grand hyatt erawan bangkok 13 mar 2015 - listed...

CLSA Asean Forum 2015 Grand Hyatt Erawan Bangkok

13 Mar 2015

Contents

Overview

Performance

2015 Outlook

Overview Performance 2015 Outlook

1

Indigenous (20%)

Imported Refined Petroleum Products 93 KBD

877 KBD (**)

Source: PTIT

Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries = 869 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 102 KBD

(**) Not included Inventory

KBD = Thousand Barrels per day

Import (80%)

Crude/ Condensate 805 KBD

Refined Products 971 KBD*

Domestic

Crude/ Condensate 221 KBD

Supply Production Sales

Export

207 KBD

Oil Balance Thailand: Jan-Dec 2014

228 KBD

Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply

Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,082 KBD

PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD

(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)

Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)

Refined Products 200 KBD

2

Crude Export 7 KBD

898 KBD

Overview Performance Industry Outlook

Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2014

Gulf of Thailand (75%)

Power (59%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (7%)

Petrochemical Feedstock

(14%)

Industry Household

Transportation (6%)

Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL

LPG/NGL

Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3

3,529 MMSCFD

Main driver of the Thai economy

Supply Production Sales

3

LNG18%

Myanmar82%

Chevron 29%

PTTEP 29%

Others 42%

Bypass Gas 1000

MMSCFD

960 MMSCFD (20%)

Methane 1,569 MMSCFD

Onshore (3%)

128 MMSCFD

6 GSPs Total Capacity

2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat

Import (22%)

1,034 MMSCFD

Overview Performance Q2/2014 Outlook

81%

71% 19%

29%

2001 2014

Revenue

Net Income

Affiliate

PTT

702

1,716

IPO

1 As of 30 December 2014 : THB/US$ exchange rate of 32.50 2 As of December 2014

Largest company on Thai Stock exchange

Market cap ~US$56bn1 or ~ THB1.8 trillion1

Group companies:13.2%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market

capitalization

Majority owned by Thai government (66%)

51% by Ministry of Finance

15% by Vayupak Fund

Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G

value chain

International exploration and production business with 777

mmboe of proved reserves in 2014

Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and

GSPs in Thailand

Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6

refineries in the country

Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with

stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants

Leading oil marketing business with 1,396 retail stations

and 40% 2 of market share by volume

International oil trading business having traded 74.2 bn

liters 2 in 2014

Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and

Brunei

New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in

neighboring ASEAN countries

PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company

PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)

12,553

87,223

International and local recognition

Thailand best borrower award

2014 Best CEO

Best CFO

Best Managed Company

Best Corporate Governance

Best Investor Relations

Best Corporate Social

Responsibility

Best Commitment to Strong

Dividend Policy

SET Awards

Top Corporate

Governance Report

Award 2010 & 2011

Best Corporate Social

Responsibility Awards

2011 & 2012

84st Fortune Global

500 in 2014 81st in 2013

95th in 2012

128th in 2011

Platts Top 250 Global

Energy Company

18th Overall Performance

of 2013

180th in 2014 144th in 2013

167th in 2012

171th in 2011

Dow Jones Sustainability

Index (DJSI)

DJSI Member 2013-2014

(Listed in 2011)

4


Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level

Thai Ministry of Finance

51%

Vayupak Fund1 15%

Public 34%

Kingdom of Thailand – FC

Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-

PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-

PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A

Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange

Note: As of September 2014

• Foreign 17%

• Thai 17%

PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC BCP Total Others

Market cap (BNUSD)2 28.5 13.7 7.1 2.6 1.9 1.3 56.0 370.3

% of SET 6.7% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 13.2% 86.8%

Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Ba1 N.A. - -

S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ N.A. - -

PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand

5

1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to

any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares

are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on data as of 30 December 2014/ THB/US$ exchange rate of 32.50


5

http://www.jcr.co.jp/english/

Our Major Businesses & Activities

E&P

Gas

PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production

Upst

ream

Oil Marketing

Int’l Trading

Dow

nst

ream

Petrochemical

& Refining

PTTGC 48.89% Petrochemical Flagship

TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery

BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations

New

Busi

ness

Coal PTTER 100% Coal Business

GPSC 30.10% Power Flagship

• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing

• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and

petrochemical products

Inte

rmedia

te

PTT PLC

• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline

• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas

• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock

6

Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)

Power


6

PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration

“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”

7

Strong

TOP Quartile ROIC

Listed in DJSI since 2011

Long

Ranked Fortune 84th

Big

Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company


6,937 17,796

11,366

4,996

25,311

23,414

29,666

2,364 1,178

28,454

39,347

37,139 11,450

17,009

9,567

8,125

-5,747

2013 2014

PTTEP

PTT

Others

Refinery

Petrochem

93,091

44%

69%

38% 50% 171%

2014 Performance: PTT Group: Non recurring & stock loss pressured performance

8

MMTHB

*including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties

Oil Margin and Vol increased 3%

Performance decreased mainly from higher stock losses Trading Vol. decreased 2%

Margin increased 32% from condensate business

Lower performance of other affiliates

mainly from PTTGE’s asset impairment

Margin

FX gain

OPEX*

Share of income

Interest expense &

income taxes

Other Income

40%

55,795

Non-recurring

items

Avg. A/C GIM decreased 59% Aggregate intake decreased 7%

Refinery’s margin decreased 81%

Aromatics: PX spread drop 28%

Olefins spread improved, 20%

Sales vol. increased 10%

Performance decreased mainly from recognition

of impairment loss of assets, higher DD&A and

operating expense

Gas GSP margin increased 38%

GSM margin increased mainly from shortfall agreement

2014 Year in Review Performance 2015 Outlook

Petrochem

PTTEP

Refinery

Others

Contents

9

Overview

Performance

2015 Outlook


Financial Management

and Key Issue Updated

E&P key accomplishments in 2014

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others

10

Production

Operations

10

Maintain domestic production to support energy demand

Successfully commenced gas production from Zawtika

Ramp-up production from Montara to full potential

Strong production base from high-margin assets : 10% Growth

Continued appraisal program in Zawtika, Myanmar M3 and Algeria HBR

Kick-off Myanmar PSC-G & EP-2 exploration program

Additional exploration discovery in Mozambique Area 1

Gaining clarity on resource potential through continued exploration

Strengthen domestic base through Hess Thailand acquisition

Restructured oil sands business through KKD asset swap

Expanding exploration horizon into Brazil high-potential areas

Active portfolio management for short-term and long-term growth Portfolio management

Recorded >4 bn USD operating cash flow from higher sales volume

Strategic funding of 1.6 bn USD to strengthen capital structure

Balance dividend payment and cash flow with 4.50 THB/share dividend

Financially well-positioned against the oil price headwind Financial management


http://www.google.co.th/url?url=http://www.dreamstime.com/stock-photography-3d-golden-framed-dollar-sign-image3948522&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=di_XU-GbE4qn8AWs64LwCw&ved=0CDcQ9QEwEQ&usg=AFQjCNFvlJyCCiUt3l-hMNV4N4ubENWYaw

http://www.google.co.th/url?url=http://inhabitat.com/obama-set-to-announce-offshore-oil-drilling-plan/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=S3XfU7_BMs6D8gW_l4GoCA&ved=0CBkQ9QEwAg&usg=AFQjCNEFb-g1DCa5qECTTy4__zer_NdJaA

