action in Nevada
744,000 homeless in July 2008 – Las Vegas Bus Tour
Lessons from post-war recoveries
Markets rapidly re-appear
Massive innovation / entrepreneurship
Those with cash often become very wealthy
Fight to build monopolies of scarce items
Government Fear of Deflation
Over-reaction
Delayed impact of fiscal measures
Big cycles of boom and bust likely to follow
Economic instability flexible strategy
Large corporations already changing
Consumer attention
Activist pressures
New regulations
Corporate image
Cause-related marketing
Personal decisions by employees
Huge pressure to reduce costs
Anticipating government regulation
AND ANOTHER REASON........
What will future oil prices be?
Impact on viability of innovation
Global Warming - facts
400,000 square miles of Arctic ice
have melted in the last 30 years
Global Warming - Summary G Gases
L Light
O Orbit
B Balance
A Acceleration
L Land use
W Wet
A Arid
R Radical
M Migration
I Innovation
N Nuclear
G Global government
Source: „Vostok“ (Antarctica) ice cores, World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, NOAA,
Boulder, CO, USA
Future?
x
CO2 and Earth Temperature
Dip equivalent to 0.5 mile of ice over
some of northern hemisphere 15,000
years ago
How to save >20% global emissions...
1% Global GDP
$400-500bn each year
Stabilise at 500-550 parts per million
(ppm) by 2050
up from 450 ppm today
Stern report $400-500 billion a year to be spent on
- Gas supply and distribution 25%
- Refined petroleum 24%
- Electricity production and distribution 16%
- Cement production 19%
- Fertilisers production and use 5%
- Fishing 5%
Examples Global Reductions in CO2
Carbon offsets 20% all figs by 2030
Heat pumps 2%
Carbon capture 3.6%
Electric cars 0.5%
Low energy streetlights 2%
Polymer 1%
Wind power 5%
Solar 5%
Aviation 1.5%
Shipping 1%
Other Big Savings in Carbon
Insulation
Nanotechnology
Nuclear power
Consumers need to understand the
reality
Make Buildings Last 30% + of lifetime energy use = build and demolish
Build to Last 30% building energy is construct and demolish
E-Crete
Concrete industry = 5-7% global CO2
Geoplymers such as E-crete (power station ash)
Jannie Van Deventer, University of Melbourne,
founder Zeobond.
Polymer concrete 7% global emissions is concrete use
Save 10% construction energy in new buildings
50% world’s concrete production would save 1bn
tons C02 in 10 years
Save 2-3% global emissions
Potential sales EU £5bn
Heat Pumps
70% new buildings in Sweden
45% new buildings in New Zealand
30% new buildings in Switzerland
Up to 50% energy savings
Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand
Heat Pumps £30bn pa EU
If half UK homes next 20 years
50,000 pa
Plus retrofits 1% 25m homes
300k total installations pa
Heat pump sales £10-15bn
Rebalancing Air Conditioning
Energy saving 30-50%
More stable temperature
Intelligent
Green Roofs
CH2 Building Melbourne
Chicago 214,000 square metres
Roof temperature reduced 30 deg C in
Summer . Surrounding area cooler by
9 deg
California – rapid takeup
Toronto: 8% green-roofed would lower
heat island by < 2 degrees
12% German roofs are “green
Tokyo: 20% new roofs = “green”. If 50%
all roofs green, save $1m a day in cooling
Street Lights
5 2% of US energy
120 million EU street
lamps
75% replace in 15 years
at unit cost of $750
including labour
Low energy streetlights
Cost replacing all 120 m EU streetlights
£300bn saving £50bn a year at 2008 prices
Market £15bn pa over 15 years
LED low voltage lights
Plasma screens energy us is 4x cathode ray tubes If all UK plasmas on at once would need
2.5 new nuclear power stations
Green IT
Web 5.3% global power use
9.4% US
1 trillion kwh
50% = PCs on homes / offices
=1 bn people running fan heaters for an hour
Web traffic x 40-100 times in 15 years
Servers 1% global power
50,000 squ metre data server is 5 megwatts
– enough to power 5000 homes
Green It saves 50% power
Better cooling, fibreoptics,
turning off spare capacity
Virtual servers
Standbys waste 5 m tons co2
US alone
Electric Cars
Assume 10% smallest
cars are electric cars
within 10yrs
Could increase power
consumption by 20% -
but low cost at night
Electric cars – more efficient than
burning fuel in mobile engines –
20% energy saving in 20% of
vehicle miles driven in developed
nations = 4% saving in motoring.
Estimate 0.5% .
