global wind energy report 2008

8/8/2019 Global Wind Energy Report 2008

1/601

O c t O b e r 2 0 0 8

GlObal Wind enerGy

OutlOOk 200 8


2/602

Co

1 . drivers Or Wind enerGy 4

s o 5

eoo oo 5 eo o 6

2. the WOrlds Wind resOurces 8

3. technOlOGy

a n d i n d ustr i a l d e ve lO p m e nt 10

mo w 11

m o 12

i oo 12

4. GlObal statusO the Wind enerGy market 14

eo 15

eo uo 15

G 17

s 17

i 17

17

u kgo 17

po 17

t 18

no a 18

u s 18

c 19

a 19

c 19

i 20

l a 21

bz 21

mo 21

m e & a 22

eg 22

mooo 22

p rgo 23

a 23

nw Z 23

5 . inteGratinG Wind enerGy

intO electricity Grids 24

v o w ow 25

dg oo o ow 25

sog oo 26

G 27

W ow oo o q 27

G oo 27

6. Wind pOWer

and the envirOnment 28

eo b 29 cO

2o 29

a oo 29

O 29

eo i 30

v 30

no 31

b 31

Oo w 33

coo 33

7. the GlObal Wind enerGy OutlOOk

scenariOs 34

so 35

r o 35

mo o 35

a o 35

eg ojo 35

r d pojo 35

eg e d pojo 36

m ao p 36

Gow 36

t 36

c o 36

c o og o 37

so r 39 r o 39

mo o 40

a o 40

rgo ow 40

co b 43

i 43

Go o 43

eo 44

co o g 46

r bgo 46

t G ao c 46

so go 47

eg 47

do o go o w iea o 48

8. internatiOnal actiOn On

climate chanGe 50

t koo pooo 51

m 51

co coo 53

W g cdm oj 54

W g Ji oj 55

t o o-2012 g 55

annex 58


3/603

Foo

Over the past year Or sO o-

o w g

o o g o .

W o o ipcc, iea o

g g o o o

wo, w ow gog o

g o o g g o o.

c, o w ow ow o g

g o o w o w

go o g g.

b ow o o w ? W o

go w ( o g :) w o ? t qo

Go W eg Ooo o w.

pogoo go o

o. W o o o

g o ow w o o g,

ow o gow

g o, w w ow

g g o , o

50 o us o 2007 o. mo w ow w

eo 2007 o oog, o

40% o w ow go , o

o o 30% o w go

u s g o. O q

g o ,

jo o 2007 w o eo, o-

u s c.

t o w ow o f

o g o o. t o

og o wo , jo o o ,

o wo

o g o. a , o go

go g og g o

, o o ow,

o, o o o oo

w ow g, og g o q jo

o o o oo, -

. o sww, t, o uq

c xjg o; o c i o oz

ne bz, o swg ho o t b

o, w ow g w jo

oo oo o ; w, o

o, , o- .

a go gg o o w -

o g, o o go. a ow ipcc 4

a ro, go o go

go g o , g o 2020

. t w o g

go o o wo g o

g. t o, oj o

w g.

t ow o o o w

o o go g o, g,

og o 40% o go o o o.

i w w o jo ow o

o w ow 2020, oo:

o, ; wo, wg o o o g;

, w, w o w ow

.

a o Go W eg Ooo,

w o o w un

s G g gg o

21 . W o w gwo, o o o.

steve saWyer

Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council

sven teske

Director Renewable Energy Campaign Greenpeace International

arthOurOs ZervOs

Chairman Global Wind Energy Council


4/604

1 . drivers Or Wind enerGy


5/605

the grOwth OF the market o w g g

o o, g w o o

g , g o o o-

, g,

o oog . t o

o go o wo o og o

o o o.

sc o l

Go o g g g

, c, i o og oo. t wo

g w q g w

ow gg g ,

og wo.

i o o.

W g, o o

oo og o . m o

ow w oo o wog .

t iea 2030, o 2,000 GW o ow

go w o Oecd

o, g o g .

J g o o , o

o ow go, og

o o o . O

o o jo oo o wo -

g g o o o,

o o go o wo w of

o o .

i o o og o

oo , o , w g

go ow o w

o wo. t o

o, o go-o o o

o o o go.

e ow/o g w ow

o o o o, og o

o o o ,

w o o o u s w

o o o o o o o

o . t g o oo o

a, a so a wo oo

o .

W ow o g o

o g oog. e g

oo w , w q g o

g wo oo,

o o wo . t o w

og o oo ow o

o.

ecooc coo

W g o oo . i o o

w g, o o ow , o

o o o w w ow:

zo. o oo go oog,

o g o,

o, o o g

o o .

W ow, ow, ow ow

g gog o o. no oo oog

( o w ow gg

oog) . t o

o o o o ow

oo, o o go g o

g o ooo o

o w g o o oo

.

i o, , w ow o

w w- oo oog, o . aog og o w g,

oo go

o ( w o o w g

: go z oo

oog o o 250 o usd/), w

ow o , w g o

o o o, w o gowg

o .

rgo oo o o o

oo oo og w g. o

swg-ho o G, o a

s; o us p now o w t o

d r i v e r s O r W i n d e n e r G y


6/606

p; o xjg i mogo c

o t n Gj i, w ow

g go oo, og q jo

g go ggg o

oo og o go fg o

.

eol coc

c g ow g o g

o g wo, g o

o o o

jo o o o . t un igo-

p o c cg oj g

o wo w o 5.8c

o og . t o w

g o , g g , foog oow-g , o, og o g

w .

O o g o no pz wg

ipcc 4 a ro 2007 w

o o o wo g o g, go

go g o g o

o 2020.

W ow o o g o

w o o g, g g

o o o, og o o 40% o cO2

o, o 25% o o o. t oo

o g jo o o ow o

w ow 2020 : g

oo; wg o o o g;

w g, w ow.

W ow o o g g

o o o o o w og

jo o wo og o o

o g. W o

o o oo, w o o

oo, o o o

o 20 . , g

o-o wo, w ow -

g og ow o o -

.

G o 2020 g w go

o o , o o ow o o og

g. bg oo ow 10 o

12 o o, o, o ow g

g. W ow o o,

o w j ow ,

g o g ow o oo

o o g.

ao oo o w g o o

w. i g w- wo, w ow

o o o o o oo

oo. mo oo oog, o g



7/607

o o og oog

w o o .

O o g o g o

o g

go g o o oo g,

oo o

o w o o o

oo w g o .

eog w o o g, g w

ow, o z.



8/608

2. the WOrlds Wind resOurces


9/609

One OF the questiOns o o o w

ow w w w o ow. W

o o qo w 5 (G

go), g w

o o g wo

o. i , o,

g , w w o o o

w g oog, g o o

o o go o. how, wow

o o o o o

o.

r so u Go c eg poj o o go

o o w ow, g o o us

no c d c o s

loo 1). t wo w o

g o og ow o o go

g . a og o 7,500

500 oo- oog o o

go w 80 o go

, o 13% g w

o 6.9 o (c 3), o

oo w ow go. ug o 20% o

o o o ow go, o o-

w g o wo

2000 o.

no a w o o g w ow

o, og o o og w w

o no eo, w o o so

a a o t o o

g og w. to , ow,

o g w o o o, o o; w

o oo o, o

oo o, w oo.

o , oog o o ow

w o o o o

o o us, o m o no co,

g o o w o o o-

o o g w o o

o z, o g-

og go o wo 2).

a G ao co o Go cg

(WbGu), Wo to tow s eg

s (2003) go

o o g oo o o oo

oo w o w 278,000 tW (tw

o) . t o o 1015%

o o wo o,

g o o 39,000 tW

oo o w g og

, w o o go

.

t WbGu o o o w o g o w o ooog

o o 14 o (19791992). t o

-gw w g

o wo . lo o o

og g

o, w, , g .

ag, o o , w o g o-

o o w g o .

loog o o w o 13

og o, sWera (so W eg

ro a) oj, o u

no eo pog, o o,

o , o 7,000 mW o w G

26,000 mW s l. n o

o o o g o.

a o og, sWera

2006 o g og w o og g

q oo o w g o o

o go o wo, og w oo o w w

g o . t o o

gg o o-g , w s

3t g g wo og

2008, w go o g o -

o wo 2010.

i , w ow ,

o ow o, o w o o

g o.

3 . t h e W O r l d s W i n d r e s O u r c e s

1 Archer, C. L., and M. Z. Jacobson (2005), Evaluation o global wind power, J. Geophys. Res.,110, D12110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005462.

2 Kempton, W., C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson (2007), Large CO2

reductions via oshore wind power matched to inherent storage in energy enduses, Geophys.Res. Lett., 34, L 02817, doi:10.1029/


10/6010

3. technOlOGy and industrial

develOpment


11/6011

mo

s 1980, w o w

w o, ,

g o oo.

aog w ow

g o, g ooo

o . t jo o

o ow o o ozo w

. t o oo

o w ow og go o

go. t go go o w og . so g o

go g . t -

ow ow o o o

g wo.

W o o w g o w

- o 3-4 o o o 25 /,

w o 90 / (56 ), wo

q o g o 9 o 10. t jo o

o o o o

w gg g o og

oo, g o wg oo w

o og . Oo

o o g w

o o w

oo o g. so oo

g o o

o.

mo w oog o o

w g o w ow g w , zg . c o

o o w o w g ,

g w g w o

. ug gwg o

, o g ,

g.

t o c colo :

reliability

gridcompatibility

acousticperformance(noisereduction)

maximumefciencyandaerodynamicperformance

highproductivityforlowwindspeeds

offshoreexpansion

W o gow g . t

go g o 100

z o o 1980. O o, oo

g-o. t g o o wo g 2007 w

1,492 W, w g oo

eo e126, w oo o 126

ow o 6 mW.

t o g

oo , w g o

o o oo. g g

oo , og

g o o o o oo

o o o o . aog oo w

o g

o 3.6 mW, g o g o 5 mW o ow

g o o o

og .

o o , ow, w

g o z 1.5 o 3 mW g. t

oo o o o

o g, g g o o o

o .

