greatcell solar (gsl) 22 august 2017 perovskite solar cells, and 10 years of pilot scale ... global...

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The information contained in this report is provided by PAC Partners to Wholesale Investors Only. The information contained in this report is to be read in conjunction with other important disclosures at the end of this document. EQUITY RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION Speculative Buy Previous Speculative Buy Risk Rating Very High Current Share Price $0.19 12 Month Price Target $0.30 Price Target Methodology FY’20F EV/EBITDA 30x Total Return (Capital) 58% DCF Valuation $0.40 Market capitalisation $76m Liquidity Daily Value $0.2m Moving towards control of destiny Opportunity: +50% global solar & wind energy by 2020 Solar and wind energy need to grow from 15% to 33% of Australian electricity generation by 2030 to meet clean energy target (Ref: June'17 Finkel). Globally solar and wind is forecast to triple to 19% of electricity supply, driven by lower price and public support (Ref: Bloomberg Energy). 2030 too far away to interest you! Please consider … There will be 50% growth of global solar and wind electricity generation over the next three years. Most of these projects are approved and the rest are in detailed study phase (+1,500 to 2,200 TWh, Ref: Bloomberg Energy). Traditional silicon solar and onshore wind turbine will grab most of this short term surge because they are proven, despite being 50% higher cost than conventional fossil fuels. This step change in sustainable energy demand will drive next generation of solar, wind and storage alternatives. Advantage: GSL has most proven next generation solar Perovskite Solar Cell (PSC) leads the next generation solar from “peer” organic solar cells. GSL has the most proven approach of six foundation PSC licence holders. GSL has the: highest solar to electricity conversion efficiency; longest application experience at pilot scale; and, premium global partners in glass (Pilkington), titanium (Tasnee-Cristal- Tronox), R&D (EPFL, CSIRO), solar (Jinko), building products (CSR, Tata-Corus), production/engineering (VDL). Commercial phase underway….NOW! Recent Australian Government and industry funding commitment of $8.5m and current SPP of $5m enable a module of commercial scale production to be built alongside CSIRO energy hub in Melbourne. GSL aims to supply PSCs for 2x 20MW solar facilities and earn $4m EBITDA in FY’20F. INVESTMENT VIEW Spec Buy Price Target $0.30/share Our price target considers GSL a technology enabler for a global partner. Success with first module should attract more funding and allow GSL 25+% ownership of panel producers. Financial Forecasts & Valuation Metrics Y/e ($m) 17F 18F 19 F 20F Revenue 1.1 1.2 1.5 12.0 Gov’t Grant 8.5 Milestone 0.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 EBITDA (11.8) (11.8) (6.2) 4.0 NPAT (9.2) (9.2) (3.9) 4.8 EPS (cps) (2.5) (2.4) (0.9) 1.1 DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 18.7x PER (x) 16.8x Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net cash 0.6 0.1 0.5 4.5 GSL Milestones & Risks 2HCY’17 Stress test prototype Major Area Demonstration (MAD) PSC at 450x600mm and 600x1200mm, order long lead time items. Detailed design for commercial scale module 1HCY’18 Start construction of Pilot Line 2HCY’18 Commission commercial module and award contract to build 20MW power plant 1HCY’19 Customer starts construction of 20MW power plant and uses 40k panels (270 made per day over 2HCY’19). RISKS and response: GSL needs to hit milestones each quarter with a wide range of new and old partners. These partners may not have same priorities as GSL. We allow six months delay Trade secret and patent protection is strong, but there are likely to be challenges along the way. Partners assist. $5m funding is required in SPP for GSL to stay on time, and more is required for GSL to control additional modules and lift from 25% assumed in our model large production facility. GSL has alternatives for funding. Source: PAC Partners estimates KEY POINTS Global solar and wind electricity generation should lift by 50% by 2020 and spur on lower cost alternatives. GSL appears to be the best positioned next generation solar technology company from its 15 years of leadership with Perovskite Solar Cells, and 10 years of pilot scale demonstration plants with strong global partners. Recent Australian Government and industry funding commitment of $8.5m and current SPP of $5m will enable one module of commercial scale production to be built. GSL aims to supply cells for two demonstration 20MW solar facilities and earn $4m EBITDA in FY’20F. GreatCell Solar (GSL) formerly Dyesol (DYE.ASX, D51.GR) Global partners and local funding validate solar technology 22 August 2017 Research Team [email protected]

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The information contained in this report is provided by PAC Partners to Wholesale Investors Only.