477

-739

1,847

677

2013 Q3/14

E&P Performance: Lower net income in 2014 mainly from impairment loss of assets

Product Prices

Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume

Key Highlights

8.13 8.06 7.92* 8.03*

100.19

74.88

100.15 94.91

65.15 56.54

65.58** 63.38**

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Liquid ($/BBL)

Gas ($/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg. ($/BOE)

MMUSD

221 239 192 217

104 108

101 105

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

347

Liquid

Gas

KBOED

325

11

293

25%

* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 8.07$ for 2014/ 8.01$ for 2013/ 7.98$ for Q4 13


** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 63.59$ for 2014/ 66.09$ for 2013/ 66.46$ for Q4 13

63% YoY

10% YoY

13%

1%

5%

3% 322

7% QoQ

255% QoQ

Q4/14 2014

QoQ

• Sales volume increased from Montara and Zawtika project • Avg. price decreased in line with world oil price. • Net income loss from lower price and recognition of impairment

losses of assets in PTTEP Australasia project and Mariana Oil Sand project

YoY

• Sales vol. increased mainly from full year sale of Montara, higher production of Contract 4 and first gas export from Zawtika.

• Net income decreased mainly from non-recurring items due to impairment of assets, increase in write-off dry hole and DD&A

1%


Financial Management

and Key Issue Updated

E&P Priorities in 2015

Adaptive to industry fundamental change


12

To be update Short term

Medium term

Long term

Implication Priorities in changing industry environment

Deliver 6% volume growth as planned

Focus on cost optimization and investment prioritization

Leverage strong balance sheet for value-creating growth

opportunity

Take a measured approach on our pre-development assets

e.g. Mariana Oil Sands, Algeria HBR, Cash Maple

Continue to focus on our core basins in the southeast Asia

Reassess long term aspiration


Business Segment

Q3/14 Q4/14 QoQ Y2013 Y2014 YoY

15,840 9,680 (39%) 44,836 54,102 21%

• S&M 7,092 3,290 (54%) 18,436 20,456 11%

• TM 6,681 5,874 (12%) 24,984 26,071 4%

• GSP 5,190 3,637 (30%) 13,663 20,030 47%

• NGV (5,082) (4,865) 4% (18,981) (19,962) (5%)

• Others 1,959 1,744 (11%) 6,734 7,507 11%

13

PTT EBITDA Performance:

( Unit:MMTHB)

3,126 (236) >(100%) 13,297 11,578 (13%)

1,010 (331) >(100%) 5,418 5,069 (6%)

*MIS ** Included Gas/Oil/Trading affiliates 13

Gas-EBITDA

Oil-EBITDA

Trading*-EBITDA

Total** 19,976 9,113 (54%) 63,551 70,749 11%


Auto 21.38

Cooking 18.13

Industry 30.13

LPG NGV

Public Car 8.50 THB/Kg

Private Car 10.50 THB/Kg

New Gov.

New Gov.

Energy Price Reform: Blessing in Disguise

14

Adjusted 3 times Total change +2.50 for Private Car +1.50 for Public Car

10.00

13 .00

Adjusted 4 times Total change +1.53 for Cooking +2.78 for Auto -5.91 for Industry

Petroleum Products Total change -14.79 for ULG -13.33 for Gasohol95 -4.76 for Diesel

Gasohol95 39.63

Diesel 29.99

ULG 95 47.15

26.90

25.09

33.96

New Gov.

Dubai

107.11

58.59

New Gov.

USD/BBL THB/Litre

10.50

8.50

THB/Kg THB/Kg

22.63


15 10

Energy Price Reform: LPG Prices


CP-20 $/ton or 423 $/ton

Lifted GSP Capped Price from 333 USD/TON to reflect GSP Cost

GSP 3.6 Mil. Ton

(48%)

Imported 2.0 Mil.

Ton (27%)

Refinery 1.9 Mil.

Ton (25%)

488 $/TON

or 16.11 ฿/kg

CP+85 $/ton or 528 $/ton

498 $/ton

*CP Jan’15= 443 $/ton

Tax 2.39 ฿/kg

Margin 3.26 ฿/kg

Oil Fund 0.82 ฿/kg

VAT 1.58 ฿/kg

Oil Fund AS

CLEARING HOUSE

Margin 3.26 ฿/kg

VAT 1.19 ฿/kg

Tax 2.39 ฿/kg

No oil

Fund

24.16 ฿/kg

18.13 ฿/kg

Cooking

Transport

Industrial

Low income

Need subsidy

4.81 ฿/kg

15 LPG prices for Petchem : not controlled, but linked to market price and/or contract price


http://www.google.co.th/url?url=http://gas-lpg-rodyontt.blogspot.com/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=58tcVPDKG8S8uATasYDQCg&ved=0CBcQ9QEwATgU&usg=AFQjCNGqWS3Kbm5yvRnOK4iTmVWnNiXGlg

4,291

4,515

4,616 4,754

4,704

4,685

4,497 4,469

4,450

4,768 4,731

4,802

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q41,165 1,070 1,228 1,206

932 1,034 873 852

681 695 611 699

945 1,034 930 959

689 653 640 655 319 316 307 317

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Gas Performance:

NG volume maintain growth under political uncertainty in Y2014

NG Sales Volume* NG Customer Breakdown

2013

2012

2014

MMSCFD

EGAT (26%)

IPP (18%)

SPP (15%)

GSP (20%)

Industry (14%) NGV (7%)

MMSCFD

4,802 4,731 AVG.

4,688

4,544

4,589

4,589


2% YoY

8.87 8.79

8.54

8.82

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

1% QoQ

NGV Sales Volume

Unit : Approx. KTon/Day

Vol. MMCFD

319 316 307 317

3% YoY QoQ

• NG volume increased mainly from higher IPP and GSP demand.

• Lower NGV sales volume from price adjustment.

YoY

• NG volume increased mainly due to higher demand from SPP, GSP and industrial customers.