Ogog oo g o

oo o oo o -

, o wg o

, o o o

, o oo ,

o o w g wo.

t e c h n O l O G y a n d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l O p m e n t


12/6012

mc llo

co w o oo

o ogo wo. t

g d,

G, s, u s, i c. aog

oo o eo, go

o oog ow

o o, o c, w ow

o o g g

wo.

m o w o g

g o o o o

o oo ow oo -

q.

mo o q o ;

oo o o o. t o

o o o o

go. W z o

w gw o . t g w

wo ho hoow W eg c t.

a o o 421 w o g

o 735.5 mW.

a g us o w g, t ow

g o $4.9 o ow g w

o g gw o o

o o w o o . t w

g w o o 18,000 mW o w

, og o ow o o o us o.

t o w o w o

o g g -

. i w o, o , w

o o ow w

o d, g oo o g

( chapter 5: Grid integration).

i oo

a oo , w g

o g . t jo w

ow oog -o o o o

wo o o .

a o, w g g o

o o o. i 2002, o ,

eo W w og o o

G e, o o wo g ooo. t

w oow s, w oo o d

bo eg 2004. mo , g

eo o ao a o

w .

O , g oo

ow o ow o jo ow

oo o w . s io



13/6013

w o 8,000 mW o w ow

ooo. pl eg u s w o

5,500 mW, gowg o

g w ow , uk so

e, rWe, e.On, ed o.

ao g o o o o

o w ow. bp, o , j

jo w o o u

s c. t qo w

o o g

.



14/6014

4. GlObal status O the Wind enerGy

market


15/6015

in its best year yet , go w

o o 20,000 mW o w 2007. t o-

, u s, s c, oo

wow o o 93,864 mW. t w o 31%

o w 2006 o

go o o 27%.

t o o o

o 2007 w G (22.3 GW), us (16.8 GW),

s (15.1 GW), i (7.8 GW) c (5.9 GW). i

o oo , go w 2007 w wo

o 25 o (us$37 ) w gg q

o 34 (us$50.2 ) o o -.

W eo g o w g,

w eo o j 43% o

go o, ow o 75% 2004. o

, o o w w

o eo. t o o.

eo

EuropEan union

t eo uo o o wo og

o w g o, w o 8,500 GW o

w 2007. c w

18% o o 56,535 mW.

W ow o o 30% o w

go o eu 2000

2007 o w ow w o

gg oog.

t o w ow o 2007

w o o 90 o o o cO2

o 119 tw o g w . t

q o 3.7% o eu ow .

rw g o eo

koo- g o 22% o o o o

w 2010 o o o

og 2001 eu rw eg

d. t ow o w g o

20% o g oo o w 2020,

w w g o 27 .

t o w g eo

G, s, , i uk, w po

t o o o w og

o.

t h e G l O b a l s t a t u s O W i n d p O W e r

MW

1996

6,100

1997

7,600

1998

10,200

1999

13,600

2000

17,400

2001

23,900

2002

31,100

2003

39,341

2004

47,620

2005

59,084

2006

74,051

2007

93,864

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

GLOBAL CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY 19962007


16/6016

TOP 10 NEW INSTALLED CAPACITY (JAN.-DEC. 2007)

PR China

Spain

India

Germany

France

Italy

Portugal

UK

Canada

Rest of the world US

New capacity MW %

US 5,244 26.4

Spi 3.522 17.7

PR Ci 3,304 16.6

Ii 1,575 7.9

Grmy 1,667 8.4

Frc 888 4.5

Ity 603 3.0

Prtug 434 2.2

UK 427 2.1

C 386 1.9

Rest of the world 1,815 9.1

Top 10 Total 18,050 90.9

World total 19,864 100.0

T h e G l o b a l S T a T U S o F W I n d P o W e R

MW

1996

1,280

1997

1,530

1998

2,520

1999

3,440

2000

3,760

2001

6,500

2002

7,270

2003

8,133

2004

8,207

2005

11,531

2006

15,245

2007

19,865

20,000

18,00016,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

GLOBAL ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 19962007

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000 MW

Europe North America Asia Latin America Africa & Middle East Pacific

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY BY REGION 20032007


17/6017

GErManY

W ow g w g o

G, og o 7% o o

oo. i 22,247 mW,

g o o wo. t g o 25-30%

o o o o w, w,

2020.

t og w o

og 1991, w g -

o w ow go. G

og , w go o 22%. t o o o

80,000 o.

aog o ow ow 2007 o

1,667 mW, o w g w

o G o o o

w .

Spain

t s w g w gow

2007. a o 3,522 mW o w w ,

gg o o 15,145 mW. W ow ow

10% o o .

t s o o o go

g o 20,000 mW o w g

2010. moo, s W eg

aoo (aeeo) 40,000 mW o oo

5,000 mW o oo o og 2020, og o o 30% o s .

iTaLY

t i w g gw 2007 30 % o

o o 2,726 mW. i o

o g o 12,000 mW 2020 o

2015.

t o o go

oo, o , g

oo . i 2007, ow, i

go o lw w w q

go o o o o ow

oo o w g o.

FranCE

jo w o, ow

, w g ogg .

i 2000 w o 30 mW o ; o

2007 o 2,454 mW, w

3,500 mW o o oo.

t gow o w g

o o - 2001. t go g o 25,000 mW o w

, g oo, 2020.

uniTED KinGDoM

t u kgo w g o o 15% o

g o w 2020. i w o

eo w ow o jo -

g ; b W eg aoo

13 GW o w oo 20 GW oo

2020 .

b o 2007 uk

2,389 mW, w 1,373 mW oo. i

o, o o 1,974 mW o o

7,579 mW g . s g

oo w .

poLanD

aog o, 276 mW,g o po o oo o w

ow go. t oo g o 12,000 mW

2020, og o po W eg aoo.

i 2005, po go o og

ogo o g o o g o

o w g o. u w

eu oo, po o w g

g o 15% 2020.



18/6018

TurKEY

t o g o

oog o w g o og

g o o. i 2007

o 97 mW o w w g w ,

g o o 146 mW. a o m 2008, w

o 1300 mW oo, 1100 mW o w

1500 mW g. t o

wog 78,000 mW o w o o

go .

no ac

uniTED STaTES

t us o o 5,244 mW 2007, o

o o g og o

o 30% o o w ow-og .

O us w ow gg gw 45% , w o ow g 16.8 GW.

t a w o 2007 w

g 48,000 GW 2008, j o 1% o

us ow . t us o o

o 50% o, 20% , 20% g 6%

oow, w g o o o-o

w, og o us eg ioo

ao.

mo g ow q w gowg o

: w oj o o o 30%

o w ow-og us

2007, g w ow oo o

w go.

i 2007, w ow oo w o 34 us

, w t oog mw

now o g . t w o

w ow t

(4,356 mW), co (2,439 mW), mo (1,299 mW),

iow (1,273 mW) Wgo (1,163 mW).

t gow o o

o o o oo

(ptc) o . t ptc o

us o w ow, og

1.9 us ow o o

g w w o o

oj oo, o g w

w . i o o q, oj o

gg ow w . t

g o o o o us

oo; o g o w g o.

t ptc w Oo 2008 o og

o 2009,

o o 2009 o. i

o o , og w -

w ao wog w w

cog g 2009. po, w w o

w o o , o gow

93% (2000), 73% (2002) 77% (2004).


Top TEn uS STaTES bY MEGaWaTTS oF WinD poWEr GEnEraTinG CapaCiTY (aS oF 30 JunE 2008)

Stte Estg ude cstct % f ttl stllts estg rk estg

t 5,604.65 3,162.35 28.67 1co 2,483.83 295 12.71 2

iow 1,375.28 1,586.60 7.03 3

mo 1,366.15 249.5 6.99 4

Wgo 1,289.38 77.2 6.60 5

cooo 1,066.75 0 5.46 6

Ogo 964.29 298.2 4.93 7

io 735.66 171 3.76 8

nw yo 706.8 588.5 3.62 9

Oo 689 18.9 3.52 10

Source: AWEA


19/6019

i us w o G

g w g o o 2009. t

a W eg aoo

o 7.5 GW o w w w

2008.

CanaDa

c w g o

2007. a o o 386 mW o w w

, g o 26%. c ow 1,856

mW o w .

t w oj w g 2007

c o. t g w 100.5 mW a--

v w Q, o o

ho-Q o oo o o 1,000 mW.

c 2008 w g o o

o o o 2,800 mW, o o w o

g o 2010. i o,

w o g o w 2007

o o mo, Q, nw bw

no so w o 4,700 mW o w oj

o o 20092016.

t c W eg aoo o c

w 2,600 mW o o 2008.

po go g oj c,

, o o 12,000 mW o o-

o 2016.

a

China

c 3,304 mW o w g 2007,

gow o 145% o 2006, ow

o - w 5,906 mW o

. e , ow, j g-

g, gow c o o. t

go w w g o og

o o o w o o.

k o i mogo, xjg, G

po h coo, o o no-e c, Qg-t p.

sg og g

oo g o o

o w g c. G o o

o ow o o o-

go, o o o w ow q

. t g og o o

g oj oog o o

.

t c go oo o

w g o o

oo o ow. moo, o

goo w o o oo ,

w oo o oo og

o o o go, o

oo o, g o o -

o w o w oo

.

t w g c oog. i

, o w o ,

gg gowg o

o og o oo.

a o 2007 w 40 c

o w g, og o o 56% o

q g , o 21% o

2006. t g o

. to o g ow

o 8,000 mW, o o 12 GW

2010. e jo c

Gow, so, dogg, W sw. .