The information contained in this report is to be read in conjunction with other important disclosures at the end of this document.

EQUITY RESE ARCH

RECOMMENDATION Speculative Buy

Previous Speculative Buy

Risk Rating Very High

Current Share Price $0.19

12 Month Price Target $0.30

Price Target Methodology FY’20F EV/EBITDA 30x

Total Return (Capital) 58%

DCF Valuation $0.40

Market capitalisation $76m

Liquidity – Daily Value $0.2m

Moving towards control of destiny

Opportunity: +50% global solar & wind energy by 2020

Solar and wind energy need to grow from 15% to 33% of Australian electricity generation by 2030 to meet clean energy target (Ref: June'17 Finkel). Globally solar and wind is forecast to triple to 19% of electricity supply, driven by lower price and public support (Ref: Bloomberg Energy).

2030 too far away to interest you! Please consider …

There will be 50% growth of global solar and wind electricity generation over the next three years. Most of these projects are approved and the rest are in detailed study phase (+1,500 to 2,200 TWh, Ref: Bloomberg Energy).

Traditional silicon solar and onshore wind turbine will grab most of this short term surge because they are proven, despite being 50% higher cost than conventional fossil fuels. This step change in sustainable energy demand will drive next generation of solar, wind and storage alternatives.

Advantage: GSL has most proven next generation solar

Perovskite Solar Cell (PSC) leads the next generation solar from “peer” organic solar cells. GSL has the most proven approach of six foundation PSC licence holders. GSL has the: highest solar to electricity conversion efficiency; longest application experience at pilot scale; and, premium global partners in glass (Pilkington), titanium (Tasnee-Cristal-Tronox), R&D (EPFL, CSIRO), solar (Jinko), building products (CSR, Tata-Corus), production/engineering (VDL).

Commercial phase underway….NOW!

Recent Australian Government and industry funding commitment of $8.5m and current SPP of $5m enable a module of commercial scale production to be built alongside CSIRO energy hub in Melbourne. GSL aims to supply PSCs for 2x 20MW solar facilities and earn $4m EBITDA in FY’20F.

INVESTMENT VIEW – Spec Buy Price Target $0.30/share

Our price target considers GSL a technology enabler for a global partner. Success with first module should attract more funding and allow GSL 25+% ownership of panel producers.

Financial Forecasts & Valuation Metrics

Y/e ($m) 17F 18F 19 F 20F

Revenue 1.1 1.2 1.5 12.0

Gov’t Grant 8.5

Milestone 0.0 5.0 10.0 0.0

EBITDA (11.8) (11.8) (6.2) 4.0

NPAT (9.2) (9.2) (3.9) 4.8

EPS (cps) (2.5) (2.4) (0.9) 1.1

DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EV / EBITDA (x) 18.7x

PER (x) 16.8x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net cash 0.6 0.1 0.5 4.5

Source: PAC Partners estimates

GSL Milestones & Risks

2HCY’17 – Stress test prototype Major Area Demonstration

(MAD) PSC at 450x600mm and 600x1200mm, order long lead time items. Detailed design for commercial scale module

1HCY’18 – Start construction of Pilot Line

2HCY’18 – Commission commercial module and award

contract to build 20MW power plant

1HCY’19 – Customer starts construction of 20MW power plant

and uses 40k panels (270 made per day over 2HCY’19).

RISKS and response:

GSL needs to hit milestones each quarter with a wide range of new and old partners. These partners may not have same priorities as GSL. We allow six months delay

Trade secret and patent protection is strong, but there are likely to be challenges along the way. Partners assist.

