Grand OverviewGrand Overview

1.1. Over consumption will lead to resource Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventuallyscarcity eventually

2.2. Resource scarcity changes traditional Resource scarcity changes traditional economi models and puts us in new economi models and puts us in new territorityterritority

3. That time is near for fossil fuels as our 3. That time is near for fossil fuels as our energy foundationenergy foundation

4. New solutions do exist – implementation 4. New solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think bigtakes leadership and the ability to think big

Consumption is the sole end and pConsumption is the sole end and purpose of all productionurpose of all production

Adam Smith – right up there with Aristotle!

1942 Lecture1942 Lecture

• I do not think we will ever escape from the I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.upon sand.

Consumption with a ConscienceConsumption with a Conscience

The traditional Economic Argument The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!Does Not Scale!

Global Consequences of Global Global Consequences of Global ConsumptionConsumption

And Now we are at an Interesting And Now we are at an Interesting Point ($50-150 for crude oil) Point ($50-150 for crude oil) worldwide economic volatilityworldwide economic volatility

The Business As Usual Future –The Business As Usual Future –what’s the point – its time to what’s the point – its time to grow up nowgrow up now

JUST

SAY

NO TO

THIS

PATH

Continued Climate ChangeContinued Climate Change

What Are the BAU What Are the BAU Options?Options? LNG LNG

developmentdevelopment ““Clean Coal”Clean Coal” Fast Breeder Fast Breeder

ReactorsReactors Unconventional Unconventional

Oil sources (shale Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands)oil and tar sands)

Fastest gateway to Fastest gateway to energy economyenergy economy

Leads to Growth of Leads to Growth of GDPGDP

Accelerates Global Accelerates Global COCO22 Deposition Deposition

Reinforces BAU –Reinforces BAU –mine the planetmine the planet

Breaking out of BAU

Consume less Drive less Plan ahead Invest in Renewable

Energy infrastructure Have long term

governmental goals

Requires some component of morality based decision making

Requires leadership Requires world

cooperation

Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

But Many Options Now ExistBut Many Options Now Exist

Solar PVSolar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal ElectricSolar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol

(grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids)hybrids)

Biomass Co-GenerationBiomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf CurrentOTEC; Gulf Current

Barriers to RenewablesBarriers to Renewables

High capital cost; long payback timesHigh capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box Lack of any vision or out of the box

thinking on truly large scale projectsthinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and NIMBY reactions to anything and

everything makes implementation everything makes implementation difficultdifficult

Technology uncertaintyTechnology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitationsElectrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and ConsSolar Pros and Cons

ProsPros Resource is Resource is

availableavailable CSP technology CSP technology

rapidly improvingrapidly improving Many small scale Many small scale

applicationsapplications Thermal Electric is Thermal Electric is

dispatchabledispatchable Can co-locate with Can co-locate with

Fossil PlanFossil Plan

ConsCons Large $/Watt Large $/Watt

installation costsinstallation costs Large Scale (1000 Large Scale (1000

MW or greater) MW or greater) facilities difficultfacilities difficult

Requires Requires Significant Energy Significant Energy storage for 24x7storage for 24x7

Wind Pros and ConsWind Pros and Cons

ProsPros Low levelized costsLow levelized costs Small footprint on Small footprint on

the Landthe Land Applicable on both Applicable on both

large and small large and small scalescale

Some wind Some wind resources is usually resources is usually always presentalways present

ConsCons Visual PollutionVisual Pollution Resource is erratic Resource is erratic

in nature and in nature and therefore requires therefore requires energy storageenergy storage

Transmission line Transmission line expense for remote expense for remote wind farms is largewind farms is large

Transportation Transportation ChangesChanges ProsPros Single biggest Single biggest

lever arm for lever arm for energy energy conservationconservation

Single biggest Single biggest lever to mitigate lever to mitigate climate changeclimate change

Single biggest Single biggest influence on influence on developmentdevelopment

ConsCons Marx says we can’tMarx says we can’t Our whole economic Our whole economic

structure is based structure is based on private vehicleson private vehicles

Vast amounts of Vast amounts of jobs are associated jobs are associated with our current with our current structurestructure

OTEC; Gulf CurrentOTEC; Gulf Current

ProsPros Has enough Has enough

capacity to capacity to sustain world for sustain world for centuriescenturies

In situ Hydrogen In situ Hydrogen Production for Production for transport transport economyeconomy

ConsCons Gigantic up front Gigantic up front

costscosts Engineering Engineering

challengechallenge Requires world Requires world

cooperationcooperation

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Evaluation Rubric For All forms of RenewablesRenewables

1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM22))

2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)

3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)

4. MW output versus production time scale 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW)to bring on line (months/MW)

5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)

6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)KWH)

To Evaluate Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing

system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index)

Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values

Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created)

Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

Indexing - SolarIndexing - Solar

1. ~20 (averaged over 24 hour day) 1. ~20 (averaged over 24 hour day) = 1= 1

2. ~3 tons per kw = 12. ~3 tons per kw = 1 3. ~3 jobs per MW3. ~3 jobs per MW 4. ~10 MW per month4. ~10 MW per month 5. ~3$ per watt real facility cost5. ~3$ per watt real facility cost 6. 10 cents per KWH6. 10 cents per KWH

IndexIndex SolarSolar WindWind WaveWavess

BiomassBiomass

11 11 1010 22 .2.2

22 11 33 .5.5 11

33 11 11 11 55

44 11 33 .5.5 .5.5

55 11 22 .75.75 .5.5

66 11 33 .5.5 11

Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6)

Relative RankingRelative Ranking

Solar = 7Solar = 7 Waves =7.5Waves =7.5 Biomass =11 (because of jobs Biomass =11 (because of jobs

created)created) Wind = 24 (because of excellent Wind = 24 (because of excellent

material ratio and low Levelized material ratio and low Levelized costs)costs)

Thinking Big -SolarThinking Big -Solar

Sonoran Desert Project:Sonoran Desert Project:

300,000 square km @ 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

Thinking Big - WindThinking Big - Wind

Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing 1200 5 MW turbines: 180,000 MW

Thinking Real Big - WindThinking Real Big - Wind

Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

Be Optimistic• Change can occur – this class is part of this

process• Individual attitudes matter and multiply (Ideas

are Bulletproof)• European Union is providing a good example

of government driven initiatives for a new energy economy

• Technology is rapidly improving• Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember Fred!