• NGV sales volume slightly increased by 3%

QoQ

• Higher NGV Sales volume due to NGV Station back to normal operation after closed during political demonstratiionon

YOY

• Sales volume increased by 5%, also, feed cost increased

• No Government subsidy, while special discount given to public transportation customers

Key Highlights

SM: GSM, NGR, CHP margin +1.75% no cap for internal use, external cap according to price structure

4,688

2% QoQ

Convention เพิม่ 2 สถานี Mother Daughter ท่ีเพิม่ขึน้เป็นของเอกชน

* NG Sales Volume include Inter-BA Transaction

Gas BU Performance:

Better performance from GSP#5 back to normal operation

K.Ton/Day

16


7,092 3,290

18,436 20,456 6,681 5,874

24,984 26,071

5,190 3,637

13,663 20,030

(5,082) (4,865)

(18,981) (19,962)

1,959 1,744

6,734

7,507

Gas - EBITDA

MMTHB Others

TM

GSP

15,840

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013* 2014

44,836

39% QoQ

S&M

NGV

720 714

2,690 2,739 184 179

705 728

532 597

2,075 2,106

162 244

727 819

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

6,197

GSP Sales Volume

LPG (43%)

kTon

1,598 1,734

6,392

9% QoQ

3% YoY

Gas Performance :

Higher NG sales and stronger GSP Margin drove performance

17


QoQ

• Lower NGV loss from sale volume decrease

• GSPs performance declined from margin squeeze

• Gas BU’s EBITDA decreased from lower GSPs margin and conversion factor changed impacted COGS of GSM

YoY

• Better performance from Myanmar Gas shortfall and higher NG sales volume for SPP customer, better GSP’s margin, higher GSP sale volume

• More loss on NGV from increased volume

Propane (13%)

NGL (11%)

Ethane (33%)

Key Highlights

9,680

21% YoY

*Restated

391 382 403 389

832

577

842 786

1,604 1,448 1,487 1,544

1,620 1,459

1,516 1,572

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

333

GSP - Reference Product Prices

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

USD/Ton

Feed Cost*

LPG Capped 333 333 333

* Revised Feed cost due to re-calculated with GSP production volume instead of sale volume

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014 20142

S&M 7,092 3,290 18,436 20,456 20,456

TM 6,681 5,874 24,984 26,071 26,071

GSP 5,190 3,637 13,663 20,030 20,030

NGV (5,082) (4,865) (18,981) (19,962) (19,962)

Others 1,959 1,744 6,734 7,507 7,507

Total 15,840 9,680 44,836 54,102 54,102

15,840 9,680 44,836 54,102 54,102

12% -39% - 21%

54,102


Gas BU:

Gas Consumption keep growing in line with GDP Growth

• Long term gas demand, close to GDP as our major customer is power sector

• Power sector: 60% using gas, in term of vol still growing but for % might be lower

• GSP5 will S/D only 15 days for installation of WHRU in Sep’14

Awarded IHI Corporation and Posco Engineering, Consortium (IHI-PEN) as an EPC contractor

Completed 24.7% of construction phase i.e. piling for LNG tank #3 & #4 complete , working pile load test for jetty

Expected completion early 2017

LNG Terminal phase II progress


Awarded McConnell Dowell Constructors Thai Ltd. as a new 4th onshore pipeline construction contractor and Christiani & Nielson(Thai) Co.,Ltd. as a new Block Valve construction contractor

Progress as of Dec14 (only from new contractor)

: Pipeline 35.16% : Block Valve 35.24%

Expected completion by 3rd quarter 2015

4th Onshore pipeline progress

18


684 712 2,359 2,751 2,442

(948)

10,938 8,827

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

3,126

(236)

11,578

13,297

0.77

0.51

0.80 0.82

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Oil Performance :

Stock loss hurts performance

Contribution Margin 1/

Oil - EBITDA Key Highlights

MMTHB

THB/Liter

1/ Excluded non–oil business

19

QoQ

• Margin squeezed from stock loss and a drop in oil prices • Volume increased mainly from higher demand following lower oil

prices • EBITDA turned negative mainly due to stock loss and and

inventory losses from NRV YoY • Better margin mainly from high gasoline and aviation margin • Better sales volume mainly from gasoline and aviation • Better non-oil business performance following branch expansion • EBITDA decreased mainly from higher stock losses and inventory

losses from NRV

Oil

Non-Oil*


* EBITDA from Operating

3% YoY

13% YoY

5,943 6,209

23,981 24,657

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Sales Volume 2/

MM Liter

2/ Only PTT and PTTRM

3% YoY

33% QoQ 4% QoQ

108% QoQ


Meeting Godji Family at PTT Life Station

Promoting substitute energy via distribution hub of Gasohol E85

รับรางวัลระดับสากลจาก “แพลท” สะท้อนความแขง็แกร่งด้านความโปร่งใสและยั่งยืน


Oil BU : Going Forward Moving toward sustainable growth

Rank 24th in Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Ranking 2014

20

20


1,010

(331)

5,418 5,069

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

0.07 0.06 0.08

0.11

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

20,429 19,527

75,545 74,200

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Trading Performance :

Domestic condensate drives performance

Contribution Margin*

Trading - EBITDA*

Sales Volume

Key Highlights

MMTHB

THB/Liter MM Liter

* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard 21

QoQ

• Lower margins from higher condensate discount following lower crude oil prices

• Sales volume decreased mainly from conservative crude trading during oil prices decline

• EBITDA turns negative mainly from doubtful debt YoY • Margins surged from lower condensate discount rate • Lower sales volume mainly due to a drop in crude import • EBITDA decreased mainly from doubtful debt despite better

margins ** Not restated

6% YoY

• Import parity • Basket price or

reference price

133% QoQ

32% YoY 14% QoQ

2% YoY

4% QoQ

* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard



Refineries : Key Events 2014

22

Jun: CDU-3 Major Turnaround : 15 Jun- End July ~46 Days

Aug: COD of key margin improvement products i.e. HVU-2 revamp, CDU-3 Preheat Train

Mar: T/A 18 Mar - 9 Apr

Jun: Fire incident in Vacuum Gas Oil Hydro Treating Unit (VGOHT):

VGOHT Unit: Reconstruction on schedule, expect start up Apr. 2015

Insurance claim: 1,710 MB in 2014

Sep: Dispute settlement between IRPC and Liaopairattana family

Dec: JV with PCC Rokita SA, Poland

Apr: COD Solar: Phase 3 (48 MW PPA)

May: T/A 1May- 15 Jun (46 Days) scheduled Shutdown of Crude Distillation Unit (CDU)

Jul: BCP acquired 81.41% shares of Nido Petroleum Limited following tender offers

Aug: Purchase ordinary shares of 85% of “BCP Bioethanol”

Dec: Purchase of shares in Galoc Production Company WLL by Nido

Feb : Major Turnaround 8 Feb- 18 Mar (38 Days)

Apr : 3 projects (FCCR revamp ,PGP recovery ,APH) to improve operations were completed

Dec : The Cabinet approved COA Amendment



http://www.thaioilgroup.com/

(2,175)

(6,479)

9,316

(4,026)

(213)

(6,100)

3,977

(6,367)

381

(2,489)

4,652

712 22

(5,779)

826

(5,235)

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

64%

89% 89%

82%

327

207

289 268

371

252

486

279

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

101.5 74.4 105.5 96.6

4.29 6.88

3.77 4.75

0.83

(4.23)

4.75

1.17 1.99

(2.40)

7.76

3.10

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

QoQ • Mkt GRM increased mainly from falling crude oil price (Q3/14:

101.5$/bbl, Q2/14: 106.1$/bbl)

• Q3/14 has large stock loss while Q2/14 had stock gain then A/C GRM decline pretty sharply (Ending Dubai Q2’14>Q3’14 : 108>96$/BBL

whereas Q1’14<Q2’14 : 104<108$/BBL), (stock loss 4R exclude PTTGC (Q3/14= -4.18 $/bbl., Q2/14= +1.06$/bbl)

• Recovered PX spread (PX-ULG95: Q3/14= 371$/ton, Q2/14=220$/ton) from several PX producers cut runs and some plants’ maintenance (also

postponed PX plant start up in SG capacity 800,000 tons/yr. from Aug. to Sept.)