$5m funding is required in SPP for GSL to stay on time, and more is required for GSL to control additional modules and lift from 25% assumed in our model large production facility. GSL has alternatives for funding.

Source: PAC Partners estimates

KEY POINTS

Global solar and wind electricity generation should lift by 50% by 2020 and spur on lower cost alternatives.

GSL appears to be the best positioned next generation solar technology company from its 15 years of leadership with Perovskite Solar Cells, and 10 years of pilot scale demonstration plants with strong global partners.

Recent Australian Government and industry funding commitment of $8.5m and current SPP of $5m will enable one module of commercial scale production to be built.

GSL aims to supply cells for two demonstration 20MW solar facilities and earn $4m EBITDA in FY’20F.

GreatCell Solar (GSL) formerly Dyesol (DYE.ASX, D51.GR)

Global partners and local funding validate solar technology

22 August 2017

Research Team

[email protected]

PAC Partners | Equity Research GreatCell Solar (GSL)

Page 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Summary SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Solar opportunity and Perovskite Solar Cells ............................................................................................................................ 3 Solar and wind electricity generation growth is significant ............................................................................................................ 3 Perovskite solar cell (PSC) is well positioned ............................................................................................................................... 3

Greatcell Solar’s platform, partners and plan ............................................................................................................................ 4 Platform ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Plan & funding .............................................................................................................................................................................. 4

Peer Group, EV/EBITDA .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Only 16 of large (>US$500m Mcap) solar companies listed ......................................................................................................... 6 GSL versus local peers ................................................................................................................................................................ 7

Milestones and Cashflow ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Milestones .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Cashflow and financial forecasts .................................................................................................................................................. 8

Investment view and valuation .................................................................................................................................................... 9

Risks ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 10

Financial Model ........................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Contact Information .................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Recommendation Criteria ........................................................................................................................................................... 13

SUMMARY SWOT

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

20 years of focused development, led by founders until

2010, and then Richard Caldwell. Stable R&D team

Proven performance at pilot scale in Europe and Asia

with glass and steel backing

People & Partners: Executive team and Board come

from strong ASX listed experience, and partners are global leaders in solar technology (EPFL, CSIRO), large scale solar cell manufacture/distribution (Jinko), glass (Pilkington), titanium (Cristal-Tronox), building products (CSR, Tata-Corus), and production/engineering (VDL).

Quality assurance and Occupational Health & Safety

will be tested during this high growth phase, especially with stop/start nature of new plant and demonstration phase

Small scale at start and earnings may be volatile with

GSL being dependent on meeting milestones with first production facility and demonstration plant

$10m of funding required over next 12 months for GSL

time line, and controlling pilot production facility for MAD solar cells. $6m Gov’t is contingent on $5m from SPP

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Global market for solar and wind electricity generation is set to triple by 2030, and rise 50% per

annum by 2020 with approved projects underway

Perovskite Solar Cells (PSC) are at forefront of next

generation low cost solar cells, and GSL is large scale leader of the PSC players

Multiple channels to market for PSC allow GSL to start

in glass around buildings and move to steel roofs and then to cars and consumer electronics

Regulatory changes to solar and sustainable energy and geopolitical risk can delay adoption of any

infrastructure, particularly new technologies

These partners may not have same priorities as GSL.

We allow a 6 months delay over next two years

Trade secret and patent protection is strong, but there

are likely to be challenges along the way.

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 3

SOLAR AND WIND ELECTRICITY GENERATION GROWTH IS SIGNIFICANT

In order to reach global renewable energy targets, solar and wind generation need to growth at 50%pa for the next three years.

Global electricity generation mix to 2040

Levelised cost of electricity generation from Wind and Solar stayed around US$120-150/MWh vs. Coal at US$40-60/MWh through 2010 to 2015 …

…but with Coal pushing towards US$80/MWh with higher reinvestment cost for plant and network and CO2 abatement…

…and Solar pushing down to US$100/MWh with larger scale, cheaper batteries and closer to network the tide is turning

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, New Energy Outlook 2017

PEROVSKITE SOLAR CELL (PSC) IS WELL POSITIONED

Perovskite Solar Cell (PSC – orange/yellow line below) is well positioned. PSC has similar solar to electricity conversion efficiency as the two commercial applications: 1st generation silicon (blue); and, 2nd generation thin film (green). Higher solar conversion technologies (multijunction – purple) are aimed at high cost niche markets (eg: outer space).