20/6020

inDia

W g og o gow og i, w o

1,500 mW o w 2007, g o

o 7,845 mW. t o gow o 25%.

t o o i w ow o

o w go, o

o t n, w o o o o

o. t gg o g, w o ,

g m, Gj, rj k,

W bg, m p a p g

o . a w

oo g o o, o o

o .

t i go g o

o o 2,000 mW og .

W o-w o o w ow w j

o J o 2008, i m o nw

rw eg (mnre) g o

go o o o

o, , wg g o

g w ow oj. s e rg-

o coo (serc) w o o


FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC PLAYERS I N THE CHINESE MARKET ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%Foreign Domestic Joint Venture

2004

75%

25%

2005

70%

30%

2006

55.1%

41.3%

3.7%

2007

42.2%

55.9%

1.6%

Source: 2007 China Wind Power Report (Li Junfeng, Gao Hu); GWEC

GROWTH OF THE CHINESE MARKET 19952007

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995


21/6021

w o oog w, g w,

og ogo o

o o o o o

o w g. t o o i 29

w ogo, qg o

o o 10% o ow o w.

t i go og g -

o, g o w

o o . W wo o

o, w o o

o, o o o .

i o o g , g

go szo, w o o o o

. i o, o o o

oo i, g v, row,

s, lm G eo.

L ac

braziL

W g bz ow,

g 247 mW o 2007. t o o

o o o o o

w . W ow, ow, o gow

.

i 2002, bz go og

prOina o o o o,

w o ow go. t w w

no 2003.

i g ( o 2008/9), og g

ow o o 3,300 mW o oj, og

o q o 1,100 mW o o

oog. W w o

1,400 mW. t bz -oo

eo ow o w g

20 ow g -

.

Og o g o prOina w g w

o g o w o o

10% o oo w 20 .

rw g go wo q

o rw eg c ooo o

o o g o. how, g

o prOina og,

o o g o w oj

go o.

po o 2008 o o: 14 w

oo prOina

og, w o o 107.3 mW. i o,

27 w g 901.29 mW o

o g 2009.

mo 5,000 mW o w g oj

g w bz rgo ag

(aneel), wg o o o w

o o o ow w g oo.

t oj o-prOina, go o o o ,

oo o

ow.

MExiCo

d o o o, o

w g mo ow, o

o go o go

wo ogg o o. a

, o 85 mW, w

g w o 83.3 mW



22/6022

l v oj o s oo

io-G.

a o o o o

w g o mo, g jo

c-G, d, ed-en, eo, z

e, io, p, u o. aog o

m W eg aoo (amdee), o

o ooo o 2,600 mW O

o 1,000 mW bj co o o

o 2008-2010.

t ooo oo o o o o w w g

mo. i o, g oj o

o o o g g g-

o, w o o. moo,

og o o ow

w g o oo .

ml e & ac

EGYpT

eg jo w g,

sz G, w g w o 10 /.

eg w g o j 5 mW

2001 o 310 mW o 2007, w 80 mW o w

2007.

t Z oj o G o sz ow o

eg w . O, 305 mW

g o 2001 og o 2007. e ooo Z ow o 1,000 GW

g o o 40.6%. a 240 mW

o o.

i o o , o 656 2 o

o 3,000 mW w G o e-Z o G o

sz o. s g o o

o o o g w o o 200 mW

ooo w G go, 220 mW

ooo w J 400 mW o

oj.

i a 2007, eg s co o eg o

o o g 20% o o -

o w o 2020, g 12%

oo o w. t wo o 7,200 mW

o g-o w . i o w g

o eg o

og w g o o

o; g o o g

o w g.

MoroCCo

W 3,000 o o g g w

(7.5-9.5 / o 9.5-11 / o), w

ow o o o og o o w

g go mooo. t moo go

o o w o

124 mW, og 2% o o , o1,000 mW 2012. a , go g o

og o o 600 mW ow o

to, t tz.

t moo no pog o do o

rw eg eg e (pnderee)

w o o oo o

w g o 20% o o o-

o 10% o g 2012 ( 7.9%

3.4 % ).


23/6023

pcc ro

auSTraLia

W o o wo w o, a

o w g. t gowg

g o oo, goo o g -

w og g .

aog o ow ,

g o go o 2007 o o

g o w g. W o o g wo

o o, w lo p m k r

koo pooo, gg a

o o g go g o. t

o o og- o w g

o.

to og w o 2007 w 824

mW. i o, oj w o o o

860 mW w o g o oo. sg

w o og og g g, w

o 400 mW g g o g 2007.

t w go a o g

o 2% o o o o w g 2020

o 20%. t g w q o 10,000 mW o w

w g oj o o .

t w o o jo o g

.

nEW zEaLanD

nw Z w g gowg

. c o o 2007, o 171 mW o

322 mW.

t w o o o

o go, ow w

g oo o w o o o

go. O o o

o w o g

o. i 2006 g o o nw

Z w w 41%. t o 2007

45%, w o w g o 70%

w o.

i 2007 go o g o nw Zo g 90% o o w o

2025. i g o 65%, o

o. to g, w g o gow

o 200 mW .

W o o 1.5% o nw Z

, w oo o

o o o go go, o-

o o gow. do g o o

oj w o o o 1,800 mW.


24/6024

5. i nteGratinG Wind enerGy intO

electricity Grids


25/6025

wind pOwer as a generatiOn sOurCe

, w gog

o. t g o go o

g o o w ow o g.

i o o g g o o w ow -

, o o , g

g oo o ow , g

g oo o w ow 1).

vl o o

W ow o g

o, o . i , ow

, w g o o o g

, o g. t o

o ggg w , j ow

.

s w ow oo o w,

o o w o ,

f o ooog fo. t o

o o : o, , o, ,

o, o . ug g

o o gg w

ow o ow o o .

e fow o

, ow f g

o o,

g o o w o og

ogo, oo oo.

cgg w o w g, oog

gg o o, o o o

ow o tv o. O , w

g ow o, , o, go

of, w o ow, o o

o, g o o

o gw. b o, w g o o

o . vo oo

o o o w

g ow o, g o oo

o g g . e g,

o g, o w

o owg o .

p gg w ow ,

g og o-

g o. to, w ow o q

o ggg w g . ug g

o w o, w ow go

o , o o

go o o o o

o 72 o , o o

o. ug oo, o o o

g w w 10 20% o ow o

o o ozo o 36 o. o go ggg

w o o o o 10% o

5% o 1-4 o .

t o gog o o g-

. W g w ow

wg o o o o o o 60% o ,

oog G iset ow

o o o 350 mW o

ggg w G o o 20%.

ao g , no og o

o (, sw, now e d),

g o o wo 10%,

og o . 3)

d oo o o

O o o q g og

o o gg w g o

wo oo. a

,

w o (ow o) og o o g o (o) g o.

t g og og . o

g oo, o og

w o . i o

o o oog, w

, .

pow w o w

o o o g ow , o-

o w o

w ow oo w. t o o o

o , ow o , g

, w oo o o .

i n t e G r a t i n G W i n d e n e r G y i n t O e l e c t r i c i t y G r i d s

1 See also EWEA (2009 - orthcoming): Wind Energy The Facts, Volume 22 ibid

3 Holttinen, H. (2004): The impact o large scale wind power on the Nordic electricity system


26/6026

e ow oo o

o g w

o q o og w

o o w g o o

o o 20%, g o o

qo. t 20% g ,

w w o o . t o

f ow o og o o

o o ,

go o go o w

g. i , f , w o

g o o ow g go

ow , w g g o wow g wo jo g.

W eo, d g 21% o go

o w, s o 12%,

pog 9%, i 8% G 7%. so go

g o. i w o

d, o , o 100% o

o w ow.

G oo o eo o, g

s pog, ow o oo

w oo g

o f o w .

t o w ow o o

ow o g

oog o g . e w o

60 GW eo, o , ow w

o g, ow o

oo, w o g

o.

ao q g og w ow

o o o go

q, o w ow o

.

W ow o o o

go g ow , g o

w w o ow z, go ,

o o, z g g o g

oo. how, g ow

g o o o,

ow. t f o oow

g o og o w

.

s o o -

o w gowg w o

o. u o o 20% o w ow o,

o w

g . s o go

o g o o o 0 o 3 /

mW o o w ow o 20%. i s, w 12%

o w o, o o g ow w

2007 1.4 /mW 4).

t o g o o w g-

w go o o o 10% o w

ow go o 5), g o ow

f, o o- og

g-o ow . t

o o o ow o o zo.

i o o o o gg g o

w, f o ow . t

oo o f go ,

og , f o , o-

o w o ow o f

ow .

so oo

t g o g og

o ,

og o wo. t

g o og oog o w.

o g- og, o o og

(pac) o oo ow oog,

w o o go. ao oog

oo o g o g

og (caes).

O og oo fw,

, o oo w ,

, o -o. o,

oo o o o o o

l on n owr loon (chp) n

orr o nr oronl fxly o n.