• BZ spread also improved from capacity declined (producers in Japan cut

runs, and postponed operation in SG) in contrast to its improving demand (from imported demand in US, resumed phenol operations in Japan using BZ as feedstock)

YoY • A/C GRM decreased mainly from lower Mkt GRM & more stock loss • A/C GIM also drop from PX spread tumbled on softened polyester

demand & additional PX supply • Lower utilization rate from major refineries’ T/A

Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

(0.16)

0.95

(0.90)

GRM/GIM

Refinery Utilization

USD/BBL

A/C GRM

A/C GIM Mkt GRM

Dubai


Net Income (100%)

U-Rate (%) Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Aggregated U-Rate

85 97 94 87

TOP 85 108 102 98

IRPC 77 84 84 80

SPRC 103 103 104 91

BCP 81 85 83 72

Aggregated Intake (KBD) 685 761 671

7% YoY 13% QoQ

-4.08 -11.23 0.55 -4.12 Stock Gain/Loss

735

1,120 SPRC: -213

3,783

-54

2,094

TOP: -2,175

9,307

2,453

178

IRPC:22

42

544

1,258

BCP: 380

3,963

3,200

Q2/14 Q3/14 9M/13 9M/14

MMTHB

BCP

IRPC

SPRC

TOP

4,650

-1,986

7,916

54% YoY 143% QoQ

17,094

(31 days ) T/A

Aromatics

Aromatics Production

BZ-ULG95 PX-ULG95

BZ: 7% YoY

PX: 43% BZ: 37%

QoQ

PX: 32%

QoQ

A/C GIM: 221%

YoY

A/C GIM: 60%

+ Insurance Compensation : 521 MB in Q2/14 + Recognized revenue (of 743 Baht million) from fully-operated all 3

phases of Solar Power Plant - Lower A/C GRM (9M/14= 5.34$/bbl, 9M/13 =7.45$/bbl) - Lower U-Rate (T/A 46 days in Q2/14)

TOP 6,854

SPRC 4,050

BCP 763

IRPC 502

- Lower A/C GIM (9M14= 4.70$/bbl, 9M13=8.27$/bbl) from weaken crack spreads and PX spread

- Stock loss due to drop in Dubai price (9M14 stock loss 3,985 MMTHB while 9M13 stock gain 1,378 MMTHB)

- Lower integrated intake from planned major T/A of refinery and aromatics plant (Mid June- End July ~ 46 days)

- Pressured Aromatics : PX margin tumbled

+ Non-recurring items: insurance claim (710 MB), reverse impairment (470 MB), sales of investment (150 MB), etc.

- Lower A/C GIM (drop by 1.3$/bbl) from; the stock loss (decrease 1.44$/bbl), and Mkt GIM decrease (by 0.77$/bbl) while increase in oil hedging gain (increase 0.92$/bbl)

- T/A 23 days (18 Mar – 9 Apr)/ Fire incident on 9 June

- Lower A/C GRM (9M14= 2.72$/bbl, 9M13=5.34$/bbl) - Plant Turnaround: 8 Feb – 7 Apr (total S/D)

9M14 Vs. 9M13

Split stack to bar graph like GRM/GIM

4,650

(20,847)

18,771 950% QoQ 180% YoY

Refining Business Performance:

More stock losses and pressured Aromatics

23

(1,985) (14,916) 23


Feb: PTTGC had planned shutdown of Olefins Plant I-1 and unplanned shutdown of Plant I4-1.

Aug: Purchased 34% of the registered capital in Vencorex from Perstorp, making % holding in Vencorex changed from 51% to 85%.

Sep: ARO 2 (capacity 1.07 ton/year) had unplanned S/D.

Petrochemical : Key Events 2014

24

• Better PP spread than planned

• Smooth Operation & no unplanned S/D


• Smooth Operation & no unplanned S/D


691 802

566 682 698

819

585 687

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

83% 63% 90% 81%

3.83 4.91 3.52 4.41

1.61

(7.69)

5.14

0.98

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

430

320 380 375

479

400

557

400

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Net Income (100%)

Aromatics

Unit : MMTHB

7,590

-4,935

33,140

15,036

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

PTTGC

HMC

Others

8,657

40% YoY

618 691

558 643

Q2/14 Q3/14 9M/13 9M/14

Olefins U-Rate

94% 101%

90% 91%

Olefins

HDPE-Naphtha

USD/Ton

BTX U-Rate

102% 101% 91% 102%

Refineries

CDU U-Rate

Stock G/L

A/C GRM Mkt GRM

BZ-Cond

PX-Cond

BZ-Cond: 1%

YoY

PX:-Cond 28%

(0.91)

1.11

(0.69)

-2.92 -14.68 0.84 -4.36 Stock Gain/Loss

QoQ 578%:A/C GRM BZ-Cond: 26%

QoQ

PX-Cond: 16%

142% QoQ

Petrochemical Business Performance: Stock loss and plummeted Aromatics offset by solid Olefins

34,625

20,624

YoY 81%:A/C GRM

QoQ

- Refinery business dip as A/C GRM decreased

(Q3/14 =1.64$/bbl, Q2/14= 5.83$/bbl) from stock loss (Q3/14 =

-2.76$/bbl, Q2/14= +0.73$/bbl) with maintained U-rate

+ Olefins business better from higher U-rate in Q3 (with full GSP#5 resumption), and improved Olefins spread

+ Aromatics business recovered from both PX and BZ spreads (PX spread rose by 43% from 334 $/Ton in

Q2’14 to 479 $/Ton in Q3’14 as well as BZ enhanced by 16% from 370 $/Ton to 431 $/Ton)

+There was one-off transaction from Vencorex (French entity) in Q2’14 amounted 1,180 MB (consisted of asset impairment 750 MB and provision cost of employee & others 430 MB according to implementing new strategy)

YoY

+Olefins improved: most spreads largely improved (HDPE-Naphtha: 9M14= 642$/ton,

9M13= 558$/ton)

- Refinery declined: A/C GRM decreased (9M14

=3.84$/bbl, 9M13= 5.06$/bbl) from stock loss (9M14= -0.93$/bbl, 9M13= 0.73$/bbl)

- Aromatics downturn: PX spreads tumbling (drop by 30% from 573 $/Ton in 9M13 to 400 $/Ton in 9M14)

- Vencorex restructuring cost and impairment in

Q2/14 amounted 1,180 MB

HDPE-Naphtha

PP-Naphtha

HDPE-Naphtha: 16%

QoQ

PP-Naphtha: 17% HDPE-Naphtha: 20%

YoY

PP-Naphtha: 17%

25

(3,652)

25



62 59

73

64

40 37

47 42

68 64

85

71

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (94.58%) Cost reduction initiatives relieved effect from continuing coal price declined

EBITDA & Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume

Key Highlights

MMUSD

USD/Ton

1,501 1,645

8,196 6,773

802 598

2,991 3,072

2,303 2,243

11,187 9,845

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

kTon

Jembayan

Sebuku

Avg. Selling Price (ASP)

Cash Costs


3% QoQ

Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost

New Castle

SAR negative profit in Q2 is mainly due to extra expenditure US$ 3.6mn on tax settlement (corporate income tax) of BCS 2012 with Indonesia Tax Office (ITO). BCS is one of SAR subsidiaries in Indonesia, who handle coal sales to Tiger Energy Trading in Singapore.