Solar to Electricity Conversion (%) PSC vs Silicon over day. PSC LCOE vs. Eff

PSC laboratory scale 1cm2 solar to electricity conversion has almost doubled 2013 Dye Solar Cells to 22.1%...

…on par with 1st and 2

nd

generation solar

PSC has achieved 13.8% with 10cm2 strip…

…and significantly better conversion over the day vs 1

st generation

solar

Makes GSL confident of US$30/MWh cost base with 5% conversion efficiency at full scale 600x1200mm cells

Ref: Netherlands NREL. PSC = yellow + brown outline Ref: GSL. LCOE at U$450/panel of 0.72m2/panel

Solar opportunity and Perovskite Solar Cells

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 4

Dye Solar Cells (DSC)… PLATFORM

…started in 1990 and… EPFL developed Dye Solar Cells in the 1990’s and GSL has one of the six foundation licences.

…lifted solar to electricity eff to 22%

Over 100 laboratories, including GSL’s large Queanbeyan R&D facility, around the world have contributed to lifting solar to electricity conversion to 22% vs. just 10% for Organic Solar Cells.

More than double peer Organic Solar Cell

Dye Solar Cells mimic natural plant based photosynthesis and are compared with another third generation solar technology Organic Solar Cells due to similar photosynthesis action.

GSL has access to core R&D, its patent and trade secrets…

Under the EPFL arrangement GSL receives all basic research updates to Dye Solar Cells, such as upgrade from liquid Dye Solar Cells to solid Perovskite Solar Cells in 2012. GSL can also add its own research developments to product, and keep application patents and trade secrets for commercial application.

… and platform of: GSL has the most commercially proven approach of six foundation PSC licence holders with:

60 strong workforce 60 strong work global work force, including 27 PhDs, across five countries;

Pilot scale applications since 2010

Pilot scale application experience at pilot scale since 2010 with steel and glass backed projects in United Kingdom, Australia and Korea;

Supply to 100 R&D labs Key supplier of PSC materials to over 100 research facilities with ~$1m/pa revenue:

Largest scale solar cells Made the largest scale PSC cells (450mm x 650mm, 0.29m2), and is now making

commercial scale prototypes (600mm x 1200mm, 0.72m2).

PARTNERS

Over 10 yrs GSL has added partners from…

GSL has developed strong partnerships over the last 10 years, and is now ready for the commercial phase of PSC development. Key partners include:

Leading Swiss and Australian solar R&D…

R&D (EPFL, CSIRO) – Michael Grätzel is a professor at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland and the leader of Dye Solar Cells. He sits on

GSL’s Technology Advisory Board. CSIRO is Australia’s leading government backed research group with special solar energy facility in Clayton, Melbourne.

… Titanium/Solar industrial companies….

Titanium - Tasnee/Cristal/Tronox (Saudi Arabia/USA) –In February 2017, Tronox

(TROW.NYSE), a leader in global titanium dioxide based in USA, bought Tasnee –Cristal titanium dioxide. Tronox, with a major focus on renewable energy, has pledged support for GSL and will retain its 113.6m share (~28%).

Jinko – largest listed Chinese solar – Signed a non-exclusive memorandum of

understanding for evaluating PSC with a view to formalising an agreement to commercialise technology and set up large scale manufacturing.

…Building material suppliers…

Building products (CSR, Tata-Corus) - CSR (CSR.AX) is one of Australia’s largest

building supply companies, is a relatively new partner, which came in as partner with Australian Federal Government Cooperative Research Centres (CRC). Tata-Corus (India-UK) has been a long-time supporter for steel backed solar cells.