Aviation efficiency – multiple
efficiencies reduce energy use per
passenger kilometre flown by 35% -
1.5%
Shipping efficiency – 20% saving of
energy, of 5% global emissions from
shipping is 1%
Capture Manufacturing Heat
Lafarge Plasterboard: saves 15% energy
1,600 tons a year
Same as 370 cars
$400k cost with payback time 5 years
Smart Power Regulation
Variable pricing
Australia Power Shortage
40% energy = heat, cool, light buildings
Air conditioning 7% green-house gases
Peak electricity jumps 57%
10% capacity used 4 days a year
Average $50 peak $10,000 per MWhr
Managing peak demand
Automatic meter readings
Variable pricing
Time and weather sensitive discounting
20 million acres lost
33% 2007 corn crop
fuel
EU also 5% gasoline and
diesel from food by 2010
18% of 2008 US grain fuel
Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Mauritania, Niger,
Uzbekistan, Senegal, Haiti, Bolivia Indonesia
Cameroon 24 people killed, 1,600 arrested
Indonesia 10,000 outside presidential palace -soya bean
prices rose >50% in a month
Egypt 7 people die in fights or of exhaustion queuing for
subsidised bread
Burkina Faso Riots in three towns
Guinea Five anti-government riots last 18mths
Pakistan 1000s of troops guard food trucks
“Crime against humanity”
“The United States and the European Union have
taken “criminal path” by contributing to explosive
rise in global food prices through using food
crops to produce biofuels”
UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food
UN Press Release: 28 April 2008
Wind Power
$4m to build - 20 years
Payback 5 years
US sales of small
turbines likely to exceed
100,000 a year
Texas 1 gigawatt unit
Who pays?
Marketing
budget ?
McDonalds
Wind Turbines EU Growth
30% growth pa
Denmark 19%, Germany 6%
Cost 4p /kwh
Challenges – location, distance,
unreliable
Wind Turbines Sales
Market <£6bn pa UK alone aiming 20,000 more turbines
by 2020
80 metre blades local manufacture
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
7,000 times total power use
Solar Cells = $500 / ton saved
but costs will fall fast towards
10c / KwH in hot countries
Nuclear energy
Expect rapid growth of new reactors
Wild card will be dirty terror bomb or a meltdown
Large atoms split
Small atoms fuse
Offsetting – needed but controversial
Solar cells: £10k to save 40 tons
Cost per ton £250
Offsetting: £10k into hydro-
power saves 700 tons
Cost per ton £15
Offsetting Business eg Wood burning furnaces for schools
Carbon trading
World’s largest derivative market ?
US contracts grew 131% 2006
Expect £50bn pa by 2012 > 1 bn tons
Offsetting Calculator 1 ton of carbon emitted as carbon dioxide =
£10-15 to offset
Concrete = 1 ton of carbon per ton of product
Short haul return flight = 1 ton
Executive car driven 12,000 miles = 4 tons
Gas bill of £550 = 1 ton
Electricity bill of £1350 = 1 ton
Carbon Capture Burn in O2 – 100% capture
Absorber plus solvent – 90% capture
Store gas / oil field or deep ocean or saline aquifers
Carbon Capture Capacity Canada could store 1.3 trillion tons CO2
– enough to last 100 years
Only 3 pilot projects running combined
storage 3m tons pa but US makes 1.5bn
tons a year
EU carbon capture
2020 all new coal fired generators should
include Carbon Capture and Storate
Increase prices by 1-2p /kwh
Cost capturing a ton should fall from £20-
45 down to £12.
Vattenfall, Shell, RWE, Statoil
Carbon Capture Market 2010-2030
$500bn
$1bn / plant
Government Action (EU)
Subsidies 58% for fossil fuels
29% for nuclear
Regulations Will impact energy markets for 50 years
Moore’s law
Computing doubled every 18 months
INNOVATION
CPU Transistor counts 1971 - 2008
1 to 1000 in 10 doublings
1 to 1 million in 20 doublings
1 to 1 billion in 30 doublings
SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE
GROWS FAST
40 years 1 1 million transistors
Nanotech $m
Energy
Consulting
Expect 5% of all
$40 trillion
expenditure
over 20 years on
reducing carbon
Carbon Diet C Carbon capture
A Alternative
energy
R Recycling
B Build to last
O Offsetting
N Neutral life
D Damage
limitation
I Insulation
E Electric vehicles
T Taxation and
subsidies
Examples Global Reductions in CO2
Carbon offsets 20% all figs by 2030
Heat pumps 2%
Carbon capture 3.6%
Electric cars 0.5%
Low energy streetlights 2%
Polymer 1%
Wind power 5%
Solar 5%
Aviation 1.5%
Shipping 1%
Structure 1. Economy and energy price
2. Science of global warming
3. Saving
4. Generation
5. Trading
6. Conclusions
For individuals
For family
For community
For whole earth
Globalchange.com/ppt/greentech
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of
15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most
influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)
Greentech Boom, Sustainable innovation
(2009)
500 videos of keynotes
www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon
Over 4 million views
Dixon’s Futurist Website
www.globalchange.com/
14 million unique visitors.