godrejconsumerproducts_2qfy2014ru_221113

8/12/2019 GodrejConsumerProducts_2QFY2014RU_221113

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly result (Consolidated)Y/E March ( cr) 2QFY14 2QFY13 yoy 1QFY14 qoq

Revenue 1,957 1,595 22.7 1,720 13.8

EBITDA 295 244 21.1 221 33.8

OPM (%) 15.1 15.3 (20)bp 12.8 226bp

Adjusted PAT 195 159 22.3 130 49.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), in its 2QFY2014 results, reported a

healthy top-line growth of 22.7% yoy to `

1,957cr. The OPM fell by 20bp yoy to15.1%. Bottom-line rose by 22.3% yoy.

Key highlights of the quarter: GCPLs India business grew by 14% yoy to ` 1,024cr. The Soaps business grew by a muted 3% yoy aided by a volumegrowth of 4%. The Household Insecticides business posted an impressive growthof 25% yoy. The Hair Colours business too posted a strong growth of 24%. TheInternational business posted a growth of 33% yoy to ` 941cr. The Indonesianbusiness posted a growth of 14% yoy while the Africa business grew by 53% yoy.The Latin America and Europe businesses posted a growth of 19% and 102%respectively. The companys gross margin rose by 184bp yoy, aided by lowerraw material prices on a yoy basis. However, the OPM was down 20bp on a yoybasis, largely due to higher advertisement expenses, both in the domestic andinternational businesses. Advertising expenses as a percentage of sales rose by154bp on a yoy basis. The OPM was also impacted due to 58% hike in workerswages and higher fuel prices in Indonesia. However, calibrated price increasestaken by the company to pass on these costs have pushed up the margins on asequential basis.

Outlook and valuation: Going ahead we expect GCPLs consolidated top-lineand bottom-line to grow at a CAGR of 19.3% and 19.6% over FY2013-15E.

At the current market price, the stock is trading at 28.7x FY2015E consolidatedearnings. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Key Financials (consolidated)Y/E March ( cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

Net Sales 4,851 6,391 7,801 9,094

% chg 33.2 31.7 22.1 16.6

Net Profit (Adj.) 550 700 825 1,022

% chg 14.2 27.3 17.9 23.9

EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 15.6 15.1 15.8EPS ( ) 16.2 20.6 24.2 30.0

P/E (x) 53.3 41.9 35.5 28.7P/BV (x) 10.4 8.9 7.4 6.2

RoE (%) 33.2 27.6 24.1 24.6RoCE (%) 18.8 17.5 17.9 20.5EV/Sales (x) 6.3 4.8 3.9 3.3EV/EBITDA (x) 35.4 30.8 25.9 20.9

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 21, 2013

NEUTRALCMP ` 872 Target Price - Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt ( ` cr) 949

Bloomberg Code GCPL@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 63.3

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 1.2

FII / NRIs / OCBs 28.7

Indian Public / Others 6.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 13.0 9.6 3.3

GCPL 4.7 28.2 99.7

Reuters Code GOCP.BO

BSE Sensex 20,229

Nifty 5,999

Avg. Daily Volume 54,070

Face Value ( ` ) 1

Beta 0.3

52 Week High / Low 977/661

FMCG

Market Cap ( ` cr) 29,329

V Srinivasan022-39357800 Ext: [email protected]

Godrej Consumer Products

Performance Highlights

Result Update 2QFY2014 | FMCGNovember 22, 2013


2/11

GCPL | 2QFY2014 Result Update

November 22, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Consolidated)Y/E March ( cr) 2QFY14 2QFY13 yoy 1QFY14 qoq 1HFY2014 1HFY2013 chg

Net Sales 1,957 1,595 22.7 1,720 13.8 3,680 2,988 23.1

Consumption of RM 906 768 18.0 801 13.1 1,706 1,464 16.6(% of Sales) 46.3 48.1 46.5 46.4 49.0