4 iea t 25/vtt (Oco 2007): s o o oo o o l o o o

5 ewea (2009 - oco): w e t Fc, vol 2


27/6027

howvr, o on o org l o

nrgy lo, n no nrly n n oon or

ngng wn r o. i onry o no v

vorl gogrl onon or yro rrvor,

org no n rv olon o oor

ono or wn owr nron lvl ( o

20%). in ny , o org o ln vron

wn ln lvl nr nry nor ono.

grid infrastructure

t nr o wn owr r nvrl gnron or rqr nrrr

nvn n lnon o nw nology n

gr ngn on. hg lvl o wn nrgy n

y n on gr ly, ongon ngn,

rnon ny n rnon qy.

in ny r o worl, nl gr o gr

nrrr wll rqr o llow or lvl o gr

ngron roo n ror. sgnn rovn

n v y nwork oon n or o

r, n nr n rnon y n

onron o nw rnon ln wll lo n. a

, q n r ror or gr

or wn owr n o vlo n ln, vn

n r wr gr y l.

howvr, xnon o wn owr no only rvr.

exnon n rnorn r n o oo

wvr owr gnron nology on o

rly growng lry n. t iea y

2030, ovr 1.8 rllon usd wll v o nv nrnon n ron nwork n Oecd lon.

in rn on wn owr vng n

rlon o onvnonl or, wo nrrr

n lrgly vlo nr nonl vrlly ngr

onool w wr l o nn gr nwork

rovn rog n lv on

lry ll. b wl or lrl rk

lo o o oon n o onr, nro

oron onn o vng rnwl gnror n

owr rk ro rnory onnon rg

o onl o r onn owr y nn

l.

wind poers contribution to

system adequacy

t y r o wn nrgy xr ow

onvnonl owr gnron y n vo or

rl y wn nrgy. or low wn nrgy nron

lvl, y r wll ror lo o

vrg wn owr roon, w n on

y or on nvl (norlly 20-35% o

r y). W nrng nron lvl o wn

owr, rlv y r wll r, w n

nw wn ln on y w g wn owr

nron wll rl l onvnonl owr n r ln n y.

aggrg wn ln ovr lrgr gogrl r r

o k ll vng o r onron o

wn owr n owr y.

grid connection issues

a gr o ovr ll rl nl rlng o

onnon o, n oron n o, onry

lry rnon y. ty ly own rl w

n wy n w gnrng on onnng o

y or n orr o nn gr ly.

tnl rqrn wn gr o vry ro y o

y, yl rqrn or gnror norlly

onrn olrn, onrol o v n rv owr,

rov v n owr qly. s rqrn

or wn owr gnron r ngng nron

nr n wn owr ng or n orowr ln l, .. ng v onrol n

lvrng gr or rv.

in ron o nrng n ro nwork

oror, or xl o y onn o y

rng l vn, o rn wn rn gn

v n nlly rov. t jory o mW-z

rn ng nll oy r l o ng

o vr gr o rqrn, w vn r

nlng l-r-rog ly. t nl o

n kng owr y l wn ron

o. mo w og ow og

w g ow oo.



28/6028

t coco oo o o llo, o o o co, o l c, o ol c o locl colo ll. m o colo locl l o, oo co o o oc lo, o c o l ol c .

6. Wind pOWer and the envirOnment


29/6029

eol b

Co2

EMiSSionS

W ow , o- ow go

oog. l w o o

g g o o o o

og o w oo .

oo, w g o o o o

- go g og o g

g oo, q g

o q oo o w. b o, o o, g o

jo o o o.

t io p o c cg (ipcc) 4

a ro (2007) o o

g o - g. i o

w o o wo oq, go

o o o 2020. t

o o w g o go o w

o o og- o

ow o.

t ow o o o o o 40% o go

cO2

o, w o o

ow o g o og gow

go ow . to g o o

o go o w ow

wo q g o 25 o o o o o

o 17 o o o o .

aog o o o, gow g o o 1,000 GW

o 2020, og o 2,600 tW o

. t wo 1,500 o o o

cO2

.

air poLLuTion

W ow o o o q o

w . t oo o o o o

g o og o, o o

o o oo. t g oo o

- g o, og w o

oog o g; o o o

.

i c, w o o 80% o

o o- ow o, oo o o

Wo h Ogo w o

650,000 c o .

W g o o o w

o oo o o . d o g,

o o g -o o

j o o oq o -

o og w o go

o go.

aog o c go o, oo 5,000

c . c

o g . n 12% o c og

o g o o o .

oThEr bEnEFiTS

t a b co g

oo o W vg, t,

k, vg g

o o , g o o o

o o g c W.

sog o o g us

gowg o o- o o g. t

og o w w g w,

o oo o ww , o w

w .

t eo uo- ee 1)

oo oq o o o o w

w o eu, o

w g o o o

o o oo g o

o, g, o . t

o o o o. t eu

o o g ow go o 1.1-3.0 /

W o o 3.5-7.7 /W,

o o j 0.05-0.25 /W o w.t

o o o og o o o

o wo o, o g 30%,

o w o o.

W i n d p O W e r a n d t h e e n v i r O n m e n t

1 http://www.externe.ino/externpr.pd


30/6030

eol ic

t oo oo o w , o

, o , o o

o o oog w. mo o

g oo w o o,

ViSuaL iMpaCT

W g .

t o o o g w

wo . how o ,

w g g o o ,

o .

i oo o o g o, ow,

, o g ow o o o og, w .

n, o o w w ow

w o

o, o o .

O o w w ow

og.

W o og

o o gog o. co o

o o o g g o o

g o. t

o o og og o ow

ow w o o

wo.

a o o w g oo

g o o-

o w , g . i

a, o , g o aw

o oo, oo oog,

g , o, o o. i

i, i W eg aoo o

g og w o oo

- WW, lg G.

s o oo ow o o wo

w o o

og g o. O

, o so, ow o o o o

w . i o wo g w

o . O o,

q o o oo.

aog w g oj o g

o , o o o . g o

o o . t

eo W eg aoo

o w q o o 20% o eo

wo o w q

o.



31/6031

noiSE

co o o o , w

q. e og oo o

, w go o ow, o o

w o o oo g .

m g o 35 o 45 o 350

o , o o

go o o o.

t o o w

, o q go o

w , o o, o og oo

. mo g

o og o oog o

woog o o w o

.

p o , g w

o, o

. a w o w og

ow o o, o o

o oo.

to o w o

wo, o o o o o ,

w o . t w o

goo go o w .

birDS anD baTS

t o g og o

o o g. Go

g o go

, g o

.

aog o uk ro so o poo o

b, ,

o , g o o o

o o o - o o,

g o o b . co o

, gg o

oo w o o o g z o

, o 1).

aog o o w w o ,

o w ow o o

o o z. t g --

o u s, og o

us W s, (1 o

), g ( o 1 ), (100 o),

(60 o 80 ), w oo ow,

ow . b o w o w

o o o o

o oo- , o ow

w .


Source: AWEA

DECIBEL CHART

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Pneumatic DrillSterero MusicOfficeWind TurbineWhisper

Falling Leaves Bedroom Home Inside Car Industrial Noise Jet Airplane

1 Royal Society or the Protection o Birds (2005): Wind arms and birds


32/6032

a o w us

ow gw o

g o o o . t

o o gg . a w , o

o . i eo, o o

1,000 w go o n, s, ow

o o w 0.1 o 0.6 oo

.

W o o , o ,

g ao p s o

t o s, o o o

o o w g o

ow og o wo.

a g , o w

, o o , g , o o g g

oo. po o o o w

o go o, w g fo o

g og , o

g o g go. t o

g. mo w , w ow g

, o o o.

b o o o w

o o o o g

g. p-oo w oo

o oo . t

o o .

Fol l

As a result o a single oil shipping accident - the Exxon Valdez

oil spill in Alaskas Prince William Sound - more than 500,000

migratory birds were killed, about a thousand times the

estimated annual total in Caliornias wind power plants. A

study at a coal-fred power plant in Florida, which had oursmokestacks, recorded an estimated 3,000 bird deaths in a

single evening during the autumn migration period.

sOurce: uniOn O cOncerned scient ists /

lOrida OrnithOlOGical sOciety

l , g ,

o oog o oo w o o o

. d g o o w

, u s, ow

w o o o g o oo. a w o oog o-

West o oo o g

g o o-,

g o

o o o o w . t

gg w o o

g oo w .

moog o w us o

o gg

. t a W eg aoo ow

jo o w b coo io, us

W s no rw eg


Source: CanWEA

Number per 10,000 fatalities

CAUSES OF BIR D FATALITIES

710 Pesticides

850 Vehicles

50 Communication Towers


33/6033

loo o oo w oo o ow

. t o o g

goo g oo g go ,

g o o w w o

.

oFFShorE WinD

a o , oo w o o

o o o

w o. no go

oj o o q

q o o

o. t o

oj o w o eu w w

oo go og w

oo.

W o o ,

o. sq oog

o o g w

o w .

t oog go o o ,

o oo o

g o .

d o 17 ow oo

w , o, g o

wo g g o o

. a o o

oog og o ho r

(160 mW) n (165 mW) w wo

o, og w d eg ao

o n ag, o ,

g oo, g w o ow o ,

t oog ow o o

oo, o o w ,

o o g o o.

o o

oo o w oo,

g o go.

aog o oo qg o

n w , ow og o o

235,000 g o go,

oo w j 0.02%. r og

ow fo o gg o fw o o o o o 72 .

ConCLuSion

W g g go

oog, , o , o o-

. t w o o

o w g o o

o, , o og

, g o w

g o g o w g o .