5%

12% YoY

36.7 32.4

187.9

145.7 EBITDA 12% QoQ

NI 1,200% QoQ

NI 0.1

-1.1

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

EBITDA 22% YoY NI 26% YoY

9.4 7.0 EBITDA

6%

8%

12%

16%

11%

QoQ

• Cash cost improved from new contract negotiation with mining contractor and logistic contractor.

• Sales volume slightly lower since lower coal sales at Sebuku to relieve impact during coal price down turn.

YoY

• ASP dropped significantly but less than NEWC because of marketing initiatives to lock up price in spot contract before price going down further.

• Net income decreased due to extra expenditure on tax settlement, Indo restructuring and write-off Project Cambodia.


26

http://www.straitsasia.com/


521 424

1,553

1,789

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

Net Income* (100%) Sales Volume

Key Highlights

MMBaht GWh 15% YoY

Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (30.10%)

Better performance supported by higher steam sales

2,102

1,966

7,850 7,573

1,245 1,279

4,496

4,981

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

kTon


Capacity*

*Power only (excludingSteam) According to Business Plan 2014-18 (@ 4 Mar 2014 (To be revised) ** By year-end 2014

4%

3%

11% 19% QoQ

*Adj.TFRIC 4

QoQ

• Lower power sales volume from Sriracha plant S/D and lower demand from EGAT.

• Higher steam sales volume due to major customers back to normal operation

• Performance dropped from lower EGAT selling price and power sales volume from Sriracha plant.

YoY

• Power sales volume dropped mainly from Sriracha plant because of lower demand from EGAT.

• Steam sales volume increased mainly during Q2/14 due to higher sales to major customers.

• Better performance from higher steam sales.

ราคาขายไฟฟ้าให ้EGAT จะแพงสดุในชว่ง Q2 –Q3จะนอ้ยลง

Power Steam

6%

MW

1,200 1,448

321

345 32

32 1,553

1,825

2013 2014

Renewable

Conventional

*Power only (excluding Steam)

Hydro


27



Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%) Project update


GPSC Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Preparation

• Completed its conversion into a public

company limited as “Global Power

Synergy Public Company Limited” (the

“Company”) on 27 November 2014

• On Nov 28,2014 Submitted the

registration statement (Form 69-1) and

the prospectus (Form 72-1) to SET

Navanakorn (NNEG) Expected to COD - Q3/2016

IRPC-CP Construction Progress as of Dec is 91.63% (Phase I), Expected to COD – Q1/2015 (Phase I)

Nam Lik 1 Construction Progress as of Dec is ~ 14.7%, Expected to COD - Q3/2017

Xayaburi Construction Progress as of Sep is ~ 40.9%, Expected to COD - October 2019

Progress Update (Q4/14)

Addition 1,000MW during 5 Years

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5 Years Investment plan

1,825 MW

2,701 MW

Highlight Planned Activities 2015

Key Activities 2014

All 7 assets transferred from PTT to GPSC

28


28

101.5 74.4 105.5 96.6

24,558

-26,649

93,091 55,795

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

PTT Consolidated Performance: 2014

Dubai (USD/BBL)

2014 2013

40%

31%

18%

9% 2%

70%

22%

4% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

757,619 643,851

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

21%

71%

17%

-10% 1%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Net Income

Unit : MMTHB

EBITDA

Net Income

Revenue

70%

18%

8% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

Revenue

EBITDA

72%

17%

7% 4%

71%

20%

5% 4%

Revenue

EBITDA

Net Income

30%

46%

17%

-5% 4%

72%

17%

7% 4%

69%

24%

4%

3%

Revenue

EBITDA

Net Income

Q3/14

209%

15%

0.3% 2,842,408 2,834,732

66,052 51,854

228,541 251,025

Q3/14 Q4/14 2013 2014

22%

10%

40%

29


29

10.5

13.6

0.4 0.3

1.4 1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2013 2014

Other Liabilities

PP&E

Others Non-

current Assets

Other Current Assets

L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

MMTHB

Cash & S/T Invest

31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14

1,805,041 1,818,746

Statement of Financial Position

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0

Net Debt/Equity≤ 1.0

ICR*

*ICR = (Net cash flow from operating activities +Taxes paid from operating activities) divided by Interest paid from financing activities

739,785 720,335

541,678 566,881

363,206 267,201

160,370 224,762

822,842 867,342

471,395 453,484

510,802 458,353

1 2 3 4 5

1.4%

1,805,039 1,779,179

31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14

Decreased assets :

• Dropped in A/R mainly from decreases in sales

volume and selling price of an International

Trading Business

• Decrease in petroleum exploration and production assets of PTTEP due to assets swap of Canada Oil Sands KKD project and the impairment losses on assets of PTT Australasia project


30

7.71 8.75

13.43

22.40

30.5734.14 34.82

18.3321.06

29.58

37.24 36.58

32.52

19.33

2.50 2.85 4.006.75

9.25 10.50 11.508.00 8.50

10.2513.00 13.00 13.00

11.00

25% 25%

32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0%

56.9%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Dividend Policy & Historical Payments

PTT’s minimum payout ratio

PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income

Baht / share

EPS

DPS

Dividend payout

6.00

5.00

Interim


31

Gas 50%

Oil & Trading 15%

R&D, Others

4%

M&A and

Investment Oversea 12%

LNG 17%

Infrastructure 2%

34,88519,398

33,876 40,008 36,571

9,629

5,767

9,21712,891

11,2835,472

3,970

1,882

9591,219

29,975

8,928

19,65417,057

18,147

5,519

22

1916 7

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Infrastructure

Investment in Joint Venture and Its subsidiaries

R&D and Others

Oil and International Trading

Natural Gas

Unit: MMTHB

PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 327bn* ($10bn) during 2015-2019

CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years

By Business Unit

JV &

Investment in

Subsidiaries

29%

32

38,085

70,931 67,407

85,480

64,648

4th pipeline & extension

LPG import facility

LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea

32


32

Contents

Overview

Performance

2015 Outlook


33

North America (1)

1 Exploration

Canada

Africa and Middle East (7)

1 Production

1 Development

5 Exploration

Algeria

Mozambique

Kenya

Oman

Thailand (17)

14 Production

1 Development

2 Exploration

Southeast Asia (15)

6 Production

9 Exploration Vietnam

Indonesia

Myanmar

Australasia (1)

1 Production

Australia

7 / 18

LNG

Deepwater Gas (LNG)

Economic Outlook : Challenges Ahead For Y2015

Thailand market: Govt. stimulus package will boost economy : Government investment will drives Thai economy growth

Clarity in government policy helps to lift private sector’s confidence : Delays in infrastructure spending will delays investment project

US Market : Economy Expands to boost consumer spending

: Fed plans to increase interest rates in Y2015

: US Economic Recovery Consumer spending expansion from declining global oil price

EU market: Aggressive ECB Stimulus : EU Economic impact of QE

: Risk of stagnation and prolonged deflation Russia Economy under pressure from western sanction and falling oil price

China market: Slowing down for sustainable growth : Low inflation allows easing monetary policies

: IMF revised Chinese GDP Forecast down to 6.8% in Y2015

Continuing to face slumping Chinese real-estate market

AEC market : Robust Economic Growth : IMF uplifted forecast ASEAN-5 GDP growth in 2015 around 5.2%

: Exchange rate volatility

PTT Performance: Brighten future : Unlocked PTT pendulums (LPG, NGV, Non-productive investment)

: Uncertainty on oil price

Greece out of EU ?? 1€ = 1$ ??