Staff Costs 202 133 51.7 179 12.8 381 262 45.4

(% of Sales) 10.3 8.4 10.4 10.4 8.8

Advertising 221 155 42.1 239 (7.7) 460 314 46.4

(% of Sales) 11.3 9.7 13.9 12.5 10.5

Other Expenses 333 295 13.0 281 18.9 616 505 22.0

(% of Sales) 17.0 18.5 16.3 16.7 16.9

Total Expenditure 1,662 1,351 23.0 1,500 10.8 3,163 2,545 24.3

Operating Profit 295 244 21.1 221 33.8 516 443 16.5

OPM 15.1 15.3 12.8 14.0 14.8

Interest 26 20 28.5 24 6.9 50 36

Depreciation 24 21 18.3 22 10.3 47 41 14.8

Other Income 17 19 (11.5) 18 (3.4) 35 38 (7.5)

Forex loss/ (gain) 6 8 (16.5) 15 (58.9) 22 25 (13.8)

PBT (excl. Ext Items) 256 215 19.0 177 44.8 433 378 14.4

Ext Income/(Expense) - - 2 (2) -

PBT (incl. Ext Items) 256 215 19.0 179 43.0 435 378 15.0

(% of Sales) 13.1 13.5 10.4 11.8 12.7

Provision for Taxation 47 48 34 81 59 37.5

(% of PBT) 18.3 22.1 19 19 16

PAT (reported) bef MI 209 168 24.8 145 43.9 354 320 10.8PATM 10.7 10.5 8.4 9.6 10.7

Minority Interest 14 8 13 27 30

Reported PAT 195 159 22.3 133 46.9 327 290 12.9

Equity shares (cr) 34 34 34 34 32

FDEPS ( ) 5.7 4.7 22.3 3.9 46.9 9.6 9.0 7.4


Exhibit 2: Actual vs Angel estimates( cr) Actual Angel est. chg

Revenue 1,957 1,950 0.4EBITDA 295 279 5.9

OPM (%) 15.1 14.3 79

Adjusted PAT 195 182 6.9



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November 22, 2013 3

Top-line growth steady at 22.7%

GCPL, in its 2QFY2014 results, reported a healthy top-line growth of 22.7% yoy to ` 1,957cr. The domestic and international businesses posted a top-line growth of14% yoy and 33% yoy respectively.

Exhibit 3: Robust top-line performance


Growth in domestic business ahead of category growth

GCPLs domestic business grew by 14%, with all the three business segmentsoutperforming their respective category growth rates. Household Insecticides,

posted a growth of 25% with the key brands Hit and Good Knight continuing togain market share and strengthening their market leadership position. During thequarter, the company launched Goodknight Fast Card, a non electric format, easyto use mosquito repellant. The Soaps business posted a muted 3% yoy growthimpacted by slower ramp up in one of the key consumer offers and politicalturmoil in Andhra Pradesh. Volume growth for the soaps business stood at 4%.Hair Colours posted a value growth of 24%, much ahead of category growth.Growth was led by Godrej Expert Rich Hair Crme and Godrej Expert Rich HairColour . During the quarter, the company launched Godrej Expert Rich Hair Crmein South India.

International business posts strong top-line growth

The companys International business posted a top-line growth of 33% yoy to ` 941cr. Constant currency growth in Indonesia, Africa, Latin America and Europestood at 13%, 53%, 23% and 88% respectively. Growth in Indonesia and Latin

America was led by continuous marketing investments, and new product launches. While the African business posted a steady performance in a overall manner,business momentum in South Africa was impacted due to low consumerconfidence in the country. Poor macro environment in the country resulted in salesde-growth in key retail chains. The country witnessed auto workers strike and theconsumer spending is at 10-year low.