…Glass manufacturers…

Glass (Pilkington) - is a leading glass supplier to building and automotive industry. They

are a long-time supporter of GSL and have assisted the commercial application.

…and Engineering Production/engineering (VDL) – VTG ETG is a leading German industrial design company

for building and automotive industries.

PLAN & FUNDING

GSL has focused on BIPV (“Building-integrated photovoltaics”)…

GSL focus since 2010 is developing large scale solar energy solution for the building environment (BIPV is “Building-integrated photovoltaics”). There are big opportunities for local power generation in this market because: 40% of all electricity used in the developed world is used by commercial and residential buildings; and, 15% of electricity energy is “lost” through transmission from remote power stations to cities.

…with glass and steel GSL has developed two types of solar cells, steel and glass backed solar cells:

Funding backed steel and then glass backed panels

In 2000’s funding was available for steel back applications for Tata Corus. This was the tougher application because steel is a natural electricity conductor and required a layer of insulation. GSL was also challenged because early types of Dye Solar Cells were liquid and harder to contain and make robust for 25 year life on a roof.

Greatcell Solar’s platform, partners and plan

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 5

Technology changed from thick liquid DSC layer to thin solid PSC layer

Post 2010 GSL swung focus to glass solar cells and used development of PSC (a very thin film solid dye solar cell) and funding from Tasnee and Australian Government. Steel backed solar cells were also kept up to date and moved to thin layer PSC.

Business case changed from material supply to owner of panel maker

The very thin PSC layer made GSL change its business case from making margin from royalty and supplying materials to royalty and partial ownership of solar panel manufacturing facility.

GSL wants 100% ownership of first pilot line panel maker…

In order to keep control of the timeline and development of commercial ‘know how’ at large scale, GSL decided to own the majority of the first pilot line production facility for commercial glass backed PSC. This facility is priced at $10m if built in Australia, with favoured location Clayton, Melbourne, Australia. (Beside CSIRO’s solar energy facility and industrial research park.)

…and recent $6m ARENA with successful SPP closing later this month should lock in sufficient funding

GSL raised most of these funds with Australian Government CRC grant of $2.5m and recent awarding of $6m grant from ARENA (Australian Renewable Energy Council). This last grant is subject to GSL raising $5m with current SPP. With GSL share price at $0.19/share vs. offer at $0.18/share we would expect the SPP to be successful.

% ownership of future panel makers will rely on commercial package

Ownership of follow-on commercial lines beside the first at Melbourne CSIRO or other location will be determined by strength of: technology package GSL develops; GSL balance sheet; and, incentives from Government and funders.

We assume 25% & $15m milestone payments

Our base case assumes GSL receives modest milestone payments of $15m from (say) two commercial funders over 2019 and 2020 and GSL earning 25% of the revenue from panels.

GSL is aiming for significantly more

GSL aims to earn a more significant ownership portion of the solar production facility with strong commercial validation of PSC in the short term.

GSL commercialisation path for Perovskite Solar Cells

Source: Company Reports

GSL – Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation (US$/MWh)

An independent assessment of LCOE has used GSL’s small scale PSC data…

…and estimate PSC will be financially competitive at just 3% solar to electricity conversion…

…if retail cost is US$450 per installed panel

(ie: US$150/panel ex panel maker)

Ref: Professor Han. NIMS 2016. LCOE at U$450/panel of 0.72m2/panel (600x1200mm)

Efficiency - Solar to electricity

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 6

ONLY 16 OF LARGE (US$500+M MCAP) SOLAR COMPANIES LISTED

Tesla and SunPower have risen above commodity silicon solar

Only Tesla and SunPower have been able to generate high EV/EBITDA multiples by selling the dream of new electrical cars powered by conventional solar power (Tesla), and turn-around of a large conventional silicon solar cell manufacturer to an integrated solar generator owner and manufacturer (SunPower). Many solar companies are treated as “commodity industrials” due to low margin silicon solar panels.

Global Solar by Market Capital – Private dye solar cells in purple

Source: CapIQ, GSL/DYE PAC Partners estimates.

