Great Lakes Nutrient Management & Water Quality:

Taking a wider view

Don Scavia

y = 0.2603e0.0018x R² = 0.8338

0

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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Maumee River Mar-Jun TP Load (MT)

Modified from Stumpf et al. 2012

Cya

no

bac

teri

a In

dex

Preventing Blooms is Most Protective

Strong Relationship between Summer Max bloom & Spring TP load

International Joint Commission Issued Lake Erie Ecosystem Priority (LEEP) report

Recommends new ~40% reduction targets Similar to Ohio Task Force recommendations Asks MI/OH to declare Western Basin impaired under CWA

Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Will set new goals for HAB, hypoxia, chlorophyll, benthic algae

New loading targets for Lake Erie by 2016 Calls for loads to be allocated among countries, watersheds TMDL-like, but not under CWA authority

Worked before --- but primarily on point sources

Most focus now is on conservation programs in the Farm Bill, but ….

Maumee River Watershed

“Feasible”

Bosch et al. 2013

Needed

This is not tinkering around

the edges!

Targets and approaches are not unlike dealing

with dead zones

Dead Zones Also Driven by Nutrient Loads

Chesapeake Bay

Lake Erie Central Basin Gulf of Mexico

… and all loads are driven primarily by industrial row crop

agriculture

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Hy

po

xia

are

a (

10

3k

m2)

NO3 (MT/day)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

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18.0

0.0E+00 1.0E+05 2.0E+05 3.0E+05 4.0E+05 5.0E+05

Hy

po

xic

v

olu

me

(km

3)

TN load (kg/day)

Load Reduction Targets across all three systems continue to be

within the 40-50% range …

… So, how are we approaching those?

$14.1 billion on Farm Bill conservation programs between 1995-2012 ~$340 million in WLEB during this time period. So, how's it working?

Primary policies and programs for controlling agricultural nutrient pollution are in the Farm Bill

Data from Environmental Working Group Website

Little change in TN load and Hypoxia in Gulf of Mexico Action Plans!

Almost no impact on loads

Little change in TN load and Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Little change in loads

Ph

yto

pla

nkt

on

Bio

mas

s (

wet

g/m

3)

Little impact on non-point source loads

Central Basin Dead Zone

Western Basin Algae

$14.1 billion on Farm Bill conservation programs between 1995-2012 ~$340 million in WLEB during this time period.

Primary policies and programs for controlling agricultural nutrient pollution are in the Farm Bill

Insanity:

Public health

Energy policy

Nutrition

Supply chain

Four contexts to add to Farm Bill Conservation measures

Are Drinking Water Impacts a Game Changer?

Toledo and other Lake Erie communities

Des Moines Water Works to sue 3 counties

Chance to move out from under "environment and agriculture" paradigm?

Use of Public Health/Public Trust drivers?

Ayn Rand, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan walk into a bar. The bartender serves them tainted alcohol because there are no regulations.

They die.

Regulation/public health mandate

Focus on regulation to protect human health!

Treat more of agriculture as point sources (aka Des Moines case)

Mandate action - not voluntary, incentive based -

to "protect human health and safety".

But, why so much corn?

Reduce demand for industrial corn

Change Irrational U.S. Energy Policy

2011 USDA statistics

What does this have to do with corn?

Animal Feed

Not much real food

Change American diet

Change American diet

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

N c

onsu

mpt

ion,

g p

erso

n -1 da

y -1

meat

… with obvious health Impacts

Nitrogen consumption in meat

Reduce demand for industrial corn

Linking health, dietary guidance, and the environment will promote human health and

the sustainability of natural resources and ensure current and long-term food security.

-- 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee

Imbed Environmental Impacts in Nutrition Guidance

The Committee directs the Secretary to ensure that the advisory committee

focuses only on nutrient and dietary recommendations based upon sound nutrition

science and not pursue an environmental agenda.

-- House Appropriations Committee

Change American diet

What if we ate less meat?

Impact the Supply Chain

To meet goal, they are requiring companies who use commodity grains to develop fertilizer optimization plans

Thus far, 15 major suppliers – representing 30 percent of food and

beverage sales in North America – have developed those plans

Is this enough? Focus is on Nitrogen What are next steps?

E.g., Walmart committed to reduce 20 MMT of GHG emissions from its supply chain

We need a National Coalition to add the following to the Farm Bill conservation programs:

• Regulate from a public health mandate

• Change U.S. energy policy

• Include "environment" in Nutrition Guidelines to help change American diet

• Focus on the supply chain

Great Lakes Nutrient Management & Water Quality:

Taking a wider view

Don Scavia