1 , 1

8 6

1 , 3

4 4

1 , 3

2 3

1 , 3

8 9

1 , 5

9 5

1 , 6

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1 , 7

1 6

1 , 7

2 0

1 , 9

5 7

24.5

35.9

30.9

39.2

34.5

25.829.7

23.922.7

-

5.010.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2 Q 1 2

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4 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

2 Q 1 3

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4 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

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( % )

( ` c r

)

Top-line (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)


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November 22, 2013 4

Exhibit 4: International businessRegion 2QFY2014 2QFY2013 (yoy )

Net Sales ( cr)

LATAM 154 129 19Indonesia 361 317 14

Afica 250 163 53

Europe 138 68 102

OPM (yoy bp)

LATAM 7.0 3.1 390Indonesia 17.0 18.7 (170)

Africa 14.0 15.6 (160)Europe 10.0 9.4 60


Bottom-line up 22.3% yoy

The companys gross margin rose by 184bp yoy aided by lower raw materialprices on a yoy basis. However, the OPM was down 20bp on yoy basis largely dueto higher advertisement expenses both in the domestic and international business.

Advertising expenses as a percentage of sales rose by 154bp on a yoy basis.However, advertising expenses as a percentage of sales fell by 263bp on asequential basis, which the Management attributed to the scaling up of newlaunches. The OPM was also impacted due to a 58% hike in workers wages andhigher fuel prices in Indonesia. Margins of the Indonesian business were alsoaffected due to distribution arrangement for divested foods business in Indonesiaat break-even margins. However, calibrated price increases taken by the companyto pass on cost increases have pushed up the margins on a sequential basis inIndonesia. The companys bottom-line rose by 22.3% yoy aided by 21.1% yoyincrease in operating profit and lower tax rate.

Exhibit 5: Recurring PAT performance


1 4 4

1 6 7

1 6 8

1 3 0

1 5 9

1 7 2

2 0 5

1 3 0

1 9 5

10.8

39.1

18.3

30.3

24.8 3.1

22.4

1.722.3

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.030.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

10

60

110

160

210

260

2 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

4 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

2 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

4 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

2 Q 1 4

( % )

( ` c r

)

PAT (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)


5/11


November 22, 2013 5

Exhibit 6: Gross margin and OPM


Exhibit 7: Ad spends/sales rise y-o-y


Investment rationale Acquisitions to drive future growth: GCPLs recent acquisitions have been in

line with its 3X3 strategy and are expected to enable the company to spread itsfootprint and grow inorganically. GCPLs Indonesian subsidiary Megasari(acquired in April 2010) has been consistently posting a healthy financialperformance. The acquisition of Darling Group, the market leader in hairextension products in the African continent; and Chile based CosmeticaNacional will continue to drive strong growth for the company in Africa andLatAm. The Management has constantly reiterated that all recent internationalacquisitions have been EPS-accretive.

Synergistic benefits due to integration of GHPL business: We believe there aresignificant synergistic benefits in terms of distribution and supply-chainnetworks through the integration of Godrej Household Products Ltd (GHPL),which are likely to get reflected in GCPLs performance going ahead.Moreover, GHPLs strong presence in Southern India complements GCPLsstrong presence in Northern India extremely well, giving GCPL a balancedpresence.

Outlook and valuation

Going ahead we expect GCPLs consolidated top-line and bottom-line to grow at aCAGR of 19.3% and 19.6% over FY2013-15E. At the current market price, the

stock is trading at 28.7x FY2015E consolidated earnings. We maintain our Neutralrating on the stock.

17.4 19.7 18.814.3 15.3 16.6 16.0 12.8 15.1

51.6 53.5 53.6 52.2 51.9 55.5 55.1 53.5 53.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2 Q 1 2

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( % )

OPM Gross Margin

1 1 1

1 1 2

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1 5 3

1 5 5

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2 2 1

9.4

8.3 8.3

11.09.7

10.79.5

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-

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10

60

110

160

210

260

2 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

4 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

2 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

4 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

2 Q 1 4

( % )

( ` c r

)

Absolute ASP (LHS) ASP as % of sales (RHS)


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November 22, 2013 6

Exhibit 8: Peer valuationCompany Reco. Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR

( cr) ( ) ( ) ( ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E Sales PAT

Asian Paints Neutral 48,967 511 - - 38.7 32.6 3.8 3.2 35.1 32.6 15.6 16.2Britannia Neutral 10,515 880 - - 33.6 28.1 1.6 1.3 42.2 38.4 15.9 27.7

Colgate Neutral 17,035 1,253 - - 32.7 27.9 4.6 3.9 96.2 92.5 15.7 10.7

Dabur India Neutral 28,003 161 - - 30.2 25.8 3.9 3.4 39.1 36.5 15.4 19.1

Godrej Con Neutral 29,322 862 - - 35.5 28.7 3.9 3.3 24.1 24.6 19.3 19.6

GSK Con* Neutral 18,687 4,443 - - 36.7 30.7 4.7 3.9 34.0 33.3 17.6 19.7

HUL Neutral 124,463 576 - - 34.6 31.5 4.2 3.7 111.7 88.2 12.6 11.4

ITC Neutral 247,050 313 - - 28.4 24.4 6.5 5.5 36.1 34.9 14.3 16.8

Marico Neutral 13,453 209 - - 28.5 23.3 2.7 2.3 21.5 21.7 10.3 26.1

Nestle* Neutral 52,950 5,492 - - 44.8 36.8 5.6 4.7 56.1 50.3 14.4 14.3

TGBL Neutral 8,893 144 - - 19.9 17.4 1.1 0.9 8.9 9.5 11.0 12.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: # Denotes CAGR for FY2013-15E;*December year ending

Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E chart

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average

-5.0

10.0

15.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

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November 22, 2013 7

Company background

GCPL is a leading FMCG company in the household and personal care productscategory, with brands such as Good Knight, Hit, Cinthol, Godrej No.1 and Expert.The company has built a foothold in Africa, Latin America, Indonesia and UKthrough several acquisitions. Currently, ~40% of the company's revenue comesfrom its international business.

Profit & loss statement (consolidated)Y/E March ( cr) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Total operating income 2,044 3,646 4,866 6,407 7,817 9,110

% chg 46.3 78.4 33.5 31.7 22.0 16.5

Total expenditure 1,634 3,002 3,987 5,392 6,627 7,661

Cost of Materials 946 1,749 2,316 2,951 3,627 4,274

Advertising Exp 133 352 450 652 842 909Personnel 152 285 392 591 741 846

Others 403 617 830 1,199 1,416 1,632

EBITDA 407 641 864 999 1,174 1,432

% chg 96.6 57.3 34.8 15.6 17.6 22.0

(% of Net Sales) 20.0 17.6 17.8 15.6 15.1 15.8

Depreciation & amort 24 50 64 77 99 115

EBIT 384 591 799 922 1,075 1,317

% chg 104.2 54.0 35.3 15.3 16.7 22.5

(% of Net Sales) 18.8 16.2 16.5 14.4 13.8 14.5

Interest & other Charges 11 52 66 77 66 50Other Income 45 70 52 68 117 117

(% of PBT) 10.7 11.4 6.5 7.3 10.2 8.3

Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 420 612 801 928 1,143 1,401

% chg 100.7 45.7 30.9 16.0 23.1 22.5

Prior Period & Extra Exp/(Inc.) - (33) (180) (96) - -

PBT (reported) 420 645 980 1,025 1,143 1,401

Tax 80 130 226 179 269 329

(% of PBT) 19.1 21.3 28.2 19.3 23.5 23.5

PAT (reported) 340 515 754 845 874 1,071

Add: Share of earn. of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) - - 24.5 49.3 49.3 49.3

PAT after MI (reported) 340 515 730 796 825 1,022

ADJ. PAT 340 482 550 700 825 1,022

% chg 96.7 41.8 14.2 27.3 17.9 23.9

(% of Net Sales) 16.6 13.2 11.3 11.0 10.6 11.2

Basic EPS ( ) 11.0 14.9 16.2 20.6 24.2 30.0

Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 10.0 14.2 16.2 20.6 24.2 30.0