34/6034

7. the G lObal Wind enerGy Out lOOk

scenariOs


35/6035

the initiaL seCtiOns o o

o w g o o wo

g o o, w

go g go w o

o o o o o o. t Go

W eg Ooo o ow

o o w ow o 2020, oo

o ow 2050, g o g o o

w w f w g

o.

t o ooo w

Go W eg co (GWec), Gio G ao c (dlr).

pojo o o w g o

o o g o go g

w o 2050 o dlr o G

eo rw eg co (erec).

sco

rEFErEnCE SCEnario

t o o o gow o

w g o wo. t o o

rc o o ojo 2007

Wo eg Ooo o io eg ag

(iea). t o o o g o

, o og

g o, o o

o-o g o

og oo. t iea g o go o o

2030, o o, dlr oo o o gow o w

ow o 2050.

MoDEraTE SCEnario

t mo o o o o

o o w g

o g g o wo. i o

g o o w

o w g . moo,

o o o

o oo o o o

g goo, w o unccc

cOp-15 cog, d, d 2009.

u o 2012 g o o o

g o o. t

o w g ow

gow o wow o

o o o w o. a 2012

o o o o .

aDVanCED SCEnario

t o o o, ac o o w o gow

w g o. t o

o oo o o w g, og

o oo, ,

o w o o.

W g, o 2012 o o

, o g o ow w w

g o o w g o

o og g o

w o g go g.

EnErGY DEManD proJECTionS

t o o go w g

g wo ojo o gow o

, o r d pojo

o eg e d pojo.

rEFErEnCE DEManD proJECTion

t o o o wo go

ojo g o o iea 2007 Wo

eg Ooo, g o o oo

Gdp gow, o ow o 2050. i o

o o w o o

-2007, o o o o o

.

t iea o o w go-

o, wo g w o.

Go wo o o o o

15,000 tW 2005 o o 29,000 tW

2030.

t h e G l O b a l W i n d e n e r G y O u t l O O k s c e n a r i O s


36/6036

EnErGY EFFiCiEnCY DEManD proJECTion

t iea o o g g

g oo o o o o

g g o dlr eo

o 1). t o o-

o oo o g ,

o oog, gg

oog o

oo oo o g .

i , o o, o o o o

, o g g q o o o , w

g o o .

i o o f o, w o

o e efcc ojco o

, w o g o 80% o

o.

t o go g

r ojo o 23,937 tW

2030, w 18% ow. b 2050, 28% o go

o o 12,000 tW o

eg e ojo.

m ao

p

GroWTh raTES

m gow o o

o o g oo o o o w . a gow o

o 20% , g a

o o o, g o w

q. t w

g gow ,

ow. i o 2007, g

go

25%; o g o o 2000-2007, w o

27%, w w gow 2007,

w w 2008.

i o o o w gow

o g g o g o

o, o w ow g

40 g gow

w o g g o

gw.

TurbinE CapaCiTY

i w gowg

o

o w og ow. t

g o w go 2007

w 1.49 mW. a g o

ow 6 mW .

W o o g z

w g o o g o 2 mW 2013

o. i o g w o

o g , qg w o

.

i o w oo

o 20 , w w o .

t owg o o o

o o o.

CapaCiTY FaCTor

c o o g o

oo w

o o o . t -

o w o g , o

o o

o oo. o , 1 mW

og 25% o w 2,190 mW o o .

o g o o o 25%,

o o o w

oog g o w w

. c o o g , w

w og o o. t gowg z o

oo w , eo, w o

o o g.

t o oj g go o

w o 28% 2012 30% 2036.


1 www.energyblueprint.ino


37/6037

CapiTaL CoSTS anD proGrESS raTioS

t o o og w

o 20 g g

o o - w o w

go, g

q o, oo

oo oo o .

t g oo o g o

o o 20 % o

o o. a 20 % q o

og o o 0.80.

i o o o o o,

o o , .. o

gw . t g z

o o o o.

t og o 0.90

2015, g g o 2016 ow. bo

2031, w oo o o

o o go g o

, o 0.98.

t o o g o,

, g o o

g o oo,

o g o o. n

o o g oo z.

co o o, w ,

2006, o w w

. t gg o g w

og o

oo. e o w wo

( ow, go

oo), o ( go) o (

oo ow). Go o

o o ag 2008, w o

q . i o,

g g o o o -

g og w .

s og

o go g o g .

t og g oo

g w oo

og o w g , o c. so o oo

w 2010.

e o, o o w go

g o, og g

oo , oo

g o.

c o ow o

g o 1,300 2007, g o 1,450 2009. t

o o 2010 ow o o

1,150. o 2020 o g o o

o o 1,050. a g g 2007 .



38/6038


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

Reference Moderate Advanced[ MW ]

GLOBAL CUMMULATIVE NEW WIND CAPACITY

GLobaL CuMuLaTiVE CapaCiTY [MW] anD ELECTriCiTY GEnEraTion [TW]

Ye 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

refeece [mW] 93,864 109,739 128,046 139,000 232,956 352,300 496,730

[tW] 206 240 280 304 571 864 1,218

Mdete [mW] 93,864 117,735 143,376 172,280 378,954 709,332 1,420,436

[tW] 206 258 314 377 929 1,740 3,484

advced [mW] 93,864 119,837 149,841 186,309 485,834 1,080,886 2,375,374

[tW] 206 262 328 408 1,192 2,651 5,939

SuMMarY oF GLobaL WinD EnErGY ouTLooK SCEnario For 2020

Go

so

c

w ow (GW)

e

o (tW)

pg o wo

(eg e)

a

[GW]

a

( )

Jo [o] a cO

g(o o)

r 352 864 4.1% 24 32.14 0.54 518

mo 709 1,740 8.2% 82 89.39 1.30 1,044

a 1,081 2,651 12.6% 143 149.35 2.21 1,591

Jh

SuMMarY oF GLobaL WinD EnErGY ouTLooK SCEnario For 2050

Goso

cw ow

(GW)

eo (tW)

pg owo

(eg e)

a [GW]

a

( )

Jo [o] a cOg

(o o)

r 679 1,783 5.8% 36.6 47.10 0.74 1,070

mo 1,834 4,818 15.6% 100 104.36 1.71 2,891

a 3,498 9,088 29.5% 165 168.14 2.98 5,453


39/6039


sco rl

a o Go W eg Ooo o

ow g o oo o o go

w g . t o o o

oo o o gow o

w ow .

rEFErEnCE SCEnario

t rc co, w o i-

o eg ag Wo eg Ooo 2007, o

w gow o 27% o 2008, o10% 2010, o 4% 2030. b 2035,

gow 1%.

a , o o o

, go wo

139 Ggw (GW), og 304 tW ,

og 1.7% o wo .

b 2020, go wo 352 GW, gowg o

o 500 GW 2030, w o

o 30 GW. b 2050, o o 680 GW o w g-

o wo wo.

t o o w g go

og o w

ojo . ao 864 tW o 2020

wo o o 3.6-4.1% o wo

oo, g o o g o. b 2030, oo o 1,218 tW

o 4.2-5.1% o go . e 2050,

o o w wo o g 4.2-5.8%

go.

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0 [ % ]

2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION:EN ER G Y EFFIC IEN CY

ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION:R EFER EN CE

Reference wind market growth

Moderate wind market growth

Advanced wind market growth

Reference wind market growth

Moderate wind market growth

Advanced wind market growth

WIND POWER PENETRATION OF WORLDS ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

3 DiFFErEnT WinD MarKET DEVELopMEnT SCEnarioS - WiTh DiFFErEnT WorLD ELECTriCiTY DEManD DEVELopMEnTS

2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

reerence Wind market GrOWth iea prOJectiOn

W ow o o wo % r (iea d pojo) % 1.4 1.7 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.2

W ow o o wo % eg e % 1.4 1.7 4.1 5.1 5.8 5.8

mOderate Wind market GrOWth

W ow o o wo % r % 1.4 2.1 7.3 11.9 12.5 11.2

W ow o o wo % eg e % 1.4 2.1 8.2 14.6 16.4 15.6

advanced Wind market GrOWth

W ow o o wo % r % 1.4 2.3 11.2 19.7 23.1 21.2

W ow o o wo % eg e % 1.4 2.3 12.6 24.0 30.3 29.5


40/6040

MoDEraTE SCEnario

u mo w g o gow

o g r

o. t gow

27% o 2008, o 19% 2010, o o

g o 11% 2020 3% 2030 1%

2040.

t o , go w

ow o 172 GW, w

o o 28.9 GW. b 2020,

wo gow o 81.5 GW, gow ow wo o o

700 GW. b 2030 o o o 1,420 GW wo

, w o go o 84 GW. b

2050, wo wo o w ow

o o 1,800 GW, w g o o

100 GW.

i o g , wo o

o 1,700 tW o w g 2020,

3,500 tW 2030 4,800 tW 2050. dg o

o, wo 7.3-8.2% o

go 2020, 11.9-14.6% 2030

11.2-15.6% 2050.

aDVanCED SCEnario

u ac w g o, o

o o go w ow -

g. t gow 27% 2008, o

22% 2010, o 12% 2020 5% 2030.

t, gow w o o 1% .

t o , go

wo 186 GW, w o o o

36.5 GW. b 2020, go wo o 1,000 GW,

w o o o 142 GW, 2030, o

w go wo o 2,400 GW. t

wo o 165 GW. b

2050, wo o f o w wo

o 3,500 GW.

i o g , wo o

2,600 tW o w g 2020, 5,700 tW

2030 o 9,000 tW 2050. ag g o

, w ow wo o

11.2 12.6% o go 2020, 19.7-

24.0% 2030 21.2-29.5% 2050.