34

Growth in shale production

Lower-than-expected heating demand and higher natural gas production

Factors to watch

US LNG Export Terminal Projects

Source : Short term 2014 Outlook, July 2014 EIA, Street Research, Bloomberg and PTT

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast

Henry Hub / JKM Price Outlook: Gas Price trend to move lower from higher supply

LNG Global Demand/Supply

Higher spot LNG cargo in market due to high temperature than normal in Japan during winter season

Japan-Korea Market Price Forecast

Excess Supply expected in L-T

Expected JKM price 2015 = 7-9 $/MMBtu

EIA’s projected HH Price in 2015 is 3.05 $/MMBTU

Factors to watch

Korea Nuclear Reactor will be allowed to restart

Average JKM price 2014 = 14.89 $/MMBtu

Average HH price 2014 = 4.26$/MMBtu

Current price @ 6.80 $/MMBtu


35

45.01 44.52 44.17 45.50 47.03

51.19 55.04

57.79 60.38 63.04

64.26

30

50

70

90

110

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM) Column2

2014 Dubai $96.6/bbl

Dubai Forecast Y2015 Range $50-60/bbl

106.2 106.3

105.6 105.7 106.0

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM) Column2

2013 Dubai $105.5/bbl

2014 1H Dubai $105.3/bbl

Dubai Forecast 2H 2014 Range $105-$107/bbl

Geopolitical risk remain high

Reduction of the US oil rig count

“OPEC spare capacity trend to rises in 2015 However, rising geopolitics and falling oil rig count helped a price rebound”

Dubai $105/bbl

Dubai $105/bbl

Dubai $103/bbl

Source: (PTT Group) Estimated (02.02.2015)

Revised

Crude Oil Outlook: Overwhelming supply pressure oil price

Peak Global refinery maintenance in Q2’15

Slowdown of the Chinese economy

Crude Oil Price Forecast in Y2015 range bound 50-60 $/bbl

Psychology level @ 100 USD/BBL

Factors to watch

World Oil Demand/Supply Balance

Source: Barclays , IEA

Geopolitics

Shortage

surplus surplus

surplus

US

D/b

bl


36

“Asian Refineries will start going under maintenance and

will be peak mid-May.”

Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (July 2014)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

Upcoming US driving Season in Q2’2015

Spring refinery maintenance in Region and US

Forecast

GO

Mogas

FO Yanbu and Ruwais refineries ramp up in Q2’2015

Less Mogas demand after Indonesia and Malaysia cut subsidies

Singapore GRM Forecast in Y2015 to be around 6-7$/bbl Factors to watch

“Expected new barrels from AP/ME are expected to

continually flood the petroleum product market”

Refinery Margin Outlook : Refinery margin remains stable during harvest season

Refinery Maintenance in Asia-Pacific Area CDU Additional Vs Additional Demand –AP&ME

V Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Demand Growth Supply Growth

Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period (Effective additional capacity) Source: FACTs Semi Annual Reports, October 2014, reuters, Bloomberg, TOP estimate

US

D/b

bl


37

Ample supply amid generally high cracker run-rates in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and New Capacity 6.7M Ton come on stream

Fluctuation in upstream feedstock prices, buyers deferred any unnecessary purchases to keep inventories at low level

0

200

400

600

800

Ja

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Spread HDPE Spread PP

US

D/T

on

Olefins Product Spread

Petrochemical Outlook : Olefin spread stable from restocking after Chinese New Year

Source: HIS, ICIS and PRISM

Asia Ethylene Supply/Demand Balance

Factors to watch in 2015

• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 590-730 USD/TON

• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 610-660 USD/TON

Y 2015

Ethylene supply in Asia remains long relative to downstream derivatives demand in the region. The continued weakness in the global energy and feedstock market meant that buyers expected a weaker monomer price going forward and thus deferred any unnecessary purchases. With the slowdown in demand growth expected to drag well into the first quarter of 2015, most downstream derivative producers have taken actions to cut back on operating rates going forward. This will have a corresponding impact on the feedstock monomer market. The supply situation is expected to remain quite stable going into the next quarter as the next wave of cracker maintenances will start from the second quarter of 2015. In production news, South Korea’s LG Chemical started up its Yeosu cracker at the end of November following a shutdown for maintenance and expansion. Overall cracker operating rates for Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia in December are estimated at 93% and 81%, respectively, while those for January are forecast at 92% in Northeast Asia and 83% in Southeast Asia.

Supply of propylene in Asia remains long due to ample supply from regional producers. Demand from downstream derivative units remained weak going into the year-end and the beginning of 2015. With ample supply in the region, there was little hurry to commit to the spot market as market players expect the monomer prices to continue on a downtrend—dragged lower by the weak global energy and feedstock prices, as well as the significant length in the region. In China, Bohai Chemical’s PDH unit in Tianjin was expected to start up on 20 December after a shutdown that began in mid-October. Domestic supply remained relatively long in East China as PDH operators were selling propylene into the market. Shandong Shenda’s new MTO unit was reported to have started up in early December, but it shut down thereafter for some readjustment work. Fund Energy (Ningbo)’s MTO unit restarted production on 7 December after maintenance. In Taiwan, Formosa’s No.1 RFCC unit started up in early December after an unplanned outage lasting 2-3 weeks. However, this was followed by another outage at its No.2 RFCC unit in mid-December. Non-steam cracking operating rates for Asia in December and January are estimated at 91% and 92%, respectively.