% chg 96.7 41.8 14.2 27.3 17.9 23.9


8/11


November 22, 2013 8

Balance Sheet (consolidated)Y/E March ( cr) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 31 32 34 34 34 34Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 924 1,693 2,781 3,279 3,905 4,728

Shareholders Funds 955 1,725 2,815 3,313 3,939 4,762

Minority Interest - - 88.00 209.51 258.84 308.17

Total Loans 37 2,001 1,877 2,247 2,047 1,547

Deferred Tax Liability 7 1 (1) (14) (14) (14)

Long term Provisions 18 22 22 22 22

Other long term liabilities 9 7 7 7 7

Total Liabilities 998 3,754 4,809 5,785 6,260 6,632

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 359 660 728 940 1,200 1,399

Less: Acc. Depreciation 153 377 494 571 670 785

Net Block 206 282 234 369 530 614

Capital Work-in-Progress 1 8 38 47 60 70

Goodwill 368 2,795 3,458 4,221 4,371 4,521

Investments 67 - - - - -Long term loans and adv. 167 246 246 246 246Current Assets 910 1,237 2,041 2,798 3,177 3,512

Cash 305 227 640 869 990 988

Loans & Advances 225 187 145 153 148 148

Other 380 823 1,256 1,776 2,038 2,376Current liabilities 553 736 1,208 1,897 2,124 2,331

Net Current Assets 357 501 833 901 1,052 1,181

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 998 3,754 4,809 5,785 6,260 6,632


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November 22, 2013 9

Cash flow StatementY/E March ( cr) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Profit before tax 420 612 801 928 1,143 1,401

Depreciation 24 50 64 77 99 115Change in Working Capital (13) (389) (11) 167 (33) (141)

Interest / Dividend (Net) (16) 25 18 23 (38) (54)

Direct taxes paid 80 130 226 179 269 329

Others (24) 173 197 50 4 9

Cash Flow from Operations 310 342 842 1,066 906 1,001

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets 34 (2,736) (760) (985) (423) (359)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (67) 67 - - - -

Cash Flow from Investing (33) (2,669) (760) (985) (423) (359)

Issue of Equity 5 498 657 - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (241) 1,973 (126) 370 (200) (500)

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 104 197 182 199 199 199

Interest / Dividend (Net) (16) 25 18 23 (38) (54)

Cash Flow from Financing (324) 2,249 331 148 (361) (645)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (47) (78) 413 229 122 (3)

Opening Cash balances 352 305 227 640 869 990

Closing Cash balances 305 227 640 869 990 988


10/11


November 22, 2013 10

Key ratios Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 86.3 60.9 53.3 41.9 35.5 28.7P/CEPS 73.1 52.5 45.9 35.5 30.1 24.7

P/BV 27.8 16.2 10.4 8.9 7.4 6.2

Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/Sales 14.2 8.5 6.3 4.8 3.9 3.3

EV/EBITDA 71.3 48.5 35.4 30.8 25.9 20.9

EV / Total Assets 29.1 8.3 6.4 5.3 4.9 4.5

Per Share Data ( )

EPS (Basic) 11.0 14.9 16.2 20.6 24.2 30.0

EPS (fully diluted) 10.0 14.2 16.2 20.6 24.2 30.0

Cash EPS 11.8 16.4 18.8 24.3 28.6 34.9

DPS 4.1 5.0 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0

Book Value 31.0 53.3 82.7 97.4 115.8 139.9

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 41.5 25.0 18.8 17.5 17.9 20.5

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 166.7 121.5 113.9 135.3 138.8 133.2

ROE 44.5 38.4 33.2 27.6 24.1 24.6

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.7 5.5 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.5

Inventory / Sales (days) 47 44 59 59 59 59

Receivables (days) 21 38 36 37 37 37

Payables (days) 95 72 87 105 96 90 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 9 42 30 15 13 17


11/11


November 22, 2013 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document shouldmake such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of thecompanies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determinethe merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in thisdocument are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions andtrading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company'sfundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannottestify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.

While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may beregulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment bankingor other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report orin the past.

Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise fromor in connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement GCPL

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

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