rEGionaL brEaKDoWn

a o o w ow o ow go

o wo o go iea. o

o o , go eo,

to eoo, no a, l a,

c, i, p (g a, so ko

J), dog a ( o a), m e a.


rEGionaL brEaK DoWn: rEFErEnCE SCEnario [GW]

EuropeTransitionEconomies

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

Dev. Asia(excl. S. Korea)

India

China

Middle EastAfrica OECD Pacific (incl. South Korea)

3%

3%

1%1%

8%

6%

2%

1%

26%

2%

50%

46%

1%1%10%

5%

3%2%

27%

2%

202

0

2030

2 0 2 0

eo 176 GW

to eoo 7 GW

no a 92 GW

l a 5 GW

d. a (. s. ko) 7 GW

i 20 GWc 27 GW

m e 2 GW

a 4 GW

Oecd p (. so ko) 12 GW

2 0 3 0

eurOpe 227 GW

to eoo 11 GW

no a 132 GW

l a 8 GW

d. a (. s. ko) 16 GW

i 27 GW

c 49 GW

m e 4 GW

a 7 GW



41/6041

t ow o wo go iea

ogog o Wo eg Ooo o. i

w o o oo w o

ojo iea o o o-

go g . a o o o

o go ow o . 48.

t o w ow o

go o wo 2020 2030 ow o . 48

49. t ow rc sco, eo

wo o o o wo . b 2030

eo wo o 46% o go w ow ,

oow no a w 27%. t g gowo c w 10%.

t wo o o o g og

gow go o eo. u mo

o, eo w o 23% 2030, w

no a og o 27% jo

o c (14%), i (10%) dog a

(10%). l a (7%) p go (5%) w

o o ,

oo o a m e w gg

(o 1% ).

t a o og gow o

c, w wo o wo

g o 19% 2030. t no a wo o o 22% o go w ow


rEGionaL brEaK DoWn: MoDEraTE SCEnario [GW]

Europe

TransitionEconomies

North AmericaLatin America

Dev. Asia(excl. S. Korea)

India

China

Middle East

Africa

OECD Pacific (incl. South Korea) 4%

5%

1%1%

14%

10%

6%

7% 31%

1%

25%

23%1%

1%

14%

10%

10%

7%

27%

2%

202

0

2030

2 0 2 0

eo 182 GW

to eoo 9 GW

no a 214 GW

l a 50 GW

d. a (. s. ko) 40 GW

i 69 GWc 101 GW

m e 8 GW

a 10 GW


2 0 3 0

eurOpe 306 GW

to eoo 34 GW

no a 366 GW

l a 103 GW

d. a (. s. ko) 140 GW

i 142 GW

c 201 GW

m e 20 GW

a 21 GW


rEGionaL brEaK DoWn: aDVanCED SCEnario [GW]

Europe

TransitionEconomies

Latin AmericaDev. Asia (excl. S. Korea)

India

China

Middle EastAfrica

OECD Pacific (incl. South Korea) 7%

9%

2%2%

18%

13%

6%9%

NorthAmerica

23%

1%

19%

15%2%

3%

19%

10%

9% 8%

22%

3%

202

0

2030

2 0 2 0

eo 213 GW

to eoo 10 GW

no a 243 GW

l a 100 GW

d. a (. s. ko) 61 GW

i 138 GWc 201 GW

m e 25 GW

a 17 GW


2 0 3 0

eurOpe 353 GW

to eoo 75 GW

no a 520 GW

l a 201 GW

d. a (. s. ko) 211 GW

i 235 GW

c 451 GW

m e 63 GW

a 52 GW

Oecd p (. so ko) 215 G W


42/6042


Annual Installation [ GW ]Reference

Moderate

Advanced

Cost / kWReference

Moderate

Advanced

COSTS AND CAPACITIES

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

20082007 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

inVESTMEnT anD EMpLoYMEnT

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

reerence

a io [mW] 19,865 18,016 18,034 18,307 20,887 24,180 30,013

co / W 1,300 1,350 1,450 1,438 1,376 1,329 1,301

i o / 25,824,500 25,873,673 25,910,012 26,545,447 28,736,673 32,135,267 39,058,575

eo Jo- 329,232 387,368 418,625 424,648 479,888 535,074 634,114

mOderate

a io [mW] 19,865 23,871 25,641 28,904 54,023 81,546 84,465

co / W 1,300 1,350 1,450 1,392 1,170 1,096 1,050

i o / 25,824,500 32,225,716 37,179,828 40,220,810 63,182,874 89,390,391 88,658,740

eo Jo- 329,232 397,269 432,363 462,023 882,520 1,296,306 1,486,589

advanced

a io [mW] 19,865 25,509 30,005 36,468 84,160 142,674 165,000

co / W 1,300 1,350 1,450 1,379 1,112 1,047 1,026

i o / 25,824,500 34,437,535 43,506,723 50,304,975 93,546,253 149,352,592 169,297,423

eo Jo- 329,232 422,545 499,967 572,596 1,340,016 2,214,699 2,810,395


43/6043

, w eo wo o 15%,

oow i (10%), dog a (9%), p

go (9%) l a (8%). a m

e wo g o o o

(2% ).

i o g o

w o o o o

. t o 20 g o w

. t w o

o o o

og o. t

g ooo o o w o o ow . t w w

o o o o , g

o o. a

oo w o ow o g o

go .

Co b

Gg o o w ow

w q o o o

40 . a g oo o

w w o o go

o jo o.

inVESTMEnT

t o o o o w g

o o o. t

o o o, o ,

g g o ow o g o .

t o go q

w g g o

o . t o

o o g g o ow

o , o.

i r o o go -

w ow q o 25.8 o

2007 o 26.5 o 2010, o 39 2030

47 2050 [ g 2007 ].

i mo o o go -

w ow 40.2 o

2010, o 89.4 2030 104.4

2050.

i a o o go -

50.3 o 2010, o 149.4

2020 169.3 2030. a g

o o o owg o .

aog g g, o

o o o o go

ow . dg 1990, o , - ow o w g o 158-186 -

o .

GEnEraTion CoSTS

vo o o o w

g go o o w ow. t o

o o o o w (

o), o o ( ), w o-

o , o

g. O o o oo

(O&m) o o .

t o o g W o o

og g

O&m o o o w , g

oo. t o o

go g o o

o , w o 20 .

i o w g o

oo w o g o, w O&m o w o ow gg o

oo o o

.

tg o o o, o o gg

o w g g o o-

4-6 /W g w o

o 6-9 /W w ow g

w 1).

how, o 15 o w

og o q

g, g . o,



44/6044

o oo o w

o o w , o.

t o o o o o o-

o o oo. i g g

w g o w o-

o o o oo g

o o, g, o . t

o o o o, w o f

o o o o. O

oo o o ow oo

. t eo coo ee oj 2)

o o g ow go

o 1.1-3.0 /W o o

3.5-7.7 /W, o o j 0.05-0.25 /W

o w.

O o o , o o, o oo w go g go/

o o eo eo tg

s (ets).

o, o o o o o

o o oo oog. s w

g o o q , o

o w o gg

oog g, o o. a gg ooo

og o o w g w

o g g o g o

o o o o . i g o

o g o, o

oo.

i o, o o o o o o-

o ow oo o o o

o o oo. t o

o o w g. i 2007, o , 3.9

wo o o w o eo og o

w g, g o o 24

2030 3).

EMpLoYMEnT

t o o o o o

wg og o o . hg o-

o o o o o

o wo. a oog w

o o o o o o oo o, o

og o o-g o

g oo.

a o o o o w

ow o G, d, s

n. t o o

o gw o w ,

o w g w o o 15 jo


1 For Europe, see European Wind Energy Association (2009 - orthcoming): Wind Energy TheFacts; or China, see GWEC/CREIA/CWEA (2006): A study on the Pricing Policy o Wind Powerin China

2 http://www.externe.ino/externpr.pd3 EWEA (2008): Pure Power Wind Energy Scenarios up to 2030


45/6045

( ) og , oo , w

o, o o. a

oo o o, w ,

g o 11 jo 2030. i o, o g

oo wo w wo 0.33 jo o gw o

.

u o, o 329,000 o wo

o w g o 2007. u

r o, g wo o 408,500

jo o 535,000 2020. i

mo o, o 462,000 o wo

o o 2010, o 1.3 o

2020. t a o wo o

o 572,500 2010 o o 2.2 o jo

w g 2020.

