global wind energy development in a european r&d perspective

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2012-02-07 1

Global wind energy development from

a European R&D Perspective

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

WinterWind 2012, February 7, 2012 Skellefteå (S)

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•  Putting Cold Climate issues in a wider perspective •  Mainstream developments; review •  Similarities between CC and Offshore issues •  Towards a universal (= IEA, EU) Research Agenda

This presentation

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CC in perspective

•  Mainstream Politics and Industry is only impressed by GW’s and size

•  Instead, the number of people served should be accounted for

Why is it necessary to put CC issues in a wider perspective?!!Because:!

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External Conditions

•  The vast majority of wind turbines have been installed in ‘moderate’ climates

•  Remote and extreme areas are under explored and exploited

CC in perspective

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Mainstream Wind Power

2012-02-07 5

CC in perspective

Mainstream Wind Power Offshore

Hot Deserts

Remote Rural

Cold Climate

The present Research Agenda is incomplete !

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CC in perspective

•  Claim x % of offshore R&D resources for CC, hot deserts, remote& rural areas

•  Claim y% of this part for CC

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s Various types of electricity producing wind turbines

Autonomous

Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land

Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore Grid connected turbines; small scale

Hybrid systems (AWDS) Hybrid systems (W-PV)

2012-02-07 7

CC in perspective

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Bron: Arjen van der Meer, TUDelft

Photo: Jos Beurskens

E.g.: OWEZ (NL)

E.g.: Q7 (NL)

Grid connection of offshore wind farms

2012-02-07 8

CC in perspective

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Frøya. 50 kW + 50 kW

Electrical lay-out of autonomous wind diesel systems (AWDS)

AWDS developed by TUEindhoven and ECN

2012-02-07 9

CC in perspective

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s Autonomous wind turbines

Copied from National Geographic Magazine

2012-02-07 10

CC in perspective

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s Maturity of the technologies

Grid connected turbines; medium scale

Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land

Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore

Autonomous & Hybrid (W-PV)

Hybrid systems (AWDS)

0 25 50 100 75 125

0.01

0.1

1

10

Rotor diameter [m]

Rat

ed p

ower

[MW

]

Grid connected turbines; small scale

Circle areas indicate maturity

Missing link: Reliability of ‘mature’ technologies under extreme conditions

2012-02-07 11

CC in perspective

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0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1983 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Cumulative MW

MW per year

Year

Installed Wind Power in the World- Annual and Cumulative -

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

Total installed offshore wind power: 3554 MW Total number of projects: 43 Average power per project: 83 MW/project Average power of 10 smallest projects: 8.1 MW/project Average power of 10 largest projects: 198 MW/project

Market (31-12-2010)

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Main stream developments

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Source: EWEA Oceans of Opportunity

EWEA’s wind power scenarios (in GW)

Time lines displaced by 16 years !

Ann

ual i

nsta

llatio

n ra

tes

Offshore is the driver !

2012-02-07 13


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s The evolution of wind turbines"

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Up scaling

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Year China Denmark Germany India Spain Sweden UK USA2005 897 1381 1634 780 1105 1126 2172 14662006 931 1875 1848 926 1469 1138 1953 16672007 1079 850 1879 986 1648 1670 2049 16692008 1220 2277 1916 999 1837 1738 2256 16772009 1360 2368 1976 1117 1904 1974 2241 17312010 1,469 2,514 2,047 1,293 1,929 1,995 2,568 1,875

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

kW

Global Average Annual WTG in kW Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

The evolution of wind turbines"

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Average size Wind turbine (kW), installed each year

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Wind turbine capacity product cycle

Offshore

The evolution of wind turbines"

Source: DEWI Magazin

2012-02-07 16


X

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23 83 182 330 581

873 1 154

2 994 3 320 3 307

3 524 3 690

3 910 4 051

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Wind energy production (TWh) EU reference (TWh)

Source: EWEA and EC 2010


Wind energy share of EU electricity demand

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Offshore

Onshore

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Capital cost of on- and offshore wind power

EC EWEA

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Onshore Investments (€2010 bn) Offshore Investments (€2010 bn)

(€bn)

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Wind power investments

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147 419 140 544

174 174 154 151

202 694

293 306

231 198

183 373 6 374 13 931

22 458 34 945

86 731

169 550 246 175 296 548

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Onshore Offshore

Source: EWEA and EC 2010

(People)