Asia Propylene Supply/Demand Balance

Ava

ila

bil

ity

Anticipated increase demands in US, China and Indonesia


38

Petrochemical Outlook: Expect PX margin to recover from Lunar New Year Demand

Anticipated increase demands due to positive boost on America's economy, and new downstream plans start up in China Ample supply in Asia as a result from new plant start up

Buyers are wait-and-see for the prices to be stabilize

Aromatics Product Spread

Factors to watch in 2015

• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 160-290 USD/TON

• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 310-420 USD/TON

0

200

400

600

800

Ja

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Spread BZ Spread PX

US

D/T

on

Supply / Demand The polyester industry continues to reap benefits of falling prices. Overall demand has been significantly improved since November and this has had a positive impact on the demand upstream. PX demand has been at its strongest in the past couple of months. However, consumers have not lost sight of the upcoming Lunar New Year in late February and we estimate that the overall cargoes fixed for February shipment by now is lower to compensate for any drop in demand during and after the holidays. Consumers have been cautiously optimistic about a sharp recovery in demand which is reflective in the level of activity seen for March shipment cargoes. Just to remind everyone, a March shipment cargo translates into polyester recover in April, accounting for the normal time required in transit. In trade, China’s monthly imports dropped to 749 kt in October against a monthly average figure of 800 kt. Final import statistics are available till November and indicate that imports jumped to 944 kt and preliminary data for December indicates a further increase to 1,179 kt. Clearly the shutdown of CNOOC and lower operations in Lidong necessitated higher imports, but even then the volumes in these two months is significantly in excess of China’s requirement and based on our estimates has resulted in an inventory buildup in excess of 200 kt in these two months. Exports from South Korea have jumped in 2H 2014 as three new world scale plants came on-stream. Total exports from South Korea were about 2 million mt in 2012, 3 million mt in 2013 and 4 million mt in 2014. At the end of 2014, average exports from South Korea were about 500 kt per month, a level that is not sustainable unless production in other places drops to accommodate this extra volume. On the supply side, poor economics has forced a reduction in the transalkylation streams in many plants, and even condensate based economics is taking a major beating. Given that heavy naphtha is available today at a very small premium to full range naphtha and the naphtha to PX economics seems to be quite positive, the condensate based units are looking at ways to reduce the condensate splitter operations and procuring heavy naphtha instead. In Korea, Samsung Total is reportedly doing the exact thing today, while in Singapore, Jurong Aromatics has taken a shutdown in late December to attend to some quality issues in the OX section as well as to build flexibility to charge heavy naphtha to their unit. Only long term interregional contracted supplies are arriving in Asia as the falling prices have made it impossible to establish an arbitrage level enough to trade at. Forecast In our last report, we mentioned the risk of seeing crude prices at $45 per bbl levels and that fear has already come true. The Energy team at IHS believes that the global market continues to have excess supplies and that will keep the direction of crude prices lower over the next few months. Crude oil producers will have to lower production to enable prices to stabilize and move back up. This will have to happen due to economic reasons as against the proactive management by OPEC in the past. IHS is in the process of updating our oil sector forecasts, and while details are being worked out we are now looking at a broad low level of $40 per barrel for crude oil, somewhere in Q2 2015 and recovery from that level is expected to be gradual. Our PX price forecasts follow the same trend as our energy forecasts and while we expect spot prices to be stable to slightly higher in February time frame, based on the new crude oil forecast we estimate that PX price will drop below the $700 per mt level in Q2 2015. Despite the fall in prices, PX spreads over naphtha have remained strong at the $350 per mt level and we do not expect it to be drastically lower in 2015. An improvement in the condensate based economics and transalkylation economics will have a negative impact on the naphtha–PX spread, however the falling crude oil prices does not bode well for these processes. History has taught us that as crude oil prices fall; the availability of feedstock for the Aromatics unit becomes expensive and restricted, thereby giving the Aromatics unit a high return, at least on paper. On the demand front, we are increasing our expectations for 2015. The low prices will stimulate demand and if crude prices bounce back in 2015 as expected then there will be a buildup in the textile pipeline inventory which would further boost PX demand.

Benzene capacity loss in January increased by 27,000 mt from December to 211,000 mt, or 8% of total Asian capacity. Chinese capacity loss was large at 69,000 mt, or 33% of January capacity loss in Asia. Jinling PC and Lidong Chemical have suspended their TA plants. Liaoyang PC has continued to idle its old aromatics plants. Sichuan PC is having a scheduled entire complex turnaround, affecting its refinery, aromatics, and naphtha cracker. In Singapore, JAC has suspended its entire complex since mid-December to fix an operational problem and for feed diversification. Other outages are constantly suspended plants like HDA and TDP plants in South Korea and Japan. As a whole, the Asian benzene market has been amply supplied with relatively limited capacity loss due to turnarounds and increased benzene capacity in line with new large-scale PX capacity in South Korea, China, Singapore, and India. On top of this, naphtha crackers have been charging more naphtha in place of LPG seasonally in the turnaround off-season. On the other hand, benzene demand for SM has been picking up after the restart of FCFC’s two lines, Ellba in Singapore, and Chandra Asri’s large plant. In China, one new PH plant in Shanghai has started operation and two other PH plants will start soon. Even though benzene demand has been recovering, benzene production in Asia has been very high. February benzene capacity loss is predicted to fall to 157,000 mt, or 6% of total Asian capacity. The turnaround off-season will continue in February and there will be no scheduled turnarounds. In Singapore, JAC will complete an outage. Other capacity loss will result from constantly suspended plants. In China, Liaoyang PC will again suspend old aromatics plants. Lidong Chemical and Junling PC will suspend their TA plants again in February. In Japan, JX Nippon will idle a TDP plant in Chita, a TA plant in Sendai, and an HDA plant in Mizushima. In South Korea, all HDA plants will continue to be idled. In Taiwan, CPC will continue to suspend two TDP plants. In addition, no naphtha cracker turnarounds are planned and the charging of LPG to crackers will remain seasonally low. Pygas-based benzene production will be in full swing. Benzene supply will remain robust in February. In terms of demand, SM production will be recovering due to the improved margin. SM producers will be preparing for heavy spring turnarounds. Regarding PH, three new PH plants in China might operate and contribute to increased benzene demand. Overall, Asian benzene will be amply supplied in February. As a result, benzene export demand from the United States will remain crucial for Asian benzene players. The Chinese market will also be important for benzene players as an export destination. The February Asian benzene price is expected to decline to $584 per mt in line with a soft US price forecast. The US benzene market will be in steep contango toward gasoline season and economical benzene shipment from Asia to the United States might be plausible. In February, the Asian naphtha price is predicted to recover from January. As a result, the Asian benzene price spread over naphtha is expected to decline.

Av

ailab

ilit

y

Av

ailab

ilit

y

Source: HIS, ICIS and PRISM


39

Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com

Disclaimer

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking

statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and

uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ

materially from those projected.

Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information

In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual

Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in

this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its

proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation.

Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”,

and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable

certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government

regulations.

Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be

recoverable.

Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from

known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market

availability, political, environmental, or technological.

40

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com/



Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk

Debt Portfolio

Managed debt according to financial risk and policy

Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB

: Cost of debts ~ 4.57 % : % fixed-rate ~ 77.35 % : Avg. debt life ~ 8.25 years

: Cost of debts ~ 4.41 % : % fixed-rate ~ 74.99 % : Avg. debt life ~ 7.69 years

188,102 181,399 185,924 221,201 208,298 219,332

100,069 125,972 103,024

215,507 259,665 230,390 288,171

307,371 288,948

436,708 467,963

449,722

31 Dec 12 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14 31 Dec 12 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14

USD THB

(35%)

(65%)

(41%)

(59%)

(36%)

(64%)

(49%)

(51%)

(55%)

(45%)

(51%)

(48%)

Note : Data as of 31 Dec 14 (THB/USD = 33.1132 THB/JPY = 0.276511) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.