Reference

Moderate

Advanced

Mio t CO

CUMULATIVE CO REDUCTION

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

ANNUAL CO REDUCTION

Reference

Moderate

Advanced

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2010 2030202520202015200920082007

Mio t CO

Co EMiSSionS

reerence

y acO o

[mo cO]

ccO o

[mo. cO]

2007 123 406

2008 144 550

2009 168 718

2010 183 901

2015 343 2,245

2020 518 4,459

2025 615 7,3332030 731 10,776

2035 799 14,632

2040 945 19,118

2045 1,006 24,021

2050 1,070 29,247

mOderate

y acO o

[mo cO]

ccO o

[mo. cO]

2007 123 406

2008 155 561

2009 188 749

2010 226 975

2015 558 3,048

2020 1,044 7,216

2025 1,624 14,1682030 2,090 23,752

2035 2,353 35,068

2040 2,674 48,163

2045 2,789 61,886

2050 2,891 76,141

advanced

y acO o

[mo cO]

ccO o

[mo. cO]

2007 123 406

2008 157 563

2009 197 760

2010 245 1,005

2015 715 3,513

2020 1,591 9,494

2025 2,397 19,616

2030 3,236 31,294

2035 4,263 54,709

2040 4,942 78,789

2045 5,178 104,197

2050 5,453 130,887



46/6046

Carbon DioxiDE SaVinGS

a o o o o g o

go o o o o

o w ow go. co o

g g o o g go

, g o o oq o go

g.

a , o w oog

goo g . t cO2

o o

, o g o g 20

o w

o o o oo.

t o o o o o o

o w o , o oo o ,

go o w ow w .co Wo eg co ow g o

o o o o o . O

o o g w o o

jo o go 20 w

o o g o o o o

o g o 600 o GW g

o o o o o o o

w go.

t o j o

50% o w go

2020 w Oecd go (no a,

eo p). t o o

g o o o g. i o go cO2

o w g o w o o

g ow o.

tg o o o,

g cO2

w g r o

wo 183 o o 2010, g o

518 o o 2020 731 o o 2030.

u o, cO2

g o w wo

gg, o w 18,708 o o o cO2

iea go ow o w

2030.

u mo o, w g wo 226

o o o cO2

2010, 1,044 o o o

cO2

2020, g o 2,090 o o 2030.

t g 2020 wo o o

7,216 o o o cO2

2003, o wo

o o o 2050, wo o o j o

76,000 o o o cO2.

u a o, cO2

g w

ow wo o 245 o o 2010,

1,591 o o 2020, 3,236 o o

2030. bw 2003 2020, o 9,494 o o o

cO2

wo w g o. t wo

o o 130,000 o o o wo

o o.

rc bco

ThE GErMan aEroSpaCE CEnTrE

t G ao c (dlr) g g-

g ogo G. aog

o o o ow o oog,

o o ow g ,

o go, o

o o g g ow

.

t i o t to dlr (dlr-itt)

o w g

oog o o ow o

g oo o. Wog o-oo

w o dlr , ,



47/6047

o o og o o g

oog o g oo. t o

o o , o o oo

oo o w g oo o

oo . s oog

o o o g o

o g o.

W dlr-itt, s a toog

a do og

o w g oog. i

o o-oo

o , g o oo g o oo o

o w oog, g o

o.

SCEnario baCKGrounD

dlr w oo eo rw eg

co G io o o o

lol l o 2050 4). t

, 2007 g ,

o g o w o g

ow . p o

o o w g o; og w

o w g o go

ojo o w ow o wo, o

o Go W eg Ooo o.

t l co o o, w

o o ojo

io eg ag, g

mesap/pn o o o dlr og 10 wo go (eg [r]oo: a

go g ooo), Oo 2008 o

G io eo rw

eg co (erec). t o o

ooo w eo o o o o

o o g .

EnErGY EFFiCiEnCY STuDY 5)

t o eo w o o ow g

o o o 2003 o 2050 o o

o iea go Wo eg

Ooo o . eg w o

. t o w w o

o w , o o o,

g oo .

t eo g o o o

o oo o g o,

o o w oog

, g oo oo

. t wow g

35% 2050 oo o

o. eg g q o

o. t o o g g oo o o o g g

o o o g g.

W eo o wo g

o, o o o o

o.


4 Krewitt W, Simon S, Graus W, Teske S, Zervos A, Schaeer O, The 2 degrees C scenario -A sustainable world energy perspective; Energy Policy, Vol.35, No.10, 4969-4980, 2007

5 www.energyblueprint.ino


48/6048

norTh aMEriCa

tOtal capacity in mW

2007 2010 2020 2030refeece sce 18,664 28,000 92,000 132,000

Mdete sce 18,664 41,195 214,371 366,136

advced sce 18,664 41,195 252,861 519,747

LaTin aMEriCa


2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 537 2,000 5,000 8,000

Mdete sce 537 2,496 50,179 103,140

advced sce 537 2,496 100,081 201,080

aFriCa


2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 454 1,000 4,000 7,000

Mdete sce 454 785 10,067 20,692

advced sce 454 887 17,606 52,032

EuropE


2007 2010 2020 2030refeece sce 57,136 77,000 176,300 226,730

Mdete sce 57,136 89,227 182,464 306,491

advced sce 57,136 89,132 212,632 353,015

OeCd eo: a, bg, cz r, d, , ,G, G, hg, i, i, i, log, n,now, po, pog, so r, s, sw, swz, t,u kgo

OeCd no ac: c, mo, u s

OeCd pcfc: a, J, ko (so), nw Z

to ecoo: a, a, azj, b, bo-hzgo,bg, co, eo, s mogo, o r omo, Gog, kz, kgz, l, l, moo, ro,r, so, tj, t, u, uz, c 1), m 1)

i

O lo a: ag, bg, b, b, co,

c t, j, po, io, k, do por o ko, lo, mo, m, m, mogo, m, n,nw co, p, p nw G, p, so, sgo,sooo i, s l, t, v, v

L ac: ag b, ag, b, bo, bz,b, bo, bz, c, coo, co r, c, do, dor, eo, e so, G, G, Go, G,G, h, ho, J, mq, n a, ng,p, pg, p, s. k-n-ag, s l, s. v G, s, t togo, ug, vz

ac: ag, ago, b, bow, b o, b, coo, cv, c a r, c, cooo, cogo, do r ocogo, co io, djo, eg, eqo G, e, eo, Go,G, G, G, G-b, k, loo, l, l, mg,mw, m, m, m, mooo, mozq, n, ng,ng, ro, rw, so to p, sg, s, s lo,so, so a, s, swz, u r o tz, togo, t,ug, Z, Zw

ml e: b, i, iq, i, Jo, kw, lo, O, Q, sa, s, u a e, y

C: po r o c g hog kog

DEFiniTionS oF rEGionS in aCCorDanCE WiTh iEa CLaSSiFiCaTion

1 Cyprus and Malta are allocated to the Transition Economies or statistical reasons


49/6049

MiDDLE EaST


2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 84 1,000 2,000 4,000

Mdete sce 84 577 8,150 20,136

advced sce 84 413 25,398 62,777

inDia

tOtal capacity in m W

2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 7,845 12,000 20,000 27,000

Mdete sce 7,845 19,683 69,203 142,245

advced sce 7,845 20,571 137,636 235,075

TranSiTion EConoMiES


2007 2010 2020 2030refeece sce 204 2,000 7,000 11,000

Mdete sce 204 449 9,183 33,548

advced sce 204 449 10,411 75,231

China


2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 5,906 9,000 27,000 49,000

Mdete sce 5,906 17,507 100,724 200,531

advced sce 5,906 19,613 200,880 450,582

DEVELopinG aSia


2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 312 2,000 7,000 16,000

Mdete sce 312 1,670 40,274 140,897

advced sce 312 1,817 60,735 210,808

oECD paCiFiC


2007 2010 2020 2030

refeece sce 2,887 5,000 12,000 16,000

Mdete sce 2,887 3,688 30,018 70,698

advced sce 2,887 3,739 75,380 215,362


50/60


51/6051

t koo poocol

t koo pooo w g d o 1997

pooo o u no wo coo o

c cg o 1992(unccc). t koo pooo

g g g o o (a 1

o) o o o go g

ggg o 5.2% g 1990 o

o 2008-2012. t o ow

o o. t pooo o o

2005, o .

i ogo o z o g o o o o go

g o, o og o o

oo o o o o-

oj, c, i o og o

o o q, g o o o-

. how, w g

oo o o o.

t o oj o o g o

o o go g oo

o wo go

oog w .

no o o ogo koo

pooo g o 8% o eo uo o 7% o

u s, 6% o J, 0% o r

o 8% o a 10% o i. t

g o o g.

a o m 2008, 182 ooo. O

, 38 z o ( eu

ow g) q o o o o o . 145 og

o ooo, g bz, c

i, o o ogo. t u

s o z o o o

pooo, kz o o go o

o g o , og kz

go g o o .

FLExibLE MEChaniSMS

s go g w- ogo

o, , o o where

o , o go o

o. a koo pooo og

o, ogg o o--

o a i o o o o,

o og wo o o o w

g o o o- o.

i o o o

w w oo

w o . t Jo io (Ji),

c do m (cdm) eo

tg.

eo t

u io eo tg oo, a io o ag ao u

(aau) og . t o o o

o o o o g. t

o g o -

o o o.

to o ow ow

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a i p wo w o aau,

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u Jo io, a i o

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o o g. mo Ji oj o

o- oo o o oo, r u. mo o

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o o eo ro u (eru), w o eru

g o o o o o cO2

q. t

eru o o o o o oo o g

o , w o o o

o og a i .

p O l i c y m e a s u r e s t O c O m b a t c l i m a t e c h a n G e


52/6052

eru w o w o Jo io oj

o o o ...o o

wo ow o ( o- o-

q), w oj o

wo o w

o eru . moo, a i o o

jo o o g o

o o o.

how, o w o

, g g .

Cl dlo mc

t c do m ow a i o

g o o o o

oj og (o-a i) o. i

g, og o w o o

oog o o o oo

. t o cdmoj ow o o (cer).

t oj o q o o-

.

a w o oj

cdm, g o og w g, g

, wg, g g,

g o o w, oo o

o oog o o

g, g hc n2O.

c o o cdm . i 2007

o o o 62%.

how, cdm oj g 45 o

unccc o o ow g

o fow o o o wo, o o o i

bz, o o a, e eo c a.

i 2007, cdm o o o wo

12 o 1) , o o eu,

eo go J .

t g o cdm oj o g

o 1-2 o o cdm

w o 4,000 oj o Oo

2008. mo 400 oj cer o ,

o wo o o cer o o g

oj. rw g oj ow o

o, goo cdm o o

z o g oo ow o. t

o q -g o o o oj wo

o wo o cer.