Peer Group, EV/EBITDA

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 7

GSL VERSUS LOCAL PEERS

10 solar ASX companies in 2010…

When we first picked up coverage of Australian Sustainable Energy sector in 2010 there were 10 solar companies. The largest pure renewable energy companies in Australia were Babcock and Brown Wind/Infigen (Wind) and IFM owned Pacific Hydro (delisted in 2005).

…have shrunk to two GSL and CCE…

Today the only pure solar energy company with Market Capital over $50m is GSL at ~$70m. Carnegie Clean Energy (MCap ~$140m) which has early stage wave energy technology and recently added conventional solar energy with lithium ion battery through joint venture with Lend Lease.

…and there are only a handful of others

The ASX listed sustainable energy companies (and uranium energy technology) include:

Solar(GSL - solar, CCE – wave and solar),

Wind - Infigen (INF – MCap $760m),

Geothermal/Biogas – Renu (RNU, MCap $11m),

Uranium Enrichment – Silex (SLX, MCap $61m)

Most have underperformed ASX200

Most sustainable energy companies have underperformed the ASX200 index (XJO). Interestingly for solar supporters, CCE has been the major outperformer since it added its Solar JV with Lendlease in November 2016.

Australian Sustainable Energy – GSL/DYE, INF, CCE, RNE vs ASX200 over last year

With CCE being only outperformer…

…since it has added conventional solar/battery division beside early stage wave

PAC Partners sees a positive re-rating of GSL over next 12 months.

Source: Iress

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 8

MILESTONES

Each half over next two years is a solid step

2HCY’17 – Stress test prototype Major Area Demonstration (MAD) PSC at 450x600mm and

600x1200mm, order long lead time items. Detailed design for commercial scale module

1HCY’18 – Start construction of Pilot Line

2HCY’18 – Commission commercial module and award contract to build 20MW power plant

1HCY’19 – Customer starts construction of 20MW power plant and uses 40k panels (270

made per day over 2HCY’19).

CASHFLOW AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS

Cash Flow ($m) 25% ownership

Cash flow is assisted with Government grants and equity raising over next two years…

…and then converts to free cash flow from…

… selling solar cells from 100% owned Pilot Line…

….$15m of milestone payments in FY’19 and FY’20 from commercial partner….

Source: Company reports and PAC Partners estimates

GSL – Financial Forecasts…

FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F FY22F

…and then 25% owned larger commercial plants from FY21

Revenue ($m) 1.2 1.2 1.5 12.0 9.5 11.5

Milestone payments ($m) 5.0 10.0

Solar panel sales(MW) 0 0 5.0 40.0 252 305

GSL % own panel makers 100% 100% 25% 25%

EBITDA ($m) (11.8) (11.8) (6.2) 4.0 2.7 3.7

EBITDA/panel ($/W) (1.24) (0.10) (0.11) (0.12)

Source: PAC Partners estimates

Milestones and Cashflow

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 9

Spec Buy and PT $0.30/share…

We rate GSL a Speculative Buy with Very High Risk and 12 Month Price Target of $0.30share, and long term Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) of $0.40/share.

…with GSL trading at 20x FY’20F EV/EBITDA…

…because it will be supplying solar cells at commercial scale from FY’20

Our 12 Month Price Target of $0.30/share is built in the following way:

We estimate GSL’s FY’20 EBITDA of $4m

We estimate GSL can trade at 30x FY’20 EV/EBITDA within 12 months. GSL will start

commercial operation of pilot line and deliver to 20MW demonstration plant.