Total 153,793 154,476 196,632 189,096 289,425 462,856 477,373 479,921

2012-02-07 20


Wind power energy sector employment

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Onshore wind (GW)

Offshore wind (GW)

Total wind energy

capacity (GW)

Average capacity

factor onshore

Average capacity

factor offshore

TWh onshore

TWh offshore

TWh total

EU-27 gross

electricity consumption

Wind power’s share of electricity demand

2020 190 40 230 26% 42.30% 433 148 581 3,690 16%

2030 250 150 400 27% 42.80% 591 562 1,154 4,051 29%

2050 275 460 735 29% 45% 699 1,813 2,512 5,000 50%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 All RES (%) Wind (%)

Sources: 1971-1989 3E/EWEA assumption: 1990-2008 Eurostat: 2009 EWEA assumption: 2010-2020 NREAPs: 2020-2030 EWEA (based on PRIMES consumption 2030: 2031-2050 EWEA).

Contribution of electricity from RES and wind energy 1970-2010 + expected contribution 2011-2050 (% of consumption)

2012-02-07 21


Installed capacity, electricity productionand share in EU demand

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s Onshore Offshore Total

Installed capacity (GW) 250 150 400

Annual installations (GW) 10 13.7 23.7

Annual investments (bn€) 8.2 17.1 25.3

Electricity production (TWh) 591 562 1,154

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Wind energy in 2030 – EWEA targets

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0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

0,5% 0,6% 0,9% 1,1%

1,5% 1,6% 1,7%

2,1% 2,3% 2,3%

2,7% 2,8%

3,2% 3,2% 3,5% 3,7%

4,1% 4,3%

5,3% 8,0%

12,9% 15,0%

15,5% 25,6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Cyprus Malta

Slovenia Slovakia Finland

Czech Republic Latvia

Luxembourg Hungary

Poland Romania Bulgaria

France Belgium

Lithuania Austria

Italy Sweden Estonia

United Kingdom Netherlands

Greece EU-27

Germany Ireland Spain

Portugal Denmark

Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

EU average 5.3%

2012-02-07 23


Wind energy’s share of national electricity demand, end 2010

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0 0 1

14 20 22 29 29

37 46 50

84 84 84 87

96 102 107 111

121 135

168 232

320 333

366 450

686

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Malta Slovenia Slovakia

Latvia Czech Republic

Romania Poland

Hungary Finland

Lithuania Bulgaria

United Kingdom Belgium

Luxembourg France

Italy Cyprus Greece Estonia Austria

Netherlands EU-27

Sweden Ireland

Germany Portugal

Spain Denmark


EU average 168 kW

2012-02-07 24


Wind energy capacity [kW] per 1000 citizens, end 2010

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0,0 0,0 0,1 0,5 0,6

1,9 2,4 2,7 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5

4,8 8,9 9,2

10,3 12,1

16,4 19,2 19,5 20,3

21,3 29,9

41,0 42,6

54,1 76,2

88,1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Malta Slovenia Slovakia

Latvia Finland

Romania Lithuania

Czech Republic Hungary Estonia

Bulgaria Poland

Sweden Cyprus Greece France Austria

Luxembourg Italy

EU-27 Ireland

UK Belgium

Spain Portugal

Netherlands Germany Denmark


EU average 19.5 MW

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Installed wind power per 1000 km², end 2010

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Source: “Global wind report – annual market update 2010” – GWEC 2011; EWEA 2011

2,6 2,8 3,7 3,9 4,5 6,6 8 10,9 13,2 18,6 26 37,3

55,6

83,8

112,7

3,5 4,8 6,5 9,7 12,9 17,3 23,1 28,5

34,4 40,5

48

56,5

64,7

75,1

84,3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rest of the world EU

Total 6.1 7.6 10.2 13.6 17.4 23.9 31.1 39.4 47.6 59.1 74.1 93.8 120.3 158.9 197.0

(GW)

2012-02-07 26


Global Cumulative wind power capacity (1996-2010)

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0,3 0,3 0,8 0,2 0,6 2,1 1,4 2,7 2,4 5,3

7,7 11,3

18,3

28,3 28,9

1 1,3 1,7 3,2 3,2 4,4 5,9

5,5 5,8

6,2

7,6

8,5

8,3

10,5 9,3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rest of the world EU

