greeen jobs bcsea green jobs copy

Download greeen jobs Bcsea green jobs copy

Post on 02-Aug-2015

84 views

Category:

Documents

2 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

1. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2. Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia Join us! www.bcsea.org BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org 3. BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org Our vision is a sustainable future in which all of BCs energy is green and renewable. 4. Oracle Research, March 2015 5. Oracle Research, March 2015 6. Oracle Research, March 2015 7. Oracle Research, March 2015 8. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com G-7 Summit, 2015 9. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com The G-7 Summit, Germany, 2015 Agreement to full decarbonization by 2100 10. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com The Canadian and Japanese governments prevented G-7 consensus to decarbonize by 2050. 11. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com By 2050 By 2100 12. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com DENMARK: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 13. 2C 14. 2C is the boundary between dangerous and very dangerous. James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist 15. for a 75% chance that the global temperature will not rise by 2C The 2015 Global Carbon Budget 493 Gigatonnes of CO2 16. The 2040 Imperative 17. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year 25 Mt CO2 reduction 18. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year renewable energy increase 19. BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org 20. HOW MANY FOSSIL FUEL JOBS WILL END? HOW MANY NEW JOBS WILL BE CREATED? 21. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Green Jobs in Canada in the Transition towards a 100% Renewable Energy Economy UNPUBLISHED REPORT 22. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Direct Jobs Induced Jobs Indirect Jobs 23. Indirect Job: Making Solar 24. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Induced Job: Spending Solar Earnings Solar worker Farmer $$$ 25. Direct Job: Installing Solar 26. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Direct Jobs Indirect Jobs Most of the numbers in this presentation do not include induced jobs 27. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Canada has 555,000 direct and indirect jobs in fossil fuels 28. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 29. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 30. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs disappear each year. If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs disappear each year. 555,000 Direct and Indirect Fossil Fuel Jobs 31. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Where will the new jobs be? 1. Renewable Electricity 2. Building Retrofits 3. Railway Electrification 4. Cycling 5. Electric Vehicles 6. Transit 7. Farming If by 2040: Can they create 22,000 new jobs a year? If by 2050: Can they create 16,000 new jobs year? 32. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2040 33. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2040 34. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2040 35. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2040 36. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2040 37. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 2040 38. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 1,000,000,000 Kilowatt Hours kWh 1,000 Gigawatt Hours GWh 1 Terawatt Hour TWh 1,000,000 Megawatt Hours MWh = == 39. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Electricity Demand in 2014 511 TWh 40. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Electricity Demand in 2014 511 TWh Electricity Demand in 2040 750 TWh 41. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Electricity Demand in 2014 511 TWh Electricity Demand in 2040 750 TWh Renewable Electricity in 2013 330 TWh 42. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Electricity Demand in 2014 511 TWh Electricity Demand in 2040 750 TWh Renewable Electricity in 2013 330 TWh New Renewables Needed by 2040 420 TWh 43. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Electricity Demand in 2014 511 TWh Electricity Demand in 2040 750 TWh Renewable Electricity in 2013 330 TWh New Renewables Needed by 2040 420 TWh 44. 1977: $77 1997: $7 2015: $0.6 Price of Solar PV per Watt A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV since 1977 45. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Solar: 100 TWh 3,280 MW installed per year 18 Direct and Indirect Jobs per MW 101,000 installation jobs/year + 1,700 rising to 42,000 O&M jobs/year 46. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Wind 150 TWh 1,960 MW installed per year 8.6 Direct and Indirect Jobs per MW 29,000 installation jobs/year + 700 rising to 15,000 O&M jobs/year 47. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Geothermal 170 TWh 8400 MW installed per year 10.7 Direct and Indirect Jobs per MW 15,000 installation jobs/year + 600 rising to 14,000 O&M jobs/year 48. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Installation Operation/Maintenance Per Year Year 1 Year 25 Solar 101,000 1,700 42,000 Wind 29,000 700 15,000 Geothermal 15,000 600 14,000 TOTAL 145,000 3,000 71,000 49. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Renewable Electricity Total Jobs Year 1 Year 25 Solar 102,700 142,000 Wind 29,700 44,000 Geothermal 15,600 29,000 TOTAL 148,000 215,000 50. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com The Levelized Cost of Power US$/MWh Coal-fired 66-151 Natural gas 61-17 Solar PV Utility scale 60-86 Solar PV Commercial Rooftop 126-177 Solar PV Residential Rooftop 180-265 Wind 37-81 Geothermal 89-142 Conservation 0-50 Source: Lazard, 2014 Source: Lazard, 2014 51. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Lazard, 2014 52. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.comBuilding Energy Retrofits 53. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Building Retrofit Jobs 90% of buildings $ investment per building $ billion per year Jobs per year Residential 11,250,000 $10,000 $4.5 67,500 C & I 432,000 $50,000 $1.7 25,500 Total 93,000 Total, assuming 90% of buildings 93,000 jobs a year 54. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Cycling Economy Jobs 1% cycling trip share 4,000 jobs 25% cycling trip share 103,000 jobs 55. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Year 1 Year 25 1% Trip Share 160 jobs 4,000 jobs 25% Trip Share 4,000 jobs 103,000 jobs 12.5% Trip Share 2,000 jobs 50,000 jobs 56. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric Cars: The $$ spent on electricity stays in Canada 1,000 ! 25,000 new Induced Jobs 57. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Railway Electrification 50,000 kilometres 14,000 jobs a year 58. 100% Electric Buses: No New Jobs 59. Major Increase in Transit: Thousands of New Jobs 60. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com 61. Transit Expansion Jobs Installation Jobs Operational Jobs Year 1 28,000 13,000 Year 25 28,000 338,000 Extrapolated for all of urban Canada from the Metro Vancouver Mayors Transportation Plan 62. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Farming 63. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com "# Nitrogen Fertilizer All conventional farming depends on nitrogen fertilizers made using natural gas $ CH4 "# 64. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Organic Farming 32% more jobs 65. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Canada: 305,000 direct jobs in farming 32% increase = 98,000 new jobs Year 1: 5,000 new jobs Year 25: 98,000 new jobs 66. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Year 1 By Year 25 Renewables 148,000 215,000 Building Energy Retrofits 93,000 93,000 Cycling 12.5% trip-share 2,000 50,000 Transit Install 28,000 28,000 Transit Operating 13,000 338,000 EVs Induced Jobs 1,000 25,000 Organic Farming 5,000 98,000 TOTAL 290,000 847,000 Fossil Fuel Jobs Lost 22,000 555,000 JOB CREATION SUMMARY 67. Oracle Research, March 2015 68. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com 69. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com WHATS NEEDED? A MASSIVE POLITICAL COMMITMENT WE CAN DO IT 70. BCSEA 2014 www.bcsea.org Thank you! guydauncey@earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com