Large solar companies are trading at 2-3x this multiple in FY’17 EV/EBITDA – see below

Solar peers – EV/EBITDA

First and second generation solar manufactures are trading at low 8x to 12x EV/EBITDA…

… only large solar companies with new angles (Tesla’s batteries and cars) and SunPower (power plant ownership and low cost conventional supply)…

…command premium multiples

PSC companies are all private, but are still raising considerable funds

Source: CapIQ, GSL is from PAC Partners estimates

Discounted Cash Flow - Detail

Source: PAC Partners

Investment view and valuation

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 10

Priorities of partners may differ from GSL

Timeline - GSL needs to hit milestones each quarter with a wide range of new and old partners. These partners may not have same priorities as GSL. We allow six months delay

Funding required for large ownership of solar cell production

Funding -$10m of funding is required in FY’18 for GSL keep on its time line, and own (we assume)

25% each production facility for solar cells. $6m of ARENA funding is contingent on GSL raising $5m from current SPP. GSL has many alternatives for funding

Quality assurance and Occupational Health & Safety will be tested during this high growth phase,

especially with stop/start nature of pilot line and production phase

Volatile earnings in short term

Small scale at start and earnings may be volatile with GSL being dependent on meeting

milestones with first production facility and demonstration plant

Uncertainty will delay process

Regulatory changes to solar and sustainable energy and geopolitical risk can delay adoption of

any infrastructure, particularly new technologies

Success may bring IP challenges

Trade secret and patent protection is strong, but there are likely to be challenges along the way,

particularly if GSL is very successful.

Key People Executive Chairman, Richard Caldwell, has been driving force behind GSL for last 10

years and has built a significant relationship network. There is a strong technical and commercial application team, and key people may be difficult to replace.

Risks

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 11

Financial Model

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 12

PAC Partners | Equity Research Greatcell Solar (GSL)

Page 13

CONTACT INFORMATION

CORPORATE FINANCE RESEARCH DEALING

CRAIG STRANGER Managing Director

[email protected]

03 8633 9832

PAUL JENSZ Executive Director - Research [email protected]

03 8633 9864

BRENDAN FOGARTY Corporate Sales – Melbourne [email protected]

03 8633 9866

SEAN KENNEDY Corporate Finance [email protected]

03 8633 9836

ANDREW SHEARER Senior Analyst [email protected]

03 8633 9862

PHIL CAWOOD Institutional Sales – Sydney [email protected]

02 9994 5552

ANTHONY STANI Corporate Finance [email protected]

03 9618 8251

ALEX SMITH Junior Analyst [email protected]

03 8633 9865

SEBASTIAN JURD Senior advisor – Sydney [email protected]

02 9994 5553

BROOKE PICKEN Equity Capital Markets [email protected]

03 8633 9831

LAWRENCE GRECH Analyst [email protected]

0404 052 913

RYAN GALE Advisor – Melbourne [email protected]

03 8633 9833

ROGER CHEN (Honk Kong) Analyst [email protected]

+852 2543 8600

TOM FAIRCHILD Corporate Sales – Melbourne [email protected]

03 8633 9867

IAN LEETE Corporate Sales – Sydney [email protected]

02 9994 5551

DANIEL GADALLA Desk Assistance – Melbourne [email protected]

03 8633 9834

MELBOURNE (Head Office)

Level 10, 330 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000

+61 3 8633 9831

SYDNEY

Level 9, 56 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000

+61 2 9233 9600

SOL JONES Desk Assistant – Sydney [email protected]

02 9994 5554

RECOMMENDATION CRITERIA

Investment View PAC Partners Investment View is based on an absolute 1-year total return equal to capital appreciation plus yield.

A Speculative recommendation is when a company has limited experience from which to derive a fundamental investment view.

Buy Hold Sell

>20% 20% – 5% <5%

Risk Rating PAC Partners has a four tier Risk Rating System consisting of: Very High, High, Medium and Low. The Risk Rating is a subjective rating based on: Management Track Record, Forecasting Risk, Industry Risk and Financial Risk including cash flow analysis.

Disclosure of Economic Interests The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Paul Jensz about the subject issuer and its securities. No part of the analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to any recommendation or view expressed in this report.

The following person(s) holds an economic interest in the securities covered in this report or other securities issued by the subject issuer which may influence this report:

the author of this report

a member of the immediate family of the author of this report

Disclaimer PAC Partners Pty Ltd. (“PAC Partners” or “PAC”) is a Corporate Authorised Representative of PAC Asset Management Pty Ltd holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. 335 374).

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