Source: “Global wind report – annual market update 2010” – GWEC 2011; EWEA 2011

Total 1.3 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 8.2 8.2 11.5 15.3 19.8 26.6 38.8 38.2

2012-02-07 27


Global annual wind power capacity (1996-2010)

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s Similarities Offshore &

Cold Climate issues

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Offshore and Cold Climate

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s R&D drivers for offshore and remote and extreme climate applications of WE

Offshore Issue Remote, extreme Foundation, grid Cost breakdown Grid, foundation

Waves, saline atm, turbulence, sea bottom, eaxtreme winds

External conditions Temperature, humidity, icing, varying soil conditions in time, turbulence (forest)

RAMS, dedicated wind turbines Wind turbne concept RAMS, dedicated CC wind turbines

3 media (soil, water, air) Support structure 3 media (soil properties highly variable, air); (perma frost, ice)

Marine weather windows Transport & assembly Arctic weather windows

Marine weather windows Accessibility for O&M Arctic weather windows

No electrical infrastruture; large scale integration on HV level

Grid connection & integration

No or poor electrical infrastructure; weak grids

Large scale operations Scale and risks Small scale & remoteness

Marine eco-systems, shipping, oil and gas safety

Nature & safety Artic (marine) eco-systems, oil and gas safety

Wind farm interaction, alternative use of oceans

Spatial planning ?

2012-02-07 29


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Offshore is motor for R&D

Cold Climate wind power technology

Dedicated cold climate R&D


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s Cost of support structures are dominant and are relatively insensitive to load

carrying capacity

The wind turbines should be as big as possible !

Offshore wind turbines

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mass ~ (D³) cross section ~ (D²) stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D

Development of advanced materials with a higher strenth to mass ratio

investment cost ~ (D³) energy output ~ (D²) COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D

For the engineer: For the economist:

Up scaling wind turbines"

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•  Extreme up scaling only possible if materials with low mass to strength ratio become available

•  Distributed aerodynamic control needed

•  More flexibility in structure to cope with (dynamic) fatigue loads

Three important consequences of extreme up scaling!

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s Up scaling: weight requirements for blades

Technology Evolution with Blade Size

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Rotor Radius (m)

Bla

de M

ass

(tn)

Gl-P HLU

Gl-P RI

Gl-Ep RI

Gl-Ep Prep

Gl-C Hybrid 1

Gl-C Hybrid 2

New Tech 1

New Tech 2

New Tech 3

REFERENCE

Ep Prep

P RI

P HLU

Hybrid

Source: UpWind; CRES, GR

2012-02-07 34


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s Wind field

Photo: Jos Beurskens

Distributed blade control necessary"

Wind turbines

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Comparison with Individual Pitch Control: •  15-25% reduction of fatigue damage equivalent load,

depending on load case •  Can add up to 30%

Wind tunnel tests on a scaled smart rotor – flapwise root bending moment with and without flap activation

Wind turbines"

Faigue load reduction bydistributed blade control"

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Thermoplastic blades

Wind turbines"

2012-02-07 37


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s Planning phase ECN O&M Tool

Validated by GL

Many licenses sold

Many wind farms

analysed

HEDEN

Ampelmann Photo: Jos Beurskens

Flight Leader concept

Harbour at sea

Operation and Maintenance

2012-02-07 38


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Photo: Jos Beurskens Foto: Jos Beurskens

Foto: Jos Beurskens

Ampelmann concept"

Operation and Maintenance; Access

2012-02-07 39


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Availability = f (reliability, accessibility)

100% accessibility (onshore)

80% accessibility

60% accessibility

40% accessibility (exposed offshore)

50

60

70

80

90

100

state-of-the-art improved highly improvedReliability of design [-]

OW

ECS

Ava

ilab

ility

[%

]

Strategy 1

Ampelmann: Hs= 2.5 m, 50 m vessel (93 %)

Access

2012-02-07 40


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•  Turbines do require ongoing maintenance •  Many locations are remote and lack onsite or accessible technical •  Support and spare parts •  Potential for small faults or maintenance •  Items lead to long downtimes •  Therefore, Staging of spare parts and •  Technical knowledge at central •  Critical to long term success

Lessons learned of small turbines in extreme climates

Source: EAPC

2012-02-07 41


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s Towards a universal CC Research