1 Co 2008 po-koo o, po Co al ro, mc 2008


53/6053

Carbon aS a CoMMoDiTY

t koo pooo o o g g

o o gow

o o o o pooo

2005. W o, o

o o o og o

o o o o

Wo b, og gow

wo , g o 40 o 2007. t

o o o o o 1.6 mcO2

2006 o 2.7 m 2007 2).

W o o o

w o oj -

, o o eu eo

tg s (ets) cdm.

t eu o g o o g

o , w o o 1.6 mcO2

o 28 o 2007 3) . t w og o

o o o o o . t

eu ets ow o o 60% o go

o 70% o . t cdm

o 947 m wo 12

2007, g 35% o 29% o

. t Ji , w , o

o o 2007, og o o

38 mcO2

o g o 326 o.

how, o o

gow g. m po co o

56% gow 2008 ( Figure 1), g

o o o 4 o o o o, w o

o 60 o. c ets o o

25/o, cdm g w 9 17/o,

g o o oj g o o-

.

pog o o g og, o

ow oo o g , og

ooo w o, o

g oo o wo-w. i o, , o o o o o

f goo o oo-w

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o o. Go gog

o-2012 g o o g

o g cdm,

o go o .

Figure 2 ow o o o o

o o 2020, o po

co o 2007.


2,3 Co 2008 po-koo o

Annual volume[ Gt ]

Other

JI

CDM total

EU ETS total

FIGURE 1 : ANNUAL CONTRACT VOLUMES 20052008

0

104%

64%

56%

1

2

3

4

5

2005 2006 2007 2008(forecast)

Source: Point Carbon

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Price in (average =38)

Price in (average =38)

0-10 01-20 20-30 30-50 50-100 above 100

Source: Point Carbon

Currency of choice. N=2591 (2157 responses in EUR; 967 in USD)

FIGURE 2: WHAT WILL BE THE COST OF CARBON IN 2020?


54/6054

w Cdm ojc

t c do m o o

o o w g go. a o Oo 2008,

o o 538 w g oj w cdm ,

og o 20,434 mW. t

14% o o o oj o o

. ao 7 o cer o

w oj, w go o o o

213 o o o o

2012 o oj .

t jo o oj o c i.i c, 90% o w g oj o cdm

go, ow 254 oj cdm

, g o 13 GW o . i

231 oj , og o 4 GW.

t o o w cdm-o w

oj f o ,

o oo o o o

w ow og wo, o

. i o o i c o

o og w g o o

o o o o ow

o.

t g o o o jo o

jo o o o w ow oj

cdm o . how,

o o w go -o o o o g

o w w o o

- o o o g o o w

ow oo o . t -

o oo-w o

o o.


WinD CDM proJECTS (aS oF 1 oCTobEr 2008)

Cty pjects MW

i 231 4,319

c 254 13,072

mo 11 1,222

so ko 11 320

bz 7 436

do r 3 173

p 2 73

mooo 2 70

c 3 188

eg 2 200

p 1 81mogo 1 50

J 1 21

co r 2 69

coo 1 20

i 0 0

ag 1 11

c 1 19

ng 2 60

v 1 30

eo 1 2

Ttl 538 20,434

Source: http://www.cdmpipeline.org/cdm-projects-type.htm


55/6055

w Ji ojc

t 12 w g oj Ji ,

og o 684 mW. t gg o

(300 mW) o u. O oj

bg, po, l eo. W Ji

o, o o

g o r u o

o g w g o.

t o o-2012

ngoo ow g w o go-

g o o o o koo pooo

2012. t og oo o

o a ro o igo p o

c cg, w ow g

og o og.

i o, o ,

o o b go o Wo b c

eoo s no s, gg o

oo o o o w g

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go o go g o.

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o g go oo, 11 co

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o o ow ow o o o,

w gg o o o

g coo o o o

wo g o o ogo. t usgo o ,

o o . t jo

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o goo.

i d 2007, cOp 13 b, g

o g goo o o

o cOp 15, o

d 2009 cog. o w o,

oo o goo o o

o: go o o o g,

g ogog o o, oog

g wo o

.

Theneedforstrongcommitments

rgoo, g-g o o g o

o w o oo g go o

o g wo o og ow

g . t g o g

o o g koo pooo

o - o o 25-40% ow 1990

2020 - goo g o. t wo o

o o o g, ow, o

w eo uo o oj o

g go o 2c

o - .

Carbonprices

i o o g oo go, og

o o g o o

o o gg o . t g

o o o o w o ow

g go o , w o o

q o o o

o. W eu ets c do-

m wo jo g o

, gowg oo, o o go

o g o o. ag

oj g o

, oj,

go g g

g go oo o g

o 2050, o o

o .



56/6056

Technologytransfer

O o g o o unccc

w w g 1992 w o

o o o o o

o - oog o og

o. o o o oo o

o .

aog o o - oog

o w , o

o w go o

g oj o g. i

w , o o o

un o j g .

Expandedcarbonmarkets

i o oj o go, o

, o o . oo, u s jo

go o , w w g g

go o us w o

wo jo o go .

so, o a b o

o o o w

jo Oecd o wo oo gow

o o Oecd o eu g o

. t, oo o

o og o o cdm

o 2012,

Asectoralapproachforthepowersector

to o o-g

oog o ow go o, GWec

o og oo o o e

so eo ro m. t

o oo o g

o o o

o o g o, qg

o o o o

g o o g o

o. ro o ow wo

g o o o

o , og wo o

o w o g g.

t g o o oj-

cdm wo g o. a w og o g

o o oo o g

o o g o, wo z

g w o o g

oog wo g o go og o

o o oj--oj . i wo o goo

g o w o o o-a i

o o o oo w

g o o w.



57/60

annex


58/60


59/6059

a n n E x

reerence

Ye

cO2

o[

mo cO2] Jo pog o [%] c [/mW] i []

Wo tW - r

Wo tW - e

2007 406 329,232 90 1,300 25,824,500

2008 550 397,269 90 1,350 25,873,673

2009 718 431,290 90 1,450 25,910,012

2010 901 417,923 90 1,438 26,545,447 17,890 17,686

2015 2,245 479,887 92 1,376 28,736,673

2020 4,459 535,074 92 1,329 32,135,267 23,697 21,095

2025 7,333 522,711 94 1,315 31,960,752

2030 10,776 634,114 94 1,301 39,058,575 29,254 23,937

2035 14,632 611,062 96 1,297 39,113,402

2040 19,118 713,769 96 1,292 46,748,706 35,698 27,166

2045 24,021 728,531 98 1,290 46,924,011

2050 29,247 744,123 98 1,288 47,099,974 42,938 30,814

mOderate

Ye

cO2

o[

mo cO2] Jo pog o [%] c [/mW] i [t]

Wo tW - r

Wo tW - e

2007 406 329,232 90 1,300 25,824,500

2008 561 397,269 90 1,350 32,225,716

2009 749 432,363 90 1,450 37,179,828

2010 975 462,023 90 1,392 40,220,810 17,890 17,686

2015 3,048 882,520 90 1,170 63,182,874

2020 7,216 1,296,306 92 1,096 89,390,391 23,697 21,095

2025 14,168 1,466,869 94 1,066 97,666,627

2030 23,752 1,486,589 94 1,050 88,658,740 29,254 23,937

2035 35,068 1,418,326 96 1,045 84,125,291

2040 48,163 1,637,816 96 1,042 101,659,168 35,698 27,166

2045 61,886 1,693,206 98 1,041 104,522,858

2050 76,141 1,713,391 98 1,041 104,365,717 42,938 30,814

advanced

Ye

cO2

o[

mo cO2] Jo pog o [%] c [/mW] i [t]

Wo tW - r

Wo tW - e

2007 406 329,232 90% 1,300 25,824,500

2008 563 422,545 90% 1,350 34,437,535

2009 760 499,967 90% 1,450 43,506,723

2010 1,005 572,596 90% 1,379 50,304,975 17,890 17,686

2015 3,513 1,340,016 90% 1,112 93,546,2532020 9,494 2,214,699 94% 1,047 149,352,592 23,697 21,095

2025 19,616 2,428,006 94% 1,036 158,727,421

2030 31,294 2,771,000 98% 1,026 169,297,423 29,254 23,937

2035 54,709 2,800,931 98% 1,022 168,705,910

2040 78,789 2,868,319 98% 1,021 168,481,382 35,698 27,166

2045 104,197 2,919,146 98% 1,020 168,321,894

2050 130,887 2,979,981 98% 1,019 168,140,446 42,938 30,814


60/60

abouT GWEC

GLobaL rEprESEnTaTion For ThE WinD EnErGY SECTor

GWec o o go w g o. GWec gog jo o, go o oo

g w ow o, g o

w g o o. W o

o o 1,500 ogo o w

, oj o, ow go,

o, w , oo,

GWec oo w g

o.

ThE MEMbErS oF GWEC rEprESEnT:

Over1,500companies,organisationsandinstitutions

o 70 o

Alltheworldsmajorwindturbinemanufacturers

99%oftheworldsmorethan100,000MW

o w ow

GLobaL WinD EnErGY CounCiL (GWEC)

rl e ho

63-65 r ao

1040 b

bg

t: 32 2 100 4029

: 32 2 546 1944

www.gw.

o@gw.

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o o o o o o

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GrEEnpEaCE inTErnaTionaL

Oo hg 5

1066 aZ a

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t: 31 20 7182000

: 31 20 5148151

www.g.og

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sco GWec, G io, dlr eo

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poo co o bWe; e; eo; eWea; G;

G; ivpc; JWea; l W; now rw l;

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vo Q W; W.

global wind energy report 2008

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