41

41

PTT Group Performance : 2014 (YoY)

% share

Unit : MMTHBY2013

(Restated)Y2014 YoY

Y2013

(Restated)Y2014 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 28,454 39,347 38% 28,454 39,347 38%

E&P - PTTEP 56,155 21,490 -62% 65.29% 37,139 11,450 -69%

- PTTGC 33,140 15,036 -55% 48.89% 16,825 7,007 -58%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/

PTTME/PTTMCC/PMMA1,485 5,588 276% 40-50% 184 2,560 1291%

Petrochemical 34,625 20,624 -40% 17,009 9,567 -44%

- TOP 9,316 -4,026 -143% 49.10% 4,209 -1,903 -145%

- IRPC 826 -5,235 -734% 38.51% 1,265 -1,980 -257%

- SPRC 3,977 -6,367 -260% 36.00% 1,393 -2,051 -247%

- BCP 4,652 712 -85% 27.22% 1,258 187 -85%

Refining 18,771 -14,916 -179% 8,125 -5,747 -171%

Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -2,701 -5,600 -107% 100% -2,770 -5,586 -102%

Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 3,615 4,893 35% 50-100% 2,475 3,596 45%

Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 1,376 2,982 117% 20-30% 628 866 38%

Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 2,361 2,217 -6% 33-100% 2,031 2,302 13%

Others Business 4,651 4,492 -3% 2,364 1,178 -50%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 114,202 31,690 -72% 64,637 16,448 -75%

PTT Conso. Net Income 142,656 71,037 -50% 93,091 55,795 -40%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

42

42

PTT Group Performance : Q4/14 (QoQ)

% share

Unit : MMTHB Q3/14 Q4/14 QoQ Q3/14 Q4/14 QoQ

PTT Net operating Income 12,209 2,237 -82% 12,209 2,237 -82%

E&P - PTTEP 15,284 -24,415 -260% 65.29% 7,846 -16,117 -305%

- PTTGC 7,590 -4,935 -165% 48.89% 3,907 -2,266 -158%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/

PTTME/PTTMCC/PMMA1,067 1,283 20% 40-50% 494 536 9%

Petrochemical 8,657 -3,652 -142% 4,401 -1,730 -139%

- TOP -2,175 -6,479 -198% 49.10% -1,078 -3,206 -197%

- IRPC 22 -5,779 -26368% 38.51% 43 -2,210 -5240%

- SPRC -213 -6,100 -2764% 36.00% -1 -2,012 -201100%

- BCP 381 -2,489 -753% 27.22% 90 -685 -861%

Refining -1,985 -20,847 -950% -946 -8,113 -758%

Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -894 -3,315 -271% 100% -962 -3,323 -245%

Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 1,393 786 -44% 50-100% 1,014 605 -40%

Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 1,040 396 -62% 20-30% 307 116 -62%

Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 789 -214 -127% 33-100% 689 -324 -147%

Others Business 2,328 -2,347 -201% 1,048 -2,926 -379%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 24,284 -51,261 -311% 12,349 -28,886 -334%

PTT Conso. Net Income 36,493 -49,024 -234% 24,558 -26,649 -209%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

43

43

Free Cash flow

70,243 91,306

Investing

2013 -95,264

2014 -144,061

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -114,457 -128,452

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -11,255 -26,854

Dividend/Interest Received 18,488 13,882

Others 11,960 -2,637

Operating

2013 165,507

2014 235,367

Net Income 93,091 55,795

Changes in assets & liabilities -25,218 11,545

Income Tax -45,822 -49,826

Non-Cash Adjustment 127,702 199,093

Interest-net 15,754 18,760

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

157,683 203,785

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

136,924 157,683

Cash In/(Out)

20,759 46,102

Adjustment

6,586 2,111

Financing -56,070 -47,315

Repayment Loans -77,005 -49,559

Interest paid -20,089 -20,980

Dividend paid -46,368 -48,837

Received from share issue 280 32,335

Received from loans/Bonds 87,112 39,726

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows

44

44

45

Free Cash flow

60,071 64,074

Financing -43,712 -69,983

Repayment Loans -56,252 -27,963

Interest paid -13,472 -12,801

Dividend paid -37,116 -39,985

Received from share issue - -

Received from loans/Bonds 63,128 10,766

Investing

2013 17,080

2014 -19,430

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -22,912 -31,639

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -4,281 -3,905

Dividend/Interest Received 37,880 32,969

Others 6,393 -16,855

Operating

2013 42,991

2014 83,504

Net Income 63,276 44,256

Changes in assets & liabilities -12,069 17,966

Income Tax -2,276 -2,553

Non-Cash Adjustment -14,094 15,834

Interest - net 8,154 8,001

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

63,927 58,018

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

47,641 63,927

Cash In/(Out)

16,286 -5,909

Adjustment

-73 -

Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only)

45

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

Others

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd GPSC 30.10%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%

International Trading Business Group

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group

Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 31 December 2014

International Investment

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER 100.00%

PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%

46

46

Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Dec 2014

Customers1 Sales Price Structure

Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +

Power Producers 59%

: EGAT 27%

: IPP 17%

: SPP 15%

Average Purchased Gas Price

1.75%

1.75%

9.33%

21.9 Bt/MMBtu

GSP 20% Charged at the same price structure of power producers

Petrochemicals Feedstocks

Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price

Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil

Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.

NGV 7% Capped at 12.5 Baht/Kg from Dec 2014

Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals

NGL Reference to Naphtha market price

Local Cooking Gas

Export Cooking Gas

Capped at 333 USD/ton

• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions

1 As at Jan, 2015 47

47

Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry

Source : PTT 48

48

Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand

Primary Energy Consumption

Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 04 Nov 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

32%

38%

15%

13%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal/Lignite

Hydro/Import

KBD

Renewable

2%

2,307

1,917

32%

40%

14%

12% 2%

28%

39%

18%

3% 12%

3,281

27%

35%

22%

3%

13%

2,841 Nuclear

26%

32%

25%

4%

12%

1%

3,701

49

49

Gas Business Generates Stable Returns

Sole owner and operator of entire

gas transmission pipelines in

Thailand (3,678 km), a regulated

business

• IRROE ranges between

12.5% - 18% for transmission

pipeline investment

Supply & marketing of natural gas

provides fixed margin with long-term

contracts of 25-30 years

6 Gas Separation Plants; Total

production 6.7 MTA; are on

petrochemical market price-linked

profit sharing basis

2014 Year in Review Gas transmission pipeline capacity

Phu Hom

Nam Phong

Thailand

Ban I Tong

Ratchaburi

Nakhon Sawan

SBK

NBK

The Luang

Nakhon Ratchasima

Kaong Khoi

Samut Prakan

ESB

Bang Pakong

Khanom

Songkhla

Sadao

Yadana

Yetagun

Chon Buri

Rayong

Wang Noi

Thai-Malaysia

(JDA)

Arthit

Arthit–FPSO Erawan

Pailin Bongkot

South Bongkot

Chevron–Additional

Platong

Tantawan

Benchamas

Natural gas fields

Power plants Gas separation plant

1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong

Gas separation unit 4

in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Existing pipeline

Future pipeline

Andaman Sea

50

50

grand hyatt erawan bangkok 13 mar 2015 - listed...

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