(& Implementation) Agenda

2012-02-07 42

R&D Agenda

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•  Physics of icing (accretion of ice; types of icing) •  Atlas of icing probability •  Impact on wind turbines; energy output, loads,

acoustic noise emission) •  Anti-icing and De-icing •  Safety

2012-02-07 43

R&D Agenda

And:

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s Dedicated Cold Climate wind turbines

2012-02-07 44

R&D Agenda

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•  Grid connected •  Autonomous •  Hybrid (AWDS) •  Size and capacity •  External conditions (standards)

2012-02-07 45

R&D Agenda

Identification of systems

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s External Conditions

hot & dry cold & dry humid

saline air

waves

lightning

earthquakes

soil characteristics high turbulence

complex terrain

extreme wind speed

wind classes I, II, III dusty

cold & humid

2012-02-07 46

R&D Agenda

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External Conditions

Surprises remain showing up !!

Source: EAPC

Russia

2012-02-07 47

R&D Agenda

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•  Transport & Installation •  RAMS •  O&M (Accessibility) •  Anti- & De- icing •  Foundations & Support structures •  Decommissioning

2012-02-07 48

R&D Agenda

Full integration of requirements into design

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s Requirement Solution Concepts Up scaling (Full blade pitch becomes ineffective due to large variations in the wind field in the rotor plane)

Distributed blade control with advanced (LIDAR based) control systems

Reliability Reduced number of components (central conversion unit in wind farm, direct drive generators, passive yawing)

Weight reduction Two bladed rotor (reduces rotor weight and increases rotor speed, which leeds to reduced drive train weight)

Integrated operations and design

Transport of floating components. Self erecting and installing systems

Servicebility Access technology

Maintainability Floating cantilever structures

Wind farm efficiency Movable foundations Non conventional wind farm lay outs

Sway

DOT Hydraulic conversion

2B-Energy

Stork Ultimate turbine

Lagerwey

Lagerwey

Deep Wind

Z Technologies

Ampelmann

Selsam-Sea

Topfarm

Ideol (movable foundations)

2012-02-07 49

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2012-02-07 50

Concluding remarks • Measuring EU targets in [MW’s] only, denies potential of wind

energy in areas with extreme climates and low population density •  An adopted strategic R&D and implementation Agenda, similar to

Offshore issues is needed, among others as an input for:

TPWind

WG1: Wind Resources

WG2: Wind Power Systems

WG3: WE integration

WG4: Offshore devt.

& operation

WG5: Policy

Economy

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2012-02-07 51

Thank you very much for your attention !

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2012-02-07 52

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•  Anti icing & de-icing: Innovations, integrated blade design (priority number 1)Intensification innovation and using know- how from other disciplines and technologies (aircraft, material science, physics, …)"

Priorities (1)

Dedicated cold weather wind turbine concepts

ENERCON

R&D Agenda of remote and extreme cold conditions

From: Conclusions from WinterWind 2011, Umeå (S), February 9, 2011 by Jos Beurskens

2012-02-07 53

Consequences for R&D

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•  Conditions for icing (super cooling, sublimation, (T, Humidity, V))"

•  Combination of icing conditions with other aspects: water spray (offshore), wind speed, altitude. "

•  Icing probability mapping of areas with high wind potential (ʻiso icing days/annumʼ contours)"

•  Cold climate resistant measuring instruments and associated power supply units (performance, resource assessment, ice detection, loads, heating system control"

Priorities (2)

NMI

NMI

WindREN AB

External conditions


2012-02-07 54



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•  Impact on performance (how big are ʻhiddenʼ energy losses?) "

•  Impact on loading (aerodynamically and mechanical/aerodynamically induced loads, scale effects"

•  Transport and assembly, because of poor access "

•  Operation and maintenance/access"

•  Safety, standards"

Priorities (3)

© In Situ 2008

Wind turbine concepts, assembly, O&M


2012-02-07 55



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•  Field test facilities for problem definition and verification of models"

•  Feed back of operational experiences to designers"

•  Bridging gap between meteorological aspects and wt technology impacts"

Priorities (4)

General issues


VTT

2012-02-07 56



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•  Continuous up-dating market potential based upon Mapping, Performance losses, Market developments"

•  The grid !!!! "

Priorities (5)

VTT


2012-02-07 57

